Fantasy Football 2016: Updated Fantasy Football Mock Draft

If you haven’t drafted your fantasy team yet, sitting through the NFL preseason was relatively stress-free. There’s no worrying about players on your roster staying healthy in meaningless games or practice. But now, with just one preseason game left, it’s time to assess what happened over the last month and get to drafting.

About two weeks ago, I presented my first mock draft in a unique format. Instead of controlling one team, I drafted for all 12 teams using various strategies to show different ways of building your roster.

In this mock, I took a different approach. Other than making sure I had the No. 12 pick, I used the FantasyPros Draft Simulator to auto-pick the other 11 teams using a combination of average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus rankings (ECR). Meanwhile, I took full control of the 12th team and will be providing insight on each one of my picks.

The starting lineup in this points-per-reception (PPR) league features one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and two flex spots (RB/WR/TE). I’m skipping defenses and kickers because you shouldn’t bother with them until the final two rounds, if you’re required to draft them at all.

Round 1: Zeke the Runner

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Don't let Tony Romo's injury worry you too much about Ezekiel Elliott.

Round 1

1. WR Antonio Brown, PIT

2. WR Julio Jones, ATL

3. RB David Johnson, ARI

4. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

5. RB Todd Gurley, LA

6. TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

7. WR A.J. Green, CIN

8. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

9. RB Lamar Miller, HOU

10. RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

11. WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ

12. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

It’s Up to You

If you aren’t drafting in the top three, you’ll probably be looking at personal preference when it comes to your first-round selection. Many are shying away from running backs because of how unreliable they were as a position last year, and that’s understandable. There’s not much of a consensus with the wide receivers after Brown, Jones and Beckham, although both Green and Hopkins seem like locks for the first round.

Peterson typically goes in the second half of the first round, although he could be anywhere from the third to fifth running back off the board. There’s a feeling of security and safety with him, which I get, although his ceiling isn’t as high as it once was.

Inside the Mind

Before the news of Tony Romo’s injury, I wouldn’t have expected Elliott to fall to the end of the round, and considering I didn’t move him down my rankings from the RB3 spot, I was thrilled to get him.

Knowing I could come back around with a wide receiver for my next pick made it easier to draft a position I’m not investing too much in during the early rounds. I consider Elliott a value in this spot, as he'll be the focal point of the Dallas offense.

Round 2: Everyone's New Favorite Player

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Allen Robinson won't be taking anyone by surprise this year.

Round 2

1. WR Allen Robinson, JAC

2. RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

3. WR Keenan Allen, SD

4. RB Devonta Freeman, ATL

5. WR Dez Bryant, DAL

6. WR Mike Evans, TB

7. WR Amari Cooper, OAK

8. WR Jordy Nelson, GB

9. RB Jamaal Charles, KC

10. WR Brandin Cooks, NO

11. WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI

12. RB Mark Ingram, NO

Decisions, Decisions

Three teams took a pair of wide receivers to start their drafts, but just one started with two running backs. Many have asked for a plan of action, including specific players, for their first two picks depending on where they are slotted, and I have a tough time answering because you just don’t know who will be available and when.

I don’t want to start my draft RB-RB because it’s too volatile of a position, so I’m not investing that much in it, at least not in the early rounds. A WR-WR start is fine because I know what kind of running backs will still be available in the coming rounds, as you’ll see in the third.

Having said that, I have no major issues with the backs in this round, other than Charles, who many are assuming will revert right back to the busy, productive player he was before last year’s torn ACL. Look for Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid to be more conservative with Charles, especially with a solid backup like Spencer Ware on the roster.

Inside the Mind

Based my conversations with others in this business, co-workers, friends and even some random people on the street, everyone loves Robinson. I don’t blame them, and based on that, don't bank on getting him in the second round. He’s the superstar of an offense that could be on the rise.

Even if the Jacksonville Jaguars struggle, he will still dominate for fantasy because he’s clearly their best player and commands a lot of targets.

Round 3: Stay Golden

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Golden Tate is looking for his third straight season with 90-plus receptions.

Round 3

1. WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN

2. RB Eddie Lacy, GB

3. WR T.Y. Hilton, IND

4. RB C.J. Anderson, DEN

5. RB LeSean McCoy, BUF

6. WR Jarvis Landry, MIA

7. WR Sammy Watkins, BUF

8. WR Julian Edelman, NE

9. WR Randall Cobb, GB

10. RB Doug Martin, TB

11. QB Cam Newton, CAR

12. WR Golden Tate, DET

Thinning Out

Another heavy wide receiver round cuts into the high-end depth of the position, but it also pushes some interesting RB names down the board, including some legit RB1 candidates such as Lacy, Anderson and McCoy. Martin is right on the border of the RB1 tier, but I’m fine with where he went in this draft. 

This is basically a group of WR2s, although Hilton could be a solid WR1 as the top option for Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. I’m not a huge Landry fan since too much of his value is tied to a high volume of targets. He saw 165 targets in 2015, and I refuse to believe he’ll average 10-plus targets per game again this season.

Inside the Mind

With the PPR format, when in doubt, search out the receptions. Tate has 189 receptions on 270 targets in his first two seasons in Detroit.

While Calvin Johnson did miss three games over those seasons, Tate still shared the field with him most of the time, and that’s why I’m not too concerned about the rise of Marvin Jones in Detroit’s offense. There’s more than enough to go around.

Round 4: The Mac Never Left

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Jeremy Maclin brings consistency with a high ceiling.

Round 4

1. WR Jeremy Maclin, KC

2. WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR

3. TE Jordan Reed, WAS

4. TE Greg Olsen, CAR

5. QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

6. WR Donte Moncrief, IND

7. RB Latavius Murray, OAK

8. TE Delanie Walker, TEN

9. RB Matt Forte, NYJ

10. QB Andrew Luck, IND

11. RB Thomas Rawls, SEA

12. RB Carlos Hyde, SF

Waiting Works

I always bring the early rounds back to the idea of comfort. If you’re comfortable starting your draft with three wide receivers, then do it.

You could land someone such as Rawls or Hyde in the fourth round knowing they have the chance to be in the low-end RB1 category. However, with a fourth-round pick, expectations don’t have to be that high since you’ve already built a team with three picks in front of him.

Inside the Mind

You won’t hear many people refer to the Alex Smith-led Kansas City offense as exciting. The Chiefs aren’t a team I specifically target in drafts, but I don’t avoid them altogether, either.

You know what you’re getting in the passing game, and that’s Maclin as the top option followed by tight end Travis Kelce. No one else is close to Maclin in the WR corps, and that means plenty of targets and receptions.

Last year, he set a personal high with 87 receptions on 124 targets, which was good for an impressive 70.2 percent catch rate. Maclin may not be as flashy or threaten to put up the same monster numbers as Julio Jones or Odell Beckham, but he is reliable and the top passing option in a solid offense.

I’ll take reliable for my third wide receiver.

Round 5: Catch On

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Danny Woodhead is a pick you make to play the PPR format.

Round 5

1. WR Eric Decker, NYJ

2. WR Doug Baldwin, SEA

3. RB Giovani Bernard, CIN

4. WR Jordan Matthews, PHI

5. WR Michael Floyd, ARI

6. WR Tyler Lockett, SEA

7. RB DeMarco Murray, TEN

8. RB Matt Jones, WAS

9. WR Michael Crabtree, OAK

10. WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

11. WR Allen Hurns, JAC

12. RB Danny Woodhead, SD

Time to Check In

Through five rounds, three quarterbacks, 21 running backs, 32 wide receivers and four tight ends have been drafted. None of those numbers are surprising, and they are about what I’d expect one-third of the way done.

The WR position is starting to turn into a matter of personal preference. Will Matthews be a reliable fantasy option in Philadelphia without the volume of new 49ers head coach Chip Kelly’s offense? Is Hurns that good, or did he benefit from a Jaguars offense that played from behind so often last season? Can Lockett take the next step, or will Baldwin’s presence limit his ceiling?

Inside the Mind

In a PPR format, I’m not letting Woodhead fall any lower. He was the No. 3 PPR running back last season, and many still aren’t convinced of just how good he is. I’m happy to have him as my second running back behind Elliott.

Once again, I’m aiming for a high reception total based on the format, so Woodhead was a no-brainer as a value at the end of the fifth round.

Round 6: Too Much of a Decent Thing?

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Travis Kelce may never live up to his full fantasy potential, but he's still really good.

Round 6

1. TE Travis Kelce, KC

2. TE Coby Fleener, NO

3. RB Duke Johnson, CLE

4. TE Julius Thomas, JAC

5. WR Marvin Jones, DET

6. WR John Brown, ARI

7. RB Jeremy Langford, CHI

8. WR Josh Gordon, CLE

9. WR DeVante Parker, MIA

10. WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

11. QB Russell Wilson, SEA

12. TE Zach Ertz, PHI

Unpredictable

Studying ADP can only take you so far. There will be wacky picks in your draft. Someone will reach on a position just to fill out their starting lineup with their first eight or nine picks. You see that here with Thomas. He’s a top-10 tight end but not worth a selection as the 64th overall pick.

I’ll always preach waiting on your quarterback, but Wilson at the end of the sixth is a good value. He’s usually the third signal-caller off the board about two rounds earlier, which is too rich for me, so I wasn’t expecting him to go this late.

Inside the Mind

Weighing the pros and cons of taking multiple players from the same team involves talent, opportunity and strength of the offense. My pick came down to Kelce and Jones, knowing I already selected their teammates Jeremy Maclin and Golden Tate, respectively, in previous rounds.

I like the Lions offense more for fantasy because its ceiling is higher, but it's also less proven, especially with Jones only signing this year. The Chiefs may not excite me, but I know how Kelce fits in and that he and Maclin are clearly the top options in the passing game. Plus, I already had three wide receivers and needed a tight end.

I admit this pick could come back to bite me since Jones has a chance at his best season yet.

Round 7: When the Waiting Ends

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

You know who's basically a lock for a top-five QB finish every year? Drew Brees.

Round 7

1. TE Tyler Eifert, CIN

2. WR Kevin White, CHI

3. WR Stefon Diggs, MIN

4. WR Corey Coleman, CLE

5. TE Gary Barnidge, CLE

6. RB Ameer Abdullah, DET

7. RB Jeremy Hill, CIN

8. RB Ryan Mathews, PHI

9. RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR

10. WR Sterling Shepard, NYG

11. RB Arian Foster, MIA

12. QB Drew Brees, NO

Inside the Mind

When I talk about waiting for a QB, my focus starts to shift to the position around the eighth round unless a supreme value pops up earlier. That’s what happened with Brees. 

I’m involved in multiple real and mock drafts every year, and this is the first time I’ve ended up with Brees. Why? Because he’s usually gone by the end of the sixth round at the latest, and I’m definitely not thinking about drafting my QB that early. 

With the foundation of my team already established and another pick coming up in the eighth round, I decided to lock up Brees as a top-five QB much later than I expected him to go in this or any draft. I wasn’t in love with anyone on the board at this point, and other than missing out on Hill, the rest of the seventh round didn’t excite me.

Round 8: Go Get Him

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No one has raised his fantasy stock more this month than Derrick Henry.

Round 8

1. RB Derrick Henry, TEN

2. WR DeSean Jackson, WAS

3. WR Willie Snead, NO

4. WR Steve Smith Sr., BAL

5. WR Michael Thomas, NO

6. QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

7. WR Tavon Austin, LA

8. WR Kamar Aiken, BAL

9. QB Philip Rivers, SD

10. TE Antonio Gates, SD

11. WR Torrey Smith, SF

12. WR Travis Benjamin, SD

Different Directions

When you’re at this portion of the draft, the players may not feel like the strongest options for your starting lineup. You can decide to take a risk on someone you like who may not be ready, such as Thomas. Or you can play it safe with a solid tight end, such as Gates.

Other than Thomas, every other player drafted in this round has a fairly clear role on his team or is at least established enough to get the benefit of the doubt early in the season. You can roll with those kinds of players at the beginning, but those are also the first to replace when you reassess your lineup and roster as a whole.

Inside the Mind

This pick was a serious debate even though it was the second part of a back-to-back. I had Melvin Gordon queued up and was prepared to take him at what I thought was a good value but decided against it because I already had Danny Woodhead. Investing in an offense is one thing, as I did with the Chiefs, but investing in an entire backfield can be overkill—although as you’ll find out, it can work. 

Henry has been impressive in the preseason, and part of that is the low expectations I had for him coming into August. He’s more well-rounded than I gave him credit for and should be in line for a much bigger role than anticipated. As my third running back, he’s not a lock for my starting lineup, but I have a feeling he’ll be at least a good flex all year.

Round 9: Can't Pass It Up

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Following a dreadful rookie season, Melvin Gordon's had an encouraging preseason.

Round 9

1. QB Tom Brady, NE

2. TE Martellus Bennett, NE

3. RB Frank Gore, IND

4. TE Dwayne Allen, IND

5. QB Carson Palmer, ARI

6. QB Blake Bortles, JAC

7. TE Jason Witten, DAL

8. TE Jimmy Graham, SEA

9. QB Eli Manning, NYG

10. QB Derek Carr, OAK

11. WR Devin Funchess, CAR

12. RB Melvin Gordon, SD

Inside the Mind

So after I tell you all about passing on Gordon because I already had Danny Woodhead, I end up taking him anyway. I was surprised to see him still on the board, and at this point, the value was too good to pass up.

When you invest in multiple players out of the same backfield, it’s almost always to get a top fantasy back and his handcuff to prepare for the worst. Handcuffs usually don’t come into play until the double-digit rounds, so you’re not using an important pick to grab one.

Woodhead and Gordon are two different players, and if Gordon were to go down as the main ball-carrier, Woodhead would not jump into that role. The Chargers want Gordon to lead the team in carries while still keeping Woodhead heavily involved in the passing game and near the goal line, as they did last year. 

Because Gordon is my fourth back, I can probably avoid playing both Woodhead and Gordon at the same time. Still, it’s not a big deal if I need them both since they play different yet still important roles for the Chargers.

Round 10: A Forgotten Man

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Don't forget about Vincent Jackson.

Round 10

1. WR Vincent Jackson, TB

2. WR Markus Wheaton, PIT

3. RB DeAngelo Williams, PIT

4. WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL

5. RB Charles Sims, TB

6. RB Rashad Jennings, NYG

7. RB Chris Ivory, JAC

8. RB Justin Forsett, BAL

9. TE Zach Miller, CHI

10. RB Theo Riddick, DET

11. RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC

12. RB Jay Ajayi, MIA

Time to Check In

With 10 rounds completed, it’s time to look at the positional breakdown through 120 picks. Twelve quarterbacks are gone, one for every team, but that includes Tom Brady. So only 11 of those quarterbacks account for potential Week 1 starters, given Brady's four-game suspension.

The RB number is slightly lower than expected, but that might have something to do with 15 tight ends already gone. That’s not typical and is likely a result of the two flex spots, both of which you can fill with a tight end.

The 54 wide receivers selected make up nearly half, so you expect the pickings to get slim around here. It’s about time to look at possible sleepers, although no wide receivers in this round would qualify for that title.

Inside the Mind

Jackson may be a boring pick, but that’s partly because he’s getting overlooked. At 33 and entering his 12th season, you probably don’t think much of Jackson in relation to fantasy value. A look at last year’s numbers won’t change that perception.

A knee injury was the main catalyst for his missing six games, resulting in one of the worst seasons of his career after four straight campaigns of at least 1,000 yards receiving. 

My last WR pick was Jeremy Maclin in the fourth round, so it felt like time to grab another. Because of the abundance of wide receivers off the board, I didn’t have many options to choose from unless I reached for a young upside player, and I planned to do that in the next few rounds.

Jackson made the most sense. A 70-catch season from him isn’t out of the question.

Round 11: Predicting a Fix

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Will the Giants utilize Shane Vereen properly after a disappointing 2015 season?

Round 11

1. RB James White, NE

2. RB Bilal Powell, NYJ

3. TE Ladarius Green, PIT

4. RB LeGarrette Blount, NE

5. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL

6. RB Christine Michael, SEA

7. RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE

8. WR Spencer Ware, KC

9. WR Mike Wallace, BAL

10. RB DeAndre Washington, OAK

11. TE Jared Cook, GB

12. RB Shane Vereen, NYG

Inside the Mind

At second glance, I would have gone in a different direction with this pick. Instead of hoping for Vereen to bounce back and be utilized as a consistent pass-catcher for the Giants, I could have gone for the upside of Coleman or Washington.

For months, I’ve said Coleman is primed to cut into Devonta Freeman’s touches, and the team has indicated as such by rotating the two in preseason action. If Freeman struggles to run it, as he did in the second half of last year, expect Coleman to gain an even bigger role. 

Washington has shown some juice during the preseason, and that’s something teammate Latavius Murray doesn’t have. The Raiders aren’t in a rush to make any changes with Murray, but if they give Washington a chance to contribute, he could play his way into a nice role.

Round 12: Clear Handcuff

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Alfred Morris looks like the top backup behind Ezekiel Elliott.

Round 12

1. RB Alfred Morris, DAL

2. RB Chris Johnson, ARI

3. RB Darren Sproles, PHI

4. RB Darren McFadden, DAL

5. TE Eric Ebron, DET

6. TE Charles Clay, BUF

7. WR Sammie Coates, PIT

8. WR Rishard Matthews, TEN

9. WR Bruce Ellington, SF

10. WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN

11. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB

12. RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN

Who Do You Like?

That’s the only question that comes to mind in these late rounds. The difference in fantasy value is negligible at this point, so you can go after players you like based on talent, situation or upside. 

With a great preseason and a wide-open opportunity with the Tennessee Titans, Sharpe has become a trendy pick in the late rounds. Ellington was in that conversation more often early in the preseason, but that hype has cooled thanks to a terrible QB situation in San Francisco.

Inside the Mind

Unless a handcuff is clear, I don’t bother grabbing one for my top running backs. Many flocked to grab Alfred Blue behind Arian Foster last season, and that turned into an annoying committee when Foster went down with Blue occasionally producing for fantasy.

If I’m taking a handcuff, I expect him to immediately take over a big role for my injured starter, or else what’s the point?

I think I have that in Morris behind my first-round selection, Ezekiel Elliott. Not only has Morris looked good in the preseason, but he’d be stepping into one of the best situations in the league with a great offensive line and a run-first offense.

Darren McFadden is still working his way back from an elbow injury, so his status with the team is in question. That tells me Morris is a key handcuff to grab as the replacement for Elliott.

Round 13: Up and Away

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Phillip Dorsett should contribute a lot more than he did as a rookie.

Round 13

1. RB Devontae Booker, DEN

2. RB C.J. Prosise, SEA

3. RB Javorius “Buck” Allen, BAL

4. RB James Starks, GB

5. RB Charcandrick West, KC

6. RB Terrance West, BAL

7. RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL

8. WR Anquan Boldin, DET

9. RB Tim Hightower, NO

10. RB Jordan Howard, CHI

11. WR Tyler Boyd, CIN

12. WR Phillip Dorsett, IND

Inside the Mind

As I talked about in the last round, these late picks are all about who you like as potential sleepers. When I mentioned positive reasons for taking a player this late, Dorsett came to mind because last year he was an underutilized talent in a bad situation.

That limited his upside. 

With Andrew Luck back under center and the team expected to use more three-wide receiver sets, Dorsett should get on the field more with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. If those two draw the top cornerbacks, Dorsett should be free to showcase his talent in beatable matchups. That’s the kind of upside you’re looking for late in your draft.

Rounds 14-15: Little Risk, Possible Reward

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Breshad Perriman might have the most raw talent in Baltimore's wide receiver corps.

Round 14

1. RB Chris Thompson, WAS

2. WR Victor Cruz, NYG

3. TE Clive Walford, OAK

4. WR Kendall Wright, TEN

5. RB Robert Turbin, IND

6. RB Josh Ferguson, IND

7. QB Jameis Winston, TB

8. QB Kirk Cousins, WAS

9. QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA

10. WR Will Fuller, HOU

11. QB Matthew Stafford, DET

12. WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN

Round 15

1. QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF

2. RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI

3. RB Shaun Draughn, SF

4. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, PHI

5. WR Terrelle Pryor, CLE

6. WR Seth Roberts, OAK

7. QB Marcus Mariota, TEN

8. RB Paul Perkins, NYG

9. QB Andy Dalton, CIN

10. QB Matt Ryan, ATL

11. RB Dion Lewis, NE

12. WR Breshad Perriman, BAL

Whatever You Can Get

At this point, you’re reaching for any player who has a shot at contributing something meaningful for fantasy this season, preferably without waiting too long. These two rounds ended up handling a lot of backup situations, including Team 1’s pick of Tyrod Taylor as Tom Brady’s replacement for the first four weeks.

Flashy preseason performances from Pryor has made him a popular lottery ticket, which is fine even though I think he’ll be inconsistent and nothing more than a boom-or-bust player in a rebuilding offense. Fuller has also flashed this preseason but has a better chance at a more consistent role in Houston.

Inside the Mind

My last attempt at finding some catches comes in the form of Thompson. When healthy, running back Matt Jones will lead the way in Washington’s backfield, but Thompson should have a steady role in the passing game no matter what’s going on with Jones. 

I’m taking a deep shot with Perriman. Injuries marred his rookie season and this past offseason, but he’s finally back on the practice field and has a legit chance to be a contributor in the offense in 2016.

He’s a former first-round pick who has the speed (4.24-second 40-yard dash) and size (6'2", 215 lbs) to fit well with Baltimore Ravens signal-caller Joe Flacco, and it’s not like the team has much settled at wide receiver. If Perriman takes too long to get going and I can’t stash him, he’ll be the first player off my roster.

Special thanks to our friends at FantasyPros for providing stats. ADPs accurate heading into Tuesday.

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