NBA Draft Lottery 2015: Projected Order and Odds for Every Team Involved
The draft lottery has become a nonstop source of controversy over the last 12-18 months.
Accusations of rampant tanking have led to a push for reform spearheaded by NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. In October, owners rejected Silver's initial proposal, thanks in large part to a last-ditch effort by the league's smallest markets. Fear of the effect swift changes could have on long-term planning informed some "no" votes as well, but let's make one thing clear: Lottery reform is coming.
Just not this year.
As it stands, Wednesday night's shuttering of the regular season will lead to a lottery process that looks like any other. After finishing with the league's worst record, the Minnesota Timberwolves will have a 25 percent chance of having three consecutive No. 1 overall picks. (Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett, who came over from Cleveland in the Kevin Love deal, being the others.)
Surprising back-to-back wins over Orlando and Atlanta leave the Knicks, long the favorites to land the top selection, sitting at No. 2. As for how the rest of the lottery odds shook out, here is a complete preview of all the numbers you need to know heading into May 19.
Lottery Odds
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 25 Percent |
| 2 | New York Knicks | 19.9 Percent |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6 Percent |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9 Percent |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | 8.8 Percent |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | 6.3 Percent |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 4.3 Percent |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | 2.8 Percent |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | 1.7 Percent |
| 10 | Miami Heat | 1.1 Percent |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 0.8 Percent |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 0.7 Percent |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | 0.6 Percent |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5 Percent |
Draft Pick Protection Information*
Will Not Convey
- Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers owe Boston a lottery-protected first-round pick. Because Philadelphia landed in the lottery, it will instead convey a second-round choice each of the next two years.
- Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves owe Boston a first-round selection, which is protected for picks 1-12, each of the next two seasons. Minnesota will convey two second-round picks if it selects inside the top 12 in 2016.
- Sacramento Kings: The Kings owe Chicago a first-round pick protected 1-10 for each of the next three seasons. Because Sacramento is guaranteed to select no worse than No. 9, that debt will be carried over into 2015-16.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder would have had to convey their first-round pick to Philadelphia had it fallen outside the top 18. The pick is top-15 protected in 2016 and 2017 before reverting into a pair of second-rounders.
- Dallas Mavericks: Dallas will not convey its first-round pick to Boston because it falls between Nos. 15-30, one of the two protections on the selection (No. 1-3 being the other). The pick is top-seven protected for the next five drafts before becoming unprotected in 2021.
- Cleveland Cavaliers: The Bulls had pick-swap rights with Cleveland but will not exercise those because they finished with a worse regular-season record.
- Memphis Grizzlies: The Nuggets will not receive Memphis' first-round pick because it falls outside the lottery. Memphis retains top-five and 15-30 protections in 2016 before the latter protection subsides in 2017 and 2018.
May Convey
- Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers owe Philadelphia a first-round selection, which is top-five protected in 2015 and top-three protected in 2016. After finishing with the NBA's fourth-worst record, the Sixers would need two teams to leapfrog Los Angeles on draft night to land the pick. There is an 82.8 percent chance the Lakers keep their pick, per Baxter Holmes of ESPN.com.
- Miami Heat: Miami's first-round pick will convey to Philadelphia if it falls outside the top 10. Because the Heat finished with the 10th-worst record, odds are they will keep their pick. Utah, Phoenix, Oklahoma City or Indiana would have to move into the top three—highly unlikely—to force that selection the Sixers' way.
Will Convey
- Brooklyn Nets: The Hawks own pick-swapping rights with Brooklyn this year as part of the Joe Johnson trade. With the Nets selecting No. 15 and Atlanta finishing with the NBA's second-best record, look for the East's best team to get richer thanks to the futility of its rivals.
- New Orleans Pelicans: New Orleans sends its pick to Houston to satisfy terms of last summer's Omer Asik trade. The selection had top-three and 20-30 protection, but with the Pelicans landing at No. 18, the Rockets get the pick. The Pelicans have not kept their first-round selection since 2012.
- Houston Rockets: The Rockets' lottery-protected selection will head to the Lakers, part of the Jeremy Lin swap of last summer.
- Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers send their first-round selection to Boston, which was part of the compensation the Celtics received for allowing Doc Rivers out of his contract.
*via RealGM
Lottery Storylines
Jahlil Okafor vs. Karl-Anthony Towns
The top selection is widely expected to come down to a battle of big men. Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns clearly established themselves as the top available players, albeit for far different reasons.
Okafor was the ready-made product, a nightly double-double coming out of high school who led the Blue Devils to a national championship. He averaged 17.3 points and 8.5 rebounds, flashing an offensive polish that's exceedingly rare at any level of the sport. While his individual defensive skills are lacking, most view Okafor as the "safest" bet on the board.
As will be the case in the NBA, Towns' ascent was more of a slow build. Thrown on a roster with a phalanx of McDonald's All-Americans, Towns was not looked at as Kentucky's go-to player early on. He developed at his own pace, occasionally flashing the potential of an all-around skill set but only in fits and starts. That all changed in March, as Towns scored 41 points in the Elite Eight and Final Four, clearly establishing himself as the Wildcats' best player on the floor.
Making the decision between Towns and Okafor will say a lot about the organizational philosophy of the team that winds up No. 1. Taking Okafor clearly establishes a need for an instant-impact star; think pressure-packed situations in New York and Los Angeles.
Towns is a vote for the future. He's not going to translate as quickly as Okafor, but his two-way potential is far higher. On both ends, you can tell he's still learning. He'll miss rotation by a beat or two on defense, and occasionally, he'll forget he's a 6'11" dude who can literally do anything on the offensive end. A situation like Minnesota, where the playoffs are in the far-off distance, would be ideal.
Who's the Draft's Third-Best Player?
The Case for D'Angelo Russell
A Brandon Roy clone who does everything needed of a modern NBA guard. He can create off the dribble, shoots lights out from three-point range and can move back and forth between the two guard spots. An above-average rebounder and passer for a 2—most likely his natural NBA position—there won't be any flaws in his offensive game once he learns to finish through contact.
The Case for Emmanuel Mudiay
Unlimited potential. A bit like Dante Exum last year, Mudiay is a ball of potential who is going to see a flock of scouts at every workout. He was one of the top high school players in the country before eschewing college ball for China, and he is a powerful slasher who seeks out and plows through contact. His most natural comparisons are Russell Westbrook and John Wall, which should tell you all you need to know about his NBA ceiling.
The Case for Justise Winslow
He made it himself during the NCAA tournament. Equipped with arguably the highest motor of anyone in this class, Winslow averaged 14.0 points and 9.3 rebounds in Duke's national title run and at times topped Okafor as the Blue Devils' best two-way player. There are some concerns about what position he'll play at the next level but none about his overall skill set. At the very minimum of his potential, he'll be an ace defender who knocks down open threes and finishes at the rim.
Mock Draft
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Jakob Poetl, C, Utah |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Kris Dunn, PG, Providence |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
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