Chicago Bulls Are Eastern Conference's Biggest Wild Card
Heading into the 2014-15 season, the Chicago Bulls were presumptive favorites in the Eastern Conference.
There will always be exceptions, but it seemed as if those who didn't have the Windy City representatives taking home the No. 1 seed in the NBA's weaker half instead placed them at No. 2, behind only the revamped Cleveland Cavaliers. Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards were widely expected to be competitive squads looking for home-court advantage in the opening rounds of the playoffs.
The Atlanta Hawks were nothing more than an afterthought. No one expected this type of dominance from Atlanta. And if you claim you did, just stop it. Your nose is growing faster than Pinocchio's when Mrs. Pinocchio asked what he thought about her jeans.
But the Bulls haven't exactly met their lofty expectations. At times, they've looked the part of prohibitive favorites, but they've also struggled immensely on both ends of the floor for inexplicably long periods.
Once bona fide contenders, they've morphed into the conference's biggest wild card. Suddenly, it seems as though they could do anything from representing the East in the NBA Finals to bowing out in the first round of the postseason for the second year in a row.
At Their Worst
"The Bulls have become predictable in their unpredictability. One game after snapping the Warriors' 19-game home winning streak, the Bulls sleepwalked through most of a 123-118 double-overtime loss to the Lakers at Staples Center," wrote K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune on Jan. 30.
It was the Bulls' fifth loss in eight games, but it was only the beginning of their misery right about the time when calendars were flipping to February.
Chicago would go on to lose to the Phoenix Suns one night later, which was quite understandable during the second half of a road back-to-back that had just featured two overtime periods. Then the Bulls dropped a third contest in a row, this time to the Dwight Howard-less Houston Rockets.
"We've got more than enough," Bulls forward Taj Gibson told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times after the Houston loss. "It's one of the most talented teams that I've been on. I look back to the team when we went to the Eastern Conference finals [in 2011], and this team is way more capable. We just need more determination, plus we just need guys healthy."
Having Mike Dunleavy back in the lineup would certainly help, but the absence of the sharpshooting small forward still doesn't completely explain the enormity of the Bulls' struggles when they're down.
"It's all about putting the whole game together," Derrick Rose opined after that same loss, via Cowley. "Who knows [why it’s happening]? That's the answer we're trying to figure out right now. Give it time, and we'll have an answer."
One answer might not be sufficient, though.
After all, the Bulls' poor outings have been especially poor in 2014-15. Chicago has already dropped six games to squads that don't figure to make the playoffs—seven, if you include the Brooklyn Nets—and they've been subject to some embarrassing performances. A 20-point deficit to the Utah Jazz during a contest in which they scored only 77 points on Jan. 7 serves as a great example.
According to my FATS projections (based on historical similarities and explained in full here), the Bulls have played like a 21-win team during their losses. And that doesn't even factor in the schedule, which is rather easy since they've lost to so many bottom-feeding squads. Compare that to the Hawks, who have performed like a 24-win squad when losing.
Every team is bad when it's scoring fewer points than the opponent. But for a contending team, the Bulls have taken that to an extreme on many occasions.
At Their Best
When they've been bad, they've been awful. But when the Bulls have been on their games, they're rather difficult to beat. This is still a squad that features more offensive firepower than past iterations and has retained the fundamental makeup of a stout defense.
In the middle of December, the Bulls reeled off three wins in five days against the Memphis Grizzlies, Raptors and Wizards. They took down the San Antonio Spurs by 23 points and then knocked off the Dallas Mavericks on the road one night later in late January. They're even one of the few teams to top the Warriors.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Chicago's schedule has been slightly easier than the league average. In fact, it's the 18th-toughest in the NBA thus far. But in the Eastern Conference, only four teams have faced a tougher slate, and we're still early enough into the campaign that the putridity of a few squads (Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Miami Heat) has made a big impact on the strength of schedule.
"I think that we're still a work in progress," Joakim Noah explained earlier this season, per ESPNChicago.com's Nick Friedell. "We're not where we need to be defensively. And offensively. We know we have a lot of work to do. The thing is we know that we're capable of beating the best...but we need to execute better and we need to play better defense."
This isn't misplaced confidence. The Bulls know they're capable of beating the best since they've, well, beaten the best.
When everything clicks for this team, Pau Gasol provides efficient scoring in the paint while Rose and Jimmy Butler make huge contributions on the wings. Noah adds a new element with his ability to serve as an offensive hub, and it looks as though Chicago boasts the services of four All-Star-caliber players.
And that's saying nothing of the defense, which sees a shift that's nearly as pronounced as the offensive one when the team is rolling.
In victories, the Bulls are scoring an additional 11.9 points per 100 possessions, via NBA.com's statistical databases. They've also produced a 97.8 defensive rating, 11 points below what they have to show for their efforts in losses.
But it's not as though these changes are coming in streaks.
Above, you can see the progression of offensive and defensive ratings throughout the season. It's one peak and valley after another. There's no telling which version of the Bulls will show up on any given night.
When at its best, this is still a swarming defense that packs the paint and makes life miserable for the opposition. And, as was the hope heading into the year, this team is one that can also score in bunches while it suffocates the opponent.
Consistency—not elite upside—is what has eluded this team.
So Many Factors, so Much Uncertainty
Dunleavy's health matters a lot for this team. Per Basketball-Reference.com, the team has been 3.4 points better per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, not sitting out with a sprained ankle. But the health of Noah and Rose is important as well, obviously.
For that matter, Rose's level of performance is crucial. Few players have provided roller coasters like he has throughout the 2014-15 season, as there's absolutely no telling what Chicago is going to get from the former MVP on any given night.
Game score is by no means a perfect metric, but it's a convenient way of taking box-score results and piecing them together in a one-size-fits-all format. For reference, the scale is intended to mirror points scored, such that 10 is quite average and 30 is excellent.
Here's how Rose's game score has trended throughout the campaign, per Basketball-Reference.com:
There have been some fantastic performances from the point guard. His 29-point, 10-assist game (on 12-of-20 shooting with no turnovers) against the Boston Celtics on Jan. 16 stands out in a big way, showing more than just a few glimpses of the Derrick Rose of old.
But Rose has had a few poor outings as well. Remember his 11-turnover showing against the Warriors, one that was glossed over because he made a clutch pull-up jumper for the win? Or how about when he shot 28-of-110 (25.5 percent) in a six-game stretch from Dec. 29 through Jan. 7?
There's quite a bit of variance here, and that's something that can be said about nearly every member and aspect of this Chicago team. No one knows which version is going to show up on any night, but you can bet your bottom dollar there are a few Eastern coaches shaking in their boots at the prospect of playing this team when everything gets put together.
At this point in the season, we know who the Hawks are. Now that the Cavaliers have cleared nearly every obstacle—Kevin Love's role notwithstanding, though he's been better as of late—and have won 13 of their past 14 games, it's easy to understand just how dangerous they can be. The Raptors and Wizards are fairly known commodities as well, though DeMar DeRozan and Bradley Beal can provide extra sparks to their respective squads.
But the Bulls? We've seen how good they are on certain occasions, and we've also seen how hopeless they can be some nights. The pieces are still coming together for an organization that looked so deadly on paper heading into the season.
Fortunately for Chicago, there's plenty of time remaining to figure it out before the playoffs start.
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