NFL Predictions Week 14: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

Crunch time has arrived.

With the NFL regular season entering its final month, 18 of the league's 32 teams sport winning records. In the AFC alone, there are half a dozen 7-5 football teams fighting for the final wild-card spot. No pressure.

Given that logjam, every game, and even every play, takes on added significance. One gaffe could be the difference between playing on into the new year and watching the playoffs from home.

The Division Lead and National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report have already offered their game-by-game picks for Week 14, so let's take a look at things from another angle. Whether it's the week's biggest upset, a blowout in the making or J.J. Watt's weekly nod for best defensive performance (who else are we gonna pick?), here's a look at some predictions for the upcoming week's slate.

We were going to throw in the winning Powerball numbers for Saturday too, but I think I'll keep that one to myself. The season of giving has its limits.

All odds via Odds Shark.

Upset of the Week

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Winner: Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts (6 votes)

The Week 14 choice of our panel for upset of the week contains one of the 7-5 AFC teams I mentioned in the intro.

The Cleveland Browns have already won more games this season than most expected, but the team has been sliding of late. So much so, in fact, that head coach Mike Pettine turned to Johnny Manziel at quarterback in the fourth quarter of last week's loss at Buffalo.

However, as ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler reports, Pettine indicated Wednesday that Hoyer will be back under center Sunday when the Browns host the Indianapolis Colts:

"

After thorough evaluation and talking to the staff, we feel Brian gives us the best opportunity to win on Sunday. This is a football decision, and those are always going to be based on what we think is best for our team.

Brian has led our team to a 7-5 record. I'm confident that we can get the entire offense playing at the level needed to accomplish the goals we set at the beginning of the season. Those goals are still very much attainable.

"

That turmoil at quarterback wouldn't appear to bode well heading into a matchup with the AFC South leaders, but in the opinion of AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, it isn't Hoyer or Manziel who will be the deciding factor in this one:

"

Outside of dropping Blake Bortles to the mat, the Colts haven't really done much of note over the past couple of weeks to make me think they've improved their standing in the AFC pecking order. They've allowed three touchdowns to Colt McCoy, scored just 23 points against the Jaguars and gotten humiliated by the Patriots on national television.

While Cleveland's run game isn't quite as good as it was early in the season, with the absence of center Alex Mack, its run game still has the ability to take over here against a weak Colts run defense.

Ultimately, I can't shake the feeling the Colts are due for a wake-up call.

"

Hear that, Browns fans? There's still hope!

Since, as Browns fans, I know you're unfamiliar with that term, hope is defined as "the feeling that what is wanted can be had or that events will turn out for the best."

Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes), New York Jets (+6) over Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Chicago Bears (+4) over Dallas Cowboys (2 votes), Washington Redskins (+2.5) over St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) over Houston Texans (1 vote)

One voter abstained

Blowout of the Week

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Winner: Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons (7 votes)

Well, this is a first.

At first glance, it might seem strange that this week's pick for biggest blowout contains a pair of division leaders.

That is, until you consider that the Atlanta Falcons, who lead the steaming pile of poo that is the NFC South in 2014, have a 5-7 record—and the NFL's worst pass defense.

It's that last part that's the big problem, as Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been positively filthy at home this year, to the tune of 20 touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a gaudy passer rating of 134.4.

Atlanta head coach Mike Smith admitted to The Associated Press (via Fox News) that the Falcons will have their hands full at Lambeau Field:

"

It's a big challenge for us this week with Aaron Rodgers. No doubt, he's playing the best of any quarterback in the NFL right now. He's got a number of weapons he can get it to. He's played extremely well at home. I don't think he's thrown an interception at home this season, and I don't even want to talk about how many points they've scored.

"

Smith probably doesn't want to talk about how many points the Packers have scored, because in addition to ranking dead last against the pass, the Falcons are also 22nd in the league in scoring defense.

Others receiving votes: New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers (4 votes), San Francisco 49ers over Oakland Raiders (3 votes), Detroit Lions over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote)

Biggest Mismatch

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Winner: Aaron Rodgers vs. Atlanta Falcons pass defense (11 votes)

There are usually any number of candidates for the biggest mismatch in a given week. When a single matchup is able to garner double-digit votes, it's a good indicator that the mismatch is a glaring one.

In the opinion of NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon, that's exactly the case this week in Titletown:

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This one's simple: Rodgers has the highest passer rating in the league, this season and all time. He's the game's hottest quarterback and is becoming a lock for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year.

Now, at home, he goes up against an Atlanta defense that ranks dead last in the NFL and has the lowest sack rate in the league. Sure, the Falcons got pressure on Drew Stanton by sending extra rushers, but this ain't Drew Stanton. When blitzed this season, Rodgers has 13 touchdowns, one interception and a 129.9 passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

This could get ugly.

"

The man makes a point.

Actually, he made several, not one of which bodes well for the Falcons.

Others receiving votes: San Francisco 49ers everything over the poor excuse for Oakland's anything* (2 votes), Jimmy Graham vs. Carolina Panthers safeties (1 vote), J.J. Watt vs. Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line (1 vote)

*The Raiders line is a quote, so just keep the tomatoes in the crate, Oakland fans.

Sleeper QB Performance

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Winner: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans (7 votes)

Fear the beard!

After getting benched earlier in the season, only to be reinserted into the starting lineup after Ryan Mallett got hurt, the confidence level in Houston Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't exactly sky-high entering Week 13.

That confidence level got a big boost last week, though, as Fitzpatrick threw for 358 yards and a career-high six touchdowns in a blowout win over the Tennessee Titans.

Fitzpatrick told The Associated Press (via Fox News) that his benching may actually have been a blessing in disguise:

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I think that being able to look at it at a different perspective, take a step back, and see it from a different view, I do think it helped a little bit. I think that and me going back and evaluating myself I think those were two factors that helped me out.

"

In any event, our experts expect Harvard the Barbarian to continue rolling this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their 28th-ranked defense.

Others receiving votes: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes); Eli Manning, New York Giants (1 vote); Colt McCoy, Washington Redskins (1 vote); Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (1 vote); Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams (1 vote); Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns (1 vote)

Over/Under: 400 Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Winner: Over (9 votes)

OK, one more, and then we'll stop beating up the Falcons and their hapless secondary.

At least until Sunday, when Rodgers starts beating up on the Falcons and their hapless secondary.

Granted, 400 passing yards is a lot, even for Rodgers. It's a benchmark that the 10th-year veteran has hit only once this season, when he threw for 418 yards in a loss to the New Orleans Saints back in Week 8.

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown doesn't think Rodgers will hit that mark again this week, if only because he won't have to:

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I think this comes down to just how much you believe in the Falcons to stay in the game. I believe it's much more likely we see Atlanta down 34-0 at halftime than we see it within three points or winning, so I think Green Bay transitions to the run game down the stretch and Rodgers gets some time to talk to his teammates on the sideline while the Packers cruise.

"

However, nine of our 15 voters took the over. I'll leave it to you to decide whether that speaks more to just how on fire Rodgers has been at home this year or how much time the Atlanta tertiary (it's so bad it doesn't even qualify as a secondary) has spent getting burned in 2014.

Sleeper RB Performance

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Winner: Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (4 votes)

More often than not, the "sleeper" categories in this weekly article contain a plethora of nominations. Week 14 was no exception, as seven young running backs received at least one vote as this week's surprise star.

Three writers, including AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst, selected rookie Isaiah Crowell of the Cleveland Browns:

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A week after being benched in favor of Johnny Manziel, Brian Hoyer is back as the Browns' starting quarterback. And if the Browns want to rebuild his confidence, then they must have a game plan against the Indianapolis Colts that works in his favor. How do they do that? By getting back to what works—running the ball.

Isaiah Crowell has long been thought to be the Browns' best running back, and with Terrance West fumbling twice against the Bills in Week 13, Crowell will likely be the one to get the most carries in the backfield this week.

The Colts have proved vulnerable to heavy doses of running, giving up 100 or more rushing yards six times this season, including 246 to the New England Patriots. The Browns would be smart to echo the Patriots' approach this Sunday, especially in the comforts of their home field. If they do, Crowell could have the best week of his young career and the best performance for a running back in Week 14.

"

However, despite the fact that he has yet to carry the ball 20 times or gain more than 65 yards on the ground in a game, fellow rookie Bishop Sankey of the Tennessee Titans edged out Crowell to win this week's vote.

That may have something to do with a New York Giants run defense that ranks last in the NFC, allowing over 140 yards a game.

Others receiving votes: Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (3 votes); Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (3 votes); Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes); Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (1 vote); Andre Williams, New York Giants (1 vote); Marion Grice, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)

More Rushing Yards: LeSean McCoy or Marshawn Lynch

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Winner: Marshawn Lynch (13 votes)

The biggest game of Week 14 likely takes place Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia, where the 8-4 Seattle Seahawks will face off with the 9-3 Philadelphia Eagles in a potential playoff preview.

In addition to the high stakes in this game, it's also a contest that features two of the NFL's best ball-carriers in Marshawn Lynch of the Seahawks and LeSean McCoy of Philadelphia.

Both bellcows are coming off big outings on Turkey Day. McCoy gashed the Dallas Cowboys for 159 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, while Lynch rumbled over the San Francisco 49ers for 104 yards on 20 totes.

The two backs have varying styles, but there's no denying that both are immensely talented. However, while the Seahawks rank fifth in the NFL in run defense, allowing just 86.3 yards per game on the ground, the Eagles are allowing over 20 more rushing yards per contest.

That's enough to swing the panel's vote squarely into Beast Mode's corner.

Sorry, Shady.

Sleeper WR Performance

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Winner: DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (4 votes)

OK, I'm calling shenanigans on this one.

Mind you, it's not that I don't think that Houston Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins will have a good game Sunday against the Jaguars. It's just that after last week, I don't think Hopkins qualifies as a "sleeper" anymore. After reeling in nine passes for an eye-popping 238 yards and two scores against the Titans, the second-year pro is fully awake.

Alert, even. Maybe even hopped-up on four cups of morning java.

Of course, there were other pass-catchers who received votes. NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson, for example, cast his vote for Michael Crabtree of the San Francisco 49ers:

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It's come to this with Michael Crabtree, and he's sunk to the lowly depths of being identified as a sleeper. That happens when you've mostly been slumbering, with a career-low 48.1 receiving yards per game. But the 49ers will look to wake their passing offense up from its own deep sleep against a Raiders secondary allowing the league's fourth-highest passer rating, and Crabtree should (finally) see his share of intermediate targets.

"

Still, it's Hopkins, the sleeper who isn't, who carried the day in Week 14.

Others receiving votes: Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (3 votes); Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (2 votes); Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote); Rueben Randle, New York Giants (1 vote); Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote); Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote); Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

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Winner: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (4 votes)

Update: Two receptions, 26 yards

It might seem odd to call Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys a sleeper. After all, the 32-year-old has been to nine Pro Bowls in his career. One day, we'll likely be discussing his candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

Still, in the Cowboys' run-first offense this year, Witten has been asked to do a lot more blocking and a lot less receiving, and it's shown in his numbers. Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, Witten managed only a single catch for eight yards.

There are plenty of scribes who aren't expecting much from Witten this week. NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski cast his eyes much farther north, for instance:

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Kyle Rudolph played all but four snaps against the Carolina Panthers, which indicates he's nearly 100 percent healthy from a previous groin injury. The Vikings tight end may have had only two catches for seven yards Sunday, but one of his receptions resulted in a touchdown.

The Jets, meanwhile, already surrendered 12 touchdowns to tight ends this season. The 6'6" Rudolph presents a massive target for rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in the red zone. It's an ideal matchup for the Vikings offense.

"

With that said, if there's a team that's had more problems defending tight ends in 2014 than the New York Jets, it's the Chicago Bears. It's evidenced by the fantasy points allowed to the position in 2014, a category in which the Bears trail only the Indianapolis Colts.

And it's those defensive lapses by the Bears that put Witten over the top this week.

Others receiving votes: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (3 votes); Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (3 votes); Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes); Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1 vote); Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Gates

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Winner:  Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (12 votes)

Sunday night's showdown in San Diego isn't short on star power. There's the battle under center between Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Philip Rivers of the Chargers, dueling wideouts in the form of Keenan Allen and Julian Edelman and two future Hall of Fame tight ends in Antonio Gates and Rob Gronkowski.

Gronkowski earned the respect of rookie safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. After bouncing off Gronk like a Ping-Pong ball, Clinton-Dix tweeted Monday that he will "never try and hit Rob Gronkowski up high again."

Gronkowski also has the respect of our writers, who overwhelmingly picked the 25-year-old to outgain Gates in receiving yards.

Best Defensive Performance

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (8 votes)

Like it was going to be anyone else.

Yes, it might be a little monotonous to see Watt win the vote in this category week after week (after week). But it's hard to argue against him.

In fact, it's nearly impossible.

Granted, some voters tried. NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier looked to the secondary, with Arizona Cardinals cornerback Antonio Cromartie:

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OK, guys, I see you all picking J.J. Watt every week, staying tight to the herd so you don't become the straggler that gets eaten by the cheetah. And yeah, Watt's great every week.

What's he going to do to the Jaguars that they aren't already doing to themselves? Watt would have to record seven sacks and score three receiving touchdowns to meet his current standards if we opponent-adjust to the Jaguars scale.

The Chiefs have to throw the ball once in a while to snap out of their slump, and with Patrick Peterson likely to draw Dwayne Bowe much of the afternoon, Cromartie will get to face the other Chiefs receivers. Because the Chiefs don't have any other receivers, he will have plenty of chances to roam, gamble and freelance. I see Cromartie laying in wait, then jumping a pass in the flat to Jamaal Charles (if healthy) or DeAnthony Thomas, then taking it home for a score.

And he will be doing it against a playoff team, not the Seahawks' Triple-A affiliate. Top that, J.J. Watt! (He probably will. But if it wasn't for stragglers, there wouldn't be cheetahs.)

"

If Cromartie notches that pick-six, Tanier gets six million bonus points. But in the meantime, just sit back, relax and watch this video of a mic'd-up Watt giving Zach Mettenberger of the Tennessee Titans all sorts of problems last week.

Great googly moogly, he's good.

Others receiving votes: Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams (3 votes); Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams (1 vote); Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions (1 vote); Antonio Cromartie, CB, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote); Chris Borland, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote)

More Sacks: Von Miller/DeMarcus Ware or Mario Williams/Jerry Hughes

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Winner: DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller (15 votes)

There hasn't been a more prolific pass rush in the National Football League in 2014 than the Buffalo Bills' unit. The team has racked up 48 sacks this year, tops in the league. Defensive ends Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes have accounted for 21.5 of them.

Of course, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware of the Denver Broncos have had their fair share of success terrorizing quarterbacks this season too, to the tune of 22 sacks between the pair.

The Bills and Broncos square off in the Mile High City on Sunday, and our experts are unanimous in their assertion that Miller and Ware will have more luck harassing Kyle Orton than Hughes and Williams will have badgering Peyton Manning.

For AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz, it's all about the matchup:

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The Bills' defensive front has been one of the most dominant this year, and the tandem of Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes has already generated 21.5 sacks between them this season. That being said, Peyton Manning is classically one of the most difficult quarterbacks to sack and has been taken down only 13 times this season, just north of once per game. The Bills defensive line is their best bet at pulling off a mammoth upset, but they couldn't ask for a more difficult foe in that respect.

"

Given that the Bills have allowed over twice that many sacks (28), it's a hard point to dispute.

Flop of the Week

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"Winner": LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (7 votes)

This week's predictions for flop of the week run the gamut. It's a veritable NFL who's who, with everyone from rookies to grizzled veterans being tabbed for a Week 14 face plant.

NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski went the rookie route, forecasting that despite Mike Pettine naming Brian Hoyer the starting quarterback, Johnny Manziel will see the field just enough to make Cleveland fans wish he hadn't:

"

Even though the man known as "Johnny Football" hasn't been anointed the starter yet, which is a massive disappointment for the throngs of fans anxious to see what the mercurial rookie can do, he could still receive extended playing time that will include flashes of greatness interspersed with rookie mistakes. Expectations are so high for this talented, young signal-caller that it will be nearly impossible to actually live up to them.

"

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter, on the other hand, went with a much more established signal-caller, even if he's only in his third NFL season:

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Cleveland’s fighting for its life, and its disruptive pass rush and playmaking secondary should be able to force Andrew Luck into a few big mistakes. I still like Indianapolis to win the game, but I think Luck has a relatively bad day at the office.

"

However, it wasn't a quarterback who won the category nobody wants to win in Week 14.

That "honor" went to LeSean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles, who faces the stout run defense of the Seahawks on Sunday in Philly.

The sixth-year veteran is on the brink of making some history. As John Gonzalez of CSN Philadelphia recently pointed out, McCoy needs only 48 yards on the ground to become the team's all-time leading rusher.

"I didn’t imagine when I got drafted here that I’d potentially have a chance to hold the rushing record as an Eagle." McCoy said via Gonzalez. "That’s something big. That’s something I’m looking forward to. The main goal is just to win the game, obviously. But in the way of doing that, I’d love to accomplish that."

If our panel is correct, McCoy may have to wait another week to set that record.

Others receiving votes: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes); Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote); Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote); Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns (1 vote); C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos (1 vote); Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (1 vote)