Washington Taking Bigger Risk Than One May Think

Late yesterday afternoon, word got out that the Wizards have closed a deal to resign 32 year old All-Star Antawn Jamison to a four year deal worth $50 million dollars.  They already have Caron Butler locked in to a five year contract worth $50 million.  The last of Washington’s version of the “Big Three” to sign is Agent Zero, Gilbert Arenas.  One of the sentiments Arenas had made clear was that he wanted Jamison back as a Wizard.  Wish granted.  Now, all indications point to the Wizards and Arenas coming into agreement for a six year deal worth $100 million.  It should be noted that the three will take up about 65% of the salary cap each year, which means Washington will rely on young players and cheap veterans to fill their needs.

Washington is taking an enormous risk.  They have decided that they are not going to pursue any of the upcoming big name free agents in the next two or three years; it’s financially impossible.  They have made the decision that if they are going to get to the championship, it is going to be with these three guys.  They feel that they are moving in the right direction, ignoring the warning signs that have been blatantly obvious over the last couple of years.  Some of the warning signs include the fact that Gilbert Arenas has had two major knee surgeries in seven months; Antawn Jamison has also been under the knife for knee surgery; and Caron Butler, the most durable of the three, has seen his number of games played decrease each of the past four seasons (77, 75, 63, to 58).  Yet somehow, Washington feels that this is the right mix and they are sticking to it.

There is no question that when the three play together, they are a force.  But two things need to be considered.  The first being that in the four consecutive years that they have made the playoffs, they have been bounced in the first round three straight times and swept in the second round once.  This isn’t a team that is on the brink of winning a championship; it has major issues when it gets to the playoffs.  I will grant you that one year, Arenas missed the Cleveland series and this year he was playing hurt.  However, their problem wasn’t the big three.  Their downfall was lack of defense and bench scoring.  By locking up most of the money in the big three, the Wizards will need to sign cheap free agents who can come in and play consistent defense to have any shot at advancing in the playoffs. 

The second thing to consider is the age of Jamison.  Name me a power forward in the league over the age of 32 that is dominating (Let me rephrase; a power forward that has gotten better from age 32 onward).  Similar to how people talked about Phoenix having a “window” to make it to the Finals, the Wizards have now put themselves on the clock and have a limited timeframe.  There is no way that Jamison will continue to produce at the level he is right now in 2011.  The gamble that the Wizards are essentially taking is that they will make their run in the next two, maximum three years. 

The only way this will work is if a series of events all coincide at the same time.  First, and most importantly, the three need to stay healthy for the entire season and playoffs.  Second, they need to sign defensive oriented players, such as James Posey or Kurt Thomas like Boston and San Antonio did last season.  Third, they need rapid development from their young guys; Nick Young, Andray Blatche and Brendan Haywood.  Fourth, they must get consistent production off the bench.  Finally, the coaching staff needs to stress defense each and every game.  They have yet to do that and it has been the biggest reason for the downfall; more hurtful than injuries. 

Unfortunately, I feel those are too many factors that have to go right all at once and I don’t see it happening.  To make matters worse, the franchise has now locked itself up for the foreseeable future.  If it turns out that Washington never makes it to the finals with this group, the fans of the nation's capital will look back to a wasted opportunity of riding a young superstar to glory. 

This whole situation here in Washington reminded me of a similar experience that I went through.  I was driving on my way to a destination and had the slightest inkling that I had missed my exit.  Instead of stopping and turning around to go back and check, I kept going.  I passed a few other signs that if I read properly, would have pointed me back to the right route.  But I kept going.  Stubbornly, I kept driving.  Finally, 30 minutes later, I came to the end of the road and realized that I had to turn around and go back and pretty much start all over.  Had I just seen the warning signs, I would have made it to where I had to be on time. 

As a fan, I just hope that Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards know where they’re going; or have a nice navigation system.