NFL Power Rankings 2014: Week 2 Standings Based on Latest Super Bowl Odds
As we did prior to Week 1, and will continue to do throughout the NFL season, it's time to look at the NFL power rankings based on the updated betting odds. Just as our analysis of teams has changed dramatically after one game, so too has the likelihood they will win a Super Bowl.
Using betting odds to determine power rankings is actually more effective than just offering a single opinion on where things stand because no one is more invested in the outcome of these games than oddsmakers. Their business thrives on finding upsets, so who's going to pay closer attention to the outcome?
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Of course, something also gets lost in translation because odds always move based on where the money is going. For instance, Seattle is the favorite to win the Super Bowl but anyone putting money on the Seahawks isn't likely to be happy with their return if it happens.
Whatever direction the wind is blowing, we are here to break it all down. Here are the Week 2 power rankings based on the current betting trends.
Note: Odds via Oddsshark.com
No. 32 Oakland Raiders (400-1)
The Derek Carr era got off to an OK start. He wasn't able to secure a victory in New York, but did look better than any recent quarterback the Raiders have had with two touchdowns and a 62.5 percent completion rating.
Carr's real test will come on Sunday when he's asked to throw the ball with J.J. Watt bearing down on him. He was able to survive Rex Ryan's defensive tactics. Now, let's see how he does against the most disruptive force in the NFL.
No. 31 Jacksonville Jaguars (400-1)
For 30 minutes, the Jacksonville Jaguars were the feel-good story of Week 1. Then they remembered they were the Jaguars, gave up 34 points to Philadelphia in the second half and what looked like an upset turned into a 34-17 defeat.
There were positives to take away from the loss. Gus Bradley's skills as a defensive coach showed with Nick Foles being sacked five times and the Eagles going 0-for-2 in the red zone. We knew the rebuilding process was going to be long, but at least there are reasons to be optimistic about the future.
No. 30 St. Louis Rams (200-1)
A lot of individual players had bad weeks, but no team looked worse in Week 1 than the St. Louis Rams. There were concerns about the offense with Sam Bradford being lost for the season, but the defense was going to keep the team in games.
After all, the Rams finished third with 53 sacks last year and were supposed to have a top-five defensive line, according to Football Outsiders. They got abused against Minnesota on both sides of the ball. Jeff Fisher's crew had just 72 yards on the ground, while allowing 185 on defense.
Maybe Bradford was more valuable to this team than any of us realized.
No. 29 Washington (100-1)
If you want some good news about Robert Griffin III's performance in Week 1, he did have the second-best QBR among NFC East quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Info:
Of course, anyone who watched the New York and Dallas games knows that's faint praise. At what point do we have to accept that this is what Griffin is? He was a great story as a rookie, suffered a horrible injury and had an unusual relationship with his previous head coach that clearly changed something in his game.
This was supposed to be an offense that was explosive with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside and Alfred Morris at running back. but when those receivers are averaging less than eight yards per catch, something is wrong.
No. 28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (100-1)
It turns out that Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery made Josh McCown look a lot better than he really is. Who knew? If you have big-play receivers like Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, there's no excuse for averaging 5.2 yards per attempt.
Adding injury to the insult, newly acquired guard Logan Mankins, who was supposed to shore up the offensive line holes, suffered a hyperextended knee. Rand Getlin of Yahoo Sports reports the team doesn't believe it's serious.
Lovie Smith might be a great leader of men, but this offense has a long way to go before the Bucs can be considered contenders in the NFC South.
No. 27 New York Giants (100-1)
It's a good thing Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin have two Super Bowl rings, because whatever they have been doing the last two years is horrid. Manning has never looked more lost in this new offense and the line isn't doing him any favors.
No. 26 Kansas City Chiefs (100-1)
We love to overreact in the NFL. There's only one game per week for each team, which leaves a lot of time to overanalyze what happened. However, do you think the Chiefs are privately regretting giving Alex Smith that contract extension?
An even bigger problem for the Chiefs in Week 1 was the play-calling from Andy Reid. Around the NFL had a great stat about Kansas City's running game:
If Jamaal Charles is your best player, there's no reason he should only have 11 touches in a game. Meanwhile, Smith is throwing the ball 35 times. A lot of those came late when the Chiefs were down and needed quick scores, but that's also a product of not controlling the clock and utilizing Charles in the first half.
No. 25 Dallas Cowboys (100-1)
There was a time when you could defend Tony Romo, but Week 1 against San Francisco was the absolute worst game for anyone who wanted to try. He was lost on an island with no hope of rescue, throwing three interceptions on three straight drives.
All the talk about the Cowboys defense before the season was legitimate, but we still don't know how good or bad that unit is because Romo hung them out to dry with his turnovers.
No. 24 Cleveland Browns (100-1)
The Johnny Manziel bubble was swelling up in the first half of Cleveland's game against Pittsburgh with the Browns trailing 27-3. Things came back to reality in the second half, as Brian Hoyer looked effective with 230 yards and one touchdown.
The real story for Cleveland in the game was the running game. Rookies Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell were fantastic with 132 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. If they can control the ground game, it will open up the outside for Hoyer and the receivers.
No. 23 Tennessee Titans (75-1)
We all overlooked Tennessee in the preseason, but the Titans had everything working in Week 1 against Kansas City. They racked up 405 yards, allowed 245 and controlled the ball for nearly 38 minutes. In an AFC South without a great team, this looks like a good sleeper team to bet on.
No. 22 New York Jets (75-1)
The Jets are a hard team to place after Week 1. They took care of business at home, defeating a young Oakland team. Yet, do you really feel good coming out of that game?
The running game was outstanding with 212 yards, but even with that they still struggled to get anything going through the air despite Geno Smith finishing with 221 yards. A win is a win in the NFL, but you just want to see more from a team that does have talent on both sides of the ball.
No. 21 Buffalo Bills (75-1)
The Bills found the formula that they will have to use in order to win games this season. Their running game picked apart Chicago's still-porous defensive line with 193 yards, E.J. Manuel didn't make the big mistake and the defense was opportunistic against Jay Cutler.
It will be an interesting home opener this week as the Bills host the Miami Dolphins. We will find out which early AFC East surprise team has a leg up and possibly some staying power.
No. 20 Baltimore Ravens (66-1)
The Ravens have been all over the news this week for all the wrong reasons. Meanwhile, the team has to prepare for a Thursday night game against Pittsburgh. We see athletes compartmentalize outside stories all the time, but if they are able to win this game with everything going on around the franchise, that's next level.
No. 19 Minnesota Vikings (50-1)
If you look at things in a vacuum, the Minnesota Vikings looked like the best team in the NFC North last week. Before we start printing up the playoff tickets, though, let's see how they do against a team that isn't using a second- and third-string quarterback.
There are reasons to be optimistic about the Vikings, though. They have the best running back in football (Adrian Peterson) and arguably the most exciting playmaker on offense (Cordarrelle Patterson). If Matt Cassel just doesn't make mistakes, the offense can score points.
The secondary is a concern, but the pass rush held up its end of the bargain in Week 1 with five sacks. Now, they have to do it against a New England offensive line that got beat up against the Dolphins.
No. 18 Houston Texans (50-1)
Just as the Bills found the right formula to win games, the Texans will have to use an efficient passing attack and strong running game to generate points. Defensively, there may or may not be truth to the rumor that the NFL wants to force J.J. Watt to play by himself to see if 11 guys are capable of stopping him.
No. 17 Chicago Bears (50-1)
The scary thing for the Bears against Buffalo in Week 1 is Matt Forte had 169 yards of total offense, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery combined for 13 catches and the defense allowed 167 passing yards but they still lost.
There were a few analysts, such as Fox Sports' Brian Billick, predicting Jay Cutler to win the MVP award because of those two receivers on the outside and explosive potential for the offense:
Those people forget just how easy it is for Cutler to make mistakes. He threw two bad interceptions, including one in the fourth quarter when the game was tied and the Bears were driving. There are a lot of toys to play with, but consistency at the quarterback position is everything. Chicago doesn't have it.
No. 16 Carolina Panthers (50-1)
Just when we all think the Panthers are going to regress, especially in a game where Cam Newton didn't play, the defense steps up to remind us why they were so good last year. Combine that with strong play from rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin and the steady hands of Greg Olsen, suddenly Carolina looks good once again.
No. 15 San Diego Chargers (40-1)
With respect to a team like the Bears, is there a more frustrating team to try pinning down than the San Diego Chargers? They're never good enough to be an elite team, never bad enough to bottom out and always somehow in the playoff race when the year ends.
They had an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter at Arizona before allowing two touchdowns on consecutive drives, then couldn't convert on the game's final drive. Now, they get to play Seattle on Sunday. The good news is the game is in San Diego, so the 12th Man won't be a factor.
Would it surprise anyone if the Chargers won this game?
No. 14 Miami Dolphins (40-1)
No team is going to get pumped up more than the Miami Dolphins after Week 1. They defeated the New England Patriots by outscoring them 23-0 in the second half. Cameron Wake was a monster in that game with two sacks and pressured Tom Brady on virtually every dropback in the last two quarters.
As impressive as Wake and the defense was in the second half, Gil Brandt of NFL.com was quick to heap praise on the brand new offensive line:
The Dolphins moved the ball on New England because that offensive line was opening holes all over the place for Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller, who combined for 193 yards and one touchdown. Protection has always been the key for this offense to succeed. For one week, it looked good.
No. 13 Atlanta Falcons (40-1)
The glass-half full crowd will tout Atlanta's resolve in its win against New Orleans. It was certainly an impressive performance, particularly from Matt Ryan.
Ryan seemed to get lost in the quarterback shuffle because of the offensive line and low expectations for the team, but we forget that he still threw for 4,515 yards and 26 touchdowns last year with those same problems.
Anytime you can get a win against a divisional opponent, it's going to be huge and build a lot of confidence. However, before we declare the Falcons as contenders, let's not forget the defense still gave up 34 points, 472 yards and was one Marques Colston fumble in overtime away from looking at a loss.
The defense is still not very good, putting more pressure on Ryan to shoulder the offensive burden.
No. 12 Arizona Cardinals (40-1)
One of the most impressive parts of Arizona's come-from-behind win against San Diego on Monday night was the way Carson Palmer distributed the ball to everyone in the passing game. Look at this stat from Chris Wesseling of NFL.com:
Michael Floyd was the only player to break the 30-yard barrier with 119 on five receptions. There were 11 Cardinals that had at least one catch and five with multiple receptions. When Palmer is distributing the ball like that and not turning it over, good things will happen in Arizona.
To be fair, the weakness of San Diego's defense is the secondary. That group finished 29th in pass yards allowed last season and doesn't look much better this year. He won't find a tougher task this weekend against the Giants, so things are looking up for the veteran quarterback.
No. 11 Pittsburgh Steelers (33-1)
Do we know anything about the Steelers after Week 1? Ben Roethlisberger is a great playmaker at quarterback, but we knew that before. They looked like one of the best teams in football early against Cleveland, then had to hang on for dear life.
Their problems against the run, which can likely be attributed to having the oldest starting defense in the NFL, were alarming. Cleveland racked up 183 yards on the ground, with 121 coming in the second half.
Even though defense is synonymous with Pittsburgh, it's not the same unit it once was. You can move the ball on this group. Roethlisberger and the offense will have to put up 490 yards of offense a lot this season if they want to be a playoff team.
No. 10 Indianapolis Colts (28-1)
Let's all agree that we will never turn the television off during a Colts game again. They may give up a lot of points early, but the second half is when they shine and there's always an interesting finish.
However, you can only play the comeback role so many times. They have been outscored 76-29 in the first half of their last three games (AFC Wild Card Round, divisional round, vs. Denver). They're 1-2 in those games.
Andrew Luck, as great as he is, shouldn't have to operate under a microscope in the last 30 minutes. Things aren't going to get easier for the Colts defense as the season moves on. Suspended linebacker Robert Mathis tore his Achilles working out and is done for the year, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.
The Colts are another frustrating team that has a great quarterback to mask a lot of their issues. Still, does this look like a Super Bowl-caliber team?
No. 9 Detroit Lions (25-1)
Before we proclaim Jim Caldwell as the calming presence Detroit has needed to fulfill its potential, let's remember that the Lions were playing the Giants. Credit is deserved for taking care of business. Calvin Johnson is still a monster. Golden Tate looks like a great addition as the slot receiver.
However, there were still dumb mistakes in the first half that allowed the Giants to stay in the game through the second quarter. They had a pass interference penalty that led to New York's first touchdown in the second quarter. The offense had a drive before halftime that stalled due to a 15-yard facemask penalty.
A much better measure of where the Lions are at will come this week against a Carolina team that put forth a strong defensive effort against Tampa Bay and is expected to have Cam Newton back under center.
No. 8 Cincinnati Bengals (22-1)
The Bengals didn't look like a Super Bowl contender in Week 1 against Baltimore. When you are settling for five field goals in the first half, something isn't right. Andy Dalton did finish with over 300 yards, 131 of those going to A.J. Green.
However, the running game was stagnant with 79 yards on 26 carries. Even the defense, which is the team's strong suit, looked weaker than the numbers indicate. Baltimore receivers dropped at least five passes, including four from Steve Smith, via Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports:
The Bengals are still the most talented team in the AFC North and should be in the postseason. They have a lot of work to do before moving into the elite class, though.
No. 7 Philadelphia Eagles (16-1)
Speaking of work to do, it's rare in the NFL that a 17-point win comes with a caveat. The Eagles were outclassed in the first half against an inferior Jacksonville team. Nick Foles had three turnovers in the first half, which nearly matched his 2013 total, via SportsCenter:
More alarming was the way Jacksonville was able to shut down LeSean McCoy. The Eagles running back had nowhere to go virtually all game, finishing with 74 rushing yards on 21 carries. I'm not worried about him, but just speaks to the bigger issue of how off everything seemed in Philadelphia.
Going on the road for Monday Night Football against Indianapolis will tell us if Week 1 was an aberration or sign of things to come.
No. 6 Green Bay Packers (14-1)
You can't punish Green Bay for what happened in Week 1. It wasn't a good game, by any stretch, for the Packers in Seattle, but no one plays well there. The best cure for a Seattle hangover is a home game against a middling offense. In this case, the New York Jets.
No. 5 New Orleans Saints (12-1)
We all know the Saints are a different team away from home, but what happened in Atlanta was concerning. They signed Jairus Byrd to give their secondary an attitude, then Ryan threw for a career-high 448 yards in leading the Falcons to 27 points after halftime.
Because of the way they are constructed, the Saints will always have to outscore their opponents to win. That serves them well in the confines of the Superdome, but take them out of that environment and things change.
No. 4 New England Patriots (11-1)
While no one is saying Logan Mankins was an All-Pro player anymore, he looks more valuable to New England's offensive line than ever after Tom Brady got thrown around like a rag doll in the second half against Miami.
The Patriots' lack of explosive plays was also a concern, as ESPN Stats & Info noted Brady really struggled with throws deep down the field:
For all the talk of New England's new attitude on defense, including the return of Vince Wilfork in the middle of the defensive line, it still gave up nearly 200 yards on the ground.
The Patriots always tend to lose a game like this every year, then bounce back strong the next week. Don't hit the panic button yet, but keep an eye on how effective the offensive line and run defense are against a run-happy Minnesota team.
No. 3 San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
Remember when the 49ers couldn't do anything right in the preseason? If that's not proof of how useless it is to overreact to the exhibition games, I don't know what is. Certainly, the defense got helped from some bad decisions by Tony Romo.
However, we shouldn't dismiss how effective the defense was. Romo had nothing to do with DeMarco Murray's fumble on the first drive, nor was it his fault the Dallas defense let Colin Kaepernick complete 16 of his 23 passes.
It wasn't a perfect effort for Jim Harbaugh's team. They had 11 penalties, including three on Ahmad Brooks in one drive, that kept the defense on the field longer than it needed to be. The already-thin secondary took a beating with Chris Culliver and Jimmie Ward leaving the game, and Tramaine Brock missing a portion of the game with a toe injury.
That's not a good sign when you have Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery coming to town. Still, it was a positive first step for the 49ers.
No. 2 Denver Broncos (9-2)
For 30 minutes, it was business as usual for the Broncos against Indianapolis. Peyton Manning threw three touchdowns to Julius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders was making plays all over the field.
The second half did show that Denver's rebuilt defense may not be as physical as it needs to be, allowing 14 points in the fourth quarter to allow Indianapolis back in the game. The running game looked lackluster with just 3.2 yards per carry.
Manning played with some mediocre running games before, so there's not much concern that he will struggle if Montee Ball isn't a superstar. But let's see more from the defense before we proclaim this team as a lock to come out of the AFC.
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
What is there to say about Seattle at this point that hasn't already been said? The Seahawks last four games, dating back to the postseason, have been against Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.
Those four have combined to throw for 931 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions. Not bad given the level of talent we have seen from those quarterbacks.
Any concerns that this would be Marshawn Lynch's down year were alleviated when he ran for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Russell Wilson remains an unbelievable playmaker in or out of the pocket, even though his overall numbers won't compare with Rodgers, Brees or Manning at season's end.
The Seahawks are the best team in football and deserve their ranking until someone knocks them off.
If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.
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