NBA Playoffs 2011 Upset Special: Which Lower Seeds Can Prevail in the First Rd.?
While it's not exactly March Madness, the first round of the NBA playoffs always has the potential to surprise.
Who can forget the eighth seeded Warriors running the top seeded Mavs out of a raucous Oracle Arena in 2007?
Or Dikembe Mutombo squeezing the ball in jubilation after his Nuggets pulled a miracle against the Sonics in '94?
Or Allan Houston sprinting across the court with clenched fists after knocking out the Heat in 1999?
We've all replayed these shockers in our heads a million times. They were fun, magical and most importantly, historic. Which is why NBA fans are always on the look out for the next big upset.
First round upsets are not easy to come by in the NBA. More so than any other sport, the best team wins in basketball, and 82 games is more than enough to ensure that teams are seeded properly. As if this was not enough, the NBA made life even tougher for its Cinderellas when it adopted a best-of-seven format for its first round in 2003.
But while the lower seeds again have a monumental task in front of them in this year's first round, let's not start the 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3 second rounders just yet. A flurry of roster-altering midseason trades, along with a few top contenders sputtering badly down the stretch, have left the NBA landscape remarkably unsettled heading into its second season.
Will this upheaval continue into the postseason?
We rank the most likely first round upsets as follows...
No. 1: Portland Trail Blazers (6) over Dallas Mavericks (3)
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You had to feel for Mark Cuban on Wednesday night when Kobe Bryant hit a game-tying three and the Lakers escaped Sacramento with an overtime win and the two seed in the West.
Not only did Kobe's heroics give the Lakers home court advantage over the Mavericks in a potential second round series, they knocked Dallas out of a cushy first round matchup with the Hornets and into a petrifying encounter with the dangerous Blazers.
Portland added to an already talented roster by trading for versatile forward Gerald Wallace at the end of February, and went on to close the season impressively with victories over Orlando, Miami, Dallas (twice), San Antonio (twice), Oklahoma City and the Lakers over its last 25 games.
Clearly, the Blazers can play with anybody.
Wallace joined all-star snub LaMarcus Aldridge and veteran Marcus Camby on a fearsome frontline. Add shifty point guard Andre Miller, the hobbling, yet crafty Brandon Roy and multi-dimensional swing man Nicolas Batum to the mix and you have a group so talented that TNT analyst Chris Webber predicted a Blazers first round win on Tuesday night—that's before he knew they'd be playing the Mavs and not the Lakers.
On the other hand, it's easy to forget that the Mavericks won 57 games. Injured forward Caron Butler is unlikely to play. Jason Kidd is 38 and set career lows in points per game and field goal percentage. Shawn Marion is playing with a dislocated finger that is so bent that it creates a disgusting 90 degree angle (though, somehow, he's been great). Tyson Chandler battled some pesky injuries down the stretch and saw his production fade slightly as a result. Peja Stojakovic has seen better days.
Overall, the Blazers have a more balanced attack.
Add the fact that Portland beat Dallas twice over the last month and an upset is entirely conceivable.
Of course, Dallas holds the trump card: The best player of the series, Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki had another great season and is the heart and soul of the Mavs—they were 2-7 without him this year.
Portland will run Batum, Wallace, Aldridge and others at Nowitzki, statistically the best clutch scorer in the league, and how effectively Dirk can carry the Mavs in the face of the double and triple teams will determine the series. Dallas has another cold blooded shooter, Jason Terry, that it will lean on to hit huge shots down the stretch.
It will be depth and momentum against Dirk and a winning Dallas pedigree. Conventional wisdom says the best player will carry Dallas through, but an upset would not surprise anybody. Expect a long series.
No. 2: Denver Nuggets (5) over Oklahoma City Thunder (4)
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Normally, a five seed beating a four seed wouldn't be considered a big upset, but considering that many are picking Oklahoma City to make a run at winning the West, a Denver win here would make headlines.
But this series has upset potential because of Denver, not Oklahoma City.
Since trading away Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, the Nuggets have won 17 of 24 games, with triumphs over the Celtics, Hawks (twice), Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks along the way.
Their depth, bolstered significantly by the Anthony deal, is staggering. In fact, Kobe Bryant recently said it was like the Nuggets have two starting fives, and he's not wrong: Aaron Afflalo, Raymond Felton, Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, Ty Lawson, Chris Andersen, J.R. Smith, Timofey Mozgov, Al Harrington, Danillo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are all arguably starting caliber players. All of this talent allows George Karl to substitute in hockey shift fashion, a pretty effective way to wear down opponents in the the high altitude of Denver.
They do it with offense. They are the highest scoring team in the league, and make the third highest percentage of their threes. They're also a dominant home team, with a 33-8 record in Denver this year.
Unfortunately for Denver, they draw an Oklahoma City team that seems primed to make a deep playoff run. The Thunder are on a post-trade surge of their own, having won 19 of 26 since acquiring Kendrick Perkins from the Celtics. The trade has worked perfectly for Oklahoma City. The departure of Jeff Green has cleared the way for James Harden to become a major contributor, and adding Perkins has allowed Serge Ibaka to focus on becoming a dominant help defender. Before the move, Green was often forced to play out of position at the four and got torched by bigger forwards as a result. Now the Thunder have no more such matchup problems.
Most importantly, the Thunder have the two best players in the series by far in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. As we all know, superstars typically get it done in the playoffs.
The series is destined to be a shootout, featuring two of the top five scoring teams in the league. Denver will try to run Oklahoma City out of the gym, while the Thunder will lean on their stars and an improved defense.
Two things seem to be working against an upset here.
The first is that the Nuggets aren't able to athletically overwhelm the Thunder the way they do with most other teams—as evidenced by Oklahoma City beating them twice in the last two weeks.
The second is that Denver's scoring attack is almost too even. It's difficult to win in the playoffs without a go to guy, and while Oklahoma City will call on their first and second options when the game is on the line, the Nuggets will have to ride the hot hand and score by committee—not a winning game in the playoffs.
Look for the Thunder to get by, but only after a battle. Like the Blazers, the Nuggets have the talent to beat anybody.
No. 3: New York Knicks (6) over Boston Celtics (3)
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Upsets are all about unpredictability, and no series has more unknowns than the Celtics vs. Knicks.
Which Celtics team will show up? The "ubuntu" juggernaut that seemed poised to win title No. 18 for most of the year, or the disjointed mess that stumbled down the stretch and spit up the two seed, getting trounced by the Heat and Bulls along the way?
Which Knicks team will show up? The team that came a quarter away from achieving the near-impossible Florida Sweep, or the horror show that dropped nine of 10 to mostly bad teams shortly thereafter?
Will the Celts be able to flick the playoff switch for a second year in a row?
Will the Knicks suddenly decide to start playing defense because the games are more important now?
The uncertainties are there because both teams essentially overhauled half of their rosters late in the season.
The good news for the Knicks is that, while they seemingly have figured out their post-trade identity (winning seven in a row at one point en route to locking up the sixth seed), the Celtics have not. Boston went 11-11 in their final 22 games, dropping from first to third in the East. Late season boredom isn't much of an excuse, either, as this is the same Celtics team that blamed a lack of home court advantage for last year's Finals defeat.
Jeff Green has been passive and inconsistent, Ray Allen has been mired in a colossal slump and, besides an explosion in San Antonio, Rajon Rondo has been shockingly ineffective.
The offense has struggled. Their field goal percentage, a huge strength for most of the year, plummeted down the stretch. Some have attributed this to a team wide slump in pick setting, a Perkins speciality.
In addition, the Knicks have the talent, and a playoff-starved home crowd, to bother any team in the playoffs.
But while the Knicks are arguably the most talented lower seed in the NBA, the Celtics have a lot going in their favor.
First, the Celtics play defense (1st in Opponents' PPG; third in Opponents FG percentage) and the Knicks don't (T 27th in Opponents' PPG; 26th in Opponents' FG percentage). It won't take much digging through the playoff record books to realize that this fact alone will probably spell doom for the Knicks.
Second, while most upsets involve some element of surprise, there will be no sneaking up on the Celtics in this series. Not only is it the playoffs, but it's the Knicks, a team they always relish beating, even in the midst of their regular season sleepwalking streaks.
Third, while the Celtics are a poor rebounding team (29th in the league), the Knicks simply aren't big enough to take advantage of it.
Lastly, and most importantly, the Celtics will have had over a week of rest and practice to prepare for the playoffs. When commenting on resting his big four for the last two games of the season, Doc Rivers stressed that the ability to get in some full practices was more significant than the actual rest. He may be right.
A healthy, rested and prepared Boston team will probably be too much to overcome, but the Knicks have enough talent to make it interesting. Heck, if they figure out the concept of defense for a couple of weeks, they may even shock the world.
No. 4: Memphis Grizzlies (8) over San Antonio Spurs (1)
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While the thought of Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich losing a first round series to the Grizzlies seems preposterous, this isn't necessarily a terrible matchup for Memphis.
Apparently the Grizzlies agree, as they punted the last two games of the season, resting Zach Randolph and Tony Allen, and dropped to the eighth seed in the process. Conveniently, this mini-slump assured that the Grizzlies would not play the two-time defending champion Lakers in the first round.
These Spurs are not the defensive stalwarts (98 PPG Allowed) of the championship years, and the Grizzlies gave them some trouble this year, winning their last two encounters. Memphis' athleticism and turnover creation bothered San Antonio this year, and their front court duo of Randolph and Marc Gasol gives lots of teams fits. They have a perimeter stopper in Tony Allen, and a surprising amount of self-belief (not only did they beat the Spurs twice, they won in Dallas twice, beat the Lakers twice, won in Boston and beat the Heat).
On top of this, the Spurs limped to the finish line, losing eight of their last 12, and will probably be without Manu Ginobili for Game 1.
Maybe this will be interesting...
But let's be real, a Memphis win would make heads explode. Memphis is an average defensive team (13th in PPG Allowed; 14th in Opponents' FG percentage), and its hard to imagine that they'll be able to stop the (suddenly) run and gun Spurs with any consistency. You'd also think the Spurs will ratchet up their defense a little for the playoffs. Popovich will demand it. With Duncan plugging up the middle, and Memphis lacking an elite perimeter score, it will be hard for the Grizzlies to score enough in the half court to pull out a tight game in the fourth quarter against the battle tested Spurs, especially on the road.
With or without Ginobili, the Spurs should win. But if the Grizzlies can create turnovers and get out and run, it may take longer than you think.
No. 5: Atlanta Hawks (5) over Orlando Magic (4)
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Under normal circumstances, the Magic would be vulnerable heading into this year's first round.
They have no one who can play defense besides Dwight Howard. They have no bench. They are slow and small (again, besides Howard). Their best player can't hit free throws. They are maddeningly inconsistent (home losses to the Raptors, Pistons, and Kings this year) and prone to mental lapses.
But the circumstances aren't normal, they're playing the Hawks, a team they swept out of the playoffs last year by an average margin of victory of 25.3 points per game—the biggest blowout in NBA playoff history. It's not as if the Hawks retooled, either, as they return with most of the same players that seemed genuinely annoyed that they had to show up for the Eastern Conference semifinals last year.
The Hawks seem to be approaching the playoffs with the same razor-sharp focus as last year, too, having lost 14 of their last 21, including six in a row to end the season.
This Hawks group just seems like it needs a personnel shake up, as it sputtered offensively all year (26th in PPG) and goes through way too many disinterested stretches.
But it's not all bad for the Hawks. They did beat the Magic three out of four times this year, and they significantly upgraded their defense at the point guard position by swapping Mike Bibby for Kirk Hinrich.
They do have talent with Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Josh Smith, and maybe last year embarrassed them enough to come out with some passion this time.
But if the past is any indication, Howard's mere presence will be enough for the Magic in this matchup. The Hawks don't have anyone to stop him, and his dominance will undoubtedly lead to open threes for Nelson, Jason Richardson, Ryan Anderson and Hedo Turkoglu.
But while the Hawks don't inspire confidence, neither do the Magic. This should hold to form, but a Magic meltdown is not completely out of the question.
No. 6: Philadelphia 76ers (7) over Miami Heat (2)
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The Sixers couldn't have been happy about the Celtics' late season collapse, as it pit them against a surging Heat team that seems motivated by the late season struggles of many of the other top contenders.
The Heat won 15 of their last 18 season games, many by a wide margin.
In addition, while elite teams gave them some trouble this year, the Heat annihilated lesser opponents, very rarely losing games they should have won. They were 4-11 against the Celtics, Bulls, Magic and Spurs, and 54-13 against everyone else.
In other words, while the Sixers may have hoped to sneak up on an unfocused contender looking towards the future, the Heat are particularly resistant to such ambushes.
Further, the Heat are an especially bad matchup for the Sixers. Miami beat Philadelphia all three times they met this year, winning the meetings by an average of over 10 points a game.
It doesn't help that the Sixers are mediocre at best offensively (18th in PPG; 15th in FG percentage), with no elite scorers to speak of, a deficiency that plays right into the hands of the top flight Miami defense (sixth in PPG Allowed; second in Opponents FG percentage).
While the Sixers are an above average defensive team (12th in PPG Allowed; ninth in Opponents' FG percentage) with the help of wing defender Andre Iguodala, it just doesn't seem possible that they'll be able to stop both LeBron James and Dwayne Wade enough to keep up.
The Sixers are a nice, feisty young team, and Doug Collins did a great job with them this year, but a motivated Heat team is a bad matchup and a tall order.
No. 7: Indiana Pacers (8) over Chicago Bulls (1)
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Now we're into complete and utter miracle territory.
The Bulls finished with the best record in the NBA.
The Pacers were eight games below .500 in the East.
The Bulls won 21 of their last 23 games.
The Pacers lost 15 of their last 26 games.
The Bulls have the second best defense in the NBA.
The Pacers have the 17th.
The Bulls won three of four match ups this year.
The Bulls have Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer, the Pacers have Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough.
Most importantly, the Bulls have the odds-on MVP Derrick Rose, a leader that is simply too focused to let his team lose to a vastly inferior club in the playoffs.
Congratulations to the Pacers on making the playoffs, they have some good young pieces, but this should be short and sweet.
No. 8: New Orleans Hornets (7) over Los Angeles Lakers (2)
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It's good to be the Lakers.
As late as Tuesday night, it looked like Andrew Bynum's knee was shot and the Lakers would end up with either a 3-6 matchup verses the Blazers or a 2-7 matchup with the Grizzlies, neither easy tasks.
So what happens? The Spurs rest their starters and hand the Lakers a win on Tuesday night; Kobe hits a three to prevent blowing a 20 point fourth quarter lead on Wednesday night, resulting in an OT win and the No. 2 seed; Bynum's knee checks out fine, and Memphis tanks their last two games and hands the Hornets the seventh seed.
Not only did the Lakers latest Houdini act land them home court against their probable second round opponent, they ended up with the easiest possible first round matchup in the West.
But you make your own luck, and the Lakers' uncanny ability to win whenever they feel like it continues to pay dividends.
New Orleans' best scorer, David West, is out with a torn ACL.
The Lakers went a perfect 4-0 against the Hornets this year, with two of the matchups blowouts.
Chris Paul is great, and tough, but he is not fully healthy and will essentially have to beat the Lakers one on five every night.
Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will overwhelm Emeka Okafor, Carl Landry and Jason Smith.
Even with Trevor Ariza and others shadowing him, Kobe will be able to scan the defense, pick his spots, and feed his big men.
Incredible job by Chris Paul willing this team into the playoffs, but the two-time defending champs are too tough, especially at home.
Lakers are always prone to snoozing to a road loss, but they'll wrap this up handily.
