NFL Week 15: Mike Tanier's Previews and Score Predictions

In this week's Game Previews:

• The Panthers plan to beat the current Giants by becoming more like the old Giants.

• The Eagles (and other teams) regret cancelling an interview with Bruce Arians three years ago.

• The Cowboys refuse to make excuses for Dez Bryant's poor season, except for the multiple excuses they have already made.

• The Jaguars and Falcons battle for the right to be called the Junior Varsity Seahawks.

• Adrian Peterson chases down records, possibly picking up a Vikings victory or two along the way.

• The Colts and Texans...never mind, it's too depressing.

And much more, starting with a mini-playoff between the Steelers and Broncos.         

As always, these previews are listed in the order that you are supposed to read them. All stats are from NFLGSIS.com, unless otherwise stated, and all times are Eastern.

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5), Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Steelers beat the Bengals last week. The Steelers host the Broncos this week. The Broncos host the Bengals next week.

It's a tidy little pre-playoffs round robin, one you could see coming when the schedules were released. The three AFC runners-up get to beat each other up while the Patriots fatten themselves on the AFC South. If the Steelers or Broncos emerge 2-0 from this series, they might as well be scheduled against the Patriots for the AFC Championship Game the following week. No need for the rest of the AFC playoffs, right?

The Steelers are the only team with a healthy quarterback in the round robin, which is why they have replaced the Broncos and Bengals as the official Team That Could Beat The Patriots™, even though the Broncos (unlike the Steelers) actually beat the Patriots. Brock Osweiler is trending downward after two straight mediocre performances against mediocre defenses. Ben Roethlisberger timed his injuries well and his recoveries even better. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning is practicing with the scout team, which must be like Bruce Springsteen showing up for karaoke night.

The Steelers have more to offer than a healthy quarterback. They have proved they can win in a variety of ways this season. Last week, they won with defensive takeaways and ball control. They won several previous games with mad-bomber tactics. Power running got them through several wins without Roethlisberger; Le'Veon Bell was available for some of those games, and DeAngelo Williams has proved to be an excellent replacement. Special teams have even become a relative strength. The Steelers can win defensive duels, shootouts and anything in between.

The Broncos, on the other hand, are built to win 17-15, 16-10 or 19-13 games. They need many things to break right to beat a good opponent. The running game must click. The defense must dominate. Osweiler needs a whistle-clean pocket.

Last week's loss showed how a great Broncos defensive effort can be spoiled by the offense's inability to block one guy (Khalil Mack) or punch in a touchdown from the red zone. Take away one thing from their offense and manufacture a touchdown or two against their defense, and you can beat the Broncos. The only contingency plan they have is the Hall of Fame quarterback who is playing catch with the practice squad, and he will be inactive this week.

Expect the Steelers to again downshift into ball-control mode on offense, attack the line of scrimmage hard against the run and pass and challenge Osweiler to survive long enough to test their secondary. It's not the Steelers' favorite path to victory, but it is a path they have tread a few times this season.

Does that mean it's time to cancel the playoffs and schedule a Steelers-Patriots rematch?

Let's see whether Manning and Andy Dalton are healthy before answering that.

Prediction: Steelers 22, Broncos 16

Carolina Panthers (13-0) at New York Giants (6-7), Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

If the Panthers had drafted Odell Beckham Jr. last year, they would be undefeated right now.

Wait a minute...

It's fun to imagine Cam Newton throwing to Beckham, who was well off the board by the time the Panthers drafted in 2014. Newton and Beckham would have hooked up for 35 touchdowns by now; their end-zone celebrations would extend for hours and would be the topic of political debates.

The Panthers settled for Kelvin Benjamin, who was good last year but suffered an injury at the start of training camp. One can argue that Beckham would have gotten injured in Benjamin's place if their draft orders had been reversed, because time and fate are immutable or some sci-fi jazz. But c'mon, do you really think there is a cosmic force that prevents a serious injury by sending a player to the New York Giants?

With Benjamin, the Panthers would be considerably more unstoppable than they already are; add a receiver with near-Beckham-level big-play ability to the mix in place of, say, Philly Brown, and then let your imagination run wild. The current Panthers are not even the best Panthers possible, which is a testament to many factors, including the franchise-building capabilities of David Gettleman.

Gettleman spent 13 seasons as the Giants' pro personnel director before becoming the Panthers' general manager. He was part of a Giants front office that acquired the top quarterback prospect in a draft class and stuck with him through early-career ups and downs. That front office also displayed extraordinary patience with an unorthodox head coach during some frustrating years and avoided splashy free agency in favor of developing late-round draft picks and waiver acquisitions.

Sound familiar? Gettleman brought a lot of strands of 2007 and 2011 Giants DNA with him to the Panthers, mixed it with the talent already on the roster and began methodically building the team that is running away with the NFC.

We keep waiting for these Giants to turn into those 2007/2011 Giants. Monday night's win was the latest glimmer of hope. Maybe this is where the playoff run starts. Maybe they can knock off the undefeated Panthers the way they knocked off the undefeated Patriots in 2007 or the seemingly unbeatable Packers in 2011.

It's more likely, however, that those old Giants are gone and that part of what made them special is now in Charlotte.

The Giants are not going to be giant slayers this year. The Panthers are going to beat them at their own game.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Giants 24

Arizona Cardinals (11-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), Sunday, 8:30 p.m.

Associated Press

Bruce Arians shared a tale of his 2013 search for a head coaching job with the Philly press corps this week. He had interviews scheduled all around the NFL. But while he was meeting with the Bears, the Eagles, Browns and Chargers all cancelled on him. The Bears then chose not to hire him.

Oops, oops, oops and oops.

Everyone was seeking an outside-the-box genius that year. The Eagles and Browns all but stalked Chip Kelly. The Bears rescued Marc Trestman from Canadian exile. The Chargers plucked Mike McCoy from Denver based on his ability to shape-shift from a Tim Tebow option offense to something more Peyton Manning-worthy.

As you know, the Bears have already moved on from Trestman, as have the Browns from Kelly-consolation-prize Rob Chudzinski. McCoy is on his last legs in San Diego. Kelly's job appears safe at the moment, but perhaps the Eagles could have avoided this season of Thanksgiving massacres and awkward airplane confabs if in 2013 they had just sat down with the locally tied (born in New Jersey, coached at Temple) interim head coach of the Colts.

As for the "outside-the-box genius" bona fides, even Kelly cannot match Arians' daring. Kelly said the Cardinals have the NFL's highest blitz percentage; opponents have surrendered 16 interceptions and have just a 78.1 passer rating against them as a result. The Cardinals lead the NFL in 20-plus-yard passing plays with 59. They may be the most dynamic team in the NFL when it comes to explosive-play capability (the Steelers and Seahawks are also in the mix), and Arians and general manager Steve Keim built them out of low-cost veteran retreads and mid-round draft picks.

Arians and Kelly stood on equal footing for two years, so perhaps the gulf between them is not all that wide. Right now, the Cardinals are having the season Philadelphia wished for, and Arians looks like a missed opportunity for the Eagles. And the Bears. And the Browns. And the Chargers.

Prediction: Cardinals 33, Eagles 21

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7), Sunday, 1 p.m.

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

We're sorry for all of the naughty things we said about Matt Hasselbeck, Santa.

We didn't want him rushing back from an injury just to become even more severely injured. Again.

But it looks like that's what Chuck Pagano is asking him to do, according to Fox's Mike Chappell.

J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney also missed practice this week. Watt has a broken hand; he'll play, but injuries have slowed him down in recent weeks. Clowney's body is built to flash Hall of Fame potential on a once-or-twice-per-presidential-term basis.

Handicapping a game between two third-string quarterbacks is practically impossible, so let's wrap by thanking Pagano for his contribution to Bartlett's Familiar Quotations this week. "They can fire you, but they can't eat you," Pagano told reporters about his waning job security. It's a funny-yet-inspirational message from a man who has faced far worse than getting fired in recent years, a reminder to all of us who face job insecurity (pretty much everyone except undertakers, Supreme Court justices and Stephen Jones) that life and love go on after a professional reversal.

That said, it's an awfully strange thing to hear said by a coach whose team is still in first place.

Prediction: Colts 20, Texans 19

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-9), Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Gary Landers/Associated Press

How to think logically and critically about AJ McCarron:

• McCarron is a University of Alabama quarterback. That means he has a gaudy collegiate win-loss record (36-4), which is mostly a byproduct of being Nick Saban's on-field administrative assistant for an SEC team with near-AFC South talent. Calling McCarron "a proven winner" is a little like giving the kid who manages the Apple store in your local mall credit for the success of the iPhone.

• That said, McCarron is a better quarterback than other Saban-designated handoff machines like Greg McElroy, John Parker Wilson and Blake Sims. McCarron has better NFL attributes than Brodie Croyle, who went 0-10 for the Chiefs over four seasons in the late 2000s. So disparaging him as "just another Alabama tailback-facilitator" is also not really accurate, even though we just kind of did it.

• No Crimson Tide quarterback has won an NFL start since Jeff Rutledge in 1987. Then again, no Crimson Tide quarterback has led a team as talented as the 2015 Bengals against a team as terrible as the 2015 49ers in many decades.

• McCarron did not compare himself to Tom Brady after last week's loss to the Steelers. He pointed out that Brady had to replace Drew Bledsoe—a very good, established veteran—and made the most of the opportunity, leading an outstanding team to a Super Bowl. That's a little different than saying, "I just threw two ugly interceptions in a loss to the Steelers. I'M THE GOAT!!!" You have to read past the headline, folks.

• That said, invoking Bledsoe and Brady throws a little shade on Andy Dalton.

• Because McCarron is "a proven winner" whose college program has a massive national fanbase and Dalton "can't win the big one" and plays for a traditional small-market punching bag, the storyline for this quarterback situation is preordained. The first Bengals are Better off with AJ tweets and blog posts are scheduled to roll out at about 4:33 Eastern time, right after three 49ers defenders dive at Gio Bernard's feet to turn a screen pass into a 30-yard gain.

• If you are experiencing deja vu, Dalton was 36-3 in his final three seasons as a collegiate starter and entered the NFL draft as a second-tier talent whose calling cards were intelligence, toughness and status as "a proven winner."

We have come full circle: The Bengals have replaced Dalton with a younger Dalton whom a lot of people will like better than Dalton because he is new. This week will go smoothly. It's the trip to Denver in Week 16 that Bengals fans need to worry about.

Prediction: Bengals 22, 49ers 13

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Oakland Raiders (6-7), Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties in last week's 28-7 Packers win over the Cowboys, and the difference was noticeable. The Packers ran more. There was a greater effort to feed the ball to Randall Cobb. They were a little less predictable, though it helped they faced an opponent with no hope of cracking the 14-point barrier.

McCarthy could be a liability with the Packers facing Charles Woodson this week. As Tom Silverstein wrote in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Woodson spent his seven years in Green Bay watching McCarthy's offense operate in practice after practice. Woodson knew all the signals and tendencies and loved to jump in front of Aaron Rodgers' passes during drills. Woodson has been using his football IQ and 18 years of life lessons to create turnovers (five interceptions, four fumble recoveries) all year as the Gandalf of the Raiders defense. Now, he gets to face a foe he knows better than any other.

The Packers have more to worry about than Woodson. Khalil Mack has nine sacks in the last three weeks. His rapid development into the NFL's next J.J. Watt-level defender has been the result of: (A) actual development; (B) an improved supporting cast and coaching staff; and (C) an offense that keeps games close enough to force opponents into more passing situations, resulting in more sack opportunities.

Mack must be accounted for on every snap. Woodson must be accounted for every time McCarthy calls a play or Rodgers makes an adjustment similar to the ones the Packers used in 2012. The Raiders are still a draft class and a year of seasoning away from pulling back-to-back upsets against playoff teams, but they will show the Packers how far they have come.

Prediction: Packers 26, Raiders 24

New York Jets (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (4-9), Saturday, 8:25 p.m.

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

The Cowboys aren't making any excuses for Dez Bryant's miserable 27-catch season.

However, Jason Garrett listed the following reasons and explanations for Bryant's miserable 27-catch season this week, as quoted by Jean-Jacques Taylor of ESPN Dallas.

Limited offseason work: A contract dispute (Remember? It was what we used to fill airtime in the early summer) kept Bryant out of minicamps and OTAs. "The biggest thing with Dez is he hasn't laid the foundation that he typically does for a season," Garrett said.

Injuries: Bryant strained a hamstring at the start of camp, broke his foot in Week 1, of course, and has dealt with ankle and knee injuries since the last Eagles game. "I give him a great deal of credit for dealing with the different injuries he's had to get himself ready to play in games," Garrett said.

Timing with his quarterbacks: Take it away, Coach: "He doesn't have a long history with the quarterback who's playing, and he doesn't have a lot of reps with him."

Again, Garrett doesn't want to make this about excuses for Dez. "Again, I don't want to make this about excuses for Dez. It's his responsibility to get himself ready to play and play at a high level. No one knows that more than he does."

Yes, it is Bryant's responsibility to get himself ready to play. It's the coaching staff and organization's job to not let contract disputes with irreplaceable players turn into an offseason-defining mess, to make sure a player's workload is managed in training camp when he has missed OTAs and to acquire a quality backup quarterback who can deliver footballs within five yards of a superstar receiver.

No one was really blaming Bryant, Coach.

Jets fans may be angry that this preview is all about the silly Cowboys, even though the Jets are on a three-game winning streak and are in the thick of the wild-card hunt. For the last three years, the Jets have been the silly, fun-to-write-about December team. Getting overshadowed by a comically inept opponent isn't a snub for the Jets. It's a privilege.

Prediction: Jets 24, Cowboys 14

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-9), Sunday, 1 p.m.

Associated Press

The 8-5 Chiefs have a reasonable chance to catch the 10-3 Broncos and win the AFC West. They host the Browns and Raiders after they face the Ravens junior varsity (John Harbaugh flew the surrender flag after the Seahawks game—telling reporters, "In our mind, next year's season has already begun"—and has started emptying Jumal Rolle-types from the practice squad onto the active roster).

If the Chiefs win out, they will hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Broncos because of their divisional record. It would be 5-1; the Broncos cannot finish better than 4-2. And the Broncos have the Steelers and Bengals on the docket.

Injuries, not opponents (the next two, anyway), are the biggest obstacles between the Chiefs and an unexpected division title. Justin Houston was expected back early in the week, but he later visited earth's only orthopedic surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, about his hyperextended knee. Frank Zombo and Dee Ford each performed well in Pass-Rusher of the Week duties, but Houston is as important to the defense as Jamaal Charles was to the offense. Yes, we have been saying this for two months, but the Chiefs cannot keep this next-man-up routine forever.

Their lack of blue-chip manpower won't hurt them against Harbaugh's Irregulars, just as it didn't matter much against what's left of the Chargers. But what will happen when and if the Chiefs reach the playoffs, perhaps as hosts of a home game? That's what a team that started 1-5 calls "a happy problem."

Prediction: Chiefs 19, Ravens 13

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5), Sunday, 1 p.m.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Adrian Peterson is on pace to reach some interesting milestones this year, as Ben Goessling reported on ESPN.com. Peterson is just 254 yards from passing Fred Taylor for 16th place on the all-time rushing list, for example.

Doesn't it seem odd that Taylor is still ahead of Peterson? The all-time rushing list is a strange place. Peterson only recently passed Steven Jackson, who is a fine player but not someone you think of as guarding the gates of an all-time top 20. Frank Gore is still ahead of Peterson, though the Colts are doing everything they can to put a stop to that.

Peterson is also having one of the best seasons ever for a 30-year-old running back, though he is 609 rushing yards behind the all-time rushing leader for 30-year-old running backs. That honor belongs to Tiki Barber, who rushed for 1,860 yards for the 2005 Giants.

Barber was outstanding in 2005 and again in 2006, but the Giants underachieved and kept losing in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Their whole offense funneled through Barber, probably to a fault. Barber made disparaging remarks in the media about Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin soon after retirement, and it became obvious that Barber considered himself bigger than the team and, despite his production, may have been a less-than-positive force in the development of his team's young quarterback. Perhaps coincidentally, the Giants won the Super Bowl as soon as Barber left.

What? We weren't editorializing—just telling an old story about Barber! It has nothing to do with Peterson and the Vikings! Scout's honor!

In non-Peterson Vikings news (there is such a thing), defensive tackle Linval Joseph, safety Harrison Smith and linebacker Anthony Barr are still dealing with injuries after all missing the loss to the Cardinals. The Vikings did an outstanding job of compensating for the loss of three top defenders last week, and they should be able to handle the fading Bears. It's the rest of the schedule they have to worry about if the heart of their defense doesn't return.

Prediction: Vikings 22, Bears 17

Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5), Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

David Richard/Associated Press

Midweek at Browns headquarters in Berea, Ohio:

Mike Pettine: OK, guys, go get stretched for a walkthrough before we travel to Seattle. Hey, who are you?

Jimmy Clausen: I'm Jimmy Clausen. I will be your starting quarterback against the Seahawks.

Pettine: Don't be crazy, kid. We don't need…hold on.

(Checks TMZ.com)

(Checks local police blotter)

(Checks South-by-SouthYesss.com, Austin's hottest nightlife website)

Pettine: We don't need you.

(Checks TMZ.com again just to be sure)

Pettine: Johnny Manziel is just fine.

Clausen: Are you sure? Last time I saw him he was trying to plug his face into a USB port.

Pettine: Oh, the tablet Vine. Yeah, Johnny threw an interception and reacted poorly. But he played well against the 49ers. He's a heck of a play-action roll-out passer, you know. And when he scrambles, he always has his eyes downfield.

Clausen: The Seahawks are a little tougher than the 49ers. I should know. I've faced them twice this year, for two different teams!

Pettine: Say, that might be valuable experience. How did you do?

Clausen: My teams lost by a combined score of 61-6.

(Refreshes TMZ.com again)

Pettine: Go away.

Clausen: C'mon, Coach!

Pettine: Look, this is a great opportunity to evaluate Johnny. It's a hostile environment. The Seahawks defense will provide a real test. Despite some of the clickbait I provided this week, I think Russell Wilson is exactly what Johnny should aspire to become, on and off the field. I'd love a win, but I want to see how Johnny handles this challenge. Now, go bother someone else.

Clausen: Sigh. What do I do now? Getting hammered by the Seahawks is my sole purpose in life. I just have to get one more chance this season. (Notre Dame Fight Song cellphone ringtone). Hello?

Jerry Jones: Hey, Jimmy! We are still mathematically alive for the playoffs. We may need someone to get us through a first-round Wild Card Game.

Clausen: I'm the perfect man for the job.

Prediction: Seahawks 37, Browns 17

Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2), Sunday, 1 p.m.

George Bridges/Associated Press

The five most likely scenarios for the Titans defeating the Patriots, in descending order of likelihood:

• Every Patriots skill-position player gets injured. You may interpret this to mean "a bunch of injuries," but it must be taken literally for the Titans to have a chance: Every Patriots skill position player must get injured. Matthew Slater? Injured. Joey Iosefa, the running back from Hawaii on the practice squad? Injured. Tom Brady is left attempting passes to Sealver Siliga. Likelihood it will happen: 0.88 percent. Even if it does happen, the Titans could lose because they abandon the run too quickly.

• A combination of blocked punts, punt return touchdowns and 99-yard pick-six returns. Likelihood it will happen: 0.23 percent. Lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice.

• Bill Belichick gets wind of the Titans' interest in Josh McDaniels as a head coaching candidate. Not wishing to lose McDaniels, Belichick flushes the game plan down the toilet. And destroys McDaniels' cellphone. No Patriots story is complete without a bathroom and a destroyed cellphone. Likelihood it will happen: 0.18 percent. No one is really interested in McDaniels as a head coaching candidate.

• New England turns into a post-apocalyptic wasteland late in the week; Gillette Stadium becomes a shanty town for survivors. Likelihood it will happen: 0.05 percent. (This bullet point sponsored by Fallout 4).

• The Titans assemble a smart game plan that makes good use of Marcus Mariota's passing and rushing ability, generates both a running game and a pass rush and puts them in position to capitalize on Patriots injuries on both sides of the ball. Likelihood it will happen: 0.0005 percent. This is not Jaguars week, and these are not the Jaguars they are facing.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 10

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7), Sunday, 1 p.m.

David Banks/Getty Images

The Redskins are generally receiving positive press right now, and the Bills negative press, despite posting identical records. That will happen when one team plays in a terrible division and is coming off a 4-12 season, while the other was expected to contend in a division with a perennial powerhouse.

But the Bills and Redskins aren't really similar teams in different circumstances. The Redskins are outperforming the Bills when it comes to smart situational football:

• The Redskins rank eighth in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 42.4 percent. The Bills rank 22nd at 36.7 percent.

• The Redskins rank fifth in the NFL at scoring touchdowns in goal-to-go situations at 77.3 percent. The Bills rank 14th at 71.4 percent.

• The Bills lead the NFL in penalty yardage with 1,086 yards allowed. (They rank second to the Buccaneers in total penalties.) The Redskins rank 20th in the NFL in penalty yardage with 731 yards.

Inconsistent-at-best situational play costs the Bills a few first downs per week and about an extra touchdown per month. Penalties alone would have changed the outcome of last week's Eagles game. Third-down and red-zone woes cost them the Jaguars and Giants games. Heck, the second Patriots game was within reach of a team that could sustain drives, control the clock and manage field position slightly more effectively.

Meanwhile, great third-down and red-zone play represented the Redskins' margin of victory against the Bears. Four goal-line touchdowns and just four penalties helped the Redskins come back against the Buccaneers, who committed 16 penalties and settled for a couple of short field goals in their losing effort.

The Redskins are overachieving, while the Bills are underachieving. That's not an illusion caused by comparisons to the Patriots or the sad sacks of the NFC East. It's a product of fundamentally sound play and (yes) good coaching.

On paper, the Bills should wallop the Redskins. The talent differential on both sides of the ball is too huge to overlook. But don't be surprised if the Redskins give the Bills just the nudge they need to help them beat themselves.

Prediction: Bills 23, Redskins 22

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8), Sunday, 1 p.m.

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

The Falcons and Seahawks are coached by former Pete Carroll assistants Dan Quinn and Gus Bradley. We know the Falcons are falling apart after an amazing start and the Jaguars are finally looking competitive after three years of rebuilding. But which of the Seahawks Triple-A affiliates has become most Seahawks-like? Let's take it point by point:

Russell Wilson surrogate: Blake Bortles makes four or five plays per game where he looks like a king-sized Russell Wilson. And about 20 plays where he looks like it's his first time on the football field. And at least one play where it looks like he sideswiped his center's pickup truck. Matt Ryan beat Wilson in a thrilling playoff game once. Remember that? Were we driving horse-and-buggies back then? More Seahawks-like: Jaguars.

Legion of Boom surrogates: The Jaguars have a few quality defensive backs, like Davon House and Johnathan Cyprien. They also face a rogues-and-rookies gallery of AFC South quarterbacks and gave up 31 points to the EJ Manuel-led Bills early in the season, so no one is in a hurry to hand out "next Richard Sherman" labels. The Falcons have one cornerback who could play for the Legion (Desmond Trufant, whose older brother was part of the Legion before it was a Legion) and seven defensive backs who could not crack the Seahawks' 90-man offseason roster. More Seahawks-like: Tie for neither.

Marshawn Lynch surrogate: The Jaguars have T.J. Yeldon, a promising all-purpose rookie you never hear about because Jacksonville is where storylines go to die. The Falcons have Devonta Freeman, a quality all-purpose second-year back you couldn't avoid hearing about this season because your brother-in-law drafted him in fantasy football and spent six weeks bragging and then the last eight weeks complaining. More Seahawks-like: Jaguars.

Unwarranted coaching positivity: Bradley has been surviving on the power of positive thinking for so long that a 5-8 record must make him feel like a flower child at Woodstock. Quinn, who entered the season with the social networking presence of the world's coolest uncle, hasn't tweeted since December 1, when he asked followers to vote for The Rock for the People's Choice Awards. There's a danger that the Falcons can no longer smell what Quinn is cooking. More Seahawks-like: Jaguars.

That's a nearly clean sweep: The Jaguars are more Seahawks-like. They have a two-year head start, of course. The next step will be to get from "Seahawks-like" to "good." This is a prime opportunity to start taking that step.

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Falcons 24

Miami Dolphins (5-8) at San Diego Chargers (3-10), Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Let's say you are a red-hot head coaching candidate named "Sean M." The Dolphins and Chargers each interview you during your team's first-round playoff bye. Which job is more appealing? Let's compare:

Quarterback: Philip Rivers peaked in 2009. And again in 2013. He's under contract until 2019, and he probably outranks you on the franchise decision flowchart. Ryan Tannehill is known by the trail of fired offensive coaches in his wake. He's under contract until 2020, six more fired offensive coaches down the road. Advantage: Dolphins. Tannehill still has room to improve, and if you really are "Sean M.," you're the one who will be firing those offensive coaches.

Thorny problem: The Chargers drafted Melvin Gordon and were disappointed to learn he was Trent Richardson's long-lost twin. The Dolphins signed Ndamukong Suh and were disappointed to get a mouthy, hot-and-cold performer who isn't always 100 percent with the program. They obviously didn't read the label. Advantage: Dolphins. Suh is due for a chip-on-the-shoulder season.

Mess left by former coaching staff: Mike McCoy and John Pagano's old playbooks will have to be thrown away. Luckily, a whole team's worth can fit in one lawn-'n'-leaf bag. Dan Campbell is the kind of guy who booby-traps the premises on his way out. Advantage: Chargers.

General manager: Tom Telesco is under contract with the Chargers until 2019; the new Chargers head coach is bound to spend his early career waiting for 2019 to come. The Dolphins will go through four sets of general managers in that span, with their tenures overlapping. Advantage: Push.

Location: Don't get fooled by that interview in San Diego, pal. What's scarier: a Los Angeleno or a Florida Man? Before you answer, check out the tax rates for California and Florida. Having your car stolen by a dude who wants to crash into the side of a jail so he can visit his friends is kinda worth it when you factor in the taxes. Advantage: Dolphins.

The verdict comes down to which team shows more future promise in the final three weeks. The Dolphins are playing hard down the stretch. The Chargers have scored just three points in three of their last four games. Every new head coach must start from scratch, but the Dolphins have a few ingredients in the refrigerator and haven't ripped out all of the appliances.

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Chargers 16

Detroit Lions (4-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8), Monday, 8:30 p.m.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

An inside look at how the Lions approach getting the ball to Calvin Johnson—and how other teams would approach getting the ball to Calvin Johnson:

Coverage: Johnson matched up one-on-one against Brandon Browner.

Other teams think: Throw the ball up for grabs! Even if Johnson doesn't bring it down, Browner will probably piggyback unsportsmanlike contact on top of pass interference, generating more yardage than Johnson would gain by catching the ball.

The Lions think: That looks risky. How about a screen to Golden Tate?

Coverage: Two-deep zone, with Jairus Byrd in deep coverage to Johnson's side.

Other teams think: Post-corner double-move route. Johnson can outrun any safety in the league to the corner of the end zone and make a fingertip catch.

The Lions think: Uh-oh, Byrd led the NFL in interceptions in, like, 1997 or something. Checkdown to Theo Riddick in the middle of the field.

Coverage: The Saints have trouble getting the play in from the sidelines. Defenders are looking at Dennis Allen on the sideline shrugging their shoulders. Kenny Vaccaro is actually calling Rob Ryan on his cellphone. Also, there are only nine Saints on the field.

Other teams think: Quick-snap the ball and just fling it to Johnson, the way the Jets did when the Titans got mixed up and left Brandon Marshall uncovered!

The Lions think: We need to be unpredictable. This might be a good time to get T.J. Jones involved.

Yeah, we're having a lot of laughs at Jim Bob Cooter's (and Dennis Allen's) expense. But it would be worse if Joe Lombardi were still coordinating the Lions plays and Ryan were trying to stop him.

Fan in the stands: "Johnson is going to clear out deep, with Tate running an in-route."

Guy on Twitter: "Johnson is going to clear out deep, with Tate running an in-route."

Richard Sherman, watching from home: "Johnson is going to clear out deep, with Tate running an in-route."

Lombardi: "Let's have Johnson clear out deep while Tate runs an in-route."

Ryan: "I smell a running play."

Prediction: Saints 26, Lions 17