Fantasy Football Week 12: Matt Camp's Week 12 Preview

It seemed a little too quiet in the world of fantasy football Sunday morning leading into the Week 11 games on the NFL schedule. Other than Rob Gronkowski’s lung issue, the injuries were pretty light and the inactives were short on surprises. The balance didn’t take long to shift. 

The first and perhaps biggest injury of the Sunday afternoon slate came when A.J. Green wound up in the locker room and ruled out after just two snaps due to a hamstring issue. Later, his teammate, Giovani Bernard, suffered a torn ACL, which will put an end to his season, according to head coach Marvin Lewis (via Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com). Luckily, Green’s injury is a strain that should allow him to return this season, per Lewis. 

After cutting Christine Michael last week, the Seattle Seahawks lost C.J. Prosise to a fractured scapula that will keep him out until the playoffs in the “best-case scenario,” according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Luckily, Thomas Rawls returned to action for the first time since Week 2 and will now lead Seattle's backfield down the stretch. 

The Philadelphia Eagles took a terrible loss at Seattle and saw way too many injuries, especially in their backfield. Ryan Mathews is “day-to-day,” according to head coach Doug Pederson (via Alex Smith of PhiladelphiaEagles.com), with what ESPN’s Adam Caplan reports is an MCL sprain. Pederson also confirmed that Darren Sproles suffered a rib fracture that will keep him out of early-week practice. Wendell Smallwood could be leading the way in Week 12.

Plenty more injuries are covered throughout this look at the waiver wire, but one player who won’t be easy to replace this week is Andrew Luck. After Monday’s practice, head coach Chuck Pagano said Luck was in the concussion protocol, which puts his status in doubt for Thursday night’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, per Kevin Bowen of Colts.com. 

Luckily, no teams are on bye in Week 12, so you’ll have more options to choose from to replace the injured players in your lineup.

Quarterbacks

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Waiver Wire 

Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Percent Owned: ESPN – 17.0, Yahoo – 24.0

If we’re starting with Tannehill, you know it’s not a great week for streamers. In Miami’s comeback victory in Los Angeles, Tannehill had just 172 yards with two touchdowns and an interception on 24-of-34 passing and 19 rushing yards on two attempts. Luckily, he has a much better matchup at home in Week 12 with the San Francisco 49ers. 

No team gave up more fantasy production to the quarterback position than the 49ers in Week 11. Tom Brady got them for 280 yards and four touchdowns. In the last four weeks, the 49ers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While Miami could easily let Jay Ajayi carry the offense with a favorable matchup of his own, Tannehill will still get his chances to take advantage of a beatable defense. 

Week 12 Projection: 255-265 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 18 rushing yards

Carson Wentz, PHI

Percent Owned: ESPN – 35.1, Yahoo – 32.0

A short memory should help if you’re deciding to go with Wentz this week. His Week 11 performance was not memorable, and the Philadelphia Eagles would certainly like to block out all the injuries they suffered in the loss. Wentz connected on 23 of 45 attempts for 218 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Wentz and the Eagles have a chance to right the ship when the Green Bay Packers make their second trip to the NFC East in as many weeks. Kirk Cousins torched the Packers for 375 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday Night Football. In Week 10, Marcus Mariota threw for 295 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers. The ineptitude of Green Bay’s defense gives Wentz an opportunity to produce solid fantasy numbers. 

Week 12 Projection: 265-275 passing yards, 2 touchdowns

The Matchup Men

As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players who are helped or hurt by their matchups. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.

Matchup Bumps

Tom Brady, NE (at NYJ)

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at IND)

Russell Wilson, SEA (at TB)

Dak Prescott, DAL (vs. WAS)

Ryan Tannehill, MIA (vs. SF)

Carson Wentz, PHI (vs. GB)

Matchup Concerns

Tyrod Taylor, BUF (vs. JAC)

Matt Ryan, ATL (vs. ARI)

Philip Rivers, SD (at HOU)

Alex Smith, KC (at DEN)

Matthew Stafford, DET (vs. MIN)

Running Backs

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Waiver Wire 

Wendell Smallwood, PHI

Percent Owned: ESPN – 2.3, Yahoo – 5.0

As discussed in the intro, the Eagles saw both Ryan Mathews (knee) and Darren Sproles (rib) go down during an ugly loss to the Seahawks in Week 11. Smallwood stepped in to pick up 48 yards on 13 carries and chip in four receptions for 31 yards on five targets while on the field for a season-high 48 percent of the snaps. 

Neither Mathews nor Sproles is a lock to play in Week 12, although they will have an extra day to get ready with the game on Monday night. Depending on who’s in and who’s out, Smallwood could be a big part of the game plan. There seems to be more optimism about Sproles, so Smallwood may end up leading the team in carries. Volume could be more than enough to consider starting him this week. 

Week 12 Projection: To be determined based on the statuses of Mathews and Sproles

Mike Gillislee, BUF

Percent Owned: ESPN – 26.2, Yahoo – 25.0

Will we actually see Gillislee play in place of LeSean McCoy this week or is this a similar situation to earlier in the season when McCoy played through a hamstring in Week 7 despite not being near 100 percent? When McCoy did finally sit out Week 8, Gillislee had his best game with 85 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries against the New England Patriots. 

According to Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com, when asked about McCoy’s status following surgery to fix a dislocated thumb, head coach Rex Ryan said, “We’ll see how he progresses through the week.” McCoy does have a chance to play this week, but Gillislee would be the top option if McCoy can’t go, so think of him as insurance for one of the best fantasy backs in the league.

Week 12 Projection: To be determined based on McCoy’s status

Adrian Peterson, MIN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 28.5, Yahoo – 31.0

Before updating you on Peterson’s status and fantasy value, just know that unless you have an injured reserve spot or are at or near the top of your standings, picking up Peterson is foolish. If every matchup from now until the start of the fantasy playoffs could be your last, Peterson shouldn’t be on your radar. 

I bring his name back into the fantasy conversation because he has a chance to return to action by mid-to-late December, according to Ben Goessling of ESPN.com. That would likely put him back on the field by Week 15 at the earliest, which is right in the thick of the fantasy playoffs. Considering Jerick McKinnon is averaging 2.9 yards per carry and Matt Asiata is right in front of him at 3.1, Peterson’s return could provide a big boost to the Vikings and your playoff starting lineup. 

Week 12 Projection: OUT

The Matchup Men 

Matchup Bumps

Jay Ajayi, MIA (vs. SF)

Rashad Jennings, NYG (at CLE)

David Johnson, ARI (at ATL)

Spencer Ware, KC (at DEN)

Doug Martin, TB (vs. SEA)

Matchup Concerns

Devonta Freeman, ATL (vs. ARI)

Jonathan Stewart, CAR (at OAK)

DeMarco Murray, TEN (at CHI)

Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower, NO (vs. LA)

Carlos Hyde, SF (at MIA)

Jeremy Hill, CIN (at BAL)

Jordan Howard, CHI (vs. TEN)

Wide Receivers

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Waiver Wire 

Tyler Boyd, CIN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 5.1, Yahoo – 6.0

Brandon LaFell, CIN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 11.0, Yahoo – 11.0

No one can replace A.J. Green. Unfortunately, the Cincinnati Bengals will try to do just that after Green’s hamstring injury in Week 11. While the injury doesn’t look season-ending, which was the concern in initial reports, it doesn’t mean Green will return to action quickly. So who do the Bengals turn to with Green sidelined?

If you go by the Week 11 numbers, the answer is Boyd. He had one of the best games of his rookie season with six receptions on eight targets for 54 yards and his first-career touchdown against the Buffalo Bills. Veteran Brandon LaFell posted four receptions for 32 yards on nine targets. LaFell outsnapped Boyd, 95-74 percent. 

In the last three games, Boyd has been the better player, with 13 receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown on 19 targets. During that same time, LaFell caught six of 14 targets for 47 yards and no touchdowns. With Giovani Bernard (torn ACL) also out, both Boyd and LaFell have a lot of targets to make up and both may be viable, although I’d lean toward Boyd as the younger, hotter hand. 

Boyd’s Week 12 Projection: 6 receptions, 62 yards

LaFell’s Week 12 Projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards

Tajae Sharpe, TEN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 14.8, Yahoo – 12.0

As the Tennessee Titans have more success throwing the ball, so does the fantasy expansion of their offense. Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker have been the obvious starts to go along with Marcus Mariota, but Sharpe’s presence has been felt in the last three games. 

Sharpe caught four of seven targets for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Week 11 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. He posted three catches for 68 yards and a touchdown on four targets the week before in a win over the Green Bay Packers. His return to relevance started with four catches for 58 yards on eight targets in San Diego. Even though he’s behind Matthews in snaps, he’s consistently ahead of Kendall Wright. Try to catch lightning in a bottle before the Week 13 bye for Tennessee.

Week 12 Projection: 5 receptions, 69 yards

Pierre Garcon, WAS

Percent Owned: ESPN – 29.9, Yahoo – 23.0

Sometimes a name from the past resurfaces and becomes fantasy-relevant for a little while. Garcon fits that description after posting his biggest game of the season in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers. He saw seven targets and caught six of them for 116 yards and only his second touchdown of the season while playing 76 percent of the snaps. 

Garcon has at least six receptions, 67 yards and seven targets in four of his last five games and led the team’s wide receivers in snaps over that span. Jamison Crowder has been the best fantasy option in the receiving corps outside of Jordan Reed, but DeSean Jackson’s a shell of himself thanks to multiple injuries. Getting a piece of this offense is a wise idea, and Garcon is right in the middle of it all. 

Week 12 Projection: 6 receptions, 73 yards

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Jarvis Landry/DeVante Parker, MIA (vs. SF)

Rishard Matthews/Tajae Sharpe, TEN (at CHI)

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (at ATL)

Antonio Brown, PIT (at IND)

Demaryius Thomas, DEN (vs. KC)

Jamison Crowder, WAS (at DAL)

Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree, OAK (vs. CAR)

Jordan Matthews, PHI (vs. GB)

Odell Beckham/Sterling Shepard, NYG (at CLE)

Jordy Nelson, GB (at PHI)

Matchup Concerns

Golden Tate, DET (vs. MIN)

Tyrell Williams, SD (at HOU)

Tight Ends

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Waiver Wire 

Jared Cook, GB

Percent Owned: ESPN – 2.7, Yahoo – 12.0

Are you ready for more Cook hype? For once, he backed it up, although it wasn’t like he had much buzz coming into his first game back since suffering an ankle injury in Week 3. Cook blew up with six receptions on 11 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown in Green Bay’s loss to the Washington Redskins. With a 62-31 percent lead in snaps over Richard Rodgers, the Packers clearly wanted Cook out there in a big role.

It’s fair to question Cook’s value after a great performance in his first game back. The Packers need someone who can work the seam and get open with some speed, and Cook checks those boxes. Will he be a consistent player on a team that has a lot of receiver talent? Probably not to the level he played at in Week 11, but he should stay in the mix since the Packers need to stick with what works.

Week 12 Projection: 5 receptions, 69 yards

Ladarius Green, PIT

Percent Owned: ESPN – 14.3, Yahoo – 12.0

Green is a top waiver add for another week despite going catchless against the Cleveland Browns in Week 11. He saw just two targets, although he nearly had a touchdown on his lone red-zone target. 

Is Green a safe grab off the waiver wire? If you’re looking for a regular, somewhat boring addition to your team, Green isn’t your guy. He has a chance to be a dangerous red-zone threat and possibly more to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but as we’ve seen in the last two weeks, it takes time (and weather to cooperate). Green gets another chance to produce Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts. 

Week 12 Projection: 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 touchdown

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Jason Witten, DAL (vs. WAS)

Antonio Gates, SD (at HOU)

Julius Thomas, JAC (at BUF)

Gary Barnidge, CLE (vs. NYG)

Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. GB)

Eric Ebron, DET (vs. MIN)

Kyle Rudolph, MIN (at DET)

Vance McDonald, SF (at MIA)

Matchup Concerns

Austin Hooper, ATL (vs. ARI)

Tyler Eifert, CIN (at BAL)

Coby Fleener, NO (vs. LA)

Defenses

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. ARI)

Percent Owned: ESPN – 7.4, Yahoo – 12.0

While not known for their defense, the Falcons come out of their bye having scored 24 points in their last four games. They get a boost in value from this week’s matchup with the visiting Arizona Cardinals. Over the last four weeks, Arizona gave up the most points to fantasy defenses thanks to 14 sacks, three interceptions, three lost fumbles and a touchdown. This matchup is a target for defensive streamers. 

Week 12 Projection: 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 18-20 points allowed

Buffalo Bills (vs. JAC)

Percent Owned: ESPN – 44.9, Yahoo – 55.0

If you can get the Bills on your roster this week, they should come through in a great matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Bills have been a poor fantasy defense over the last month, the Jaguars have been a big help for opposing defenses by giving up seven sacks, four interceptions, six lost fumbles and a touchdown. That explains why fantasy defenses scored the seventh-most points against them in their last four games.

Week 12 Projection: 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 15-18 points allowed

Kickers

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecasted will be featured in this section.

Josh Lambo, SD

Percent Owned: ESPN – 35.9, Yahoo – 20.0

Because Lambo and the San Diego Chargers are coming off their Week 11 bye, Lambo’s ownership percentage dropped in a big way, which makes sense since he wasn’t worth stashing away. Now that he’s back, it’s a good time to snatch Lambo up considering he’s scored 35 points over his last four games. He’s missed just two of his 23 field-goal attempts this season.

Sebastian Janikowski, OAK

Percent Owned: ESPN – 36.9, Yahoo – 25.0

With three more extra points and two field goals against the Houston Texans on Monday night, Janikowski has scored 27 fantasy points over the last four weeks. In those three games, he racked up nine extra points and six field goals. He’s a busy kicker on a very good team, so he’s a good grab if you’re looking for help.

Camp's Corner

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With little time left in the fantasy regular season, take a look at your roster to determine if you have any wasted space. 

If you focus on the players at the end of your personal depth chart, decide if they will ever contribute. Is it a player like Isaiah Crowell, who’s failed to rush for more than 29 yards in five of his last six games? When are you going to use him with confidence seeing those numbers and the situation not looking any better in Cleveland? Could that spot be better used on a handcuff to one of your top running backs?

You may have been riding with a top quarterback like Andrew Luck or Drew Brees without much need for a backup. With Luck in concussion protocol, his owners won’t have a choice but to hit the waiver wire since his chances of playing on Thursday look bleak. Backing up someone like Brees isn’t a bad idea just in case he suffers an injury of his own. 

How you manage your roster at this point in the season will depend on your playoff standing. If you’re comfortable with your record and know you’re heading to the playoffs, it might be easier to find the room for a backup QB. If you’re clinging to your playoff life, the luxury of precautionary backups may not be an option. 

Assess accordingly.

Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.

Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp