Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DraftKings Strategy for Friday, March 6
Is Russell Westbrook playing tonight?
No?
You sure?
Okay, phew! He played the last two nights. We're safe from the real-life version of the Looney Tunes' Tasmanian Devil.
So who should you play when the guy on the best one-month run since daily fantasy was born sits? That's what I'm here to sort out. Let's get to it.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| Steph Curry | vs. DAL | $9,500 | Mike Conley | vs. LAL | $5,900 | |
| Reggie Jackson | @ Hou | $6,600 | Trey Burke | @ PHI | $4,500 | |
| Ray McCallum | @ ORL | $3,800 |
Steph Curry ($9,500) vs. Mavericks
Stephen Curry absolutely feasts on the Mavericks' backcourt. In two games against Dallas this season, Curry is averaging 40 points, 3.5 boards, six assists and over six made threes!
Granted, the last game between the Warriors and Mavs followed the perfect game script for Steph to explode. The Mavericks got up big early and forced Warriors coach Steve Kerr to rely more heavily on his starters to lead a comeback. Curry played 37 minutes, four more minutes than his season average.
The fear when starting Steph Curry in daily fantasy is not whether or not he'll perform, but rather that the game will be close enough in the fourth quarter for him to play down the stretch. Well, after their franchise-best start, the Warriors have cooled. Check out their average home margin of victory by month:
| Month | Number of Games | Average Margin of Victory |
| November | 6 | 14.2 |
| December | 7 | 16.9 |
| January | 11 | 17.8 |
| February | 2 | 12.5 |
| March | 1 | 9 |
They're still winning comfortably, but when the score is within 15 points entering the fourth quarter, Curry is usually called upon to help close out the game.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| James Harden | vs. DET | $10,400 | Jason Richardson | vs. UTA | $4,100 | |
| Victor Oladipo | vs. SAC | $7,000 | Ben McLemore | @ ORL | $3,900 |
Victor Oladipo ($7,000) vs. Kings
Ben McLemore ($3,900) at Magic
Coming off his best scoring game as a pro, Oladipo gets a dream matchup at home against Sacramento. According to Rotogrinders, Sacramento is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards.
Before hiring George Karl, the Kings allowed shooting guards an average of 43.5 fantasy points per game, but in six games under the Hall of Famer, that number has ballooned to 47!
Karl has shown trust in his young shooting guard Ben McLemore. In the seven games since Karl took over, McLemore is averaging 32.8 minutes per game, up from 23.4 under Ty Corbin and Mike Malone. His numbers have jumped across the board:
| Head Coach | Games Played | Fantasy Points | PPG | RPG | APG | 3PM |
| George Karl | 7 | 21 | 13.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Corbin/Malone | 52 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1 | 1.1 |
Fortunately for Oladipo, according to basketball-reference.com, the rejuvenated McLemore sports an abysmal 111 defensive rating on the season—more than five points per 100 possessions worse than the league average.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| Lebron James | @ ATL | $10,500 | Al-Farouq Aminu | @ GS | $4,600 | |
| Tobias Harris | vs. SAC | $6,300 | Tony Snell | @ IND | $4,000 | |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | vs. TOR | $6,000 |
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,600) at Warriors
Dallas is playing the second night of a tough Portland/Golden State back-to-back. They'll have to rely on their young role players. Chief among them is Chandler Parsons' fill-in, Al-Farouq Aminu.
Aminu will see a plethora of long, athletic wing defenders in Oakland tonight. Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Justin Holiday and Shaun Livingston will all likely take a turn on the Dallas swingman.
But the Mavericks cannot rely on Monta Ellis to get easy buckets with the formidable Klay Thompson chasing him around. Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo will never be first options offensively, and Draymond Green does a nice job of bottling up Dirk Nowitzki. All this means more work for Aminu.
The Warriors allow the fewest points per 100 possessions in the league, but they play at the fastest pace, so Dallas will get open looks. With Aminu, you're paying substitute-level player cost for starter-level opportunity.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| Anthony Davis | vs. BOS | $10,800 | Markieff Morris | @ BKN | $6,400 | |
| Draymond Green | vs. DAL | $7,100 | Kenneth Faried | @ SA | $5,800 | |
| Tim Duncan | vs. DEN | $6,800 | Nikola Mirotic | @IND | $5,700 |
Draymond Green ($7,100) vs. Mavericks
Tim Duncan ($6,800) vs. Nuggets
On Wednesday, Draymond Green turned 25. He also turned in another stellar performance. The leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year is on a mini tear since the Warriors lost to the Cavs on Feb. 26. Check out his last four games:
| Opponent | Fantasy Points | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM | Blocks |
| Toronto | 42.8 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Boston | 41.8 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Brooklyn | 27.3 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Milwaukee | 60.5 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Draymond is a smart play even when his scoring isn't there, but lately he's been shooting well. Friday night, he'll be chased around the perimeter by Dirk Nowitzki and Amar'e Stoudemire. Both are old, and neither has a defensive pedigree.
Duncan has been the Spurs' most consistent player this season. He's still averaging over 14 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game.
And...Friday night he gets the Denver Nuggets—everyone's favorite frontcourt to play against. Hopefully the "rejuvenated" Nuggets can keep this game close in San Antonio. If Duncan plays over 30 minutes, he'll hit value.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| Demarcus Cousins | @ ORL | $9,500 | Rudy Gobert | @ PHI | $7,200 | |
| Nikola Vucevic | vs. SAC | $8,400 | Roy Hibbert | vs. CHI | $4,800 | |
| Marc Gasol | vs. LAL | $7,500 |
Marc Gasol ($7,500) vs. Lakers
The Lakers allow a league-leading 105.9 points per game. Per StatMuse, they've been able to keep these high-scoring road bouts close. In February, the Lakeshow lost their road games by an average of only five points.
Memphis, who normally plays at the league's fifth slowest pace, should see an increase in total possessions Friday night. If the Grizz are smart, most of those possessions will run through the big Spaniard. He's too savvy on both the high and low block for Jordan Hill, Carlos Boozer and Ed Davis to handle.
