NBA Finals 2015: Odds and Predictions for Cavaliers vs. Warriors Series
LeBron James is the best player on the planet, buts oddsmakers believe the Golden State Warriors are the best team. According to Odds Shark, the Warriors’ odds of winning the NBA championship are at 5-12, while the Cleveland Cavaliers’ odds are 19-10.
James and his teammates will get an opportunity to swing the perception in their favor when the series kicks off on Thursday, June 4 from Oracle Arena in Oakland, California.
Here’s a look at the complete schedule and viewing information for the entire series:
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Game 1: Thursday, June 4, Cleveland at Golden State, 9 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 2: Sunday, June 7, Cleveland at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 3: Tuesday, June 9, Golden State at Cleveland, 9 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 4: Thursday, June 11, Golden State at Cleveland, 9 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 5*: Sunday, June 14, Cleveland at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 6*: Tuesday, June 16, Golden State at Cleveland, 9 p.m. ET, ABC
Game 7*: Friday, June 19, Cleveland at Golden State, 9 p.m. ET, ABC
*If necessary.
Live stream available on ESPN 3 for all games.
Matchups That Will Decide the Series
Rarely will Stephen Curry see a matchup at point guard where his counterpart is nearly or equally as explosive a scorer as he is, but that could be the case in the NBA Finals if Kyrie Irving is healthy.
The Cavs star point guard battled injuries throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, but the seven days off between Cleveland’s sweep of the Atlanta Hawks and the start of the NBA Finals should help him get close to 100 percent.
When asked by ESPN.com’s Dave McMenamin on how to slow down Curry, James had an interesting response:
James is accurate in his assessment, but perhaps the best way to deal with both superstars is to make them work hard at stopping their defensive assignments on the other end. Irving has proved he can score points in bunches all season.
He had the two biggest individual scoring games of the season with 57 against the San Antonio Spurs on March 12 and 55 against the Portland Trail Blazers on January 28. If that Kyrie shows up in this series, this could be a spectacular matchup.
Battle of the Benches
All the injuries the Cavs have suffered have drastically weakened their bench. Still, we’ve seen players such as Matthew Dellavedova, J.R. Smith and James Jones rise to the occasion for the shorthanded Cavs.
Golden State would seemingly have superior depth. When you consider former two-time All-Star and All-NBA team selection David Lee played just 18.4 minutes per game in the regular season and has seen his minutes dip to 7.6 per contest in the postseason, it says something for the Warriors’ depth.
Guys like Andre Iguodala, Festus Ezeli and Shaun Livingston have provided a significant boost for the Warriors throughout the postseason. They will again be counted on to help Golden State win the Battle of the Benches.
LeBron James vs. Warriors
As James said, you can’t slow him down, but you can bet the Warriors will attempt to defend him with a three-man rotation of forwards who then rely on weak-side help if and when the King beats them.
Iguodala, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes will get their shot at containing James in hopes of wearing him down with fresh bodies.
If one or more of those players can get hot—especially from long range—it would help to counter and hopefully force James to devote some of his energy to extinguishing the hot hand. CBS Sports’ Zach Harper doesn’t think that’s a realistic option for Barnes, who figures to draw the initial assignment against James.
Harper writes:
"The only way you can expect Harrison Barnes to have a big series offensively is if the Cavs decide to have LeBron James go rover all over the court, or if Irving is assigned to defend him. It doesn't mean he can't be effective (he was a monster in Golden State's closeout win against Houston), it just means having to chase LeBron around and body him up is going to wear him down throughout this series. It's on the defensive end where his hands will be more than full.
"
Losing Barnes’ energy could be a tough deal for the Warriors. Aside from transition buckets, it could effectively force them to play almost a man down on the offensive end of the floor. That will put more pressure on Curry to carry the scoring load.
Prediction
The Warriors have looked like an absolute machine this season and through the postseason. However, the Cavs have found their identity and chemistry during the postseason. Look for them to pull the upset and win this series in six games.
There are two key factors that influence this prediction.
The first is the health of Klay Thompson. He did in fact suffer a concussion after being kneed in the head by the Houston Rockets’ Trevor Ariza during Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, per Kurt Helin of Pro Basketball Talk, who referenced a statement from the Warriors.
Thompson is currently listed as out indefinitely as he goes through league-mandated concussion protocol. His absence or limited availability shouldn’t be undersold in this series. Golden State doesn’t have a replacement off its bench that can make the same impact as a two-way player like Thompson.
Pulling someone like Iguodala into the starting lineup would weaken the depth of the bench and pull one of the three defenders the team could use to slow down James.
Secondly, it’s hard to quantify what impact James has on a series. His presence is bigger than simply winning his small forward matchup. He makes everyone on his team better—especially now that his teammates seem to have bought in to the team’s identity.
While James might not admit it until after the season, he probably doesn’t like seeing any other player in the league win MVP. Facing Curry—this year’s recipient of the award—head-to-head in the Finals will serve as even more motivation for James to prove he’s the best in the world.
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