NBA Draft Boom or Bust: Potential Best/Worst Case Scenarios for Lottery Picks

Taylor SmithAnalyst IJune 24, 2010

True or false: the NBA Draft is Thursday night.


With the World Cup, Wimbledon, the recent U.S. Open, the conclusion of the exciting NBA Finals, and the league's upcoming free agency bonanza, the draft has flown under the radar a bit.

However, the draft is just a few hours away, and speculation continues to swirl about potential draft-day trades, as well as the obligatory "Who goes where?" debate.

With all the prognostication, why not try a little predicting of our own?

We'll go through a few of the players expected to be taken relatively near the top of tomorrow night's draft, and give them a best/worst case scenario based on NBA counterparts.

Got it?

Good. Let's go.

John Wall

Best case comparison: Derrick Rose/Russell Westbrook

The parallels between Wall and Rose are the ones most commonly drawn, and with good reason.

All three players have great size (Rose: 6'3", 190; Westbrook: 6'3", 190; Wall: 6'4", 195) to go along with superior athleticism. Combine that with great court vision and great handles and you've got yourself an ideal point guard.

Like Rose has with Chicago, Wall will become a cornerstone for the Wizards and should help make Washington an attractive destination in the next few years.

Wall's jump shot could also stand to improve, similarly to Rose and Westbrook coming out of college.

Worst case comparison: Steve Francis? 

There isn't really a solid worst-case comparison for Wall. Francis was an off-guard stuck in a point guard's body. Wall is a straight-up point guard. 

I suppose the worst case Wall is a worse version of Rose. There.

Evan Turner

Best case comparison: Brandon Roy

Roy is an under-control player with the ability to get to the rim as well as create his own shot inside the arc.

Turner has similar tools and physical build. Turner was extremely well-rounded at Ohio State, and he could fill a box score better than Roy at the next level.

Some question how well Iguodala and Turner will blend playing at the same time, but the Sixers would be ecstatic if he proves to be the reliable scorer that Roy has become.

Worst case scenario: Corey Brewer

Brewer evidently learned to shoot from distance last season, as he went from shooting 19 percent beyond the arc as a rookie to 34 percent from deep last season.

Brewer is still obviously very young and still has plenty of room to grow into a very reliable overall player. Not a terrible worst case for Turner.

DeMarcus Cousins

Best case scenario: Al Jefferson

Cousins is a very polished offensive player, and his size should allow him to be a punishing force on the interior. Cousins is taller than Jefferson, but should be able to put up similar double-double numbers.

However, major questions exist regarding his attitude and the head on his shoulders.

By all accounts, he's talented enough to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Worst case scenario: Derrick Coleman

This one is easy.

Coleman was an immensely talented player with a similar physical build, and his career was derailed due in large part to lack of enthusiasm for basketball and conditioning.

It's not a stretch to imagine Cousins eventually traveling down that unfortunate path.

Coleman was the No. 1 overall pick in 1990 by New Jersey and made only one All-Star team.

Derrick Favors

Best case scenario: Kevin Garnett

Favors is lanky just like Garnett, and is still extremely raw on the offensive end. A lack of reps in his only season at Georgia Tech certainly didn't help.

He has good size at 6'10" and 250 lbs, and is an explosive athlete. His potential defensive prowess has scouts raving, and he's one of the best rebounders available here. Sound familiar?

Worst case scenario: Tyrus Thomas

There have been some big man failures at the top of previous NBA Drafts, and Thomas is one of them (so far). As expected, Thomas has been a decent shot-blocker, but the rest of his game has yet to arrive.

However, he's still just 23, and Favors could be facing a similar development.

Favors doesn't turn 19 until July, and likely won't be a guy to contribute much early on.

Wesley Johnson

Best case scenario: Scottie Pippen

Johnson is a wiry, rangy small forward with a steady offensive game. He's a stellar athlete and has the ability to make a name for himself on the defensive end of the floor. 

Like Turner, he's extremely well-rounded, and it wouldn't come as a surprise to see him fill up a box score at the next level.

His age—he's all ready 23—could be a bit of a deterrent, though.

Worst case scenario: inept version of Trevor Ariza

Ariza isn’t a great offensive player by any means, so I suppose this is what a worst- case scenario for Johnson would be. Even if the offensive game doesn’t come along (or is slow to advance), Johnson should be able to be a versatile defender.

His length allows him to guard at least three positions.

For comprehensive NBA Draft coverage and much, much more, head over to NBA Soup.



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