Why the Talented UNC Trio Should Step Out of the Shadow and into the NBA Draft

With the draft deadline less than a month away no school has more on the line than the University of North Carolina. 

Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have the UNC constituency begging for the threesome to return to school to get Roy Williams his second national title in five years. 

Before they heed the call of the endless droves pleading for one more year they ought to seriously consider cutting and running for the NBA.

"They're not ready yet"

"The Heels will be preseason #1"

"Tyler came back and he was the player of the year"

These are just a couple of the arguments presented for the trio to return to Chapel Hill for another season with "Mr. Aw Shucks" himself, Roy Williams. Sure, they could do that, win a title and be content or they could do the smart thing and get to the NBA while they can. Before you try to have me committed examine the following:

-Carolina looks to feature a ten man rotation

The addition of Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis, Larry Drew, and Justin Watts broaden Roy Williams' quality depth. They also take away minutes from Lawson, Green and Ellington. 

Bobby Frasor's return coupled with Larry Drew's enrollment would give the Heels three point guards, great for Roy Williams' system, not ideal for a player looking to improve their NBA draft stock.

Lawson needs a DJ Augustin, Derrick Rose style situation where he is the sole ball handler available in order to wow scouts with his speed and ability to get to his spots.

Green would remain relegated to bench duty, even though he is, top to bottom, the most complete player on Carolina's roster. With Ginyard handling the three spot at the tip Green would be battling Ginyard for minutes in the normal lineup while scrapping with Ed Davis and Deon Thompson for minutes at the four in Carolina's small lineups.

-Tyler Hansbrough's number will continue to increase

He's the reigning player of the year, the leading scorer and of course every announcers' man-crush of the year, he is Psycho-T.

With all the hype surrounding Hansbrough's senior campaign every other player quickly becomes an afterthought as a role player. During his final year Hansbrough will break every record known to man, becoming the Tar Heels all-time leading scorer, the ACC's leading scorer and most likely a two-time player of the year.

Selfishness isn't a reason to leave, but the fact that Lawson, Ellington, and Green become secondary and tertiary options doesn't help their stock rise for 2009.

Much of Williams' offense is predicated on the principal of perimeter players feeding Hansbrough the rock all game and letting Psycho-T's "will exceed his skill" all the way to the basket.

With minutes getting split up due to the additions, and Hansbrough's average likely to reach 25 a game, there are less total points for the team. 

This season Carolina averaged 88.7 while Hansbrough averaged 23, or 26% of their total offensive output. Divvying up 65 points between Lawson, Ellington, Green, Thompson and Ginyard not to mention the rest of the bench becomes quite a chore.

-NBA Coaching

There are great college coaches out there including Hall of Famers such as Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski, but the difference is the focus in the NBA.

College basketball focuses on the coaches. Programs live and die with their coaching hires and big coaching matchups flavor the college basketball schedule. 

Having a big time coach is gold in the lands of college athletics, especially when the coach has a proven methodology.

However, often a player's overall development is stunted as a coach works to fit them into a system. With the exception of Calipari's dribble-drive motion, most college systems fall short of maximizing the individual in order to maximize the collective. 

Dean Smith, Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Calhoun have all been examples of holding players back to benefit the team, exhibited by the likes of Jordan, Worthy, Brand, Boozer, Hamilton and Allen exploding upon reaching the free form of the NBA.

In the NBA this isn't the case,because every player has value.  Coaches work to maximize the rosters' talent, not only in order to win basketball games, but to increase a players overall value. 

Trade bait is a valuable asset to have in the NBA, and by developing young talent into viable on the court performance trade value is increased. With the quality of coaching available at the NBA level Lawson, Ellington and Green would blossom to their full potential as opposed to limiting their game to fit into Roy Williams' system.

The draft stock of the three players in question is relatively stagnant, since their situation will remain essentially the same. In examining the second half of the draft where Lawson and Ellington are slated to come to the board, there are playoff teams that need to add parts instead of franchise players.

Lawson could get picked up by the Cavaliers to distribute to Lebron, the Wizards with Arenas, Butler and Jamison or the Sonics [from the Suns] to pass to Durant and Green. 

He'd flourish in a system with people that are able to run with him, and without the pressure of being a franchise player. Lawson would also be a solid fit for a team such as the Mavericks looking to prepare for life without Jason Kidd or the Rockets to replace an aging Rafer Alston.

Ellington, as one of few pure shooters in the draft, would be a valuable asset to two serious title contenders. The Spurs feature Michael Finley and Brent Barry as their three-point shooters, and both are on the wrong side of 35. 

Ray Allen, while the same age as KG, has truly looked old this postseason. Easing Ellington in to replace Ray Allen would be a solid move for a Celtics team that won't have much to choose from with the 30th pick in the draft.

Danny Green is a versatile guard/forward that has the tools to be a successful NBA player. At 6'6" 210 Green has a prototype NBA body and he is a defensive plus given his deceptive quickness and tremendous shot blocking ability as a perimeter player. 

Pairing these assets with his quality three-point shooting ability and solid ball handling skills makes Danny Green will be a solid second round addition.

As a mid-to-late second rounder, Green is looking at being added to a quality ball club that has been to the playoffs and needs to fine tune their rosters. 

Phoenix could use his skills on the defensive end of the floor, as well as the solid three-point shooting. The team that needs to add his skills and youth the most is the Dallas Mavericks. 

A team that features Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse at the combo guard-forward seriously needs a shot of young blood to reinvigorate a solid but aging roster. The Pistons, Hornets and the Sixers could also use a versatile wing player that brings solid defense to the table.

These are just my ruminations on the situation in Chapel Hill and how it disallows for the three best future NBA players to prosper. 

The good of the team is paramount in college and due to that fact, Ellington, Lawson and Green must have their wings clipped in order to achieve the goals of Carolina nation. By leaving school now all three could latch on with quality ball clubs, probably contenders ,and grow their games to a higher level.

Jump ship now, get to the NBA and do the same thing every other player is planning on doing---making bank on the second contract, or 2011, in this case. 

Do it now and you'll be rewarded with a lot more handsomely than being relegated to All-ACC Second Team or Honorable Mention because you don't get enough looks at the basket.