NBA Rookie Progress Meter: Devin Booker Joining Club of 1st-Year Elites
The 2015 NBA draft will be well-represented in Toronto over Valentine's Weekend, just not during the All-Star Game itself. Of the first 15 picks, seven—including each of the top five—will suit up for the Rising Stars Challenge that Friday. Another (Devin Booker) will get to strut his stuff at the Air Canada Centre the following night in the Three-Point Contest.
By and large, this year's rookie class remains on the upswing. Since our last update on first-year players, just three of the ones we looked at have yet to start: Mario Hezonja, Frank Kaminsky and Cameron Payne.
The hope is that, by season's end, each of the most ballyhooed rookies will get to hear his name called in his team's starting lineup at least once. If not, there's still plenty of time for them all to show they've fully arrived—or at least aren't totally lost.
Here's a look at how the top 15 picks are progressing on their paths from prospects to pros.
Totally Lost
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, No. 6 Pick, Sacramento Kings
Sorry, Sacramento Kings fans. Willie Cauley-Stein wasn't actually leading the league in all major statistical categories.
If anything, the former Kentucky Wildcat is slipping in the standings. Over his last four games, Cauley-Stein has averaged a mere 3.5 points and 5.3 rebounds while converting 38.5 percent of his field-goal attempts. In three of those four games, he hasn't cracked 18 minutes on the floor.
That might not be so bad for Cauley-Stein in the long run. He's used the extra time on the pine to pick the brains of the Kings' veterans, including Caron Butler.
"Sitting on the bench, being around Caron and them, they just told me, 'You've got to find spots where they are going to find you,'" Cauley-Stein told Kings digital producer Shahbaz Khan. "So that's all I've been working on. I worked on that for the whole month: watching film and looking at spots where I can be there and just score."
Sacramento can only hope those lessons will pay dividends soon. The Kings could use all the help they can get to climb back into the Western Conference playoff picture after dropping five of six.
Trey Lyles, PF, No. 12 Pick, Utah Jazz
While Derrick Favors was away, Trey Lyles came out to play. During the 16 games Favors missed with back and hip pain, Lyles averaged 8.8 points and 5.9 rebounds, drained 53.1 percent of his three-pointers and flashed a nifty passing game as a starter.
Since Favors returned, the Utah Jazz have tucked their latest lottery pick back into the bottom of their rotation. Over his last five outings, Lyles has sopped up 2.2 points and 2.4 boards in a mere 12.2 minutes per night.
Thus, Lyles isn't so much "totally lost" in his own game as he is on Quin Snyder's depth chart. He'll get another taste of life as an injury replacement when he fills Nikola Mirotic's spot on the World Team at the Rising Stars Challenge.
Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, No. 15 Pick, Washington Wizards
The same could be said for Kelly Oubre Jr. in the nation's capital. Otto Porter Jr.'s return from a hip injury in late January has all but pushed Oubre to the end of the Washington Wizards' bench.
In five games since Porter reclaimed his spot in Randy Wittman's starting five, Washington's top rookie has logged just 4.6 minutes per outing. That includes the six seconds he saw in the Wizards' win over the Houston Rockets but doesn't count the DNP he picked up in his squad's loss to the Golden State Warriors.
Oubre's playing time doesn't figure to pick up from here on out with Washington's injury-riddled roster rounding into health and the team still on the fringes of the East's playoff race.
Glimmers of Hope
Mario Hezonja, SF, No. 5 Pick, Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic have been in free fall since the start of 2016, losing 14 out of 16 games. But while so many on the team have struggled, Mario Hezonja is just now starting to shine.
The 6'8" Croatian sensation has scored in double figures in three of his last five showings, including a breakthrough 17-point performance against the Boston Celtics that helped Orlando snap an eight-game skid.
After the contest, Nikola Vucevic, who also hails from Eastern Europe, explained the rookie's growth to Orlando Magic Daily's Philip Rossman-Reich:
"It is hard as a rookie to find yourself especially in his position with a lot of great players. He was great [Sunday] for us. He was playing with a lot of freedom, he was playing like we know he can. He made some very good plays for us.
It's not easy when you come from a different country and a different style of basketball where he played. To get adjusted, it takes some time. He's really young, but he is improving every day.
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That's more than the Magic, as a whole, can say. Nonetheless, Hezonja, as a member of the World Team at the Rising Stars Challenge, will be one of three Orlando players flying to Toronto for All-Star Weekend, along with Elfrid Payton (Rising Stars) and Aaron Gordon (Slam Dunk Contest).
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, No. 7 Pick, Denver Nuggets
Emmanuel Mudiay will team up with Hezonja at the Rising Stars Challenge, and for good reason. His own star has been on the rise in recent weeks.
Mudiay closed January on a run of nine straight games in double figures, during which he averaged 13.9 points and hit a respectable 36.4 percent of his threes.
His shot's been off to start February (5-of-16). But between the Denver Nuggets' blowout win over the Toronto Raptors and a narrow loss to the Jazz in Salt Lake City, he dished out 14 dimes and turned the ball over just four times.
How did things change for Mudiay, who's had more giveaways than Ellen DeGeneres this season? With a heart-to-heart with his head coach.
"We had a couple of very honest conversations, Emmanuel and I," Michael Malone told the Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey. "There were games in December where I closed the game with Jameer (Nelson) and not Emmanuel. And I told him, 'I didn't trust you necessarily to close those games.' And he didn't want to hear that, and I'm sure it hurt him to a point and I get that. But it's not my job to have Emmanuel like me; my job is to make him the best player that he can be."
Frank Kaminsky, C, No. 9 Pick, Charlotte Hornets
In the NBA, Frank Kaminsky has thus far rarely, if ever, looked like the same guy who was the national college player of the year at Wisconsin last season. There's a reason for that.
"You don't want to start saying 'Nowitzki' because that's not fair," Charlotte Hornets head coach Steve Clifford told the Sporting News' Adi Joseph. "But there's not many guys his size I've ever seen in this league that have his feel for the game offensively. He's 7 feet tall, and he drives by almost everybody. And as he gets stronger, I think a lot of the things he did in college, you'll see."
While Kaminsky's body may have to wait until the offseason, his confidence can continue to marinate—and already has. He registered one of his best games as a pro during Charlotte's 106-97 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, torching the East's top frontcourt for 15 points on 7-of-8 shooting.
Figuring It Out
D'Angelo Russell, PG, No. 2 Pick, Los Angeles Lakers
The roller coaster of D'Angelo Russell's rookie season seems to be on the upswing—however gentle that upswing is. Since last we checked on his progress, Russell has averaged 13 points on 45.4 percent shooting (35.1 percent from three) with 3.2 assists.
Los Angeles Lakers legend Kobe Bryant, though, sees room for defensive improvement in the Louisville, Kentucky, native's game. As Bryant told ESPN's J.A. Adande:
"Listen, he's going through a process. He's had a really tough stretch. And I've been on him pretty tough and picking him up as well. It's just picking up the intensity. Offensively he can get to spots on the floor—he can score.
But defensively, you start seeing now, picking up pressure full court, having a defensive presence, which I think is very important for young guys, because if you don't get it the first two, three years, it's something that you'll be struggling with. Once you get in the habit of doing it early, then it just becomes part of who you are.
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Clearly, though, Russell is making progress, particularly in the minds of those whose opinions matter most in Lakerland. Slowly but surely, head coach Byron Scott is replacing his public scoldings of and barbs at Russell with bits of praise, faint though they are. The Orange County Register's Bill Oram relayed this from Scott:
That, in itself, constitutes a step forward for the Lakers' latest teenager, who will head to Toronto next weekend for the Rising Stars Challenge.
Stanley Johnson, SF, No. 8 Pick, Detroit Pistons
The bad news for the Detroit Pistons: According to the Detroit Free Press' Perry A. Farrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out with a groin strain, and Jodie Meeks suffered another setback in his recovery from a foot injury.
The good news: Stanley Johnson is ready to stand and deliver in their place. He certainly was during Detroit's 111-105 win over the New York Knicks on Thursday. In just his second start of the season, Johnson put together his best game as a pro: 22 points, nine rebounds, five assists, two steals and a block—on national TV, no less.
Johnson's time had been coming. Prior to that coming-out-party, he'd scored in double figures six times in seven games while draining 38.7 percent of his threes.
For the Detroit Bad Boys' Jamie Delancey, Johnson's star turn comes as no surprise to anyone who's been paying attention in the Motor City:
"The thing is, we've all been watching Stanley grow. We've seen him get better as the season progresses and seen the potential. We know he's ready for this. Stanley Johnson's NBA moment has arrived, and if the Pistons make it to the postseason, he'll be a big reason why.
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Justise Winslow, SF, No. 10 Pick, Miami Heat
Justise Winslow is becoming more than just an ace defender off the bench for the Miami Heat, and it's showing.
Through his first 42 games as a pro, Winslow scored double-digit points four times. He's hit that mark three times in his last five outings.
As the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson detailed recently in his Sunday column, the 19-year-old out of Duke has flexed his all-around muscle of late:
"Winslow is already Miami's best defender, according to NBA TV's Grant Hill, and his nine rebounds, four assists, two steals and stout defense on Jimmy Butler in Chicago on Monday, followed by 6-for-7 shooting Tuesday in Brooklyn, were a reassuring reminder of his diverse, dynamic skill set. All week, he showed an ability to facilitate, to bring the ball up the court at times, and get the Heat into offense when needed.
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The next step for Winslow? Sharpening his dull jump shot (26.7 percent from three) into a dangerous weapon.
"Then he could be one of the best players in the league," Heat forward Chris Bosh told the Herald. "He has that type of talent. One of the best two-way players that he can possibly be. His upside is huge. That's the last frontier for him."
Myles Turner, C, No. 11 Pick, Indiana Pacers
As big as the Heat scored by landing Winslow at No. 10, the Indiana Pacers may have scored the real steal of the 2015 draft with Turner at No. 11. As team president Larry Bird explained to Pacers.com's Mark Montieth:
"I just didn't think he would be there. We were talking a lot about the kid from Indiana who went to Utah [Lyles, who went immediately after Turner]. We liked him a lot. But when you get to the 10 spot, you think we know what everybody's doing? You have no clue what everybody else is doing. You're sitting there anticipating if these two guys are going to be there, then somebody like Myles gets there and it changes the whole thing.
"
Turner's already changed plenty in Indy. Whereas once the Pacers were poised to play small and fast, they reverted to a two-big lineup Jan. 28, with Turner joining Ian Mahinmi as a starter up front before Mahinmi missed the subsequent three games with a sore lower back.
But, per Larry Legend, that shift may have more to do with protecting the 19-year-old rookie than going back to the future in Naptown.
"I think some of the guys feel until Myles gets better, we have to go with two bigs all the time," Bird said. "Then when he gets going, yeah, we can play him and the other big together and achieve what I want to achieve."
Chances are, Turner would've forced his way into Frank Vogel's starting five a lot sooner if not for a thumb injury that cost him 21 games in November and December. That setback aside, Bird has high hopes for Turner as a franchise cornerstone for years to come.
"[The Pacers' strength and conditioning coaches] say he's going to be one of the top players in the league just by how hard he works," Bird said. "And his skill level. ... And his attitude. This kid down the road will be a real leader. He'll be a real leader."
Cameron Payne, PG, No. 14 Pick, Oklahoma City Thunder
Cameron Payne bounced back well from a concussion that knocked him out of the Oklahoma City Thunder's rotation for one game. In two outings since then, the Murray State product has put up a total of 17 points and five assists without a turnover.
Ball security has been part and parcel of Payne's game all season; he's racked up 63 assists and just 19 turnovers—a ratio better than 3-to-1. His outside shot has been on point, too, though his success in that regard has surprised ESPN's Kevin Pelton:
"Payne is shooting better from the NBA 3-point line (39.7 percent) than he did from the shorter college line last season (37.7 percent). He has attempted only 68 shots, so we'll have to keep monitoring his accuracy, but if Payne is this kind of shooter, he might be able to finish games alongside Russell Westbrook. That would be huge for Oklahoma City.
"
Not to mention huge for Payne's prospects of moving up this here progress meter.
Fully Arrived
Karl-Anthony Towns, C, No. 1 Pick, Minnesota Timberwolves
If there's a rookie wall somewhere, Karl-Anthony Towns hasn't found it. Over his last 10 games, the Kentucky product has put up 20.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.2 blocks with eye-popping shooting splits of .596/.538/.853.
His 17-point, 12-rebound performance in the Timberwolves' 108-102 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday led Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding to proclaim Towns the more promising of the recent No. 1 picks on Minnesota's roster:
"Towns is better than [Andrew] Wiggins right now...and will be far more so in the future.
That's not to dismiss Wiggins' talent and likely All-Star career. It's just that Towns has the qualities of a likely Hall of Famer at this early juncture. Not only is he already doing almost everything on the court, but he's also doing it comfortably.
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That's high praise for the 20-year-old, especially in light of Wiggins' back-to-back 30-point performances in L.A.
Jahlil Okafor, C, No. 3 Pick, Philadelphia 76ers
With his scoring prowess secured, Jahlil Okafor's rebounding ability has come under scrutiny—and for good reason. After watching Okafor corral just one carom in 20 minutes during the Philadelphia 76ers' 108-105 loss to the Warriors on Jan. 30, the Liberty Ballers' Marc Whittington dove into the numbers and found that the rookie's rebound rate (13 percent, per NBA.com) has been historically bad for a player at his position:
"Since 1990, there have been 29 centers taken in the top 5 of the NBA draft. All but two had or have higher rebounding rates as rookies than Okafor currently does. Only Marcus Camby and Shawn Bradley were worse in Year 1.
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Not that those comparisons are entirely damning. Camby went on to average 9.8 rebounds per game over his 17-year career, with 10 campaigns in double digits. Bradley, for all his struggles, carved out a niche for himself as a shot blocker over his 12 seasons in the NBA.
As for Philly, the team rebounds about as well with Okafor in the middle as it does with Nerlens Noel down there or with the two of them paired up, Whittington wrote:
"[T]he point is that the team performs comparably regardless of the big man setup, so while Okafor isn't necessarily grabbing rebounds himself, he also isn't harming the team with his performance. As long as the Sixers rebound well with Okafor in the game, why should it matter who collects the boards?
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Kristaps Porzingis, PF, No. 4 Pick, New York Knicks
How would the Sixers have done had they drafted Kristaps Porzingis at No. 3? We'll never know, in part because Porzingis' camp went out of its way to shield him from Philly, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski:
"The Porzingis camp wanted no part of the Sixers' situation at No 3. Miller couldn't stop Philadelphia from drafting Porzingis, but he could limit the information they had to make a decision. And did. No physical. No meeting. No workout. The Sixers passed on Porzingis on draft night, clearing the way for the Knicks to select him.
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Those tactics worked out well for all involved. The 76ers got a potential franchise center, the New York Knicks landed a potential star and Porzingis made it to the Big Apple.
Now, the Knicks could use more from the future of their franchise to pull out of their funk. They've dropped seven of their last eight games, with Porzingis missing one due to illness and averaging 11 points on 33.8 percent shooting in the others.
Devin Booker, SG, No. 13 Pick, Phoenix Suns
If anything good has come from this calamitous season in Phoenix, it's the emergence of Devin Booker as a potential star.
The NBA's youngest player has performed like one of late. Over his last nine games, Booker has poured in 20.3 points and 3.4 assists while knocking down 40.6 percent of his threes in 37.2 minutes. The Suns have lost eight of those outings, but that futility has much more to do with injuries and a coaching shakeup than Booker's contributions.
The Kentucky product has the makings of an all-around star—not just a spot-up shooter. During that aforementioned span, Booker got to the line 5.2 times per contest and survived a staredown with LeBron James.
For now, though, Booker's smooth stroke should serve him well as a meal ticket in the Association. It's already earned him a spot in the Three-Point Contest, wherein he'll get to measure his form against the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and J.J. Redick, the current league leader in three-point percentage (48.2) among those qualified for the crown.
All stats accurate as of games played Feb. 4.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @JoshMartinNBA.
