Miami Heat: Predicting the Outcome of Every Game in February

The trials and tribulations of December and January are over. The Miami Heat can now look forward to an easier strength of schedule.

By easier strength of schedule, I mean that the teams will get easier. The schedule itself will get a lot more difficult as they'll get their first ever experience at playing three games in three nights when they take on Atlanta, Milwaukee and Indiana on February 12th, 13th and 14th. They have four games in five nights in that same sequence.

The teams that they face, however, aren't nearly as difficult as the teams that they have taken on. Before reaching February, the Heat had already faced the Atlanta Hawks twice, the L.A. Lakers and Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers.

So much for this team being unable to compete with the NBA's elite. The Heat finished 8-3 against those teams. All except the Celtics have a winning record and the majority of these clubs have all led their division at one time or another this season.

Rather than looking at this month as a way to gauge just how well the Heat play against specific competition, take note of how they play when they're worn down and beat up by this tenacious schedule.

We'll take a look at how the Heat will fare in this month as we analyze each and every one of their games.

February 1st: At Milwaukee

Previous meeting: Milwaukee 91, Miami 82

The Milwaukee Bucks are a strange bunch.

They're not good at all on offense and they have a solid defensive unit, which isn't quite on the level of other elite defenses, yet they always manage to find a way to be in contention of stealing a victory in the waning minutes of every game.

The Bucks play straight up ugly basketball. They'll shoot 35 percent, but they'll have their opponent shooting just as worse. The tempo is so out of rhythm and slow that neither team can establish a consistent rhythm. Unlike most opponents that shoot abysmal and then lose, the Bucks are somehow able to transition their shooting woes to their opponent.

It usually doesn't work, considering they're 9-11, but it is somewhat effective against just about every opponent they take on. That includes the Heat, who lost to the Bucks by nine points in their first meeting of the season at the American Airlines Arena.

Brandon Jennings and Stephen Jackson came alive late for the Bucks to outscore the Heat, 26-19, in the fourth. Despite their 35 percent shooting and 5-of-30 shooting from deep, they managed to hold the Heat to 37 percent shooting and 3-of-12 shooting from deep.

However, this time around the Bucks won't be playing with Andrew Bogut. The defensive-minded center has been an anchor for the Bucks thanks to his size and shot-blocking prowess, but will be out for the next few eight to 12 weeks due to a fractured left ankle.

Without Bogut in the middle, James and Wade shouldn't have too much trouble against a stingy Bucks defense. It'll be low scoring, of course, but the Heat should get revenge on the last team to beat them.

Miami 91, Milwaukee 80

February 3rd: At Philadelphia

Previous meeting: Miami 113, Philadelphia 92

The first meeting between these two teams was supposed to represent how capable the Philadelphia 76ers are of challenging the Eastern Conference's elite.

They were leading the Atlantic Division at the time, they still do, and were expected to present a challenge to the current Southeast Division leaders in the Miami Heat. The Sixers lost to the Heat, 4-1, in the first round of the playoffs last year, but put up a fight in every game aside from a Game 2 blowout loss.

The Sixers offense was rated as one of the most efficient, their defense was near the top and the players believed in coach Doug Collins' philosophy. It's just a shame for them that they had to endure a buzzsaw for 48 minutes in their first meeting with the Heat. Playing without Dwyane Wade, the Heat got 58 combined points from LeBron James and Chris Bosh.

Louis Williams scored 22 for the Sixers, which shot 45 percent from the field. The Heat shot 54 percent in comparison.

The rebounding truly tells the story. Playing without starting center Spencer Hawes, the 76ers were inept on the boards as they managed to get out-rebounded 52-31 by a Heat team who has a 6'9" center. Joel Anthony, LeBron James and Udonis Haslem all grabbed at least nine boards, while the Sixers only had two players who recorded more than five rebounds.

The Sixers are a quality team and they should have a second-round appearance come postseason time, but they simply don't have the talent to beat the Heat, especially when Dwyane Wade will be back this time around.

Philadelphia will put up a fight early, but expect it to get out of control much like the last meeting.

Miami 109, Philadelphia 95

February 5th: vs. Toronto

A home game against the Toronto Raptors will most likely be the easiest game of the month for the Heat.

Even though the Raptors are actually exceeding expectations at 7-14, still good enough for last in the dreary Atlantic Division, they're not going to stand a chance against a Heat team that is far more talented and coming off a day's rest.

It will be an absolute nightmare for the Raptors if they don't get Andrea Bargnani back either. He's the lone shred of hope for the Raptors putting up a fight. He's had a few quality games against the Heat in recent years and would be able to thrive against a Miami team that is giving up more three-pointers per game than any other team in the NBA.

Bargnani hurt his calf on January 27th and there's still no word on his eventual return. If he doesn't play, the Raptors will roll out with a lineup consisting of Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless, DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson and Amir Johnson.

In other words, it's going to be really bad. The Heat won every meeting against the Raptors last season and don't think that Chris Bosh isn't going to take this one easy. This is the first time this season that Bosh will be taking on his former team and he probably won't let it go to waste.

Considering that he's playing like the Chris Bosh of his Raptor days, this game should be a mere stepping stone for a Heat team playing at home.

Miami 115, Toronto 85

February 7th: vs. Cleveland

Previous meeting: Miami 92, Cleveland 85

Hopefully the Heat don't get too homesick. Their next home game after this is six games later on February 19th.

Aside from LeBron James first visit back to Cleveland on December 2nd, where he scored 38 points, the Cleveland Cavaliers have actually held him under wraps and given the Miami Heat a quality game.

It's strange too since a few key components of LeBron's old Cavaliers team has been broken up. Mo Williams is in Los Angeles, J.J. Hickson in Sacramento and Zydrunas Ilgauskas recently retired after spending a year with the Heat. Cleveland still has Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker and Anderson Varejao, but a number of key players have departed.

This is the second time that these teams will play together with their first meeting occurring only a few weeks prior. That game also happened to take place at the American Airlines Arena, and the Heat got the best that the Cavaliers could throw at them.

It was tight throughout as the Heat only held a three-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Playing without Dwyane Wade, it would be Chris Bosh who would step up and lead the charge in the final frame to put this one to bed. His 35 points on 10-of-16 shooting to go along with a perfect 14-of-14 from the foul line helped lead the Heat to a close victory.

LeBron James only had 18 points on 8-of-21 shooting against his former team. The Cavaliers made it a key point of emphasis to bottle him up on the defensive end. While that was effective, they completely forgot to put a tab on Bosh.

With Wade back in the lineup, the Heat shouldn't have too much trouble against Cleveland. There's no doubt that they'll get a game out of it, but the Heat should pull away in the fourth quarter thanks to Wade and Bosh.

Miami 102, Cleveland 93

February 8th: At Orlando

This game would have been fun if the Orlando Magic weren't in a complete tailspin.

The meeting between the Heat and Magic is set up for a little more than a week from now. The sunshine state rivalry has had its memorable moments with Dwyane Wade going off for 50 points two years ago and LeBron James going off for 51 last year. The Heat took three out of four matchups against the Magic last year.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of these meetings is how well the Heat play against Dwight Howard. Even though the team has no center that could possibly deter Howard from doing as he pleases, Miami has always seemed to corral him into poor showings. It comes mostly as a result of the drives of Wade and James forcing Howard into early foul trouble and throwing him out of rhythm.

Miami also throws a lot of double-teams at Howard, forcing turnovers and bad shots. When you have to defend Howard, the key point of emphasis is to frustrate him. Once Dwight Howard gets frustrated, it's all downhill from there as he'll begin to complain to the officiating or rack up even more fouls on account of being flabbergasted by the Heat's constant slashing.

Yes, the Heat will be constantly driving as well. It's going to take more than Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu to contain Wade and James. Orlando is going to have to play actual defense if they want to keep this game within shooting distance.

The Magic have the benefit of being a three-point shooting team, a huge weakness of the Heat's this year, but they lack the consistency and defensive effort that would make this a close enough game for it to become an eventual upset.

Miami 101, Orlando 91

February 10th: At Washington

There's just something about this game that's leaving a bad taste in the back of my mouth.

It's not because the Washington Wizards are awful. It's because they have the talent to not only be a postseason-caliber team, but to beat elite teams as they proved earlier this season in a win over the 16-4 Oklahoma City Thunder.

Any given day a basketball team can win and that includes this Wizards team who has several quality players in John Wall, Nick Young, Andray Blatche and Jordan Crawford. All four of those players are capable of going off for at least 20 points. The problem is that they don't know how to work together as a cohesive unit and allow each other to have games like that.

Thus the reason why the Heat will win this game by 20 points. The Heat are too athletic, fast and agile to allow a team like the Wizards to get out and run. Washington is going to have to either begin establishing some fundamentals, hope the Heat play down to their level or attempt to slow down the tempo of the game to one that limits the Heat on the fastbreak.

Since the Wizards are coughing the ball up 15 times per game and giving up more points than 24 other NBA teams, I wouldn't expect Washington to put up with much of a fight unless their offense can truly begin to work together and establish some consistency to their offense.

Even if they do maintain some sort of level of consistency on that end of the floor, they still refuse to play defense and that's a problem.

Miami 115, Washington 95

February 12th: At Atlanta

Previous meetings

Atlanta 100, Miami 92

Miami 116, Atlanta 109 (3OT)

Leave it to the Miami Heat to completely throw you for a loop. The Heat had a team with all members of its big three in peak condition and ready to play, but lost by eight points thanks in part to an abysmal shooting night by Dwyane Wade, failing to figure out the zone defense and allowing Tracy McGrady to convert on all three of his three-pointers and scoring 16 points off the bench.

Later in the same week, the Heat went to Atlanta and were going to play without LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The Heat had an excuse to lose this game. Playing without their two best players and having them replaced by James Jones and Shane Battier was pretty much a given defeat for a team that was set to roll out with Chris Bosh as its top player.

Three overtimes later, the Heat won. How they won? There's no explanation besides just an amazing all-around effort from each and every player that stepped on the court. Bosh had 33 points, 14 boards and five assists per, while also hitting the shot that sent it into overtime, Mario Chalmers had a season-high 29 points, eight assists and seven boards, and Udonis Haslem had 14 points and 11 boards off the bench.

The 6'4" guard, Terrell Harris, racked up 14 boards. The Heat outscored the Hawks, 7-0, in the final overtime as they managed to overcome a 46-23 free-throw attempt deficit.

That team played with heart and it was arguably one of the best games in Heat franchise history.

This is already the third meeting between the Southeast Division's two top teams, will be the second game in Atlanta and the first contest of the Heat's back-to-back-to-back. The chances are high that the Heat would love to have a victory before heading off to Milwaukee immediately after their win.

The Heat have usually found success against Atlanta and with Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers nailing everything from deep recently, it'll take more than a zone to beat Miami this time around.

Miami 97, Atlanta 92

February 13th: At Milwaukee

Previous meetings

Milwaukee 91, Miami 82

Meeting on February 2nd

The second night of the back-to-back-to-back couldn't have come against a worse opponent. The Miami Heat are only a few hours removed from winning a tight game against the Atlanta Hawks and will be entering frigid conditions in Milwaukee after a long flight that will have them in the city in the early morning.

With no practice, little motivation and having to compete against a team that enjoys playing ugly basketball, this is probably going to be the Heat's first loss in the month of February. It'll be their third game in four nights and the Heat are going to be too worn out physically and mentally to fully compete.

However, the Heat do have a fighting chance since Andrew Bogut will still be out with his fractured knee. If LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are serious about coming away with a victory before flying to Indiana shortly after the game, then there is an extremely high chance that they do come out with the win.

I don't see it happening. The Bucks are going to wear down the Heat with their stingy defense, forcing them to take bad shots from the perimeter. This isn't too significant of a game for the Heat either so we may see them wear down by the fourth quarter.

This one will come down to motivation and how badly the Heat want to win. Unless they're on a significant winning streak that they don't care to relinquish, I have little reason to believe that Miami will even show up for this.

Milwaukee 93, Miami 84

February 14th: At Indiana

Previous meeting: Miami 118, Indiana 83

Similar to the Miami Heat's later meeting with the Philadelphia 76ers, their first matchup with the Indiana Pacers was supposed to be a representation of just how ready the Pacers are to face off against the elite teams of the East.

The Heat were playing without Dwyane Wade. They won by 35 points in the friendly confines of the American Airlines Arena. The Pacers kept it close after the first, but it was all Heat from there as they outscored the visitors, 33-12, in the second quarter. Indiana had one field goal out of 15 attempts and committed 10 turnovers in that quarter.

The Pacers had two more points than they had turnovers in that quarter. It truly showed just how far the Pacers have to go before they could begin to be recognized as a team that can topple an elite squad like the Heat or Chicago Bulls. Their jump shooting ways and 35 percent shooting led to their embarrassing downfall in the loss.

This time, however, they will have the clear advantage going in. Not only do they hold home-court advantage at Conseco Fieldhouse, but will also be welcoming a Heat team that is coming off of its third consecutive game in three nights, as well as its fourth game in five nights.

That doesn't mean it will be easy for Indiana. They still have to take on an elite team with three of the league's top players as well as a roster that is now completely healthy with Mike Miller now at full strength.

For the Heat to win this, they're going to need someone outside of the big three to step up. James, Wade and Bosh will be worn down from the heavy schedule that they have faced and will need a player like Mario Chalmers, Miller or Norris Cole to step up.

This one will go down to the wire and it all depends on how energetic the Heat are for this game after a sleeper against Milwaukee.

Miami 98, Indiana 94

February 17th: At Cleveland

Previous meetings

Miami 92, Cleveland 85

Meeting on February 7th

I'm guessing that the hype of LeBron James going back to Cleveland is dead.

ESPN would usually feast over a Friday night spectacle like this, but it will be on local television only. This will be the third time in James' tenure with the Heat that he has been to Cleveland. He has a 1-1 record there as the Heat won the first meeting and the Cavaliers won the final.

That Cavaliers win was the one positive takeaway for the fans of that decrepit franchise. In a year where they went 19-63 and lost an NBA record 26 consecutive games, I can guarantee that beating LeBron James and the Heat overshadowed all of it. Sad I know, but that franchise needed something in that year they'd like to forget.

The Heat's travel to Cleveland on the 17th of February will be the first time they head to the unfriendly confines of the Quicken Loans Arena. Even though the national media isn't salivating for a game like this anymore, there's no doubt that the fans are still foaming at the mouth for a chance to jeer their former basketball idol.

LeBron hasn't had much success against Cleveland besides that 38-point outburst he had in his initial return, so it's a good thing that Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh will be there to pick up the pieces in case James fails to show up again.

Cleveland is an athletic team that can get out and run. The Heat need to be careful when they take them on for the third time this year, especially with that audible fanbase breathing down their necks from start to finish.

Still, the Heat are a lot better in every way. It won't be a blowout, but they'll get the job done.

Miami 103, Cleveland 91

February 19th: vs. Orlando

Previous meetings: Meeting on February 8th.

This matchup at the American Airlines Arena between the Heat and Orlando Magic certainly is a tough game to gauge.

Not because of who will win, the Heat will, but by how much depending on if the Magic successfully traded Dwight Howard out of Orlando. The All-Star center has grown disgruntled with the coaching staff, front office and teammates over the past few months and could on the way out if he continues to gripe enough about his standing with the club.

Howard is just another superstar who has jumped ship off of their original franchises to hopefully play for a championship contender. In the past two years, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul have all left the teams that drafted them for a better shot at winning an NBA title.

Seeing all of these star players move in such a short amount of time certainly is an interesting trend. It was rare to see elite players leave their teams and we've already seen five players do so in the past two years alone. Dwight Howard would make it six if he does end up departing from the Magic.

This game? Irrelevant. With or without Howard, the Heat are the better team and will be more than excited to finally be back home after an 11-day road trip where they faced six teams. It'll only be there second game since the 15th as well, which means that they should be plenty rested for this national spectacle.

Miami 105, Orlando 87

February 21st: vs. Sacramento

As compressed as the schedule is for the Heat in February, they don't face off with too many quality teams.

They handled their business in the previous weeks with games against Dallas, Boston, Indiana, Atlanta twice, and Chicago. The toughest tests of this upcoming month will be Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia and Orlando on two occasions. The only thing keeping the Heat from possibly going undefeated is the fact that they have a stretch where they play four games in five nights.

Not even a team as athletic as the Heat can pull off a full 100 percent effort in those three contests.

Luckily for the Heat, the road towards the end of the month gets extremely easy with one more game on the road against Cleveland and then home games against the Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.

The first meeting between the Heat and Kings will take place late into February as the Heat get rested off of an arduous week prior and get ready for the upcoming All-Star break.

Miami won both meetings in considerable fashion against the Kings last season. It's probably as a result of the Heat being good and the Kings being on the opposite end of the spectrum. That team is in disarray with DeMarcus Cousins attempting a one-man overhaul on the 6-14 team that currently resides at the bottom of the Pacific Division.

It's a disappointment too. The Kings got Tyreke Evans back healthy, sharpshooter Jimmer Fredette out of the draft and Marcus Thornton for a full season. All three players, especially Evans and Thornton, have the potential to make this Kings team into something special, but simply don't have the talent or discipline to make any sort of impact.

That impact won't come against the Heat. This will rival the game against the Raptors as the easiest cakewalk of the month for Miami.

Miami 120, Sacramento 92

February 23rd: vs. New York

Previous meeting: Miami 99, New York 88

It's a good thing that this game will be put on national television. You won't want to miss another top 10's worth of highlight's from the Miami Heat in their second meeting of the season against the New York Knicks.

Carmelo Anthony will most likely be back this time around barring another significant injury, so we'll at least be able to experience the always harrowing matchup of Anthony taking on LeBron James. The two superstars have had some furious battles in the past with 'Melo usually coming out as the one on top thanks to his ability to consistently hit from anywhere on the court as well as performing well in late-game situations.

However, that was Anthony with the Nuggets and the Knicks from last year. This year's Knicks aren't that good. They still don't have a capable fourth option, bench, defensive mindset or purpose to win games at a level that's akin to the Eastern Conference's elite.

It turns out that one solid defensive presence in the middle won't get it done. This is a team effort and you need the entire roster to buy into the idea of playing stronger defense. The Dallas Mavericks did that last year and got a title out of it. The New York Knicks have yet to buy in it and it probably explains why they wouldn't be in the playoffs if they started today.

Even though the Knicks will get 'Melo back, they also won't have the gift of Bill Walker nailing seven three-pointers and the team hitting 18 three-pointers overall. Adding Carmelo to the mix may just make this game even worse because of just how awkward this team looks when he's the one attempting to play the role of facilitator.

What's that? Baron Davis will be back? That's nice and all, but you should provide me with a reason as to why the Knicks will win.

Miami 104, New York 90