2011 NFL Mock Draft—1st Round Plus a Few Who Could Crack the Top 32
Mock Drafts are becoming the new NCAA Tournament Bracket...it seems as though everybody has one and they think theirs is the best. People can't wait to share it with everyone and be told how great their Mock Draft really is.
There are a multitude of problems with doing a mock draft. Aside from attempting to really understand team needs on top of scouting players with limited resources, the whole issue of draft day maneuvering comes up. So why are mock drafts becoming so popular?
That part is easy. The draft is the start of the following football season, and an opportunity for fans to really start thinking about next year. With the current CBA concerns, the draft could be the first opportunity for fans to imagine how new players will elevate their teams' performance in 2011.
I do look forward to your comments, particularly on your favorite team. I don't want to be "that guy"...you know—the one that makes the equivalent blunder of Pete Carroll selecting a 5'10" CB in round one.
Right now Carolina is on the clock, and no team has as much work to do as the Panthers. Let the dreaming begin!
1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn 6'4" 291 Lbs
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I’m not going to say that Fairley is the best player in the draft, but he is the one that fits a huge need for the Panthers. Well, most of the top 10 talent would fit a huge need for Carolina...if not all of the first round picks.
While Cam Newton is making a push to be considered the #1 draft pick, I can’t see the Panthers taking on another project at the QB position right now. Clausen certainly fell short of being impressive his rookie season, but he didn’t exactly have much talent around him to work with.
Patrick Peterson is making a push for this spot as well. CBs are maybe not as sexy a pick as a big, tough defensive lineman, but it is hard to ignore the kind of impact a top corner has on his team.
Look for Carolina’s new coaching regime to work on some improvement on the defense and wait for 2012 to consider the QB position. With the plethora of needs, I don’t see Carolina crawling out of a top draft position next year, leaving them in position to take Luck or Barkley.
As for Fairley...I'm not certain what else needs to be said of him. He came into his own this season, and the National Championship Game was the crown on his season. He holds an incredible initial burst of speed and power that will disrupt opposing offenses.
The concern is that this year could be an anomaly. He wasn't overly impressive in 2009; could he have a drop off next year similar to what Adrian Clayborn did this season? He also has some character concerns that I'm sure Carolina, Denver and Buffalo addressed with him at the combine.
2. Denver Broncos: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson 6'3" 280 Lbs.
2 of 33With John Fox taking over the reins of the Broncos, one wonders how much time he has to turn this franchise’s fortunes around. Bowers is the exact kind of defender he will covet as he transitions Denver back to a 4-3 defensive front, and will help Denver crawl out of the depths of the AFC.
He is a big, athletic DE that also lined up as a DT at times. I don't expect to see him lined up inside in the NFL, but he is solid against the run and the pass. I'm sure the Broncos are hoping he isn't taken with the top overall pick, which is a distinct possibility.
The wild card with Denver is a new front office. There have been comments that Elway and Fox don't have the same faith in Tebow as McDaniels did. If they don’t see him as the future for the orange, this is their chance to grab a potential elite QB without having to trade up to do it. If the reports are true, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a different "Tiger" here.
3. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU 6'0" 219 Lbs
3 of 33Buffalo will have several options with this pick, as they have needs at WR, DE, LB, and possibly QB. I’m tempted to follow others and put Newton here, as the Bills have hinted they will look at the QB position. However, I’m not convinced that they are done with Fitzpatrick yet. As bad as his supporting cast was, he ran the offense fairly well last year.
Could it be that Buddy Nix is using his reputation as a bit of an open book to entice someone into trading into position to get Newton? Cincinnati, Arizona and San Francisco are all potential trade partners. One of them might be willing to give up some draft capital to get their QB...if they feel Newton or Gabbert will be the next big thing.
As for Peterson—what really needs to be said? He’s about the most talented player in the draft, and will help shore up at least a big chunk of their pass defense.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn 6'5", 248 Lbs
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The run on Tigers in this draft continues. Despite what seems like conventional wisdom that A.J. Green will be a Bengal, I’m taking a different slant here.
Carson Palmer could be on the decline following a shoulder injury, and very well may be on his way out. He has stated he will retire before playing another down as a Bengal.
As much as the Bengals have concerns with receiving options, pairing Green with Chad Whatchamacallit won’t matter if they don’t have someone to get them the ball. Newton is a proven leader, and most of his off-field distractions won’t matter once he takes the field as a professional and "icon." There are other questions regarding his readiness for the NFL, but the Bengals have shown a penchant for taking a gamble in the first round on players with a high potential reward.
Newton neither provided a wow factor nor created new concerns at the combine. Granted, his throwing accuracy and precision left a bit to be desired, but scouts, coaches and GMs understand he is working on his conversion to working from under center. His performance at his recent media day provided enough energy to have concerns from his combine workouts eased.
Eyes will now be focused on his upcoming pro day, but opinions will also be tempered. It is widely accepted that one of the best pro days ever was that of JaMarcus Russell, and we all know how that turned out. Don't get me wrong—I don't expect Newton to be another Russell. But neither do I expect GMs with concerns on Russell's NFL abilities to be swayed by a performance in shorts and a dry-tech top.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M 6'3", 246 Lbs
5 of 33This was actually about the easiest selection for me to make, despite the Cardinals being in the hunt for a QB.
I’m not sold that Max Hall or John Skelton are their future. I expect them to bring in a veteran to bridge the gap, allowing them to make that determination. This could be signing McNabb or Bulger, or making a trade for a viable starting QB.
Another writer (Luke Bunger, Cardinals Featured Columnist for bleacherreport.com) made the argument that a trade for Kevin Kolb, while expensive, could also be seen as giving up draft picks to retain Larry Fitzgerald (he is a free agent at the end of the 2011 season and his contract does not allow the Cardinals to use the franchise tag on him). The argument holds merit, so long as they can convince Fitz to sign a contract extension contingent on acquiring Kolb.
If Arizona counts on an older free agent and their two young QBs to carry the passing load in 2011, and end up failing, there are worse fates. That outcome will set them up to grab Luck or Barkley in 2012, which could still be enough incentive for Fitzgerald to re-sign with the club.
In the interest of discussing this pick: Von Miller has been gaining recognition since his performance at the Senior Bowl, and should step in and give Arizona a needed lift in their pass rush. He's fast and athletic, but might need a bit more bulk for the NFL. He can get absorbed by bigger offensive linemen at times.
Miller has a tendency to take a wide outside swing when trying to get to the QB. This led to a lot of delayed runs by opposing QBs, taking advantage of the hole that he left in the defense. I don't see this being as much of an issue in the NFL, but he will need to fine-tune and expand his rush skills. One trick ponies don't fare so well against NFL tackles.
6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia 6'4", 211 Lbs
6 of 33The top of the draft couldn't work out much better for the Browns. They have needs elsewhere on offense, such as the entire line, but they will be able to work on that in round two. They might be interested in getting another top CB to play opposite Joe Haden, but Green would be too tempting to pass up.
The Browns showed some signs of life last season. They dealt to get into position to draft Colt McCoy, and that move looks like it will pay dividends for years to come…particularly when he has some weapons around him. I was outspoken that the Seahawks should have drafted McCoy instead of trading for Charlie Whitehurst, and I took some heat from fans that think he is too small or has too weak an arm to succeed in the NFL.
McCoy may not have the strongest arm, and Green will certainly challenge him with his speed. But look for these two young players to develop a strong rapport over the coming seasons, as Mike Holmgren looks to direct another comeback of a franchise. Yes, Cleveland has two young WRs with potential, but neither brings the skill set that Green does.
Despite other WRs putting up faster track times at the combine, speed in full pads and when focusing on catching the ball is different. Green has game day speed. He also has amazing body control and awareness of where he is on the football field. He simply gets open and makes amazing moves with the football, and would be a major boost to this young offense.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri 6'4", 234 Lbs
7 of 33This pick is as difficult for me to make as it is for many 49er fans to swallow. San Francisco has many areas of need, despite the beliefs of their President, players and a large percentage of their fan base. They don’t have a starting QB, lack a pass rush, and are weak in the defensive backfield. They could also use some help at WR, and despite using two first round picks on the OL in 2010, this unit also has holes. Still...if they have a successful QB to work with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree they may again be the pre-season favorites to win the NFC West in 2011.
The advantage with a rookie head coach is he will have some latitude in the upcoming season as the team is retooled. Jim Harbaugh knows how important a QB is to winning in the NFL, and I see him pushing the 49ers to task. He recruited Gabbert coming out of high school, and recognizes the raw talent (obviously Harbaugh's thoughts on him as a college recruit are different than what he thinks he can do as a pro, but groundwork has been set). Anyone that believes Harbaugh doesn't feel he is up to the challenge of transforming Gabbert into an NFL QB doesn't know much about Harbaugh.
Gabbert will have to work on footwork and get re-accustomed to working from under center. He has shown the ability to look down-field and make read progressions from the spread formation. He has also shown that he can scramble and still keep his eyes on his receivers. He can draw in defenders after tucking the ball, only to pull up and throw to receivers that have come open.
Gabbert has a strong arm and has shown the ability to look off defenses and manipulate coverage to his receivers' advantage. Again...he did this from the shotgun in a spread formation. He'll need to refine these skills in a five or seven step drop, but he has a high QB IQ. This should translate well to the NFL, and should attract the attention of Harbaugh as he tries to bring the 49ers back to prominence.
8. Tennessee Titans: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama 6'3", 319 Lbs
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Mr. Rock, meet Mr. Hard Space. Oh…sorry. It appears a Titan is stuck between you.
I’d normally expect a team drafting this high to have a lot of needs, but I don’t think that is the case in Nashville. Their large hole at QB is the most glaring among them, followed closely by needs at OG and along the defensive front seven.
Their decision here will be to gamble on Jake Locker in the top 10, or gamble that he or another top QB prospect will fade into the second round. Locker looked solid enough at the combine that he will make their decision a little more difficult.
Dareus is the best player on the board, and fills a need, even if not a huge one. I actually think Locker would be the better option, but it will be hard for them to take the third QB in the draft with pick eight. Kaepernick, Ponder and Mallett will be waiting for them in the second round, allowing them to get some help on the interior of the offensive line in round three.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC 6'5", 307 Lbs
9 of 33For a team that many expected to make a Super Bowl run in 2010, a top 10 pick is a definite surprise. Well, to most of us. I was derided last August for stating the Cowboys would be no better than third in their division and well out of the playoffs. My reasoning seemed solid, including the Cowboys having the third-best OL in Texas.
The Cowboys must shore up this unit this offseason, and need to find some OT talent in the draft. Despite current rankings, I believe Tyron Smith will be the best OT in this draft and is worthy of a top 10 pick. He lacks the mental side of the game coaches would like to see, but he does have the capacity to be taught. What can’t be learned is athleticism, which is where Smith excels.
He reported to the combine at 307 pounds and holding the weight well. He also boasts a reach of 36.5” and might be able to play either tackle position. He had an impressive bench workout, but a lingering knee issue kept him on the sidelines for agility and speed drills. That was unfortunate, as coaches and GMs would like to see how he moves with his expanded frame.
I do admit that the top 10 is a bit of a reach, and a talent like Amukamara may be too much to pass up here. DB is definitely a need for the Boys; they allowed a mile of passing through the air over a five game stretch this season, and without some serious help that will continue in 2011. However, they will be able to grab a good CB or S in round two. A quality starting tackle will be a bigger reach 40 picks in, though.
Dallas could consider moving down if a trade partner can be found. Don't count on Smith getting past Detroit with the 13th pick, though.
10. Washington Redskins: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska 6'0", 206 Lbs
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It would be easier to mention what the Redskins don’t need to work on this offseason. They are set at SS and good at TE and K. Their OLB options are questionable…some claim they are solid, and others are concerned that a rush LB is needed to play opposite Orakpo.
They definitely need some help with their pass rush, which will give Robert Quinn some consideration here. However, Amukamara will likely edge him out. I would be tempted with Quinn, as the Redskin DBs are having to work too hard because of their complete lack of a pass rush. But that is a short-term answer.
In a few seasons, when the Redskins can get rebuilt and challenge again, they’ll be glad they took Amukamara. He may not get an island named after him, but will definitely be seen as DB royalty.
11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina 6'4", 265 Lbs
11 of 33Robert Quinn would most likely be a top 5 pick if he’d not been sitting out the 2010 season because the NCAA (Non-Crimes Are Actionable) decided to wrap him up into one of their witch hunts. The combine was important for Quinn to show he is still in solid shape.
Pro scouts must be interested in how he moves through the drills. He showed the needed quickness; expect him to fill a strong need for the Texans, providing a strong pass rush from the OLB position and some run support. His size will keep him from anchoring a DE position for them, though. This can be viewed in the video above. He had a solid pass rush, but got pushed around by Castonzo when he was run blocking.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama 6'3", 220 Lbs
12 of 33This is a tough decision. The Vikings still have a lot of talent on their roster, but much of it is aging. They need to make a decision on if they are going to re-tool and attempt to make a playoff run, or spend a year or two rebuilding and adding some youth in key positions. I would go with the latter; the division is quite talented right now, and the Vikings need youth on both lines and help at safety. Oh, yeah…and they could really use a franchise QB.
Coach Frazier stated that they are looking to find the next rookie phenom to play under center. As tempted as I am to pen Jake Locker here (that’s who I would take), I think the Vikings will look for other help here and target Kapaernick in round two or Mallett in the third. Locker may struggle without a mentor and the Vikings need some young blockers.
But now that it has been reported that Sidney Rice won’t re-sign prior to free agency, this pick takes on a whole new look. I’ve had Locker and Cameron Jordon slated at number 12, but the speed and athleticism that Jones showed at the combine drove me to move him up the board (I originally had him going to Kansas City at pick 21).
We knew Jones could be a dynamic playmaker, and the combine performance will spark additional interest. One of the primary arguments for Green being a higher pick was speed; playing speed and 40 times are different, but Jones definitely helped his draft stock this weekend.
13. Detroit Lions: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin 6'7", 314 Lbs
13 of 33The Lions have watched their young QB go down with injury two seasons in a row. If they want to avoid going for the hat trick, they need to upgrade their talent at OT. I struggle on the value of the available OTs here, but I believe Gabe Carimi will be a solid tackle in the NFL and would make sense for the Lions.
I had Jimmy Smith penciled in here, as the Lions are as bad off at CB as they are at LT. However, there figures to be a top five CB available in the second round. There won’t be an NFL-ready LT available then. If the Lions want to help Stafford shed the glass doll moniker, they need to draft a solid pass blocker.
There is a lot of talk about Nate Solder, but I don’t get it. He was embarrassed often this year by quick DEs. With the number of them he’ll find in the NFL, I wouldn’t spend a first round pick on him. Carimi was responsive and a force in the ground game, and was solid in pass protection. He was also a big winner at the combine; he displayed the expected power in the bench press, and was quick and relatively nimble in the agility drills. He helped himself more than any other potential first round talent.
14. St. Louis Rams: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri 6'4", 263 Lbs
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Big surprise…everyone has the Rams taking Julio Jones here. Bigger surprise…I didn’t. Sam Bradford looked solid in 2010 throwing to a glorified practice squad. Imagine what he could do with a few NFL-worthy receivers, right?!
Josh McDaniels has shown the ability to get a lot out of his receivers. The Rams will get Donnie Avery back from injury and work to keep Mark Clayton or grab a WR in free agency. This will allow them to use their first draft pick to revive a weak pass rush, and Smith will be too enticing to pass up. He is big enough and certainly strong enough to play DE in a 4-3 set, but he moves like an OLB.
Receiver isn’t as big a need as a pass rush for the Rams. Even if Julio Jones is still available, expect Smith to get tagged here. There are some fast, talented receivers in this draft and St. Louis can snag one in the following round.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama 5'9", 215 Lbs
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This also seems to be a consensus pick. The Dolphins have relied on a strong ground game, but will likely be losing their talent at the position this offseason. They also could use some help on the offensive line, and could be looking at the QB position. If they can get a contract signed with Ronnie Brown, I could see them grabbing Jake Locker, as I don’t see Chad Henne or Tyler Thigpen as their future.
There has been some talk of Ingram falling down the draft board because of a slower than expected 40 time at the combine. I'm not so sure the pro scouts were expecting him to be faster than 4.6. His talent is his strength and his burst of speed. He was still the fastest RB in the first 10 yards, and last I checked that initial burst and shiftiness were a lot more important than running 40 yards in gym shorts.
16. Cameron Jordan, DE, California 6'4", 287 Lbs
16 of 33I can see Ryan Kerrigan and Adrian Clayborn being considered here, but Jordan had a more consistent season of the three. His size will make him the better fit in the Jaguars’ defense. He is versatile enough to convert to a 3-4 set, and Cal even used him as a DT at times.
A slow 40 time at the combine could have knocked him down a few pegs. Kerrigan would have benefited to be the pick here, but Jordan put up a 4.78 compared to a marginally better 4.71 for Kerrigan. Jordan looks ready to to step in and start in the NFL.
17. New England Patriots: Jake Locker, QB, Washington 6'3", 231 Lbs
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No, this isn’t a typo. And no, I haven’t lost my mind. Well, I don’t think I have.
The problem with being a perennial playoff contender is it takes some work to get high draft picks and the franchise QBs that tend to go with them. In essence, you need to get lucky. You know, like finding one of the game’s best QBs in the sixth round or finding bad teams willing to give up first round draft picks. Or in the case of the Raiders, two first round picks.
The Patriots have about 18% of the picks in the first three rounds (OK...it is only six), giving them leverage and affording them a luxury pick. They could use some youth at OT, some upgrades on defense where they may have too much youth, and will likely look at getting a RB under age 30.
A question they need to consider is when will they next be in position to get the QB to take over for Tom Brady? Did lightening strike a second time with the undrafted Brian Hoyer? Do they want to be in the position of finding out the hard way? Brady has been fairly healthy in his career, but will the Patriots want to risk him being able to still play at age 40?
Locker has the tools to be successful, and I actually think his Senior Bowl performance helped him a fair amount. He showed good pocket presence and made some solid throws that were dropped. He also showed well at the combine, moving well in testing and drills, and showing better footwork and solid throws when passing. My biggest concern with Locker is following progressions to find open targets instead of just tucking the ball to run. The speed and size of NFL defenders will cure him of that...quickly.
NFL coaches will recognize the talent issues he had at Washington and see Locker as a threat to be a top franchise QB. If he lasts this long, the Patriots can start to plan for the future.
Can you imagine—Locker learning under Brady for a few years and then taking over as their signal caller?
18. San Diego Chargers: J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin 6'5", 290 Lbs
18 of 33The list of needs for the Chargers is very simple. They need to win some games in September for a change. The front seven of their defense is what needs the most attention to get them over that hump, so look for them to take the best DL or OLB available.
Akeem Ayers is a possibility, and I also struggle with dropping Kerrigan in this spot. But the versatility of Watt will be too much to pass up. Some are mocking Watt as high as the ninth pick, while others see him in the mid- to late-twenties. I fall in between, and see him bringing some intensity to the Charger defense.
He has a solid mix of speed and strength, takes smart lines to the QB, and keeps pressing. His stat lines claims seven sacks for the season, but I feel that number is a bit shy. He was credited with two sacks vs. Ohio State, but the video above shows him getting to Pryor at least four times.
19. New York Giants: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois 6'2", 298 Lbs
19 of 33I will admit that I am caving to peer pressure by putting Liuget in the top 20. There are a few guys in this draft that I don’t see as being quite as good as their hype. Liuget is one of them. Perhaps I just need the luxury of a little more video for him.
The Giants do need an interior pass rusher; Rocky Bernard hasn’t given them the presence they hoped for, and Barry Cofield could be lost to FA. Liuget should at least help with getting some pressure on opposing QBs.
He is a big, strong guy and can work his way through the line. However, in the three games I was able to watch, I became accustomed to seeing rushers run through his gaps. In his zeal to get past his blocker, he seems to lose sight of his gaps and allows running backs to break through.
I'd feel better placing him late in the first or early in the second round, but true nose tackles are a little thin this draft. He has great physical tools and should be able to make a positive impact in New York.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa 6'3", 280 Lbs
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Clayborn is another tough call for me. Most lists have him in the top 15, and his 40 time at the combine has been highly anticipated. He performed adequate, but well behind some of the first round talent.
Clayborn was a beast during the 2009 season, and he was huge in their Orange Bowl game. However, he seemed to lack the same intensity at times during the 2010 campaign. He showed flashes of speed on one play, getting to the QB and causing havoc in the passing game. On the next he could be seen getting pushed around in run defense.
As much as I’d like to pencil him in higher, I’m also tempted to drop him out of round one. Concerns with how he’d transition to a 3-4 system limits his potential teams. Tampa Bay will see him as a good value, and he could be very solid as a pass rusher for them.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College 6'7", 311 Lbs
21 of 33As mentioned earlier, I had Julio Jones falling to the Chiefs at one point. His presence would have balanced out their receiving options and help Bowe out. WR will have to wait until a later round, and the Chiefs will look for a long-term answer at OT here instead of hoping to grab someone in FA.
Many experts consider Castaonzo to be the top LT prospect in the draft. He’s my third pick, following Smith and Carimi, but is likely the guy I would take if I only needed a LT.
His combine performances were as expected, showing good mobility and adequate stamina in the bench press. He started every game in four years at BC, but he’ll need to work on stopping power rushers in the NFL. His quickness and positioning skills will compensate for deficiencies in the strength department.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State 6'1", 303 Lbs
22 of 33With mounting pressure from his blind side, Peyton Manning actually looked human at times this year. Most fans expected the Colts to grab a LT last draft, especially after GM Bill Polian criticized the unit after their Super Bowl loss.
He readily admits not grabbing Saffold was a big mistake...one I'm sure he doesn't plan to repeat. The problem is, despite Nate Solder being on the board, I believe all the first round talent is gone at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts move up a few spots to make sure they get the LT they desperately need.
I’ve been unsure about Paea going in the first round. Part of that could be that I’d love to see the Seahawks grab him in round two, as he is a guy that promises to be tough against the rush and able to apply pressure to the QB.
His combine performance makes him tough to ignore. If you somehow missed it, he added an additional four reps to the prior combine bench press record of 45.
Not to take anything away from him, but his shorter arms do make him more of a bench pressing machine than an OT with a 36” reach.
Paea has the ability to blow through gaps and stuff the run. Even when double teamed he can hold his ground. At times he seems undisciplined in the pass rush, and will need to hone those skills in the NFL to reach his potential. His reported work ethic should translate into success.
His ability to step in and start in the NFL as a rookie validates his first round selection, and he could very well make a bigger impact than Liuget in the right system. I would be hesitant to draft him into a 3-4 scheme, but Indianapolis should be a good fit.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA 6'3", 254 Lbs
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If available, I don’t anticipate it will take Philly long to get their draft card turned in for Ayers. OLB is a distinct area of need, and Ayers will provide needed versatility to give the Eagles a little more push on the QB, solid run defense and solid pass protection. CB is also an area of need, but Ayers provides too much value at this spot to be ignored. Just what the NFC East needs…one of their teams getting another impact player.
24. New Orleans Saints: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU 6'1", 294 Lbs
24 of 33Nevis is a difficult player to peg. At the start of the season he wasn’t garnering any attention above the fourth round. However, he finally began seeing some playing time in his senior season, and rode those opportunities to becoming a Second Team All American. The Saints need some help up front, and with the 24th pick I think Nevis is worth the gamble.
The Saints could use safety help, but that position is soft this draft. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them look at the RB position here or in round two.
Nevis is explosive off the line and is disruptive in all aspects of the game. His top end speed has come under scrutiny, making it difficult to finish off his sack attempts once a QB is flushed from the pocket. I would have felt more comfortable with him being a first round pick had he broke 5.0 seconds at the combine, but a 5.06 in the 40 and 31 reps in the bench could still be enough to solidify his draft position.
I expect teams in the NFL to scheme well with him. Despite being a bit undersized, he looks to be capable as a three technique DT (albeit likely just a one gap technician). He should also fit as a five technique DE in a 3-4 system. His short arms may be a liability in the NFL, but his hands are always working, giving him opportunities to make plays.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado 6'2", 211 Lbs
25 of 33In early February I mentioned Jimmy Smith being an ideal candidate for Seattle with the 25th pick…if he’d last that long. On one side I had people telling me he wouldn’t be a first round draft pick, and on the other end I was being told how Seattle needed OL. I expect Seattle to grab a guard in round two, and I believe most of the OTs in this draft are not worth a first round pick. Seattle is better off waiting until 2012 to determine their need at RT, allowing Stacy Andrews to take over that position in 2011.
Another first round option is for the Seahawks to grab a a QB. However, with the top three passing options off the board, first round talent at the position would be spent. They also need to look at DL…Drake Nevis could be an option if he isn't already gone, or Seattle could look to make a move or two to get a third round pick and draft Jurrell Casey.
As for this pick—Smith is exactly the kind of CB that Carroll likes. He is tall (Carroll won’t take a CB under 6’0”), can be physical and imposing at the line, and is quick enough to be disruptive in the secondary. He seems to take bad lines in run support, and has a habit of stopping on plays before they are actually done. Expect that to be driven out of him early in Pete Carroll’s camp.
At one point I had the Lions taking Smith and ignoring their overwhelming need to draft an OT. I may be giving the Lions too much credit, or maybe it is just wishful thinking, but as of right now I see Smith wearing Seahawk Blue next August.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami 5'10", 191 Lbs
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For all this franchise has done right over recent seasons, the CB position isn’t one of them. Injuries left the team thin and forced them to make a move right before the start of the season to shore up the position. They acquired Josh Wilson from Seattle, and finagled the compensation to a fifth round pick instead of a fourth round selection had Wilson made one more start. It would only be fitting if Seattle managed to snag the CB the Ravens wanted.
Harris isn't exactly a poor consolation prize. Aside from his height deficiency, he has the ability to be a solid starter in the NFL. He should excel in man to man coverage, as he changes directions well and has solid speed. The Ravens would also bring in another player from “The U” to team up with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Harris also brings a toughness that will help him fit right in.
Aaron Williams (CB, Texas) is another option here, but given the Ravens didn't seem to be concerned with Josh Wilson's height, they shouldn't back away from Harris.
Titus Young is another possible selection, as the Ravens’ pass catchers are aging.
27. Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland 6'1", 204 Lbs
27 of 33As good as Roddy White was for the Falcons, he was one of Matt Ryan’s few viable options in the passing game. That lack of dimension spells trouble come playoff time, and expect this issue to be resolved in short order.
I originally had Titus Young in this spot, but I believe Smith will be a better option here. He put up an impressive 4.43 in the 40 yard dash at the combine, and is a better option to take over in the slot. Smith has much better size than Young (3" and 30 lbs.), and Smith holds a better vertical leap. He has shown the ability to get separation and win jump balls, and has great acceleration off the line. This gives him the nod over Young or options at DE, but he will need to improve route running skills.
28. New England Patriots: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue 6'4", 267 Lbs
28 of 33Three of the four teams drafting before the Patriots’ next pick need help on the offensive line, so New England might feel the need to pull the trigger on the offensive line here. However, I can’t see them passing up Kerrigan if he is still available...not to mention my aforementioned concerns with the rest of the offensive line. I do expect the Patriots to take the best available OT at the start of round two, though.
I hate to throw out comments like “this guy just has a great motor,” but it fits for Kerrigan. Some draft boards have him going in the top 15, and I originally had him going to the Jaguars. He offers amazing value here, and will have a bigger, quicker and likely longer impact than Solder, Derek Sherrod or Benjamin Ijalana (one of which should still be available at 33).
Kerrigan is extremely quick off the edge. He uses his hands well to shed blockers and manages to find and disrupt QBs. I believe he’ll transition well to a 3-4 OLB and give the Patriots the punch they need opposite Jermaine Cunningham. While not having elite speed, he should still be quick enough to help in zone coverage.
29. Chicago Bears: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida 6'5", 303 Lbs
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The Bears need some help on the offensive line—desperately. Pouncey isn’t as good as his twin brother, and won’t justify a top 20 selection, but will likely be one of the better players on the board at the end of the first round. This will make him a solid match for the Bears.
I do have some concerns with how Pouncey will transition to the NFL. He was simply ran over at times by bigger, stronger nose tackles. He’ll find even more of them in the NFL and this weakness could become a big issue. Don’t expect him to be a road-grader in the ground game, either. He doesn't have a track record of pushing guys off the line and clearing holes. A good showing in the bench press at the combine would have helped his draft clout, but he did not participate.
30. New York Jets: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia 6'03", 270 Lbs
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Given the free agent status of the Jets' starting WRs, a solid pass catcher is their most glaring need. They were aggressive in getting Sanchez two drafts ago, and I can see them doing the same this year to get him another weapon.
If Julio Jones is off the board too early, the Jets may decide to wait and grab Torrey Smith or Titus Young. However, they also need a marquee sack machine. Houston put up double-digit sacks as a Junior, and would give some credibility to the Jets’ pass rush.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Benjamin Ijalana, OT/G, Villanova 6’4”, 317 Lbs
31 of 33I’m just glad I was able to find a viable way to not have Pouncey go to the Steelers. The story would just be too Hollywood-ish. Mike getting drafted by the team that took his twin brother last year…isn’t that sweet?
Chicago taking Pouncey could be a blessing for Pittsburgh. Even though most have Pouncey listed as the best interior lineman in the draft, I’m not convinced. Ijalana may have been playing against inferior talent at Villanova, but you can’t discount the way he took care of business. He showed good footwork (despite an occasional stutter-step), agility and strength at the LT position. He may be able to play tackle in the NFL, but he definitely has the frame and skill set to play guard in the NFL.
If I was into giving out nicknames, Ijalana would be the short order cook. He dished out one pancake after another as a run blocker. In pass blocking he simply never let his man get close to the QB, and in one clip I watched he took on two rushers...and shut them both down. He may be a bit of a risk in the first round, but he is worth it given the need for the Steelers.
32. Green Bay Packers: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple 6'4", 315 Lbs
32 of 33I’m struggling in my attempt to peg a defensive lineman into this spot. Cameron Heyward seemed like an obvious choice, but he lacks the consistency a Super Bowl team demands from its players.
Wilkerson is a solid, versatile player that can help plug holes and pressure opposing QBs. He has the size and acceptable speed to slide into a DE in the Packers’ 3-4 set. I don't see him being a huge impact player, but he should be a serviceable starter.
Nate Solder and Other Talent Some Have Slated for the 1st Round
33 of 33Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Last season Anthony Davis shot up many draft boards after the combine, but I just didn’t see him being ready for the NFL. I actually think he is better suited as a guard, and expect him to continue to struggle at RT. His equivalent in 2011 looks like Solder. He had an over-hyped Senior Bowl week performance, where some analysts were impressed by his athletic ability and his potential.
My problem is he looked very plain…even suspect for much of the season, despite the awards and accolades. Cal made him look like he should have never stopped playing TE. I watched his snaps in the Senior Bowl several times, and I still don’t agree with him being rated as the #1 OT.
Solder showed as expected at the combine, looking more like a TE than an OT. He had solid performances in the running and jumping drills, but was lacking in the strength department (21 reps on the bench press when his competition was in the upper 20’s).
Despite the speed and agility, Solder struggled against quick DEs this season. It won’t get better in the NFL, as those fast DEs are also strong…really, really strong. I'll happily apologize should he prove me wrong, but as of yet I haven't had to eat my words on Davis. Teams needing immediate help at OT shouldn't expect it from Solder; he is a project that will need time to develop.
Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
Heyward is a versatile D lineman that I just can’t quite figure out. Partly because I don’t have enough video on him, and partly because he can’t seem to figure out what kind of player he is. At times he seems to enforce his will on his opponents, only to be MIA for large stretches of a game. He was projected as a top 15 talent at the start of the season, only to see his value fall after a few poor games.
Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
There are a few teams that are desperate enough for help on the O Line that they might gamble on Sherrod in the first round. He does have a decent blend of height and mobility, and at 321 pounds he has the size to play OT in the NFL. He should be able to use his physical tools in the passing game, but don’t expect a strong push in the rushing attack. I expect Sherrod to be an early to mid second round pick.
Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
Williams could be an option in round one, but will likely be taken early in round two. He is the reason a team like San Francisco could take a QB in round one and still plan on getting a strong CB prospect on day two.
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