2010 NBA Free Agency: What Happens If LeBron James and Co. Stay With Their Teams

Let's journey back to 1999. The entire industrialized world was in a panic regarding the possible implications of "Y2K." Many pundits thought that the computer glitch would shut down computer systems across the world, leaving the now-computerized stock market in ruin. 

Because of computer crashes, computerized power, water, and telephone systems would freeze.  As would airline, railroad, and truck dispatch systems. Billions of dollars would be lost in an instant and the entire world would cease to exist as we knew it. 

Citizens would then go into a panic, leading to riots and mass chaos not seen since pre-civilization—it would literally be hell on earth.  

However, in the end, almost nothing happened. A few rogue computers crashed. As a whole, the world moved on to the new millennium seamlessly.

Now hold on to your skepticism because what I'm about to say is going to seem ridiculous: The 2010 NBA free agency bonanza is not unlike the "Y2K" scare.

Ever since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade signed five-year extensions in 2006 with opt-out clauses after the 2010 season (with the Cavs and Heat respectively), NBA team management and media alike have been a tizzy at the thought of an epic 2010 free agent class. 

Most in-the-know fans and Cleveland Doomsday conspiracy theorists became aware of this opt-out clause in both LeBron's and Wade's contract when LeBron "disrespected" the entire city of Cleveland by donning a Yankees hat at Jacobs Field during the 2007 ALDS. 

Fans thought: "Could he actually leave Cleveland for New York?"

Despite questions about LeBron's loyalty to Cleveland, most rumors died down when LeBron attributed wearing the hat to simply being a long-standing Yankees fan.

It was not until the United States' 2008 Olympic gold medal run that the 2010 NBA free agency bonanza rumors were taken from dormant to eruptive. In interviews throughout the Olympics, players made the same type of semi-tongue-in-cheek comments they always do about playing with one another someday.

Only, this time, teams took them seriously. They became hell-bent on making it happen. 

The New York Knicks built their entire post-Isiahcolypse plan around bringing in stars during the summer of 2010 and pairing them with a fun-loving run-n'-gun coach in Mike D'Antoni. 

The Chicago Bulls quietly built an unbelievably talented young nucleus, relying on both incredible luck (winning the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery) and organizational savvy (being patient with Joakim Noah during his early struggles, various trades, not resigning Ben Gordon, etc.).

The Los Angeles Clippers did the same. One could argue they did a better job than Chicago of assembling young talent.

(Side note: Obviously the only caveat preventing the Clips from being a LeBron/Wade/Bosh/etc. favorite is repugnant owner Donald Sterling. All NBA fans should despise him not just for being a cheap and racist imbecile, but for also depriving the NBA of both Kobe and LeBron playing in Los Angeles at the same time).

The Miami Heat surrounded Dwyane Wade with trash and expiring contracts for the past two seasons.

The New Jersey Nets are a team full of trash and expiring contracts (minus Brook Lopez and Devin Harris). However, they do have a shiny new multi-billionaire Russian owner and hip-hop mogul (and LeBron friend) Jay-Z to make the team enticing to any player looking to expand his global brand. 

Regardless of how these teams got here, their goal was the same: Win a NBA Championship by signing a stable of superstars.

With reports saying that either Miami or Chicago is on the precipice of creating a three-headed NBA monster, it looks more likely than ever that one team will actually reach its long-awaited and formerly farfetched goal. 

With bloggers, columnists, and talking heads all giving their "What happens if LeBron, Wade, Dirk, Bosh, etc. signs with X team and hell breaks loose" theory, I decided to give my own, completely opposite theory.

What if, like "Y2K," nothing happens? 

Meaning that, what happens if LeBron decides to take the extra $30 million to stay home in Cleveland and most others follow suit?

I mean, that scenario is just as possible as the three-headed super team scenarios, right?

The only superstar who is assuredly leaving his current digs is current Raptors forward Chris Bosh (unless you count Atlanta's Joe Johnson as a superstar, which I don't). Even Bosh is a second-rate superstar on his best nights. 

Outside of Bosh and Johnson, it is entirely possible that LeBron, Wade, Dirk, Amar'e, and Pierce all stay with their current teams.

In the aftermath of an incredibly underwhelming NBA Draft on the entertainment scale (Greivis Vasquez aside); the pessimist in me feels that we could be in store for another disappointment in free agency.

However, in the event that the NBA version of "Y2K" happens, the reactions could be just as interesting as the free agency period is disappointing. With that said, here are six things that would happen if "nothing" happens in free agency:

1. Chris Paul Gets Traded to Cleveland.

No matter how much loyalty LeBron James has to Akron and to Cavalier fans, Cleveland has to guarantee major roster changes for LeBron to justify coming back. With the Hornets' trade of Mo Peterson, they are currently far under the NBA's luxury tax. They now have no pressure to move superstar point guard Chris Paul.

However, Paul's "openness" to a trade and other teams' desperation to get a talent like CP3 puts the writing on the wall. A base of Mo Williams and J.J. Hickson should get the two teams talking, but New Orleans wants any team which takes Paul to also take Emeka Okafor's albatross of a contract. Witht hat, either a third team or Antawn Jamison would need to get involved. 

Overall, the move makes sense for both New Orleans (a team going nowhere) and Cleveland (a team desperate to go somewhere ).  If LeBron re-signs, look for Paul in a Cavs uniform next season.

2. Chris Bosh signs with Miami.

Bosh has made it inherently obvious that his first choice during free agency is following LeBron James wherever he goes.  With Toronto drafting North Carolina product Ed Davis with the No. 13 overall pick, it makes Cleveland's only trade asset (forward J.J. Hickson) insignificant to the Raptors. 

In addition, ESPN's Ric Bucher is reporting that Bosh will not follow LeBron to Cleveland if King James returns to his throne. 

That leaves only one logical option for Bosh in the event LeBron stays in Cleveland:  Miami.

While Chicago has promising young talent, its true ceiling can only be reached with a duo of superstars heading to the Windy City. Derrick Rose is not fully developed enough as a player to be an unequivocal team leader of a championship contender. Bosh has proved he is best suited for a second banana role.

In South Beach, Bosh would not only get to team with the NBA's third best player in Dwyane, but also moves to a state with zero income tax and incredible weather. With Miami having upwards of $40 million in salary cap room, the Heat could then fill in the rest of their roster with average to above-average role players. They instantly become one of the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

3. Chicago settles for a Joe Johnson-Carlos Boozer Tandem.

Otherwise known as the broke man's LeBron and Bosh. 

Despite Chicago's utter disappointment in the event it lands neither Bosh nor James, a Rose-Johnson-Boozer trio still instantly vaults them into NBA elite status. 

Remember, we are working under the assumption that almost every player of true consequence is staying with their current teams. The more likely Joe Johnson-Amar'e Stoudemire duo is out of the equation here. 

With Johnson, the Bulls get a 29 year-old, four-time All-Star who is coming off his first appearance on an All-NBA team. One could argue that Johnson has already hit his peak. That's a valid point.  However, there aren't too many guys in the NBA who can give you 20-5-5 on a nightly basis. Joe Johnson is one of those few.

With Jazz forward Carlos Boozer, the Bulls get another multi-time All-Star and former All NBA selection. Injuries slowed Boozer during a horrible 2008-2009 campaign and ruined his plan to be the only marquee free agent during the 2009 offseason. However, the 28 year-old forward rebounded with a fantastic 2009-2010 season. 

Regardless of whether you feel either Boozer or Johnson is worth a max contract (I don't whatsoever), both will receive them this offseason—the only question is by whom.

4.  New York trades for Gilbert Arenas. Then signs the craptastic duo of Rudy Gay and David Lee to max contracts.

That sound you heard is the entire Knicks' fan base projectile vomiting like Farva in the movie "Super Troopers."

A scenario with most major free agents staying put is absolutely the worst-case scenario for Knicks management and fans alike. 

On the plus side, the Knicks would go from a 29-win team to a 45-win team. On the negative side, the team would spend well over $250 million and become a perennial No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Two years ago, the Knicks and Cavs were the only two teams on LeBron James' radar.  GM Donnie Walsh and coach Mike D'Antoni watched a team full of scrubs take the floor every night with an above-it-all arrogance because they were the favorites for LeBron's services in 2010.

Two years later, with Miami, Chicago, and Los Angeles all giving King James a better chance to win championships, the Knicks best plan is to start with Plan D (Joe Johnson) and work its way down.

But only if Plan D also involves firing Donnie Walsh.

5. Both Ray Allen and Josh Childress contracts worth $9-million plus per season.

While the Knicks are the ultimate losers of a scenario in which all major free agents stay with their current teams, middling free agents like Boston Celtics guard Ray Allen and Olympiacos Piraeus/Atlanta Hawks guard/forward Josh Childress become the ultimate winners. 

As it currently stands, Allen is nothing better than a mid-level exception free agent who contenders will covet once the dust settles on the major players.

Childress, on the other hand, seemingly has just one suitor (Atlanta Hawks) upon his return to the states. Because of his restricted free agent status, one could assume teams are just keeping interest close to their vests. Yet you would think some rumblings would have leaked by now.

However, if both men are patient and superstars stay put with their current teams, Allen and Childress could hit the jackpot.

Spurred by being spurned, teams' desperation levels would be at an all-time high. So what stops the Clippers from offering five-years, $55 million to Childress? Or New Jersey offering Allen three-years, $30 million?

In the event players stay with their teams, expect all hell to break loose. Expect middling free agents to benefit handsomely.

6. The Los Angeles Lakers win the 2010-2011 NBA Championship.

Regardless of the team's flaws (and there are surprisingly more than you think), the greatest beneficiary team-wise of an apocalyptically boring 2010 NBA offseason is the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. 

As rosters currently stand, the Lakers are by far the favorites to three-peat during the 2010-2011 season. If no major changes happen, the champs should cruise to a third straight title.

However, Kobe Bryant's chances at a second career three-peat could instantly vanish before his eyes if either Miami's or Chicago's three-headed dream scenario happens. 

Whether you are of the ilk that a champion is a champion until dethroned (as I am) or not, you would have to agree that a Bosh-Wade-LeBron or a Bosh-Rose-LeBron combination dethrones L.A. as "favorites" for the 2011 NBA championship. 

In the event the Lakers and either super-team meet in the NBA Finals, we might actually settle this LeBron vs. Kobe debate once in for all.

No matter what, I think we can all agree (unless you're a Cavs fan) that the NBA is better off if pandemonium ensues. 

Despite most NBA fans rooting for turbulence, I am reminded of the immortal words of the Rolling Stones when pondering the 2010 NBA Free Agency bonanza:

"You can't always get what you want."