Why Dwight Howard Won't Leave the L.A. Lakers in 2013 NBA Free Agency

Some will tell you that the Los Angeles Lakers took a risk in trading for Dwight Howard without guaranteeing that he'd be in purple and gold past this season. They had Andrew Bynum on an expiring deal, but odds are they could have got him to return, the thought isn't necessarily the same for Howard.

At one point or another Howard has voiced his desire to test the free-agency market, and it was obvious when he was with Orlando that he was willing to take less money in free agency if need be, especially when Houston was looking to trade for him and he threatened to walk down the road to Dallas in 2013 if they did.

This is bad news for the Lakers then, right? The guy they just traded to be the future of their franchise is going to look around at other teams if he's not happy. Well, it's not quite bad news yet.

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, it would be senseless for any player seeking a maximum deal to sign an extension before becoming a free agent, as he would get a four-year deal instead of five. Instead, every big-name player looking for a big deal will likely enter free agency before their team gives them a maximum deal.

In this case, the max contract that the Lakers can offer him is a five-year deal approaching $120 million. Meanwhile, any other team can offer him a four-year deal just south of $90 million. There aren't many people in this world with enough gall to walk away from $30 million of guaranteed money.

Obviously, the monetary ramifications are going to play a huge role in who Howard sings with, but at some point he's got to take a look at the future of each franchise involved and which ones give him the best chance of winning a title or three.

Aside from that, it doesn't seem like someone would plop down $20 million on a house if he was planning on leaving in 10 months.

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So, Dwight Howard just purchased a home in LA, for nearly $20M......and wrote a check for the house. #Boss#Lakers

— Mike Gabriel (@MikedupRadiocom) August 16, 2012

 

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Something few people out there realize is that the Lakers financial situation isn't as dire as it seems, at least they're not in up to their eyeballs for years to come. In fact they have just $9 million on the books for the 2014-15 season.

Taking into account a reduced salary for Kobe Bryant and Howard's potential deal and L.A. will have around $40-45 million locked in for three guys instead of $75 million going to four guys.

Aside from that, there's the dumb luck quota that Los Angeles has to fill from year to year. For some reason, be it stumbling into Kobe Bryant, luring Gary Payton and Karl Malone to Los Angeles, missing the playoffs once and drafting Andrew Bynum, stealing Pau Gasol, stealing Steve Nash or stealing Dwight Howard, L.A. always ends up looking rosy. It can't be explained other than reasoning that Mitch Kupchak is a wizard.

Looking around the league, a handful of teams will have the money for Howard, including Atlanta, Dallas, Cleveland, Sacramento, Charlotte, Denver, Detroit, Houston, the Clippers, Hornets, 76ers, Spurs and Jazz. Of those, Atlanta and Dallas seem to be the only suitors that make sense.

Atlanta is Howard's hometown and he's expressed some interest in Dallas in the past. Other than that, the market is full of small markets and tough roads to glory.

The Hawks might make for an interesting match, but he would be starting from a notch behind where he's at currently with the Lakers. Aside from that, they don't have nearly the same history as the Lakers in terms of running a franchise well enough to win a title.

Dallas is the only other well-run, potentially suitable franchise that would work well with Howard. The only problem there is that they're going to be centered around Howard and Dirk Nowitzki, who happens to be older than Kobe.

As far as chances to win a title goes, the teams that make the most sense for Howard to join just aren't on the same footing as Los Angeles, and won't be until past next season. Unless something crazy happens, it just wouldn't make sense for Howard to leave Los Angeles.