NBA Draft 2012: Perry Jones III and Underachievers with Most Upside

Every draft selection carries with it a certain measure of risk—but some more so than others.

Not every franchise will have the luxury of selecting a sure thing who can really make an impact at the next level. The safe options are safe for a reason.

For teams looking to roll the dice, though, this draft has a number of options who could wind up paying off big. Of course, they could also wind up becoming permanent projects, bridges to nowhere sure to frustrate fans for years to come.

Who's so close and yet so far away to greatness in this June's draft class? 

Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)

Jones III has the perfect length, athleticism, speed and ability to play above the rim and become a legitimate NBA star. He also has the nuggets of talent to put those physical tools to good use.

Still, it's hard to explain why he doesn't always seem to do so. Perhaps Baylor didn't utilize him especially well—he split time on the perimeter and in the post during his two seasons with the Bears and may have just struggled to find a groove.

It's also possible that Jones III just hasn't yet developed a motor commensurate with his skill. A guy with his size should have probably averaged more than 7.6 rebounds and 0.6 blocks in over 30 minutes a game.

Andre Drummond, C (UConn)

We know Drummond can play defense, and arguably no player in this draft has a better combination of size and strength—he averaged 2.7 blocks in under 29 minutes a game as a freshman.

He could struggle, however, to score early on at the pro level—his sheer size advantage got him 10 points a game with the Huskies, but he'll need to develop and improved post-game for continued success going forward.

Drummond also had a tough time remaining fully engaged during his time on the floor—his mental approach to the game will be more of a challenge than anything else. 

Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)

Jones has the physical tools to become a star and a solid all-around game that's still under improvement. It's probably a bit harsh to suggest that Jones has underachieved—it's not his fault he was on such a deep championship team

He saw fewer minutes, fewer shots and fewer points in his sophomore campaign. But, he also became more efficient and took fewer three-pointers while maintaining elite defensive numbers (nearly two blocks per game).

That suggests Jones is still on the right track.

Austin Rivers, G (Duke)

Rivers can certainly score, but it's still not clear that he can do much else. His size and penchant for holding on to the ball won't mix well in the NBA.

That said, if Rivers can share the ball and become a more complete guard, he has all the potential you could ask for.

Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)

Like Drummond, Moultrie's size and athletic ability could convince a team to take somewhat of a gamble, and his improvement as a junior should earn him some looks in the first round. He may not have Drummond's talent and upside, but Moultrie could have a DeAndre Jordan kind of ascent in the NBA. 

Tony Wroten, Jr., PG (Washington) 

Wroten Jr. could one day wind up being the best point guard in this draft and a close approximation of Tyreke Evans or Rodney Stuckey.

He has a lot of work to do before getting there, though. Fixing his jump shot will be at the top of his to-do list, along with developing a smoother, well-rounded offensive game in general. He'll also need to improve as a floor general and distributor.