Dirk Nowitzki Isn't on a Fast Break Out of Dallas, Despite Opt Out

Following the 2004 season, Dallas Mavericks point guard Steve Nash bolted the Lone Star State for greener pastures in the form of a max contract in Phoenix.

Dallas, which had seen Nash develop and blossom into an All-Star caliber point guard that could run the fast break better than most of his peers, were helpless as he returned to his original team.

Now, six seasons later, the other young, budding star on that team, forward Dirk Nowitzki, is in a similar position, as reports have surfaced saying that the versatile European big man who has cemented himself as the face and identity of the Mavericks will choose to opt out of his contract prior to the July 1 deadline.

While the situation may look similar on some fronts, unlike Nash, Nowitzki can’t run the fast break, and he won’t be running out of town anytime soon.

Following the reports that Nowitzki would opt out of the final year of his contract to join what is widely considered to be the best free agent class in the history of the NBA, the Mavericks brass seemed to remain unfazed.

According to multiple people within the Dallas front office, even if Nowitzki does opt out, the approach for the team will not change going into the offseason. That is, the team will look re-sign their star forward and will continue to try to develop a championship caliber team around him.

Mavericks President Donnie Nelson insisted that the team’s plans will not change, regardless of the action that Nowitzki takes in the coming weeks:

"Whether he opts out or not, it doesn’t effect anything as far as what we can do and plan to do. Nothing has changed."

This is the general consensus amongst everyone that matters in the decision-making process down in Dallas.

Granted, optimism and expectations do not guarantee a thing in the business world, particularly in professional sports, where millions of dollars can be thrown at a single player on a whim.

However, the excessive confidence that the Mavericks will be fine and that everything will work out between the two parties is a very good sign, as it strongly suggests that both sides are looking to work something out.

While it may seem crazy that the Dallas front office could be so relaxed when their star player and undoubtedly the best player in the history of the organization is willing to head out to the open market, upon closer examination, both sides would be crazy not to approach Nowitzki’s contract situation in this manner.

Okay maybe crazy is too strong of a term, but you get the point.

Bottom line is that, by opting out and negotiating a new contract in this fashion, both Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks stand to gain a lot from the situation.

For Nowitzki, the motivation is clear.

The NBA will be negotiating a new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) soon, and by opting out and signing a brand new contract, Nowitzki will be able to lock in his salary and contract details into the terms of the current CBA, which is appealing to the big man because it is widely expected that the ceiling for player salaries will decrease once the new CBA is signed.

In addition, Nowitzki’s new contract could include language that would give him a no-trade clause, something that only one other player (Kobe Bryant) in the NBA has.

Under the current rules of the CBA, a no-trade clause cannot be added to an existing contract, and that includes extensions. So even if Nowitzki were to sign the maximum three-year extension with Dallas, the team would be unable to include a no-trade clause.

The third, and possibly most important reason for Nowitzki to opt out and re-sign, would be that the terms of the new deal, if structured properly, would allow the Mavericks more wiggle room with which to acquire that second superstar that the team needs to push the Mavericks over the top.

It is believed by most in the NBA that, in order to seriously compete for a title, a team must have one superstar and then at least one other near-superstar sidekick.

Los Angeles has Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol; the Boston Celtics have Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, and Kevin Garnett; and the Phoenix Suns have Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire.

All three of those teams are in their respective conference finals, and all three still have a chance to represent their conference in the NBA Finals.

The largest contract that Dallas could sign Nowitzki to is a four-year, $95 million deal. If structured correctly, the new deal would presumably pay Nowitzki less than the $21.5 million he is scheduled to be paid next season under his current contract.

The NBA currently has a rule called the “over-36 rule,” and as Nowitzki will be 32 by the time free agency rolls around, the rule kicks into effect, and essentially prevents any team from offering him a five- or six-year contract, limiting the length of any contract he signs to a maximum of four years.

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has said in the past that, in conversations with his star player, Nowitzki has said that he would be willing to sign a new deal if it meant helping the team:

"Well, I can see the circumstances where he would opt out but not necessarily leave the franchise…Dirk [Nowitzki] told me that if he could help the team get better, he would sign a different deal. So we made the decision to see what was going to be out there and how things played out and work together."

It is expected that, while he will still be compensated handsomely, Nowitzki would sign a deal for slightly less than the $95 million maximum he is permitted.

While it is unrealistic to expect LeBron James to land in Dallas (although nothing is impossible, especially with a dedicated owner such as Cuban) because Cleveland is unlikely to participate in a sign-and-trade scenario, and while Dallas would still be over the cap even with a new deal for Nowitzki, the extra cash would allow Dallas to negotiate a sign-and-trade for somebody like Joe Johnson, a star player who appears to be better suited for the role of the sidekick as opposed to the main superstar.

A lineup featuring Nowitzki, Johnson, and returning point guard Jason Kidd would be a formidable one, and, assuming Dallas used their mid-level exception on another valuable piece and drafted well, the team could have a decent window to seriously compete for the championship.

While Nowitzki could simply sign a three-year extension and simplify the entire process, the advantages provided by opting out and then re-signing with the team greatly outweigh any perceived advantages of simply signing an extension.

Assuming Nowitzki truly wants to win a championship in the city of Dallas and the Mavericks front office is truly committed to building a title contender around Nowitzki, then it would be borderline crazy for the two sides not to pursue this opportunity.

A brand new contract would give Nowitzki the financial security he is seeking as well as the opportunity to ensure that he stays in Dallas for a long time, and a new deal would give the front office the flexibility it needs to pursue another top flight player to help push this team over the top.

For those of you still worried at the thought of Nowitzki bolting for greener pastures somewhere else, remember that, unlike his one-time teammate Steve Nash, Nowitzki has spent his entire career in Dallas, as opposed to just a few seasons.

Dallas is home for Nowitzki, and, based on his past comments, it doesn’t sound like he’s getting ready to leave anytime soon.

Besides, Nowitzki can’t run a fast break.

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