2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: 1st Round Plus a Few Who Could Crack the Top 32
My 2011 NFL Mock Draft has been updated from my initial February Mock Draft. I will highlight my initial picks and notate changes but there are fewer than I thought there would be.
There are a multitude of problems with doing a mock draft. Aside from attempting to really understand team needs on top of scouting players with limited resources, the whole issue of draft day maneuvering comes up.
So why are mock drafts becoming so popular?
That part is easy. Free agency and the NFL Draft symbolize the start of the following football season and give fans an opportunity to really start thinking about next year. With the current CBA concerns, the 2011 draft could be the first opportunity for fans to imagine how new players will elevate their teams' performance in 2011.
I do look forward to your comments, particularly on your favorite team. I don't want to be "that guy"...you know—the one that makes the equivalent blunder of Pete Carroll selecting a 5'9" CB in round one.
Right now Carolina is on the clock and no team has as much work to do as the Panthers. Let the dreaming begin!
1. Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama 6'3", 319 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn 6'4" 291 Lbs
Cam Newton may very well end up being the pick here but I don't believe it will be the Panthers selecting him. Yes, there is a lot of chatter about the Panthers needing a QB and liking Newton but that could likely be the Panthers laying bait for a trade partner.
I can’t see the Panthers taking on another project at the QB position right now. Clausen certainly fell short of being impressive his rookie season but he wasn't that terrible considering he didn't exactly have much talent to work with.
Look for Carolina’s new coaching regime to work on some improvement on the defense and wait for 2012 to consider the QB position. With the plethora of needs, I don’t see Carolina crawling out of a top draft position next year, leaving them in position to take Luck or Barkley.
2. Denver Broncos: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn 6'4" 291 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
With John Fox taking over the reins of the Broncos, one wonders how much time he has to turn this franchise’s fortunes around. Patrick Peterson could provide an immediate impact in the secondary and work into Bailey's eventual replacement but Denver also has a lot of work to do on the defensive line. Adding Fairley will improve their pass rush and help our the DBs.
As for Fairley...I'm not certain what needs to be said of him. He came into his own this season and the National Championship Game was the crown on his season. He holds an incredible initial burst of speed and power that will disrupt opposing offenses.
The concern is that this year could be an anomaly and he's been slipping on draft boards. He wasn't overly impressive in 2009—could he have a drop off next year similar to what Adrian Clayborn did this season? He also has some character concerns that I'm sure Carolina, Denver and Buffalo addressed with him at the combine.
The wild card with Denver is a new front office. There have been comments that Elway and Fox don't have the same faith in Tebow as McDaniels did. If they don’t see him as the future for the orange, this is their chance to grab a potential elite QB without having to trade up to do it.
3. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU 6'0" 219 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Buffalo will have several options with this pick, as they have needs at WR, DE, LB, and possibly QB. It is tempting to put Newton here, as the Bills have hinted they will look at the QB position. However, I’m not convinced that they are done with Fitzpatrick yet. As bad as his supporting cast was, he ran the offense very well last season.
Could it be that Buddy Nix is using his reputation as a bit of an open book to entice someone into trading into position to get Newton? Cincinnati, Arizona and San Francisco are all potential trade partners. One of them might be willing to give up some draft capital to get their QB...if they feel Newton or Gabbert will be the next big thing.
As for Peterson—he’s simply the most talented player in the draft and an athletic freak. He will help shore up at least a big chunk of their pass defense and do more to improve this team (at least in the short term) than a move from Fitzpatrick to a rookie QB.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn 6'5", 248 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
I know I will come under scrutiny for having Newton fall all the way to pick four. After all, despite his overall rating of about 15, he is the QB in this draft with the fewest concerns of being a bust and having the skills to be a good NFL QB.
Not exactly a raving review but it does underscore the QBs this year. All of them have uncertainty and if not for the overwhelming need at the position, we wouldn't be spending much time talking about most of them.
Carson Palmer could be on the decline following a shoulder injury and very well may be on his way out. He has stated he will retire before playing another down as a Bengal.
As much as the Bengals have concerns with receiving options, pairing A.J. Green with Chad Whatchamacallit won’t matter if they don’t have someone to get them the ball. Newton is a proven leader and most of his off-field distractions won’t matter once he takes the field as a professional athlete and "icon."
There are other questions regarding his readiness for the NFL but the Bengals have shown a penchant for taking a gamble in the first round on players with a high potential reward.
Newton neither provided a wow factor nor created new concerns at the combine. About the same can be said for his Pro Day. Granted, his throwing accuracy and precision left a bit to be desired, but scouts, coaches and GMs understand he is working on his conversion to working from under center. His performance at his recent media day provided enough energy to have concerns from his combine workouts eased.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M 6'3", 246 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Von Miller, DE/OLB Texas A&M
This was actually about the easiest selection for me to make, despite the Cardinals being in the hunt for a QB.
I’m not sold that Max Hall or John Skelton are their future but Skelton has potential. Whisenhunt could be looking for a QB in free agency, via trade, or in the second round of the draft. But I don't expect them to take Blaine Gabbert as his style is not a fit with Arizona's offense.
If Arizona counts on an older free agent and their two young QBs to carry the passing load in 2011 and end up failing, there are worse fates. That outcome will set them up to grab Luck or Barkley in 2012, which could still be enough incentive for Fitzgerald to re-sign with the club.
In the interest of discussing this pick: Von Miller has been gaining recognition since his performance at the Senior Bowl and should step in and give Arizona a needed lift in their pass rush. He's fast and athletic but might need a bit more bulk for the NFL. He can get absorbed by bigger offensive linemen at times.
Miller has a tendency to take a wide outside swing when trying to get to the QB. This led to a lot of delayed runs by opposing QBs, taking advantage of the hole that he left in the defense. I don't see this being as much of an issue in the NFL but he will need to fine-tune and expand his rush skills. One trick ponies don't fare so well against NFL tackles.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia 6'4", 211 Lbs
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Prior Pick: A.J. Green, WR Georgia
The top of the draft couldn't work out much better for the Browns. They have needs elsewhere on offense, such as the entire line but they will be able to work on that in round two. They might be interested in getting another top CB to play opposite Joe Haden but with Peterson off the board Green is too tempting to pass up.
The Browns showed some signs of life last season. They dealt to get into position to draft Colt McCoy and that move looks like it will pay dividends for years to come…particularly when he has some weapons around him. I was outspoken that the Seahawks should have held off on trading for Charlie Whitehurst and drafted McCoy instead. I took some heat from fans that think he is too small or has too weak an arm to succeed in the NFL.
McCoy may not have the strongest arm, and Green will certainly challenge him with his speed. But look for these two young players to develop a strong rapport over the coming seasons, as Mike Holmgren looks to direct another comeback of a franchise. Yes, Cleveland has two young WRs with potential but neither brings the skill set that Green does.
Despite other WRs putting up faster track times at the combine, speed in full pads and when focusing on catching the ball is different. Green has game day speed. He also has amazing body control and awareness of where he is on the football field. He simply gets open and makes amazing moves with the football and would be a major boost to this young offense.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri 6'4", 234 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
I'm still not sure if this is what I think San Francisco will do, should do, or what I want them to do. I've been quite outspoken over the last month that I don't see Gabbert being worthy of the hype he is getting.
He put up decent numbers as a sophomore, and then saw those figures decline (somewhat significantly) his junior year. How does a spread QB only get 16 TDs on the season? This after Chase Daniels hit for 39 two years prior?
San Francisco has many areas of need, despite the guarantees of their President (Jed "we're still making the playoffs" York), claims of the players and beliefs of a large percentage of their fan base.
The 49ers don’t have a starting QB, lack a pass rush and are weak in the defensive backfield. They could also use some help at WR and despite using two first round picks on the OL in 2010, this unit also has holes. Still...if they have a successful QB to work with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, they may again be the pre-season favorites to win the NFC West in 2011.
The advantage with a rookie head coach is he will have some latitude in the upcoming season as the team is retooled. Jim Harbaugh knows how important a QB is to winning in the NFL and I see him pushing the 49ers to task. He recruited Gabbert coming out of high school and recognizes the raw talent (obviously Harbaugh's thoughts on him as a college recruit are different than what he thinks he can do as a pro but groundwork has been set).
Anyone that believes Harbaugh doesn't feel he is up to the challenge of transforming Gabbert into an NFL QB doesn't know much about Harbaugh.
I see Gabbert as a project QB whose main positive is a high completion percentage, in large part due to hitting mostly short passes. He should be targeted in the second round but hype and need have moved him up the draft board.
49er fans should be prepared for another spread QB that just can't quite make the transition in the NFL. Trent Baalke would be better off re-signing Alex Smith and drafting Prince Amukamara here.
8. Tennessee Titans: Cameron Jordan, DE, California 6'4", 287 Lbs
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Original Pick: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Mr. Rock, meet Mr. Hard Space. Oh…sorry. It appears a Titan is stuck between you.
I’d normally expect a team drafting this high to have a lot of needs but I don’t think that is the case in Nashville. Their large hole at QB is the most glaring among them, followed not too closely by needs at OG and along the defensive front seven.
It is too early to take a guard and the guys they were hoping to grab on the defensive line are gone. It may be too early to take Cameron Jordan or J.J. Watt. Robert Quinn would be the pick here but I don't think he is a great fit for them, which could lead to a trade if the first seven go as scripted. Like that is going to happen...
Their decision here will be to gamble on Jake Locker in the top 10, or gamble that he or another top QB prospect will fade into the second round. Locker looked solid enough at the combine and almost flawless at his pro day, so that will make their decision a little more difficult.
I actually think Locker would be the best option, but it might be hard for them to take the third QB in the draft with pick eight. Kaepernick, Ponder or Mallett could be waiting for them in the second round but do they really want to gamble with the most important position on the field? Picking a QB here would allow them to get some help on the interior of the offensive line in round two, as there will be several good guards available.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC 6'5", 307 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Tyron Smith, OT USC
Yes, I had Smith as the top OT was back in February. I took a lot of heat for this projection at the time.
For a team that many expected to make a Super Bowl run in 2010, a top 10 pick is a definite surprise. Well, to most of us. Last August I took a lot of heat for another prediction...the Cowboys would be no better than third in their division and well out of the playoffs. My reasoning seemed solid, including the Cowboys having the third-best OL in Texas.
Tyron Smith is the best OT in this draft and is worthy of a top 10 pick. He lacks the mental side of the game coaches would like to see but he does have the capacity to be taught. What can’t be learned is athleticism, which is where Smith excels.
He reported to the combine at 307 pounds and is holding the weight well. He also boasts a reach of 36.5” and might be able to play either tackle position. He had an impressive bench workout but a lingering knee issue kept him on the sidelines for agility and speed drills. That was unfortunate, as coaches and GMs would like to see how he moves with his expanded frame.
Amukamara may be too much to pass up here. DB is definitely a need for the Boys; they allowed a mile of passing through the air over a five game stretch this season and without some serious help that will continue in 2011. While they will be able to grab a good CB or S in round two, a quality starting tackle will be a bigger reach 40 picks in.
10. Washington Redskins: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska 6'0", 206 Lbs
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It would be easier to mention what the Redskins don’t need to work on this offseason. They are set at SS and good at TE and K. Their OLB options are questionable…some claim they are solid and others are concerned that a rush LB is needed to play opposite Orakpo.
They definitely need some help with their pass rush, which will give Robert Quinn some consideration here. However, Amukamara will likely edge him out. I would be tempted with Quinn, as the Redskin DBs are having to work too hard because of their complete lack of a pass rush. But that is a short-term answer.
In a few seasons, when the Redskins can get rebuilt and challenge again, they’ll be glad they took Amukamara. He may not get an island named after him, but will definitely be seen as DB royalty.
11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina 6'4", 265 Lbs
11 of 33Prior Pick: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB
Robert Quinn would most likely be a top five pick if he’d not been sitting out the 2010 season because the NCAA (Non-Crimes Are Actionable) decided to wrap him up into one of their witch hunts. The combine was important for Quinn to show he is still in solid shape and he showed the needed quickness.
Many draft boards have moved him back into the top 10 and I tried to. I just couldn't come up with a place to put him. The Texans will take the fortune.
Expect Quinn to fill a strong need for the Texans, providing a strong pass rush from the OLB position and some run support. His size will keep him from anchoring a DE position for them, though. This can be viewed in the video above. He had a solid pass rush but got pushed around by Castonzo when he was run blocking.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker, QB, Washington 6'3", 231 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Julio Jones, WR Alabama
This is a tough decision. The Vikings still have a lot of talent on their roster but much of it is aging. They need to make a decision on if they are going to re-tool and attempt to make a playoff run, or spend a year or two rebuilding and adding some youth in key positions.
I am banking they will lean towards the latter with the draft but bring in a few veterans to fill the gaps. They will be sure to re-sign Sidney Rice to give Locker a sure-handed target.
Coach Frazier stated that they are looking to find the next rookie phenom to play under center. Locker may struggle without a mentor, so look for the Vikings to look west again and bring in Matt Hasselbeck to start for a year or two and mentor the youngster.
Locker has taken a lot of heat for his performance in 2010 but he was on a team that just wasn't that good. His line had issues pass blocking and his receivers couldn't hold onto his passes. Both of those would change with the Vikings and Locker would flourish.
13. Detroit Lions: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin 6'7", 314 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Cabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
The Lions have watched their young QB go down with injury two seasons in a row. If they want to avoid going for the hat trick, they need to upgrade their talent at OT. I struggle on the value of the available OTs here but I believe Gabe Carimi will be a solid tackle in the NFL and would make sense for the Lions.
I had Jimmy Smith penciled in here, as the Lions are as bad off at CB as they are at LT. However, there won’t be an NFL-ready LT available in round two and there will likely be a top five CB available then.
If the Lions want to help Stafford shed the glass doll moniker, they need to draft a solid pass blocker.
There is a lot of talk about Nate Solder but I don’t get it. He was embarrassed often this year by quick DEs. With the number of them he’ll find in the NFL, I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on a project player.
Carimi was responsive and a force in the ground game and was solid in pass protection. He was also a big winner at the combine; he displayed the expected power in the bench press and was quick and relatively nimble in the agility drills. He helped himself more than any other potential first round talent.
14. St. Louis Rams: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri 6'4", 263 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri
Big surprise…everyone has the Rams taking Julio Jones here. Bigger surprise…I don’t. Sam Bradford looked solid in 2010 throwing to a glorified practice squad. Imagine what he could do with a few NFL-worthy receivers, right?!
Josh McDaniels has shown the ability to get a lot out of his receivers. The Rams will get Donnie Avery back from injury and work to keep Mark Clayton or grab a WR in free agency. This will allow them to use their first draft pick to revive a weak pass rush and Smith will be too enticing to pass up. He is big enough and certainly strong enough to play DE in a 4-3 set but he moves like an OLB.
Receiver isn’t as big a need as a pass rush for the Rams. Even with Jones still available, expect Smith to get tagged here. There are some fast, talented receivers in this draft and St. Louis can snag one in the following round.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mikel LeShoure, RB Illinois 6'0", 226 Lbs.
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Prior Pick: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
This was a consensus pick for Mark Ingram. However, it is hard to draft a RB with injury concerns in the first round. They take too much of a pounding as it is.
The Dolphins have relied on a strong ground game but will likely be losing their talent at the position this offseason. They also could use some help on the offensive line and could be looking at the QB position. I would have had them grab Jake Locker, as I don’t see Chad Henne or Tyler Thigpen as their future but he is off my board here.
While I do think Miami grabs LeShoure, I don't think it will be this high. Look for them to move down the draft board to get him, as some team will want to trade into this spot to get Julio Jones (Jets?).
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue 6'4", 267 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
I originally had Ryan Kerrigan as the pick for Jacksonville and then moved Jordan into the slot. With Jordan off the board, Kerrigan looks to be a great fit for the Jaguars.
I hate to throw out comments like “this guy just has a great motor” but it fits for Kerrigan. He is extremely quick off the edge, uses his hands well to shed blockers and manages to find and disrupt QBs. While not having elite speed, he should still be quick enough to help in zone coverage.
17. New England Patriots: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College 6'7", 311 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Jake Locker, QB Washington
The Patriots have about 18 percent of the picks in the first three rounds (OK...it is only six), giving them leverage and affording them a luxury pick. I thought Locker made sense back in February, and their recent two day visit with him only enforces the idea they are considering their transition plan from Brady.
Alas, the Vikings look to spoil their plans, which is good news for the rest of the league. Imagine how good Locker could become if he spent three years studying under Brady...
The Patriots need youth at OT, some upgrades on defense where they may have too much youth and will likely look at getting a RB under age 30. They may also need to prepare for Mankins to hold out.
Ingram may be tempting here but they will likely be able to get him at the end of round one or start of round two. Castonzo is an interesting prospect, even if his best claim to success is that Boston College produces good linemen.
Many experts consider Castaonzo to be the top LT prospect in the draft. He’s my third pick, following Smith and Carimi but is likely the guy I would take if I only needed a LT.
His combine performances were as expected, showing good mobility and adequate stamina in the bench press. He started every game in four years at BC, but he’ll need to work on stopping power rushers in the NFL. His quickness and positioning skills will compensate for deficiencies in the strength department.
18. San Diego Chargers: J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin 6'5", 290 Lbs
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Prior Pick: J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
The list of needs for the Chargers is very simple. They need to win some games in September for a change. The front seven of their defense is what needs the most attention to get them over that hump, so look for them to take the best DL or OLB available.
Akeem Ayers is a possibility but the versatility of Watt will be too much to pass up. Some are mocking Watt as high as the ninth pick, while others see him in the mid- to late-20s. I fall in between and see him bringing some intensity to the Charger defense.
He has a solid mix of speed and strength, takes smart lines to the QB and keeps pressing. His stat lines claims seven sacks for the season but I feel that number is a bit shy. He was credited with two sacks vs. Ohio State but the video above shows him getting to Pryor at least four times.
19. New York Giants: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois 6'2", 298 Lbs
19 of 33Prior Pick: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
I will admit that I am caving to peer pressure by putting Liuget in the top 20. There are a few guys in this draft that I don’t see as being quite as good as their hype. Liuget is one of them. Perhaps I just need the luxury of a little more video for him.
The Giants do need an interior pass rusher; Rocky Bernard hasn’t given them the presence they hoped for and Barry Cofield could be lost to FA. Liuget should at least help with getting some pressure on opposing QBs.
He is a big, strong guy and can work his way through the line. However, in the three games I was able to watch, I became accustomed to seeing rushers run through his gaps. In his zeal to get past his blocker, he seems to lose sight of his gaps and allows running backs to break through.
I'd feel better placing him late in the first round but true nose tackles are a little thin this draft. He has great physical tools and should be able to make a positive impact in New York.
The Giants also need help at offensive tackle but the three true first round players that can consider starting in '11 are off the board. Ijalana is possible here if the Giants really do feel desperate.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson 6'3" 280 Lbs.
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Prior Pick: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Clayborn is another tough call for me. Most lists have him in the top 15, and his 40 time was adequate but well behind some of the first round talent.
Clayborn was a beast during the 2009 season and he was huge in their Orange Bowl game. However, he seemed to lack the same intensity at times during the 2010 campaign. He showed flashes of speed on one play, getting to the QB and causing havoc in the passing game. On the next he could be seen getting pushed around in run defense.
With concerns over Bowers' knee dropping him out of the top five, the Buccaneers will be looking at two players with concerns. The ceiling is much higher with Bowers and given that the negative reports are coming from people looking at records and not the doctors that have been following Bowers' care, Da'Quan is the better gamble.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama 6'3", 220 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
At one point I had Julio Jones falling to the Chiefs. Then he was off to the Vikings, turning the Chief's attention to their big need...offensive line.
Now, Jones is still on the board. His presence would have balanced out their receiving options and help Bowe out.
I don't really expect Jones to last this long. Someone, such as the Jets, will look to trade up to grab him if he is available in the teens.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State 6'1", 303 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
With mounting pressure from his blind side, Peyton Manning actually looked human at times this year. Most fans expected the Colts to grab a LT last draft, especially after GM Bill Polian criticized the unit after their Super Bowl loss.
He readily admits not grabbing Saffold was a big mistake...one I'm sure he doesn't plan to repeat. The problem is, despite Nate Solder being on the board, I believe all the first round talent—and anyone that can help out the Colts next year— is gone at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move up a few spots to make sure they get the LT they desperately need.
I’ve been unsure about Paea going in the first round. Part of that could be that I’d love to see the Seahawks grab him in round two, as he is a guy that promises to be tough against the rush and able to apply pressure to the QB.
His combine performance makes him tough to ignore. If you somehow missed it, he added an additional four reps to the prior combine bench press record of 45.
Not to take anything away from him but his shorter arms do make him more of a bench pressing machine than an OT with a 36” reach.
Paea has the ability to blow through gaps and stuff the run. Even when double teamed he can hold his ground. At times he seems undisciplined in the pass rush and will need to hone those skills in the NFL to reach his potential. His reported work ethic should translate into success.
His ability to step in and start in the NFL as a rookie validates his first round selection and he could very well make a bigger impact than Liuget in the right system. I would be hesitant to draft him into a 3-4 scheme but Indianapolis should be a good fit.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA 6'3", 254 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
If available, I don’t anticipate it will take Philly long to get their draft card turned in for Ayers. OLB is a distinct area of need and Ayers will provide needed versatility to give the Eagles a little more push on the QB, solid run defense and solid pass protection. CB is also an area of need but Ayers provides too much value at this spot to be ignored.
Just what the NFC East needs…one of their teams getting another impact player.
24. New Orleans Saints: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor 6'3", 334 Lbs.
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Prior Pick: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
Nevis is a difficult player to peg. At the start of the season he wasn’t garnering any attention above the fourth round. However, he finally began seeing some playing time in his senior season and rode those opportunities to becoming a Second-Team All-American.
The Saints need some help up front and with the 24th pick I think Nevis is worth the gamble. They likely won't, though, with Taylor still on the board. He is a big, solid nose tackle that will help shore up the Saints defense that was exposed at times last season (anyone that saw the "Beast Quake" TD run in their playoff game knows they need some help).
The Saints could use safety help but that position is soft this draft. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them look at the RB position here or in round two and if not for the injury issues their RBs have had they may even take a crack at Ingram.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado 6'2", 211 Lbs
25 of 33Prior Pick: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
In early February I mentioned Jimmy Smith being an ideal candidate for Seattle with the 25th pick…if he’d last that long. On one side I had people telling me he wouldn’t be a first round draft pick and on the other end I was being told how Seattle needed OL.
I expect Seattle to grab a guard in round two and I believe most of the OTs in this draft are not worth a first round pick. Seattle is better off waiting until 2012 to determine their need at RT, allowing Stacy Andrews to take over that position in 2011.
Another first round option is for the Seahawks to grab a a QB. However, with the top three passing options off the board, first round talent at the position would be spent. I don't buy Ponder or Dalton being worth a first round pick and I have a feeling Carroll has his eye on a QB that will most likely be entering the NFL in '12.
They also need to look at DL…Drake Nevis could be an option but he will likely be available a bit later. Seattle could look to make a move or two to get a third round pick and draft him or Jurrell Casey.
As for this pick—Smith is exactly the kind of CB that Carroll likes. He is tall (Carroll won’t take a CB much under 6’0”), can be physical and imposing at the line and is quick enough to be disruptive in the secondary.
He seems to take bad lines in run support and has a habit of stopping on plays before they are actually done. Expect that to be driven out of him early in Pete Carroll’s camp.
At one point I had the Lions taking Smith and ignoring their overwhelming need to draft an OT. I may be giving the Lions too much credit, or maybe it is just wishful thinking but as of right now I see Smith wearing Seahawk Blue next August.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia 6'2", 199 Lbs
26 of 33Prior Pick: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
For all this franchise has done right over recent seasons, the CB position isn’t one of them. Injuries left the team thin and forced them to make a move right before the start of the season to shore up the position. I'm sure they are salivating over a player like Jimmy smith.
They acquired Josh Wilson from Seattle. He performed well but is a free agent and may not return. The sent a conditional fifth round pick to the Seahawks for him.
It would have been a fourth round selection had Wilson made 10 starts; he was a starter in the final nine games. In the game prior to this stretch, he played sparingly in the first half and all of the second. Playing a few more downs in the first half of that game would have triggered a fourth round pick.
Could they have games his playing time to keep him from triggering the condition in the trade? It would only be fitting if Seattle managed to snag the CB the Ravens wanted.
I've struggled with Harris and Williams here but both have downsides that make me overlook them. Harris reminds me too much of Kelly "can't make a play on the ball" Jennings and Williams seems to lack the speed and discipline to be an elite CB.
Following Dowling's personal pro day, I can't figure out why he is so far down the list of CBs in this year's draft. When analysts talk about a second round "steal," Dowling's name keeps coming up. I figure it is about time to give a solid cover guy that runs the 40 in 4.36 some first round consideration.
Dowling is an amazing athlete that changes direction very well. He has the elite size needed to compete at the line and quickness to stick to receivers downfield. He sheds blocks well and is a powerful tackler, even if his form is a little off at times.
Titus Young is another possible selection as the Ravens’ pass catchers are aging.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland 6'1", 204 Lbs
27 of 33Prior Pick: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
As good as Roddy White was for the Falcons, he was one of Matt Ryan’s few viable options in the passing game. That lack of dimension spells trouble come playoff time and expect this issue to be resolved in short order.
I also considered Titus Young in this spot but I believe Smith will be a better option here. He put up an impressive 4.43 in the 40 yard dash at the combine and is a better option to take over in the slot. Smith has much better size than Young (3" and 30 lbs.) and also has a better vertical leap.
He has shown the ability to get separation and win jump balls and has great acceleration off the line. This gives him the nod over Young or options at DE but he will need to improve route running skills.
28. New England Patriots: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama 5'9", 215 Lbs.
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Prior Pick: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
I'm tempted to mock Benjamin Ijalana here but the Patriots need to get a little younger at RB.
There has been some talk of Ingram falling down the draft board because of a slower than expected 40 time at the combine. I'm not so sure the pro scouts were expecting him to be faster than 4.6.
His talent is his strength and his burst of speed. He was still the fastest RB in the first 10 yards and last I checked that initial burst and shiftiness were a lot more important than running 40 yards in gym shorts.
Now the concerns with Ingram come in the form of a bad knee, which is problematic. However, if any team has the luxury of gambling on him being healthy, it is the Patriots. The knee could shorten his career but the Patriots should get some very good production out of him while he is playing.
29. Chicago Bears: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida 6'5", 303 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida
The Bears need some help on the offensive line—desperately. Pouncey isn’t as good as his twin brother and doesn't justify a top 25 selection. Given the similar talent that will be available in round two, I wouldn't expend a pick on Pouncey in the first round.
I do have some concerns with how Pouncey will transition to the NFL. He was simply ran over at times by bigger, stronger nose tackles. He’ll find even more of them in the NFL and this weakness could become a big issue.
Don’t expect him to be a road-grader in the ground game, either. He doesn't have a track record of pushing guys off the line and clearing holes. A good showing in the bench press at the combine would have helped his draft clout but he did not participate.
Pouncey has upside but he could be another Chris Spencer...an OK center/guard but taken ahead of a much better prospect (Mankins) for the wrong reason.
30. New York Jets: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia 6'03", 270 Lbs
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Prior Pick: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
Given the free agent status of the Jets' starting WRs, a solid pass catcher is their most glaring need. They were aggressive in getting Sanchez two drafts ago and I can see them doing the same this year to get him another weapon.
With Julio Jones hanging out as late as he is on this mock, I'd look at the Jets to make another bold move and trade up to get him.
If Jones is off the board too early, the Jets may decide to grab Titus Young. However, they also need a marquee sack machine. Houston put up double-digit sacks as a Junior and would add some credibility to the Jets’ pass rush.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Benjamin Ijalana, OT/G, Villanova 6’4”, 317 Lbs
31 of 33Prior Pick: Benjamin Ijalana, OT/G, Villanova
Chicago taking Pouncey could be a blessing for Pittsburgh. Even though most have Pouncey listed as the best interior lineman in the draft, I’m not convinced.
Ijalana may have been playing against inferior talent at Villanova but you can’t discount the way he took care of business. He showed good footwork (despite an occasional stutter-step), agility and strength at the LT position. He may be able to play tackle in the NFL but he definitely has the frame and skill set to play guard.
In pass-blocking he simply never let his man get close to the QB, and in one clip I watched he took on two rushers...and shut them both down. He may be a bit of a risk in the first round but he is worth it given the need for the Steelers.
32. Green Bay Packers: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple 6'4", 315 Lbs
32 of 33Prior Pick: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple
I’m struggling in my attempt to peg a defensive lineman into this spot. Cameron Heyward seemed like an obvious choice but he lacks the consistency a Super Bowl team demands from its players. Adrian Clayborn is another option but has the same issue.
Wilkerson is a solid, versatile player that can help plug holes and pressure opposing QBs. He has the size and acceptable speed to slide into a DE in the Packers’ 3-4 set. I'm not sure if he'll ever turn into a pro bowl caliber player but his explosiveness, speed and power will improve the Packers' defense.
Nate Solder and Other Talent Some Have Slated for the 1st Round
33 of 33Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Last season Anthony Davis shot up many draft boards after the combine but I just didn’t see him being ready for the NFL. I actually think he is better suited as a guard and expect him to continue to struggle at RT. His equivalent in 2011 looks like Solder. He had an over-hyped Senior Bowl week performance, where some analysts were impressed by his athletic ability and his potential.
My problem is he looked very plain…even suspect for much of the season, despite the awards and accolades. Cal made him look like he should have never stopped playing TE. I watched his snaps in the Senior Bowl several times and I still don’t agree with him being rated as the #1 OT.
Solder showed as expected at the combine, looking more like a TE than an OT. He had solid performances in the running and jumping drills but was lacking in the strength department (21 reps on the bench press when his competition was in the upper 20’s).
Despite the speed and agility, Solder struggled against quick DEs this season. It won’t get better in the NFL, as those fast DEs are also strong…really, really strong. I'll happily apologize should he prove me wrong but as of yet I haven't had to eat my words on Davis. Teams needing immediate help at OT shouldn't expect it from Solder; he is a project that will need time to develop.
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Clayborn is another tough call for me. Most lists have him in the top 15 but I'm not sold. He performed adequate at the combine but well behind some of the first round talent.
Clayborn was a beast during the 2009 season and he was huge in their Orange Bowl game. However, he seemed to lack the same intensity at times during the 2010 campaign. He showed flashes of speed on one play, getting to the QB and causing havoc in the passing game. On the next he could be seen getting pushed around in run defense.
Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
Heyward is a versatile D lineman that I just can’t quite figure out. Partly because I don’t have enough video on him and partly because he can’t seem to figure out what kind of player he is. At times he seems to enforce his will on his opponents, only to be MIA for large stretches of a game. He was projected as a top 15 talent at the start of the season, only to see his value fall after a few poor games.
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
There are a few teams that are desperate enough for help on the O Line that they might gamble on Sherrod in the first round. He does have a decent blend of height and mobility and at 321 pounds he has the size to play OT in the NFL. He should be able to use his physical tools in the passing game but don’t expect a strong push in the rushing attack. I expect Sherrod to be an early to mid second round pick.
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
Aside from his height deficiency, he has the ability to be a solid starter in the NFL. He should excel in man to man coverage, as he changes directions well and has solid speed. However, he will be over-matched by bigger WRs in the NFL and could have a difficult time making plays on the ball. He also had a habit of knocking down passes in college when he had a clear opportunity to go for an interception.
Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Williams could be an option in round one but will likely be taken early in round two. He is the reason a team like San Francisco could take a QB in round one and still plan on getting a strong CB prospect on day two. However, he lacks the speed that would likely be needed in the NFL and may pencil out better as a safety.
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