NFL Week 3 Predictions: Every Pick for Every Game

 Bill Parcells: quote of the week

“It’s a team sport. You’re singing in the choir; you’re not a soloist.”

Don't you just love the Tuna? But anyway you slice it, all eyes will be on No. 9 in Big D on Monday Night. Can he play? Can he throw? Can he breathe?

But before we get to MNF, there are 15 other games to be picked, predicted and analyzed.

Jacksonville Jaguars at the Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert

Straight Up:  Carolina Panthers

Against the Spread: Carolina –3

Over/Under:  Probably cloudy and hot, so the weather isn’t a factor. I’m worried about the Jags’ one-man offense–under 43.

Color me speechless:  Cam Newton throwing TDs all over the field. Against the reigning Super Bowl defense. Talk about the best way to shut up your detractors! Good for him. I am not at all sure that I could have stood up to the pressure he’s been under for the past year. I’ll admit it; I was wrong about No. 1. And if he can light up the Packers’ secondary that way, I pity the Jaguars’ DB’s. Advantage: Panthers.

On the other side of the ball, Del Rio has decided to start rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB. That didn’t take long. Is anyone surprised? I think Blaine will be a successful NFL signal caller, but even without Beason and Davis I think that the Panthers’ D will ruin his opening day.

Maurice Jones-Drew is too good to hold down, especially since he’ll get the ball a lot with a new quarterback in the game. So, he’ll get his over 100-yard day for all of you fantasy people. For Carolina, Rivera needs to pull his two runners out of witness protection. Cam may be throwing it like a pro—but you are losing the games, dude.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans: Battle of the Underrated QBs

Straight Up:  Tennessee

Against the Spread:  Tennessee -7

Over/Under:  I hate it when the forecast says “thunderstorms.” That means everything from partly cloudy to soaking the field. Geez. Under 43.

Tennessee was the beneficiary of the Ravens’ Pittsburgh fatigue last week. But their defense is for real and Matt Hasselbeck is getting his best protection since the Super Bowl year. If Britt’s hammy doesn’t “hamper” him too much, he and Matt should be able to take serious advantage of Champ Bailey’s absence on Sunday. Then there’s the fact that Denver’s best pass rusher, Dumervil, is out. See Matt smile.

Furthermore, Chris Johnson has had two games to get back in shape and I think he gets healthy in Week 3. Unless his legs spring a leak, which is possible after a holdout.

Orton can’t catch a break. Just when it looks like he might be able to settle in and play quarterback in 2011, Brandon Lloyd pulls his groin and Moreno pulls a hamstring. There goes the offense.

Houston Texans' D Versus New Orleans Saints O: Matchup for the Serious Fan

Straight Up:  New Orleans

Against the Spread:  Saints -4

Over/Under:  Over 51.5

Notes on that Saints’ offense:

1)  In Week 2, with eight minutes played in the ball game, Brees had already completed passes to seven different receivers.

2)  I may not be a running backs coach, but when Troy Aikman compares a rookie RB to Emmit, I pay attention. Ingram sure looks like he’s been running through NFL holes for years. Who needs a high maintenance guy like Bush when you’ve got Ingram and Sproles (and Thomas and several others who are hurt)?

3)  Shame on me; I announced to my living room crowd that John Kasay was too old to make a 53-yarder. I stand corrected.

So we’ve got a three-level scoring machine versus the No. 1 defense in the National Football League. Yes, I mean the Texans. I disdain Wade Phillips as a head coach, but I give it up to him as a defensive coordinator. I never would have thought that he could change defensive schemes and have them playing this well, this soon.

My only concern about the ability of the Saints to win this one on their home turf is their secondary. I know this is blasphemous, but they are starting to look (don’t tell anyone) old. If Andre Johnson can get behind them, things could get rocky for the home team.

Detroit Lions Set To Maul the Minnesota Vikings

Straight Up:  Lions

Against the Spread:  Vikings +3

Over/Under:  44.5

If the Vikings don’t give the ball to Adrian Peterson 35 times in this game I simply won’t be able to watch. I’ve always like McNabb and this is just painful. The wheels came off of the Minnesota bandwagon after that NFC Championship game and the entire team has fallen apart. The only thing that they have going for them right now is desperation. Did I mention that Harvin has the flu?

The Lions keep on building. They are coalescing as the Vikings are deconstructing. Unless (with the return of Williams), Minnesota can completely shut down the weak link in the Lions’ rushing game, I think that the Lions will have their way with the Vikes.

As for Donovan, I have one word for you—duck!

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Can You Feel the Hate Tonight?

Straight Up: Philadelphia

Against the Spread:  New York +10

Over/Under:  Over 47.5—unless it’s actually pouring

Vick is going to play. Frankly, I think the Eagles win this one whether he plays or not. Kafka showed us that he knew where the end zone was and the Big Blue secondary is in pitiful shambles. New York is giving up almost 285 yards per game in the air.

Besides, Eli Manning is running out of people to whom he can throw the football: Manningham is out with a concussion and Hixon is gone for the year. The team is so desperate that they pulled Michael Clayton off the couch in Florida and yes, they will have Nicks back. Can you say Victor Cruz?

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Hope Springs Eternal

Straight Up:  New England

Against the Spread:  Buffalo +8

Over/Under:  over 54

Apparently the betting public believes that the Bills will keep it reasonably close since the line started at 10! The Bills had some big plays last Sunday in that comeback win  against the Raiders. Yeah, “big plays” and “Bills” in the same sentence. Wow.

I’d like to think that Buffalo can win this game. And, theoretically, they can. It’s just not likely.

Buffalo can win if their D-line gets Brady on his back (don’t forget that O-lineman Koppen is out with an ankle injury and TE Aaron Hernandez has a strained MCL) and if Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson can take advantage of a Patriots’ defense that is giving up 479 yards per game. Okay, let’s be fair—New England does have eight defensive players on the injury list.

Reality check:  The Patriots are managing 100 yards per game on the ground and 463 through the air. Per game.

Miami Dolphins Visit the Cleveland Browns: Rev Up the Dawg Pound

Straight Up:  Cleveland

Against the Spread: Cleveland -1

Over/Under:  Over 41

I’m backing Cleveland in this game but I must point out that the Browns have played two weak teams while the Dolphins have played the Pats and the Texans. So, let’s not get carried away. And Cleveland did let the Colts’ RBs come up with over 100 rushing yards by halftime.

However, this game features another matchup between a struggling franchise and a team on the rise. Even with a new coach, the Browns are better. Much better. McCoy is the real deal at QB (did you see that corner of the end-zone TD pass?) He’s still very young and will undoubtedly make mistakes, especially if the Miami pass rush gets in his face.

As always, the Cleveland offense rests on Peyton Hillis’ broad shoulders. Ditto for Miami with rookie runner Daniel Thomas. I know he’s had his moments in 2011, but I cannot warm up to Chad Henne as a NFL QB. He’s too insubstantial; I can’t get a handle on him. It’s like trying to figure out fog.

For more on why I think the Browns will win this weekend…

San Francisco 49ers at the Cincinnati Bengals: Welcome to the Jungle

Straight Up:  Cincinnati

Against the Spread:  Cincy -1

Over/Under: Here’s another one of those “scattered thunderstorms” situations. Over 40 unless actually raining.

I’m going with Cincinnati because the 49ers will be jet-lagged. Plus, Andy Dalton is already a better quarterback than Smith. Smith is having a decent start this year, but I don’t trust it.

Cedric Benson may be a trainwreck off the field but he is a good power runner and the Bengals will have his services on Sunday. The matchup will be against a very solid San Fran run D that is only giving up 2.5 yards per carry. Ah, but Cedric is averaging four yards per carry.

The Cincy run D will see if they can stop Frank Gore. Gore has inexplicably gained less than half his usual yardage. I think it’s the offensive plan, but Jim Harbaugh had better look into more carries for No. 21. Crabtree is useless and Edwards is doubtful. Yikes.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders: Gang Green in the Black Hole, Yuck

Straight Up:  New York Jets

Against the Spread:  New York Jets  –2.5

Over/Under:  Over 41

The Oakland Raiders’ defense was stronger than I had thought last week against the Bills. And their offense was scoring rushing touchdowns all over the first half. Of course, the Silver and Black didn’t have too much choice since the top three WRs were all hurt. It took until the second half, but Derek Hagan and Denarius Moore stepped up with some excellent execution. On the other hand, the D let Buffalo score 21 points in the third quarter when their pass rush completely evaporated.

The very bad news for Gang Green is that center Nick Mangold is missing the game (for the first time in years). We will see just how grown up No. 6 really is as he has to now do the line reads as well as his passing reads. Hmmm. Mark threw two INTs last week. This will be an opportunity for the post-Nnamdi Raider secondary that Rod Woodson is trying to get into shape.

Ultimately, of course, the pick rests on the Jets’ defense. McFadden will get his yards, I’m sure, but poor Jason Campbell may have a very long day.

Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams: Young Guns Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford

Straight Up:  Baltimore

Against the Spread:  Baltimore +4.5

Over/Under:  Over 42

I was disappointed in the Ravens last week. I believed that, with all of that veteran leadership, they would avoid the “letdown” factor after their big win on opening day. Guess not.

So, the boo birds are back in Baltimore, yelling for Flacco’s head. I’m glad he won’t hear them on the road this Sunday—this is getting old. His passer rating may not get any better this week either, since Lee Evans is out with injury. But he’s in better shape than Sam Bradford, who has one starting ball catcher left on the field.

The result is that offensive success for both teams will have to come through the running game. This is a large advantage for the Purple Birds and Ray Rice. Steven Jackson is the best runner in the biz for my money, but that quad injury worries me.

Defensively, we have one of the top D’s in the league (still) against the young up-and-comers. The St. Louis boys are getting better every year, but the scales still tip to Baltimore.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: It's Just Sad

Straight Up:  San Diego

Against the Spread:  San Diego -14.5

Over/Under:  Under 44.5

Oh honestly, can’t we just apply a mercy rule and let the Chiefs start negotiations with Andrew Luck now? It’s just too excruciating to watch.

KC now officially has zero offense except Thomas Jones (okay, with the occasional burst from McCluster). I happen to be a Jones fan who thinks he is perennially underrated, but I don’t think that he can do it alone. And, in case you’ve been out of the football universe, their best defender Eric Berry is also out for the year. The only thing that the Chiefs have in their corner is pride.

Pride and an average of five points per game isn't going to do it against the Chargers. But with almost every Bolt WR hurt in some way (and without Gates entirely) I don’t think Rivers will put up 40 points.

But they’ll win and cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bring on the Pounders

Straight Up:  Tampa Bay

Against the Spread:  Tampa Bay  -1

Over/Under:  under 46–thunderstorms. If it clears up suddenly you can reconsider this.

Tony Gonzalez made an emphatic case for veteran savvy on the football field last week. That endzone catch was one of the best I’ve ever seen. But, Mike White had better get Michael Turner grinding a lot earlier in the game.

I’m a bit perplexed by the Bucs D-line and rush defense. On paper they are young, strong, big and well-coached. So, why have they given up an average of 156 yards per game in 2011? Happy Michael Turner.

Tampa Bay has its own grinder in LeGarrette Blount. Watch Right Guard Joseph open up some holes for the second-year running back. We’ll see if the smaller Falcons’ D can stop this battering ram. Advantage Bucs.

Both teams have top-drawer runners, both teams have great young quarterbacks. Atlanta’s wide receivers are getting a lot of deserved press, but I think that if Mike Kafka can throw all over the Falcons’ D then so can Josh Freeman. Watch Freeman in the fourth quarter, where he shines.

Ultimately, I have to go with Tampa Bay because I think Atlanta will still be exhausted from that slug fest with the Eagles last week.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Run, Jay Cutler, Run!

Straight Up:  Green Bay

Against the Spread:  Green Bay +4

Over/Under: Over 45

I heard someone say this week that the slow turf at Soldier Field would be a disadvantage for Green Bay’s running game. Um, they run five wideout sets, guys.

Look, we all know that this is all about the Chicago O-line. I love it, Martz comes out this week and says, “If you’re looking for someone to blame, blame me.” We do, Mike. We do. There are two things that I get tired of saying year after year:

1)    you can’t beat the Patriots if Brady stays upright

2)    a Mike Martz offense can’t win unless Martz is forced to run the ball, throw some screens and ease up on the seven-step drop crap. It wouldn’t be crap if Martz gave a you-know-what about about O-line staffing. Which he doesn’t, despite being forced to draft Carimi. Just ask Warner and Bulger.

The ONLY good thing about this mess for the Bears is that anyone who continues to question Cutler’s toughness is blind.

I wrote an article in the pre-season postulating that Lovie had laid down the law to Martz about developing a running game. I got all sorts of angry responses in which fans told me that this had all been taken care of last season. Really?

The ray of hope for Da Bears is that Green Bay’s defense is all in the infirmary.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Defense Optional

Straight Up:  Arizona

Against the Spread:  Arizona +3

Over/Under:  over 43 (showers and wind. In Seattle. Who’d have thought.)

I’m happy for Kevin Kolb:  he has landed on his feet and looks like he’ll be the answer at QB for the Cards. Todd Heap may still be MIA, but there’s always 6’6” TE Jeff King who was a great pickup from the Panthers. Kolb has quietly put together a 110.3 QB rating. Not bad at all.

Beanie Wells is having a little trouble rising to the occasion after Hightower’s exit, but I think he’s getting the hang of it and Seattle’s inability to achieve first downs will play right in to Beanie’s hands.

You know what surprises me? Tavaris Jackson has a rating of over 80 points. How is that possible? Is there anyone on the Seahawks capable of playing offense other than Leon Washington? Apparently not, since Rice is hurt.

Speaking of Washington, Arizona’s only concern here should be their defense giving up almost 125 yards per game on the ground. Fantasy owners take note.

Pittsburgh Steelers Rolling, Indianapolis Colts Stumbling.

Straight Up:  Pittsburgh

Against the Spread:  Indianapolis +12.5

Over/Under:  Under 39.5

Hold on to your hats–the Colts are trying to develop a running game. I’m not kidding. It might have something to do with the fact that two O-linemen are rookies, another just joined the starting unit and Ryan Diem got hurt. That leaves Jeff Saturday as the lone holdout from last year’s line. We all saw Mr. Saturday’s significant leadership skills in action during the lockout, but this is a bit much to ask when you also lost your HOF QB. But at least trying to achieve a balanced offense is a good idea as Collins continues to struggle.

Meanwhile, Adam Vinatieri is finding out what it feels like to be your team’s only offense. Maybe Jason Hanson can give him some pointers.

Frankly, the only question I have going into this game is whether Dwight Freeney can bring down Big Ben. Because I am sure he’ll get there a few times. But getting No.7 on the ground is like watching a lion try to tackle an elephant.

Washington Redskins at the Dallas Cowboys: Hate Fest 2

Straight Up:  Washington

Against the Spread:  Well, most lines are off due to the uncertainty about Romo, but I’ll take the ‘Skins +4.5 anyway

Over/Under:  Under 45.5 unless Romo plays–then take the over.

How good does Tim Hightower look in Shanahan’s offense? Have to give it to Mike, he makes running back stars wherever he goes. Hightower looks like a ProBowler and rookie Ron Helu started dominating the Cards’ D before halftime. Who?

It’s a good thing, too. I lost count of the number of passes that Grossman had batted down last week. Rex Grossman take note: the Cowboys’ secondary is getting Terrence Newman back from injury. Danger, Will Robinson!

Washington’s D-line has improved to the point where I think whoever plays QB for Dallas is going to have problems. Romo is too hurt and Kitna hasn’t gotten enough practice–although this week I’m sure he got a bunch of reps.

As a ‘Skins fan I have to hope Romo doesn’t play, but as someone who finds Tony likeable, I kind of hope that he shows up and throws for 400 yards. He’s the new Donovan McNabb in the lack-of-respect department.

Bring on Week 3 and enjoy the games!