The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 1

Would you describe yourself as a gambler?

Have you ever risked your cab fare on a Pac-12 second-half over from the bar at 1 a.m.? Have you spurned the Hello Kitty doll your daughter really wanted in favor of spending your Christmas bonus on an NFL playoff pool? Is your springtime "tradition unlike any other" betting on the back nine at the Masters?

Then look no further, fellow member of #TeamDegenerate. Your Captain has you covered.

I've been feverishly watching line movement with the same zeal that Usher grilled Kim Kardashian with at the MTV VMAs. I've been studying all offseason. I am ready and raring to go.

And after you're done reading, you will be too.

Disclaimer: I am in no way, shape or form a gambling professional. I do not handicap games for a living. Like you, I'm just a dude who loves to piss away his hard-earned money betting on professional sports.

Now, do I know the NFL inside and out? Yes. Do I cover the league for a living? I do.  

But if you're reading this with the intention of letting your mortgage ride on my best bet of the week, I would first recommend you seek professional help and then urge you to step away from the keyboard.

My fellow degenerates: The time is nigh! This is our season! It's time to bask in the glory of overs and unders, teasers and parlays, backdoor covers and rookie quarterbacks on the road.

This is the Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 1, powered by Odds Shark.

Now let's make that money, y'all.

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com. 

Thursday Night Football: Green Bay at Seattle

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

Final Score: Seattle 36, Green Bay 16 (Seahawks cover -4.5)

I'm actually upset the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks played on Thursday night, as I didn't get the chance to share my best bet of the week.

Seattle was the lock of the century. There was simply no way the Packers were walking into the fortress known as CenturyLink Field and not losing by double digits. It was a veritable impossibility.

I couldn't wrap my brain around the late flood of money that came in on Green Bay. The line had hovered around Seattle minus-six the entire week and then suddenly dropped to minus-4.5 like Disney's Tower of Terror.  

Didn't bettors watch the Super Bowl? Didn't they witness the utter destruction of the Broncos' record-setting offense at the hands of the Legion of Boom?

And the Packers were going to cover the spread in the belly of the beast?

Come on, people. You're better than that.

I can only hope the gambling gods bestow us with another surefire money-maker like Seahawks minus-4.5 sometime this season. I doubt that Seattle will be installed as anything less than a touchdown favorite in its seven remaining home games.

New Orleans at Atlanta

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Line: New Orleans at Atlanta (+2.5)

I am already angry at the outcome of this game.

You see, I'm going to bet the New Orleans Saints. Why? Because logic and reason dictate that the boys from the Bayou are going to lay an absolute ass-whipping on the Atlanta Falcons.

And that probably means the Falcons will win outright.

In theory, the Saints are the vastly superior team. They are my pick to win the Super Bowl. I firmly believe Sean Payton is set to embark on an "Eff You Tour" with stops in various NFL cities, reminding them of his greatness. Drew Brees is going to author another majestic campaign. The defense, coordinated by Bourbon Street legend Rob Ryan, is underrated.

Conversely, the Falcons are a mess. They're coming off a disastrous 4-12 season. They have weapons on offense, but the pass protection is a major question mark. The defense looks atrocious, and no, Claude Humphrey ain't walking through that door. They also produced what was easily the most boring season ever of HBO's Hard Knocks, with Mike Smith failing to inspire with his milquetoast persona.

But as any grizzled gambler knows, the easiest bets are the ones that are most likely to blow up in your face. 

Think about it: Even if the Saints finish the season 12-4, isn't it feasible one of their losses could be on the road against a hated division rival? Isn't it within the realm of possibility that the Falcons come out supercharged and ready to erase the memory of 2013's debacle? 

I'm going to take the Saints. They are the better team. They have the better coach. This game has 45-28 written all over it. 

And when the Falcons are up 14-0 with seven minutes left in the first quarter, I'm going to be cursing into my slice of pizza.

The Pick: New Orleans (-2.5)

Minnesota at St. Louis

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Line: Minnesota at St. Louis (-3.5)

I'm begging you: Please don't bet on this game.

There is no way you have any idea what's going to happen. It's impossible. You might think you know, but you really don't. 

I've heard from both sets of lunatics over the past few weeks: those who like the Minnesota Vikings and those who like the St. Louis Rams. And you'd think these schmucks were clairvoyant with the confidence they've displayed in their pick.

Anything could happen in this game. Seriously.

Would you be shocked if Rams quarterback Shaun Hill threw three interceptions and Vikings running back Adrian Peterson rushed for 150 yards in a 10-point Minnesota victory?

Would your socks be knocked off if the Rams defense swallowed up the Vikings run game and Hill made just enough plays in the passing game to ensure a four-point triumph?

The answer to both questions is a resounding "no." And if you answered "yes" to either, you're either lying or stupid. 

If you held a gun to my head, I'd take the Vikings. The extra half point scares me. I think this is a field-goal game going in either direction.

But there (thankfully) isn't a gun to my head. I'll be wagering my hard-earned money elsewhere, thank you very much.

And you should too.

The Pick: Minnesota (+3.5)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Line: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7)

On behalf of gamblers everywhere, I'd like to thank Browns coach Mike Pettine for naming Brian Hoyer as his starting quarterback.

He's made the decision to lay the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers that much easier.

Seriously: There is a better chance of Justin Verlander dumping Kate Upton for Susan Boyle than Brian Hoyer going into Pittsburgh and beating the Steelers.

Now, if Johnny Manziel was the Browns' starting passer, it'd be a different story. I'd still wager on Pittsburgh with confidence, but there would be that gnawing doubt in the back of my mind: What if Manziel scrambles around like a madman and makes plays? What if Johnny Football treats Dick LeBeau's defense with the same disrespect he did Nick Saban's? What if I have to watch Manziel make the money signal as my money fades into nothingness?

Thankfully, that gnawing doubt doesn't exist. I've never felt better about anything in my life.

The Steelers are due for a bounce-back season. Bottom line: Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin are too good at their jobs to miss the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

The Browns have no chance in this game. Zero. If receiver Josh Gordon was around, I'd give them an outside shot. But he's not, so I won't.

Don't overthink it. Don't talk yourself into the Browns. 

Take the Steelers with confidence, and thank me on Monday morning.

And for those of you in survivor pools, I'm rolling with the Black and Yellow.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-7)

Jacksonville at Philadelphia

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Line: Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-10)

Fact: Everyone and his or her mother love the Eagles to cover the 10-point spread against Jacksonville.

Fact: People are stupid.

Fact: There is no way Eagles quarterback Nick Foles will replicate his 2013 performance of 27 touchdown passes against only two interceptions.

Fact: The Jacksonville Jaguars, in their second year under hyper-enthusiastic coach Gus Bradley, are a much-improved outfit.

Fact: Everyone and his or her mother love the Eagles to cover the 10-point spread.

Fact: People are stupid.

The Pick: Jacksonville (+10)

Oakland at NY Jets

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

Line: Oakland at NY Jets (-5)

Imagine that you're Oakland Raiders rookie quarterback Derek Carr.

You're getting ready to make your first-ever NFL start, and it happens to come on the road against defensive wizard Rex Ryan and his New York Jets.

You look at the "talent" your offense possesses at the skill positions and realize there are schools in the SEC that would produce more fantasy football starters.

You break into a cold sweat and say a quick prayer, not having to wonder for whom the bell tolls. 

It tolls for thee.

The Pick: NY Jets (-5)

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Line: Cincinnati at Baltimore (PK)

In gambling, it sometimes comes down to confidence.

Which team do you have more confidence in when the game is on the line? Which quarterback are you more confident in to not throw the boneheaded, backbreaking interception? Which coach are you more confident in to not haphazardly waste timeouts like doing so will hit financial escalators in his contract?

This is going to be a close game. I know it. You know it. The teams know it. And Vegas knows it, with the line currently sitting at a pick-em. 

So, I ask you, my fellow gambler: When it's the fourth quarter and the game is tied, which quarterback are you more confident in: the Cincinnati Bengals' Andy Dalton, he of the 0-3 lifetime playoff record, or the Baltimore Ravens' Joe Flacco, with a Super Bowl MVP under his belt?

Which coach would you rather wager your hard-earned money on: Cincinnati's Marvin "Never Met a Bad Challenge He Didn't Like" Lewis or Baltimore's John Harbaugh, who has guided his team to the playoffs in five of his six seasons in charge?

I'm not saying it's going to be easy. You're going to sweat. It's going to come down to the final moments.

But in the end, I'm confident in Flacco. I'm confident in Harbaugh. I'm confident in a Ravens team that's both playing at home and trying to wash the bad taste of 2013 out of their collective mouths.

And I'm most confident that Dalton will throw a late, gruesome interception sure to make Bengals backers turn a brighter shade of orange than the one emblazoned on the Cincinnati helmets.

The Pick: Baltimore (PK)

Buffalo at Chicago

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Line: Buffalo at Chicago (-7)

If the Buffalo Bills were a publicly traded company, they'd currently resemble Enron circa 2001.

The team is a disaster. Its second-year quarterback, EJ Manuel, operated in the preseason with the efficiency of a 1971 Ford Pinto. Its coach, Doug Marrone, is reportedly feuding with the front office, per Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com.

Meanwhile, the vibes surrounding the Bills' Sunday opponent, the Chicago Bears, are nothing but positive. The Bears' quarterback, Jay Cutler, appears set for an MVP-type season. Their coach, Marc Trestman, garnered the most Coach of the Year votes in Bleacher Report's expert preseason award predictions.

So why can't I shake the nagging feeling the Bills are going to cover the seven-point spread on Sunday?

I want to bet Chicago. Trust me, I do. I was excited about the prospect all offseason. I love Cutler, and I love his weapons. Matt Forte is an outstanding running back, and Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery could represent the best one-two punch at receiver in the league.

But Chicago's defense has the potential to stink worse than a fish left out in the sun.

Last year, the Bears gave up a preposterous 5.3 yards per carry. And yeah, better players were added to the mix this offseason (most notably defensive end Jared Allen), but it remains to be seen if the unit is capable of stopping anyone.

Meanwhile, with Manuel looking like the lovechild of Henry Burris and Spergon Wynn, the Bills will likely run, run and run some more with backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

I can't pull the trigger on the Bears with confidence, and I'd be reticent to tab them as my survivor pick.

I like the Bills to cover, but the Bears to eek out a close victory.

The Pick: Buffalo (+7)

Washington at Houston

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Line: Washington at Houston (-3)

Much like the Vikings/Rams game I canvassed earlier, Sunday's tilt between the Washington Redskins and Texans in Houston is impossible to call.

I beg of you: Do not bet on this game. Anything could happen.

Would you be stunned if Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, two going to new receiver DeSean Jackson? 

On the flip side, can't you envision a scenario where Griffin is brutalized by Texans defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, leading to a Houston romp?

Adding to the murkiness of this contest is the fact that both teams have new head coaches: Jay Gruden (Washington) and Bill O'Brien (Houston). Again, anyone professing to have a clear read on this game is either lying or stupid.

Quick aside: I wish Vegas offered a line on whether Griffin will stay healthy over the entire 16-game season. I would bet my life savings on "NO" and walk away grinning like the Cheshire Cat.

If I had to wager on this game, I'd roll with the Redskins. Griffin is a far superior quarterback to Houston's Ryan Fitzpatrick, and I believe the Texans are being overvalued. They were a 2-14 team last year for a reason: They're not very good.

And while the Redskins aren't that good either, they are better than the Texans. I like Washington to win outright.

The Pick: Washington (+3)

Tennessee at Kansas City

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Line: Tennessee at Kansas City (-3.5)

I don't understand the line on this game, and that scares me.

The Tennessee Titans are the most nondescript team in the league. They have no identity. Their quarterback, Jake Locker, has shown an inability to stay healthy. Their new coach, Ken Whisenhunt, has yet to leave his mark on the team. They haven't made the playoffs since 2008.

And somehow, they are only 3.5-point underdogs on the road in Kansas City.

Now, for the uninitiated, the Kansas City Chiefs play at Arrowhead Stadium, which is essentially a modern-day version of the Roman Colosseum. The Kansas City fans are loud and rabid, creating one of the most effective home-field advantages in the NFL. Plus, the Chiefs are coming off a playoff berth, and quality players are strewn throughout the roster.

And I'm supposed to believe the Titans are going to keep it close? Not a chance.

I view this spread as Vegas' version of the Jedi mind trick. It occurs when you survey a line, and it makes zero sense, causing you to go the other way on what you believe is an obvious choice. 

What? Vegas only likes the Chiefs by 3.5 points over the Titans? And the game is at Arrowhead? What do they know that I don't? Are the Titans for real? This could be Locker's year. ... And that extra half-point is worrisome. ... It's gotta be a close game. ... It's going to be a field goal that wins it either way. ... I'm taking the Titans!

That's the kind of thinking that will lose your money.

Don't fall victim to the Vegas trap. Go with what you know. The Chiefs might not be a Super Bowl-caliber team, but they're certainly better than the Titans—especially at Arrowhead.

The Pick: Kansas City (-3.5)

New England at Miami

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Line: New England at Miami (+4)

After watching the New England Patriots dominate the AFC East for the past 10-plus years, my initial reaction whenever they play a division game is to lay the points with Bill Belichick's squad.

But I'm not so sure about this one. It's one of the toughest games of the week to pick.

I'm more bullish on the 2014 Miami Dolphins than most. I'm a huge fan of their quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, and believe he's due for a breakout season. I could easily see Tannehill standing strong in the pocket and putting up big-time stats against Belichick's defense.

With that said, the question is if I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is and gamble that Tannehill will keep the Dolphins in the game and cover the four-point spread.

Right now, I can't do that. I need the 2014 Dolphins to show me something before I'm willing to take them in a game like this. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has already proved it to me 50 bazillion times. I have more confidence in New England.

This will be a high-scoring affair that will be close until the fourth quarter, when the Patriots will pull away and win by a touchdown. Returning tight end Rob Gronkowski will be the difference.

The Pick: New England (-4)

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Line: Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3)

This was looming as the single-most difficult game of the week to pick.

And then Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton, who is dealing with fractured ribs, was ruled a game-time decision by coach Ron Rivera, per David Newton of ESPN.com.

Even if Newton plays (if I were a betting man—and I am—I'd bet the farm he does), the fact he has injured ribs means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only logical play in this game.

I mean it: You cannot bet on the Panthers when Newton is one hit away from backup quarterback Derek Anderson entering the fray. Do you really want your hard-earned money riding on the right arm of Anderson? Every time Newton drops back to pass, Panthers backers will hold their breath and hope the Buccaneers pass rush, keyed by defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, somehow doesn't reach him.

That sounds like three hours of stress I don't need in my life.

I'd rather plop my cash down on the Buccaneers and take my chances with the home team with the healthy quarterback (Josh McCown). 

The Pick: Tampa Bay (-3)

San Francisco at Dallas

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Line: San Francisco at Dallas (+4.5)

Sometimes, Vegas hands you a gift. It asks—nay, it begs—for you to take its money. It wants to lose. There's no other explanation for a line as ridiculous as this one.

The San Francisco 49ers have been to three consecutive NFC Championship Games. They have one of the best coaches in the league (Jim Harbaugh) and one of its best young quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick). Their roster is deep, and they play tough, physical football.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. Their coach (Jason Garrett) is a dead man walking, and their quarterback (Tony Romo) is 34 years old and coming off his second back surgery.

And oh yeah, the Cowboys appear poised to field the worst defense in the NFL. 

I know the 49ers first-team offense struggled throughout the preseason, but the Cowboys defense represents the perfect tonic for what ails it.

Don't let anyone talk you into taking Dallas. Don't listen to the schmucks who are down on the 49ers. Remember the quality of the two teams playing, and remember the disparity at head coach.

Accept the gift the gambling gods have bestowed upon you.

Take the 49ers with confidence.

The Pick: San Francisco (-4.5) 

Sunday Night Football: Indianapolis at Denver

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Line: Indianapolis at Denver (-7.5)

I actually feel bad for the Indianapolis Colts defense. Really, I do.

It wasn't enough that it was utterly humiliated in the postseason, allowing 87 points in two games (44 to Kansas City, 43 to New England). 

Now, it has the distinction of being humiliated in front of a national audience in the first Sunday Night Football game of the season when the Colts play in Denver against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Manning is coming off a season in which he threw for an NFL-record 55 touchdown passes. Of course, that didn't help him much in the Super Bowl, where the Broncos were annihilated by the Seahawks.

Over the course of the offseason, Manning surely stewed, pining for revenge. He has been waiting to eviscerate a hapless defense, to throw touchdown pass after touchdown pass in an effort to exorcise the Super Bowl demons.

I love Colts quarterback Andrew Luck as much as the next guy, but this is an impossible spot for him. He's going to have to put up 40-plus points to keep his team in the game, and the Broncos defense knows it. That means pass-rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are going to be coming at Luck with the ferocity of rabid pit bulls.

When the game is over, the Colts defense will have let up 40-plus points for the third consecutive game, and Manning will be on his way to another MVP-caliber season.

The Pick: Denver (-7.5)

Monday Night Football: NY Giants at Detroit

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Line: NY Giants at Detroit (-6)

The first game in the Monday Night Football doubleheader features two train-wreck franchises going head-to-head in Motown, as the Detroit Lions play host to the New York Giants.

In the coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning era, the Giants have won games when they've protected Manning, ran the football with success and rushed the opposing passer. Last year, they did none of those three things, and in a related story, they missed the postseason for the second consecutive year.

Manning was dreadful, throwing a league-leading 27 interceptions, and looked equally poor in this preseason. Big Blue seems to have adapted to new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's system as well as the dinosaurs did to cold weather.

Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a season in which they were handed the NFC North title on a silver platter, only to send it back with a condescending sneer of a haughty restaurateur.

The collapse cost former coach Jim Schwartz his job, and he was replaced by Jim Caldwell. To say that Caldwell was an uninspiring hire would be an understatement, as his blank expression on the sidelines would make him a fantastic choice for the lead role in Weekend at Bernie's 3: Detroit Rock City.

Detroit's quarterback, Matthew Stafford, possesses all the physical talent in the world but hasn't truly refined his craft. Watching someone as gifted as Stafford continually throw off his back foot and display questionable throwing mechanics would be like Iggy Azalea wearing a potato sack for the rest of her life. 

This game will have one of two outcomes: Either Detroit wins by 20 or the Giants eek out a nail-biter. If the game is close, I have much more confidence in Manning, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, than I do in Stafford. But I'm convinced the Lions will get the job done at home and win comfortably.

The Pick: Detroit (-6)

Monday Night Football: San Diego at Arizona

Mathew Sumner/Associated Press

Line: San Diego at Arizona (-3)

My dear readers, I have a confession to make.

My name is Nick Kostos, and I'm obsessed with the 2014 San Diego Chargers.

I'm more excited to bet on the Chargers this Monday night than I was the first time I saw Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis kiss in Black Swan. 

And it's because of San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers.

Rivers is coming off a career renaissance so profound it would have made Galileo jealous. Last year, under the tutelage of coach Mike McCoy, Rivers tossed 32 touchdown passes against only 11 interceptions, and it should surprise no one if he authors a similar performance in 2014.

I have supreme confidence in Rivers outplaying Arizona's signal-caller, Carson Palmer. When the game is close in the fourth quarter, I will revel in the fact that my money is on Rivers, especially when Palmer throws an ill-advised pass and immediately starts running backward to try and prevent a pick-six.

Forget about the points. The Chargers will win the game outright.

The Pick: San Diego (+3)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week ATS

1) San Francisco (-4.5 at Dallas)

2) Baltimore (PK vs. Cincinnati)

3) San Diego (+3 at Arizona)

4) Denver (-7.5 vs. Indianapolis)

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1) Cleveland at Pittsburgh (under 41.5 points)

2) Carolina at Tampa Bay (under 37.5 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1) Indianapolis at Denver (over 55 points)

2) New Orleans at Atlanta (over 51 points)

3) San Francisco at Dallas (over 51 points)

Survivor Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh over Cleveland