NFL Picks and Predictions Week 3: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Week 1 went well for the public, but Week 2 featured a lot of upsets in the non-early games, which really set gamblers back. After the morning games went final, my picks were 5-5, including a 3-1 record for the locks of the week. Not great—but not horrible by any stretch.

Then disaster hit. The Raiders, Jaguars, Cowboys, and Jets all pulled upsets in five of the remaining six games. The only non-upset? The Seahawks lost to the Packers by multiple scores. The line I took? Seattle as 3.5-point dogs.

Overall, we went 5-10, but our locks of the week managed to slow down the damage at a 3-3 record. Plenty of time has been spent trying to correct those mistakes.

Some teams are clearly not invincible. Some teams have strengths where weaknesses were once assumed, such as the Redskins offensive line. Some weaknesses are even bigger than we had previously imagined, such as the Lions defense.

With two weeks under our belt, we should be able to come together with some better decisions. Just please don't knock on my door with a baseball bat asking about what went wrong last Sunday.

All picks ATS: 13-17 (.433)

Locks of the Week ATS: 6-5 (.546)

Thursday Night Football: Washington @ New York Giants

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Result: New York Giants 31, Washington Redskins 21

This game told us a lot about both teams. The Washington Redskins looked like one of the more improved teams in recent weeks, but with less time to prepare, pure talent gets put to the test more often than not.

The Washington offensive line has been coached up well by Bill Callahan, even shutting down St. Louis' defensive line, which is the best in the league. Against the Giants, though, their leading rusher went for 38 yards. Putting the game on Kirk Cousins is a ready-made way to fail, as has been shown over and over. The franchise just can't quit him, though. He's their bad habit.

The Giants won this one pretty handily. The Redskins nearly pulled a backdoor cover twice, scoring with 3:40 left in the fourth quarter and again with 3:08 left, both of which narrowed down the score to an 11-point game. If they would have just been able to get in the end zone one more time, with a two-point conversion being the difference between making it a field-goal game, those +3.5 road-dog tickets for Washington could have been taken to cash in.

Now they're going to be disposed of, just like Washington's former first-round pick quarterback. I still think the Redskins are more talented than the public is giving them credit for, but their depth has been decimated by the Robert Griffin trade, and on a short week, it was exposed for the world to see.

Cover: New York Giants

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Opening Line: Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-1.5)
Current Line: Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

When Derek Carr was in for the Oakland Raiders in Week 1, he completed 58.3 percent of his passes, averaged 5.08 yards per pass and had a QBR of 34.4. Those respective marks, against the Cincinnati Bengals, would rank him 27th, 32nd and 30th in the league if he continued to perform at that level.

Luckily, he was able to play the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 despite missing practice time and moved those numbers up to 65.2, 7.63 and 85.6, which would register as the 17th, 15th and fourth slots in the NFL. This is an indictment for the pass defense of the Ravens.

Despite the Bengals essentially shutting Carr down in the opener, he's now sixth in the NFL in QBR after chipping away at the porous Baltimore secondary. Ahead of him? Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Andy Dalton. Three have Super Bowl rings, Palmer has won 88 percent of his starts in his last 17 games and the Ravens, who made a below-average player look like a Pro Bowler in Week 2, are set to go toe-to-toe with the last one this time around.

People will make excuses for Baltimore, but it comes down to the fact they can't imagine the Ravens going 0-3. Here are the facts: Starting in 2010, there have been 27 teams who began their seasons 0-2, throwing out the four matchups of 0-2 teams facing each other. Of those 27 teams, only 10 of them won their third game.

While home and away splits are 42.86 percent and 30.77 percent in favor of home 0-2 squads over away 0-2 franchises, 0-2 teams in the previous five seasons are just 3-6 when facing a divisional opponent in their third game. It's 100 percent possible the Ravens can fall, and it's time to wrap your head around that reality.

Outside of quarterback, the Bengals might be the best team in football. They have an offensive line so deep their second-round rookie backup offensive tackle, who might be the fourth-best tackle on the line when everyone is healthy, caught a 31-yard pass last time out. They have a two-headed backfield in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, who have both gone over 100 yards in just two weeks. At receiver, they have stud A.J. Green, and at tight end they have an emerging star in Tyler Eifert, a one-time first-round pick who missed last season through injury.

This is the first year in a long time when I've looked at Baltimore's defense and wondered, "what's their identity?"

Offensively, they can't get it going, but the defense is something you used to always be able to count on. Elvis Dumervil is a solid pass-rusher, but he's a specialist who is now forced to start after Baltimore lost Pernell McPhee in free agency and Terrell Suggs to injury. This might be the start of a nightmare season for the Ravens.

A 2.5-point line in favor of the Ravens means the Bengals would only be favored by a half point on a neutral field. That's insane. Don't fall into the fallacy that a team with a decent history can't go 0-3.

The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Jacksonville @ New England

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Opening Line: Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-14)
Current Line: Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-13.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a September win, their first since they beat the Indianapolis Colts in 2012. At the same time, the New England Patriots, coming off a Super Bowl victory, look like the best team in the sport.

Since the Indianapolis Colts matchup in the AFC Championship Game, quarterback Tom Brady has completed 100 of 141 passes for 1,082 yards and 11 touchdowns and has only thrown two interceptions, both against Seattle in the world championship. In those games, he's faced the Seahawks, the previous Super Bowl champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat the San Francisco 49ers by the score of 43-18 in Week 2, and the Buffalo Bills, who under Rex Ryan won against the Colts in a 27-14 effort in Week 1.

Against three quality opponents, Brady has averaged 47 passes per game and has a completion percentage of over 70 percent. Even with returning running back LeGarrette Blount, the Patriots still chose to either use the short passing game to supplement their ground attack or they just threw to a running back last time out.

Dion Lewis, who has started both weeks as the featured tailback, has 109 yards rushing and 149 receiving. Brady is on fire, the Patriots are motivated to destroy everyone and head coach Bill Belichick seems more than willing to allow it.

If Brady performs like he has in the last three games over a 16-game seasons, he'll throw for 5,770 yards and 58 touchdowns, shattering records.

Sure, Jacksonville is riding off the high of a 1-1 record, meaning they sit tied at the top of the AFC South, but Blake Bortles against the super staff of New England might be a struggle. You must remember, Bortles has thrown seven interceptions in just 15 starts.

The weather is something to monitor too. Jacksonville summers are different to those in Massachusetts. Jacksonville tends to struggle in the northeast for that reason. When they have played away games against teams north of Maryland, excluding the in-land Pittsburgh Steelers, they are 0-5 since 2011. They lost three times to teams of that nature last season, including a 41-10 beating by the Washington Redskins, who finished 4-12.

Bortles' only game in the northeast was against the Baltimore Ravens, when he completed 21 of 37 passes for 210 yards, just a 5.7 yards-per-pass average, which would only rank behind three starters this season. He was also sacked eight times against the Ravens, thew an interception and finished with a QBR of 13.5.

In those five losses since the 2011 season began, they've been outscored 161-60—that's an average of roughly 32-12. You don't make money going against the Patriots.

The Pick: New England Patriots (-13.5)

Pittsburgh @ St. Louis

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Opening Line: Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+1.5)
Current Line: Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+1)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are red hot. The St. Louis Rams just lost to a team that was 4-12 last season. It's time to sell high and buy low. Had this game happened in Week 2, the Rams would probably be favorites by two or three points.

Let's recap their seasons to date:

• The Pittsburgh Steelers played in the season opener against the New England Patriots and looked competitive but not elite. Then, after an extended rest, they played at home against the San Francisco 49ers, a West Coast team heading east for a morning game after playing the late Monday Night Football game. The 49ers beat the Minnesota Vikings in an excruciating game, but they were set up to fail against Pittsburgh.
• The St. Louis Rams beat the Seahawks at home, the team the Patriots defeated to win a ring. Nick Foles looked like he was a legit quarterback, and the Rams defensive line was unstoppable. In Week 2, the Rams traveled outside of the dome to play the Washington Redskins, who quietly went from having a horrible offensive line to one that now looks like a top-five unit in the league.

I'll just say this: The Redskins caught the Rams off guard with their offensive line. In back-to-back weeks, they have "shut down" the Rams, who have Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn, Chris Long, Michael Brockers and Nick Fairley, all top-15 picks, and the Miami Dolphins, who have Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh and Olivier Vernon. It would be hard to find better defensive linemen to face, and Washington has shocked the world with the strength of the team on that line.

If that Rams and Redskins game is played again, it would go much differently. With that being said, Donald still made a huge impact, and he just might be in the running with J.J. Watt for the title of best defensive lineman in the league.

Pittsburgh is getting Le'Veon Bell back, but Ben Roethlisberger is currently averaging 11 yards per pass attempt. That number will more than likely drop four or five yards by the end of the season, even with some weapons coming back.

It doesn't seem like the Rams are going to rush running back Todd Gurley into the lineup, but there's an outside shot he gets in the game. St. Louis is just different at home, where they have a nearly 20 percentage point win increase during the Jeff Fisher era.

Vegas makes money off of casual fans all the time. If fans zig and Vegas zags, you need to zag too. Everyone is on the Steelers except Vegas. Who would you rather trust? This line is just too fishy to stumble into by accident. If it sounds too good to be true, it is.

The Pick: St. Louis Rams (+1.5)

Oakland @ Cleveland

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Opening Line: Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-4.5)
Current Line: Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

This line feels off. Johnny Manziel won't be starting for the Browns this time out, as Josh McCown has been cleared. The offense is more consistent with McCown at quarterback, but regression to the mean isn't going to be how this Cleveland offense is going to win games.

Think about it this way: The Browns won in Week 2 by pressuring rookie Marcus Mariota over and over. They wouldn't let him pick them apart like Lovie Smith's Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in Week 1. The result? The quarterback, who had to learn what "NFL open" was on the fly, was sacked seven times and fumbled three times.

That's not going to happen against Derek Carr of the Raiders, who was quietly one of the more productive passers in the NFL. The entire Oakland offense is built around the short passing game, so they churn slowly as they attack your cornerbacks underneath. Unlike most non-power offenses, though, they don't stall in the red zone.

Last season, Carr led the NFL in touchdowns 10 yards within the end zone without an interception with 16. In comparison, Aaron Rodgers threw 20 touchdowns with a single interception in 2014.

The winning score for the Raiders in Week 2? A 12-yard pass from Carr with less than 30 seconds left on the clock. The Fresno State product was made for that situation. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper look like a legit receiving duo, something Oakland needed badly last season.

I just don't get it. Why were the Browns favored by more than a field goal here when their one hope was a volatile sophomore passer who is now heading back to the bench?

The Pick: Oakland Raiders (+4.5)

New Orleans @ Carolina

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening Line: New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Current Line: New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

For my money, the New Orleans Saints have the worst defense in football right now. Their secondary is well below average. On the defensive line, it's a stars-and-scrubs approach, with Cameron Jordan and A. N. Other next to him. At linebacker, two of their three starters are rookies.

In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn't get anything going against the Tennessee Titans, who were 2-14 in 2014. The Titans won by a score of 42-14 as away underdogs. Still, that same Buccaneers squad was enough to hold the Saints down on their own turf in a seven-point win.

As such, New Orleans can't play defense, but their offense is also concerning. They've yet to get the running game going, and there's no stretch target for Drew Brees to hit. Against the Arizona Cardinals, many expected a shootout. Instead, they scored 19 points. Against the Buccaneers, the team that finished with the worst record in football last year, in large part due to their poor defense, the Saints again scored just 19 points.

If you play Carolina at home, your offense isn't performing in mud—your offense is performing in cement. If both linebacker Luke Kuechly and defensive tackle Star Lotulelei are ready to go on Sunday, the Saints might only score single-digit numbers for the first time since December 2013.

This game is going to be a slow grind, with the Panthers choosing to run the ball rather than throwing it to unproven receivers. This is all assuming that Brees will play. He's been dealing with a shoulder issue, but he hasn't been ruled out for Sunday's game. If Brees can't lead New Orleans in the huddle, this will be a blood bath.

Current Line: Carolina Panthers (-3)

Line was up assuming Drew Brees was playing.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

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Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (+5)
Current Line: Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (+3)

The Indianapolis Colts need their first win of the season soon if they're going to go on a playoff run, but their issues are extended. They invested a lot in their receivers, who have yet to flash their alleged value. Andre Johnson looked like a huge pickup from the Houston Texans, but never forget that free agents are free agents for one reason: The team most intimate with their talent thought they were no longer worth the asking price.

With all of those assets centralized in veteran free agents such as Frank Gore, a 32-year-old running back, Johnson, a 34-year-old receiver, Trent Cole, a 32-year-old pass-rusher, and Todd Herremans, a 32-year-old guard, the Colts quickly have become the best AARP team in the world but also one of the bottom franchises in the NFL.

The Colts can't run the ball. Their defense is average at best. As long as Andrew Luck keeps turning it over, Indianapolis is in big trouble. For the year, the Colts are negative seven in turnover margin. No other team is lower than negative two. They've turned over the ball a league-high eight times and have forced a league-low single turnover defensively.

They are now slated to go toe-to-toe with the Tennessee Titans, who run an option-based offense, on a short week. This is after getting beat up physically by the New York Jets and losing to the Buffalo Bills, both by two scores. Against the Bills, the Colts proved they didn't have the discipline to bottle up a mobile quarterback. Why would Marcus Mariota be a downgrade from Tyrod Taylor?

This line is just too fishy. I don't know a soul who is taking Tennessee, which means it's time to make the move. Vegas knows more than the public, and they've proved it over and over. This line opened up with the Colts as five-point favorites, and after days of the public backing Indianapolis, it's dropped to the Titans as three-point dogs.

In a normal situation, the line would have risen. Vegas is either aligning itself to back Tennessee or thinks sharps are going to. Either way, that's the green light for you to make the pick.

The Pick: Tennessee Titans (+5)

Atlanta @ Dallas

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Opening Line: Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (PK)
Current Line: Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (+2)

No Tony Romo. No Dez Bryant. No run game. Possibly no Jason Witten.

The Dallas Cowboys even started tight end Gavin Escobar last time out because they weren't confident in their receivers. If Witten is gone, Escobar is their full-time guy, and they will be forced to play those receivers they didn't want to throw out early against the Philadelphia Eagles.

While the Cowboys are well coached on the defensive side of the ball, I wouldn't say there's a bunch of talent there outside of linebacker Sean Lee and 3-technique defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford. Outside of an offensive line, where are they good? They're basically the Cleveland Browns.

OK, Brandon Weeden went seven of seven, but if you take one long 42-yard reception out of the equation, he was throwing for five yards per completion. That's below his career average, and his career hasn't even been one of note.

The Atlanta Falcons look competitive, and competitive should be able to put away an offense featuring Weeden, Joseph Randle, Devin Street, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Escobar at the skill positions. Julio Jones is the best receiver in football, and the Cowboys have no answer as to how to cover him on paper. Jones very well might score more points than Dallas does as a team.

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons (PK)

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-4)
Current Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-6.5)

In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were closed up by Dick LeBeau's Tennessee Titans. In Week 2, they put up 26 points on the worst defense in the league in the Saints.

I'm leaning that the Houston defense, with J.J. Watt, Vince Wilfork, Brian Cushing, Jadeveon Clowney and a decent defensive backfield, is a long way from the New Orleans defense the Buccaneers just faced. Honestly, it's a struggle to even see how the Buccaneers will block Watt, Wilfork and Clowney at the line of scrimmage without each of them seeing double-teams. If they don't see double-teams, they should be in the backfield more times than not. Watt has proved he'll do that even if you send an extra man his way.

This head-to-head feels like "trap game" is written all over it for the public. The Buccaneers let the public down last season, and they had high hopes heading into 2015, but a misstep Week 1 brought those dreams crashing down until they beat the Saints, a recent playoff team, at the Superdome, where they are usually unbeatable.

The problem is many people think this the New Orleans team of past, not the one with a washed up Drew Brees playing quarterback, the same team that is one of only three squads to lose by eight or more points in each of the first two weeks. I'm not overly impressed the Buccaneers beat a bottom-five team in the NFL.

Heading into Week 2, would you have taken Tampa Bay heading into Houston in a one-score game? You figure the Texans are about an average team in the NFL but need to get something going offensively. The Buccaneers are probably three or four points under the average NFL team on a neutral field. Then when you consider that Houston is at home, which is another three-point advantage. The 6.5-point line is right on the money.

This bet comes down to this: Will Tampa Bay be able to get into the end zone this week? The Buccaneers were able to rip long plays against a Saints defense with plenty of holes in it but had to settle for four field goals on Sunday. That's 16 points left on the board.

You aren't getting those big plays against the Texans, who haven't allowed a run over 20 yards all season and are only allowing a completion percentage of 57.1 percent, the sixth-best in the league. If you can't score in the red zone, you're finished, and without a quality offensive line, playing against Watt, Wilfork and Clowney in tight spaces leads to trouble.

Opening Line: Houston Texans (-4)

Philadelphia @ New York Jets

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Current Line: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (-2.5)

It's time for Chip Kelly to use a switch up. According to Tim McManus of Philadelphia Magazine, Eagles receiver Josh Huff stated that the Dallas Cowboys knew their play calls before the snap. How could this happen? Well, Chris B. Brown, known best as @SmartFootball on Twitter, also noted during the game that Philadelphia's formations gave away what they were doing.

The bad news is the Eagles got their heads caved in against Dallas. The good news is they can adjust, and adjusting how someone lines up is much easier than teaching new concepts. High school offenses, for example, can switch a formation with two numbers in a play call.

The New York Jets are also coming off a short week after beating the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. They have seen tremendous success in man coverage with lots of blitzes, but that is exactly what Philadelphia wants to see. Their entire scheme is built to hope for man-to-man football, and New York plays it voluntarily.

An early blitz read will also get the ball out of Sam Bradford's hands quicker, making Philadelphia's horrendous offensive line a virtual non-factor. That's a positive too.

There's too much overreaction on both sides of this game. Kelly was getting his mind read after the first half of the game in the Georgia Dome. It's time for a change. The Jets have beaten the Browns and Colts, who could both finish with 10 losses this season. If the Eagles are dogs, give me the dogs. This line would have been an insane fantasy two weeks ago.

The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

San Diego @ Minnesota

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Opening Line: San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2)
Current Line: San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

The San Diego Chargers and Minnesota Vikings have already played a mutual opponent: The Detroit Lions.

The Lions are the worst in the league in defensive completion percentage after both Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater tore their coverages up underneath. In their games not against Detroit? The Chargers posted a 21-of-27 effort in the air against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have looked like a top-five team thus far. The Vikings were completely shut down offensively against the San Francisco 49ers, who lost by 25 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers the following week.

I just have a lot more faith in the consistency of the Chargers and Rivers. Mike McCoy is quietly one of the better coaches in the league, and San Diego always starts hot. From 2011 to 2014, the team lost only five of 16 games in September. This is enough of a trend for me to ride out on.

The Pick: San Diego Chargers (+2.5)

San Francisco @ Arizona

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6)
Current Line: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals are red hot right now. They aren't the sexiest team, and they've been beating up on lesser squads such as the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears, but the streak Carson Palmer has been on stretches for almost two full years now. Here's what I wrote about Palmer in Week 2's guide when I took Arizona as 1.5-point favorites on the road:

"

Between 2014, when he missed time due to another knee injury, and Week 1 of 2015, he's made seven starts, which ended in seven wins for the Cardinals with a combined stat line of 160-of-256 in the air for 1,933 yards, 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Extending that number to his last 16 games, dating back to Week 8 of 2013—when he really started to pick up Arians' offense—he's 361-of-562 for 4,466 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

In that span, Arizona is 14-2.

In the six road games during that 16-game stretch, the Cardinals have won by 13, 11 twice, seven and three and have lost by three points just once. So if this were the spread in those games, they'd have gone 5-1. I like the chances of Arizona covering here and becoming Super Bowl contenders in the mind of the media this week.

"

He's now up to a 15-2 record, and head coach Bruce Arians really took it to the Chicago Bears, who looked over him, instead signing Marc Trestman to lead the team in 2013. Trestman is now the offensive coordinator for the downward spiraling Baltimore Ravens while Arians might just be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.

It's hard to win three games in a row in the NFL, but it doesn't look like this team is taking any breaks. As they learned last year, when they started 9-1 and finished 11-5 with a single playoff loss to show for the season, this game can switch up on a franchise quickly. According to Mike Jurecki of Fox Sports 910 in Phoenix, Arians opened up Wednesday's team meeting by saying, "You ain't [expletive]."

It's obvious. The Cardinals are good, and their coach doesn't want to step off the pedal for one second. Arizona is currently in first place in offensive points per game in the league, ahead of the Patriots and Steelers, who played each other in the first week of the season.

Last week, the Steelers hung 43 on a San Francisco squad that was coming off a short week following a Monday night victory. I don't think the 49ers will lose by 25 points again, but as long as this spread is under a touchdown, I'm on the Cardinals here. They're a machine that can't be stopped without injury.

The Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-6)

Buffalo @ Miami

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Current Line: Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills shocked the world by beating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. The Colts then lost to the New York Jets and just might make it three defeats in a row to start 2015 when they face the Titans in Nashville this time around.

In Week 2, the New England Patriots were up 37-13 on the road against the Bills heading into the fourth quarter before they narrowed the score down to 40-32 in a meaningless final period. We are giving the Bills a lot of credit right now. Too much.

The Jets have played two teams this season, the Colts and Cleveland Browns. New York played both about equally. If the Browns and Colts are similar-level football teams, then why are we treating the Bills like they beat some Super Bowl contender in Week 1? If the Bills had beaten Cleveland at home and the Patriots score stayed double digits, like the game really felt, would Buffalo be getting this much respect heading into Miami?

I understand the Dolphins haven't looked great, but the Bills' job defensively is to get after the quarterback. Miami's offense is designed to get the ball out of Ryan Tannehill's hand as quickly as possible. Tom Brady threw the ball nearly 60 times against Buffalo, and I believe the Dolphins will follow the same blueprint.

Not a lot of people are going to give the Dolphins a chance here, but they match up well offensively, and if they can bottle Tyrod Taylor up, it's a wrap for Buffalo. Taylor was sacked eight times against the Patriots and had two fumbles and three interceptions. Facing a mobile quarterback is tricky when he's fresh, but once film gets out on how to stop him, it could get nasty for the passer. If Taylor is "figured out" by the Miami staff and defensive line, the team might need to make a move in the near future.

The one place I would say Buffalo has the advantage is the run game if they can exploit the Dolphins' weak linebacker unit, but the Patriots played almost exclusively in nickel last time out, not even bothering to worry about the Bills' ground game other than from their scrambler.

Weather just might be a factor too. The Bills have played back-to-back fixtures in northern New York, and Miami has the most unique weather in the United States. Give me the Phins since no one else is taking them.

The Pick: Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Chicago @ Seattle

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Opening Line: Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (-14)
Current Line: Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)

I don't care if the Seattle Seahawks are getting Kam Chancellor back. I don't care that Jay Cutler, who people have been crucifying for years, isn't playing in this game. I don't care that it's Seattle's first game at home this season.

The 14.5-point line is too large for a team that is 0-2. I'll take the Seahawks, but if you're going to spot the Bears that high of a number, I'll ride for the cover.

The Pick: Chicago Bears (+14.5)

Sunday Night Football: Denver @ Detroit

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Opening Line: Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)
Current Line: Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions (+2.5)

I know people are low on the Broncos right now and also think the Lions can't start 0-3 after making the playoffs last season, but 0-2 squads facing non-0-2 teams in Week 3 since 2010 are 10-17. Too many times, bettors have been hung up on that logical fallacy.

The best bettors take emotion out of lines and find an edge. You will see a bunch of statistics on how teams who start 0-3 are virtual locks to miss the playoffs. When you juxtapose that to last year's playoff team, you won't be able to wrap your mind around it, but you can't change what has already happened in Week 1 and Week 2.

If a loss here means the Lions are cooked for the season, then so be it. Your job is to cap one game. As Ivan Drago said, "If he dies, he dies."

Here are the facts:

• The Detroit Lions messed up a 21-3 lead against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1 because of their conservative defense and lack of run game. Philip Rivers was able to post a 34-of-41 mark for 403 yards, a 103.6 passer rating and 73.1 QBR despite the fact he threw two interceptions. The Chargers won 33-28 as the Lions couldn't stop bleeding in short coverage.
• The Lions have ran for 107 yards in two weeks.
• The Broncos have struggled recently but are coming off a long break, as they played on Thursday night during Week 2. We've all seen the decline of Peyton Manning, but you don't think the extended time to get the transition into a new offense matters? The rest can't hurt, either.

From there, we can only speculate. In Manning's first season in Denver, he struggled out of the gate too. In his second game, he lost in the Georgia Dome, throwing three interceptions. From that point on, the team slowly transitioned out of Mike McCoy's offense into the one Peyton had previously ran in Indianapolis.

At the end of the Kansas City last time out, Manning finally found his groove when he was in a shotgun system and barking adjustments at the line. That's where he thrives. Under new head coach Gary Kubiak, Manning might have been limited early, but after seeing how he performed in a two-minute drill type of atmosphere, it's going to be hard to not let him run the offense like he always has.

Don't be surprised if you see these Broncos look like the old Broncos in Week 3. Either way, conservative, scared coverage is what Manning loves to eat up. Rivers got it going mid-game against the Lions and was able to pull out a three-score comeback. The Vikings, on a short week after looking horrible against the San Francisco 49ers, completed 14 of 18 passes against Detroit.

Who would have guessed losing a $100 million defensive lineman would make such an impact on a defense?

The Pick: Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Line was up assuming Matthew Stafford was playing.

Monday Night Football: Kansas City @ Green Bay

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Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Current Line: Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Green Bay looks like one of, if not the best team in the NFL heading into Week 3. Playing at home, they should be favored against anyone, but by how much?

Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception at Lambeau Field since 2013, but the Kansas City Chiefs also rarely lose games by multiple scores. The Chiefs also are coming off of long break after playing on Thursday night in Week 2.

So take the Chiefs, right? Wrong. The Seahawks never lost two-score games until they faced Green Bay in Week 2. Also, one of the Chiefs' double-digit losses under head coach Andy Reid came after a bye week, when the team went to Denver to face divisional rival the Broncos. This isn't as impossible as some would like for you to believe. It's happened before.

I know the Packers lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga to an MCL, which means swing tackle Don Barclay will have to line up against All-World Justin Houston, but he didn't seem to have that much of a problem with the Seattle Seahawks.

My biggest issue with the Kansas City Chiefs is they still can't play from behind. Green Bay likes to get up early, so the defense, full of high-variance sack and interception contributors, can make plays against pressured offenses. They are talented enough to score, even while running the usual predetermined script to start the game.

If this line flipped up to +7.5 for Kansas City, I would rethink it, but as long as a touchdown lead wins for Green Bay, I'll take the odds.

The Pick: Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Locks of the Week

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1) Philadelphia (+2.5) @ New York Jets

2) Atlanta (PK) @ Dallas

3) Denver (-2.5) @ Detroit

4) New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)

5) Pittsburgh @ St. Louis (+1.5)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.