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Predicting NBA Stars Most Likely to Drop off in Second Half of 2012-13 Season

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Predicting NBA Stars Most Likely to Drop off in Second Half of 2012-13 Season
Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Bulls' Carlos Boozer

The NBA stars likeliest to drop off in the second half of this season include a group of players who all currently rank among the top 50 in scoring.

Some of these stars have put together a better-than-expected start to their season. Others have track records which portend a decline.

Regardless, each of these stars are still scoring the basketball at a rate that ranks among the top 15 percent of all NBA players.

This list does not include players like Pau Gasol, for example, who already began dropping off well before this point in the 2012-13 season.

It also doesn't include others, like Amar'e Stoudemire, who have not had enough of a sample size this year to truly indicate which direction their career is currently trending.

The drivers for each prediction include a combination of shooting efficiencies, team-shot-distribution trends and other qualitative factors.

The predicted drop-off for each star is with respect to where they are now from a production standpoint and where they project to finish the 2012-13 season. 

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