Heat vs. Thunder Game 3: Miami Must Win to Keep Title Hopes Alive

The Miami Heat are fresh off of stealing home-court advantage from the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they won't win the NBA championship if they give that advantage back in Game 3 on Sunday night. 

The Heat don't have to end this series before it heads back to Oklahoma City for Game 6, which is good, because history suggests that is nearly impossible. 

Since the NBA switched to the 2-3-2 home and away format, just twice has the team with the three games in a row at home won all three, and the Heat won't be able to push that number to three. Their shooting is too streaky, and the Thunder are too good. 

If the Heat are going to win this series, they have to go back to Oklahoma City with the series lead. Otherwise, they will have to win the final two games on the road to close out the series, and that is a daunting task. The Thunder's loss in Game 2 was their first at home in these playoffs. 

So they can afford to lose one game in this stretch—it just can't be the first one.

Oklahoma City will be playing with house money if they steal Game 3. The Thunder would have zero pressure to win again in Miami, which would allow them to play loose and free. And if they stole just one of the last two games in South Beach, the series would be all but over. 

Conversely, the Heat will have a firm grip on the momentum with a win in this one. It would give them back-to-back wins with the next two games coming on their home court. That will instantly crank up the pressure on the young Thunder. 

This is a huge game for the Heat, and a victory will put them well on the path to a championship.