NBA 2011-12 at 50 (Days): Coping with the Fatigue Factor

Sunday was the 50th day of this frantic NBA 2011-12 season.

Sunday was also only the third of those 50 days when no NBA team trudged into an arena for a game after having played the previous day.

There were no tired NBA legs on Sunday—which makes the Atlanta Hawks' embarrassing home court no-show against LeBron James and the Miami Heat that much more puzzling.

Commissioner David Stern and his minions have squeezed 413 games into these 50 dates.  Barely over half of these games, like the six played on Sunday, have featured two teams with fresh legs; more than 50 have matched two teams playing a “back end.”

In more than one-third, 149 games, a tired team has challenged a rested team.  Predictably, the rested teams hold an edge in these contests.

Surprisingly, tired teams have captured 65 (over 40 percent) of these games, and eight teams have won more of these “disadvantage games” than they’ve lost.

It should come as no surprise that youthful, athletic teams like the Chicago Bulls (6-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (5-2) have excelled.

A bit of the luster comes off Atlanta’s 3-1 showing, however, when the victories have come against teams, the Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Wizards, who have lost a combined 46 of 55 games.

The Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, surprising Philadelphia 76ers and enigmatic Orlando Magic have eked out one more win than loss in their “minus games.”

The most determined effort thus far has been delivered by the defending champion Dallas Mavericks (5-1), who have claimed tired-legged victories over the Thunder, Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz and Suns—those last three on the road.

The Other Side of the Coin

Of course, for every team playing with a schedule-induced fatigue factor, there’s an opponent with the advantage of a day’s rest.

Two squads, the woebegone Bobcats and seemingly cursed Cleveland Cavaliers, have yet to win a “plus game,” though the Cavs have a valid excuse in that they play their first such game Wednesday against the Indiana Pacers.  Charlotte, predictably, has come up empty in half a dozen tries.

A disappointing, sub-.500 showing in these “advantage games” has been registered by the Detroit Pistons (1-4), Milwaukee Bucks (1-3), Minnesota Timberwolves (2-4), New Orleans Hornets (2-3), Suns (2-3), New York Knicks (3-4) and Golden State Warriors (4-5).

Utah (5-4), the Denver Nuggets (6-2), the Hawks (6-2) and Warriors have received the most of these enticing encounters, Boston (1-1), Miami (2-0), the New Jersey Nets (2-0) and the 76ers (2-1) have the fewest.

In “disadvantage games,” the Los Angeles Lakers (3-5) have played the most, the Wizards (0-2), Warriors (1-1), Knicks (0-3) and San Antonio Spurs (1-2) the least.

How Wild is the West?

Conference affiliation has been insignificant in “minus games,” the East going 31-41 (.431), the West 34-43 (.442).  Southeast and Pacific Division teams have played at an even .500, the Atlantic a paltry 7-16 (.304).

In the matter of the "supposed-to-win" games, the West’s 51-36 (.586) mark outpaced the East’s pedestrian 33-29 (.532). South and Northwest teams are converting the short odds at a 60 percent clip, the Central—through absolutely no fault of the Ohioans—stands at 7-10 (.412).

So What Does This All Mean?

An emerging team begins to “find itself” when it consistently wins the games in which it has an advantage, like home court, fresher legs, more experience.  Consider George Karl’s Carmelo Anthony-less Nuggets, who are 2-5 in “minus games,” 6-2 with rest.  Likewise, Nate McMillan’s talented Portland Trailblazers are 4-0 with more rest, 0-4 with less.

Even Eric Spoelstra’s Heat, while undefeated (2-0) with a rest advantage, are a mere 3-3 against a fresher opponent, one of the victories a one-point affair at Charlotte.

Through 50 days of play, six teams, four from the generally weaker Eastern Conference, have maintained winning records both ways:  the Bulls (3-1 plus, 6-0 minus), Hawks (6-2, 3-1), Magic (3-1, 4-3), Sixers (2-1, 3-2), Clippers (3-2, 3-2) and that team in Dallas (3-2, 5-1) that so many folks keep finding reasons to overlook.