Does Future of These Chicago Bulls Rest on 2014-15 NBA Playoffs Performance?
Heading into the playoffs, two futures seem possible for the Chicago Bulls. One ends with John “Hannibal” Smith declaring, “I love it when a plan comes together.” The other, less fortuitous outcome brings to mind a more Steinbeckian homage to plans and how they oft go awry.
The Bulls have been sticking with a plan for five years, tweaking it and amending it, but always with the same results: a hard-fought, overachieving regular season met with disappointment in the postseason. The Bulls are at the point where they have to either make it work or decide to start over. A brief recap of the last half-decade reveals why.
The History
In the summer of 2010, Tom Thibodeau was introduced as head coach. The Bulls tried to add LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh in free agency, but they all banded together with the Miami Heat. Chicago had to settle for Carlos Boozer.
Before the season even started, Boozer, tripped over his gym bag answering the door, breaking his hand. Not long after Boozer returned, Joakim Noah broke his thumb grabbing a rebound and missed six weeks. From there, the two seemed to swap in and out of the lineup all year.
The Bulls had their full starting five just 29 games.
But the Bulls came together under their new coach, defied the odds and led the NBA with 62 wins. Derrick Rose, their hometown superstar, was named the youngest MVP in NBA history.
They lost a heartbreaking series in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Heat, but the future looked bright.
In 2011-12, they suffered through a myriad of injuries but won 50 games, tying the San Antonio Spurs for the most wins in the NBA. They had their starting five just 15 games.
They finally got healthy in time for the playoffs. In Game 1 of their series against the No. 8 seed Philadelphia 76ers, though, Rose tore his ACL, crushing the hopes of city and team alike.
The next year was a war with adversity. Injuries beset the Bulls constantly. Rose missed the entire season, and other injuries mounted. But they scrapped and clawed and somehow managed to win a No. 5 seed.
There, with Nate Robinson throwing up into a bucket on the sideline and Luol Deng nearly dying in a hospital bed because of complications from a spinal tap, the Bulls cobbled together one of the most courageous series in first-round history. They beat the Brooklyn Nets in seven games to make it to the second round, where they would fall to the Heat.
In 2013-14, things were going to be better. Jimmy Butler was poised for a breakout year. Everything looked bright. Everyone was healthy, finally.
Then, Rose tore his meniscus just 11 games into the season, and the Bulls were struck with a new rash of injuries. They had their starters just eight games.
The Bulls again, miraculously climbed their way to a No. 4 seed through the sheer force of Noah’s will. But the All-NBA center paid a heavy price. The heavy load wore away at his knee, and he was visibly slowed for the playoffs. Going against the Washington Wizards' and physical bigs, Marcin Gortat and Nene, proved too much. The Bulls were sent home in just five games. Noah had offseason knee surgery.
The Present
Last summer, the Bulls amnestied Boozer. They signed Pau Gasol in free agency. They brought over Nikola Mirotic, the European star they’d drafted back in 2011. They traded up in the draft to get the rights to Doug McDermott, the NCAA’s fifth all-time leading scorer. Rose was back.
This year, it seemed, things were going to be different. The Bulls were going to be healthy. They were deep. The Heat were disbanded. Chicago was ready for a run. This was their time.
That was great, in theory, not so much in practice. Instead, the Bulls have had another injury-riddled season. Rose missed 31 games, Mike Dunleavy 19, Butler 17 and Noah 13. The injuries are the same as they are every year.
Only this year is different in other ways. Instead of over-performing, they have underperformed. Oh sure, they might get to 50 wins—if they win out.
Bu it’s not the same effort. It’s almost as if all the courage has been played out of them through the last four years. Where before they gave everything for every win, this season, they’ve gone the other route, getting thrashed repeatedly by lesser teams.
They’ve lost to the Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons (twice), Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers (twice), Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets (twice), Los Angeles Lakers, Miami, Orlando Magic (twice), Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Milwaukee Bucks.
In all, that’s 17 losses to teams with losing records by a combined 165 points.
That’s where you have to start thinking it’s more than just an injury problem. It might be an exhaustion problem. A team can only stay in peak battle mode for so long. 'Situation Critical' has a shelf-life, and it seems like five years is past it.
And you have to wonder how much of that falls on the coach. Has Thibodeau’s demanding style worn on the players’ psyche? Has it contributed as much to the injuries as it has to the winning?
In 441 games both regular and postseason, the Bulls have had their preferred starters just 89 times. The first year or two, it was easy to scratch that off as just bad luck. But after five years, it gets harder. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 352 times, I start thinking about a new head coach.
The relationship between Thibodeau and management is strained. K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune wrote in January:
"But it also underscored how, despite last week's team meeting instead of a practice, Thibodeau isn't going to change, even while the speculation about his long-term future with the Bulls continues. Despite the two seasons left on the four-year extension Thibodeau took several months to sign in the 2012-13 season, several league sources believe Thibodeau's relationship with management is beyond repair.
And while there are no plans to replace Thibodeau during the season, a mutual parting of the ways after this season wouldn't surprise many league personnel familiar with the deteriorating dynamic.
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The Future
Yet, Thibodeau’s eminent departure is not a completely decided fate. In his Mailbag on March 28, Johnson elaborated more on where the front office and Thibodeau stand at present:
"Both sides have managed tension and conflict all season. This doesn’t negatively affect the daily workings of the Bulls, as their current third seed and optimism heading into the playoffs attests. Thibodeau and Gar Forman talk if not daily, darn near close to it. They even -- gasp! -- laugh together sometimes.
It’s beyond repair in the sense that both sides are tired of the struggle. Too much distrust has built up over time and too much philosophical conflict has worn down long-term harmony that it won’t be a Jerry Sloan-type situation with the Jazz. This is why talk of Thibodeau definitely being gone after this season is premature. Nothing has been definitively determined. If you’re asking me to guess, I still guess he is coaching elsewhere next season. And this is another moment to stress that the relationship has broken down in both directions, meaning Thibodeau has entertained leaving too.
But the reason why the situation is fluid is inherent in your question: At the end of the day, does management fire a very successful coach with two years left on his deal? Does Thibodeau leave a city he loves living in and a roster he knows is very strong? A short playoff run or spectacular flameout would certainly flare the negativity anew. But a long, successful playoff run could lead to both sides taking pause and salvaging another season or two. That’s why, as they say, you play the games.
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All is not lost. The Bulls have struggled against the weaker teams, but they’ve fared well against many of the better ones. Their 53.1 winning percentage against those over .500 is fifth-best in the NBA. They’ve recorded wins over every potential playoff squad except the Atlanta Hawks (whom they close the season against).
The Bulls are 16-5 with their starting five.
Even short-handed, they’ve had big wins. They handed the Golden State Warriors one of their only two losses at home in overtime on Jan. 27. They stomped the Cleveland Cavaliers by 15, right before the All-Star break. They dealt the New Orleans Pelicans a 35-point beatdown in the Big Easy. They crushed the San Antonio Spurs by 22. And they swept the season series against the Toronto Raptors.
Chicago can win and has won against the best. This season, the future of the team and Thibodeau all ride on how much success they have in the playoffs.
Noah isn't afraid of a seven-game series with the Cavaliers. Per Nick Friedell of ESPN, after the Bulls last loss to the Cavs, Noah said, "But if the opportunity presents itself and we can play Cleveland, I would be very happy. We would be very happy as a team to be able to do that."
And who knows what could happen? The Bulls actually can beat anyone. They have the personnel. When Rose is attacking the basket and being efficient, they’re a tough team to beat. When his effective field-goal percentage has been 50 percent or better this year, the Bulls are 18-3. Over his career with Thibodeau, they’re 67-12.
The Bulls could still make a deep run. They might even get a championship. And if they do get a seventh banner, that should secure a future for Thibodeau in the Windy City. After all, what kind of owner would let go of a coach who just won a championship?
Oh, wait. Never mind.
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