Fantasy Football 2015: Early Mock Draft and Rankings Before Training Camps

Folks, it's finally time to start obsessing about fantasy football again.

Training camp is nearly here, and that means it's time for my preliminary rankings and mock draft. While this will change once the preseason hits due to pending suspensions, possible injuries and players emerging during preseason games, the following should give you a good idea of my strategy heading into this fantasy season. 

Spoiler alert: get a good running back, and get him early. But alas, more on that to come. Let's break down some fantasy rankings!
 

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Team
1	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts
2	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers
3	Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks
4	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos
5	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers
6	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers
7	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons
8	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints
9	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions
10	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys
11	Ryan Tannehill	Miami Dolphins
12	Eli Manning	New York Giants
13	Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers
14	Tom Brady	New England Patriots
15	Carson Palmer	Arizona Cardinals
16	Sam Bradford	Philadelphia Eagles
17	Colin Kaepernick	San Francisco 49ers
18	Jay Cutler	Chicago Bears
19	Joe Flacco	Baltimore Ravens
20	Alex Smith	Kansas City Chiefs

In standard-scoring leagues, the difference atop the quarterback rankings between the top-ranked Aaron Rodgers and runner-up Andrew Luck were turnovers. Literally. While Rodgers threw just five picks and fumbled twice—which is absurd, by the way—Luck threw 16 interceptions and fumbled six times. That difference of 15 turnovers represented a 30-point swing for Rodgers, catapulting him above Luck by just six fantasy points.

Luck trumped him in nearly every other category, however, with more passing yards, touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing scores. While it's hardly safe to assume Rodgers will turn the ball over more in 2015, it does seem safe to project Luck to turn the ball over a bit less in his fourth season. Either way, fantasy owners can't really go wrong with either option in the second round.

This is not the year to take a first-round quarterback, however. There is pretty good value at the position later in the draft, while running back is enough of a crapshoot that you'll probably want to snag a reliable one early on.

A few intriguing players to keep an eye on:

• I expect Cam Newton to have a bounce-back year. He was hurt for a good portion of last season, and the team drafted another big target for him in Devin Funchess. With Kelvin Benjamin hopefully taking the next step and Greg Olsen as steady as ever, Newton should post solid numbers if he's allowed to continue running the ball. 
• Ditto for Matt Stafford. If Calvin Johnson stays healthy, Stafford should return to a top-10 ranking after last year's disappointing campaign. 
• If Carson Palmer can stay healthy, look out. In the six games he played last year, he notched 16 or more fantasy points in five of them. 
• If both Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez can produce in Philadelphia Eagles coach Chip Kelly's system, so can Sam Bradford. He has to stay healthy, of course, but if he does, don't be surprised if he's a top-10 quarterback. If you are waiting on a quarterback until the later rounds, nab Bradford as your QB2. His upside is immense. 
• Tom Brady's value changes depending on how many games he's suspended. If he's only out for a game—or none at all—bump him up a few slots.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Team
1	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks
2	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings
3	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers
4	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs
5	DeMarco Murray	Philadelphia Eagles
6	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears
7	LeSean McCoy	Buffalo Bills
8	Le'Veon Bell	Pittsburgh Steelers
9	Arian Foster	Houston Texans
10	C.J. Anderson	Denver Broncos
11	Jeremy Hill	Cincinnati Bengals
12	Alfred Morris	Washington
13	Carlos Hyde	San Francisco 49ers
14	Lamar Miller	Miami Dolphins
15	Mark Ingram	New Orleans Saints
16	Melvin Gordon	San Diego Chargers
17	Joique Bell	Detroit Lions
18	Frank Gore	Indianapolis Colts
19	Andre Ellington	Arizona Cardinals
20	Justin Forsett	Baltimore Ravens
21	Jonathan Stewart	Carolina Panthers
22	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals
23	Todd Gurley	St. Louis Rams
24	T.J. Yeldon	Jacksonville Jaguars
25	C.J. Spiller	Buffalo Bills
26	Tevin Coleman	Atlanta Falcons
27	Latavius Murray	Oakland Raiders
28	Rashad Jennings	New York Giants
29	Joseph Randle	Dallas Cowboys
30	Chris Ivory	New York Jets
31	LeGarrette Blount	New England Patriots
32	Isaiah Crowell	Cleveland Browns
33	Ryan Mathews	Philadelphia Eagles
34	Bishop Sankey	Tennessee Titans
35	Doug Martin	Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For my money, there is a distinct top five at the running back position, followed by two pretty safe bets with somewhat less upside. None in the top five, however, are necessarily completely safe, no-brainer picks.

Marshawn Lynch is my pick simply because the Seattle Seahawks keep handing him the rock and he keeps posting big numbers. But he's 29 years old and has undertaken a huge workload in recent seasons, so this could be the year he falls off the proverbial cliff. Until he actually shows signs of slowing down, however, it's hard to pass on him with one of the top picks.

At 30 years old, Adrian Peterson isn't young, either, though he could be primed for a monster season after missing all but one game last year due to suspension. With a season to rest his body, Peterson has enormous potential. He could also be rusty, though, so he isn't without risk.

Eddie Lacy is one of the best young running backs in the game and happens to play for one of the best offenses in the NFL, too. He might just be the safest option in the top five, though I think his upside is limited somewhat compared to the other players on this list given Green Bay's pass-first offense. 

Jamaal Charles might see his touches limited a bit this year, too. After all, the team doesn't really need to overwork him with Knile Davis behind him on the depth chart and both Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin to feature in the passing game. Charles should still be the focus of the Chiefs offense; he just doesn't need to be the entirety of their offense this year. 

And then there is DeMarco Murray, who may be the biggest boom-or-bust option of them all. His downhill, slashing style is absolutely perfect for Chip Kelly's offense, and his potential to absolutely skewer teams is really high. But he's also an injury-prone back who carried the ball a whopping 393 times last season—always a potential precursor for an injury-plagued campaign the next year.

Add in Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles in the backfield, and Philly can afford to cut Murray's touches significantly in order to keep him fresh. He'll post big numbers in this offense, no doubt, but the Eagles won't need to run him into the ground like Dallas did. 

After that, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy are both safe options with somewhat less upside than the first five players listed. Still, if you have a top-seven pick, you should really be nabbing one of those players, because after them, the questions are plentiful.

Le'Veon Bell would be No. 1 on this list, but he'll be suspended for three games, which means you have to be very confident in your drafting ability to select him early in the draft. Arian Foster is pretty much guaranteed to suffer some injury at some point, though if he stays healthy, of course, he has top-five potential. 

Will C.J. Anderson continue to dominate like he did at the end of last season? (He does seem to perfectly fit Denver's scheme, and head coach Gary Kubiak will re-emphasize the running game, so he's very intriguing.) Can Jeremy Hill post big numbers for a second straight year despite being in a platoon with Giovani Bernard? (He'll likely relegate Bernard to third-down duties.) Can Lamar Miller repeat last year's breakthrough campaign? (After losing Charles Clay and Mike Wallace, the Miami Dolphins will likely rely on the ground game even more this year.)

There are more questions than answers at running back this year. Nabbing a safe option early on and taking a chance on a high-upside player in the third or fourth round is a smart strategy this year. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Team
1	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers
2	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos
3	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys
4	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers
5	Odell Beckham Jr.	New York Giants
6	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons
7	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals
8	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions
9	Alshon Jeffery	Chicago Bears
10	Randall Cobb	Green Bay Packers
11	Mike Evans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12	T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis Colts
13	Emmanuel Sanders	Denver Broncos
14	Kelvin Benjamin	Carolina Panthers
15	DeAndre Hopkins	Houston Texans
16	DeSean Jackson	Washington
17	Jeremy Maclin	Kansas City Chiefs
18	Golden Tate	Detroit Lions
19	Jordan Matthews	Philadelphia Eagles
20	Brandin Cooks	New Orleans Saints
21	Sammy Watkins	Buffalo Bills
22	Brandon Marshall	New York Jets
23	Mike Wallace	Minnesota Vikings
24	Keenan Allen	San Diego Chargers
25	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26	Jarvis Landry	Miami Dolphins
27	Brandon LaFell	New England Patriots
28	Julian Edelman	New England Patriots
29	Amari Cooper	Oakland Raiders
30	Victor Cruz	New York Giants
31	Steve Smith	Baltimore Ravens
32	Torrey Smith	San Francisco 49ers
33	Andre Johnson	Indianapolis Colts
34	Martavis Bryant	Pittsburgh Steelers
35	Nelson Agholor	Philadelphia Eagles
36	Michael Floyd	Arizona Cardinals
37	Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons
38	Anquan Boldin	San Francisco 49ers
39	Kevin White	Chicago Bears
40	Eric Decker	New York Jets

Is wide receiver the new running back of fantasy football?

It's certainly getting close to that point. In the final flex rankings from last season, four receivers cracked the top 10 and 12 receivers cracked the top 25, equaling the number of running backs (tight end Rob Gronkowski came in at No. 18, allowing for the equal split of receivers and backs). 

At the top of the draft, the receivers available like Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant seem safer options than any of the running backs. On the other hand, the position is deep enough that you are better off taking a top running back and stocking up on receivers farther down the board. 

If you are going to take the plunge and select a receiver within the first five picks, however, Brown is your best bet. He scored eight or more fantasy points in 15 of 16 games last year in standard-scoring leagues, reached double-digit points an incredible 14 times and scored 20 or more points in six games. That level of consistency makes him incredibly valuable, and there's no reason to think he can't match or exceed those numbers, especially with Bell sidelined for the first three weeks. 

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Team
1	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots
2	Jimmy Graham	Seattle Seahawks
3	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers
4	Martellus Bennett	Chicago Bears
5	Travis Kelce	Kansas City Chiefs
6	Julius Thomas	Jacksonville Jaguars
7	Zach Ertz	Philadelphia Eagles
8	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys
9	Dwayne Allen	Indianapolis Colts
10	Jordan Cameron	Miami Dolphins
11	Delanie Walker	Tennessee Titans
12	Owen Daniels	Denver Broncos
13	Coby Fleener	Indianapolis Colts
14	Kyle Randolph	Minnesota Vikings
15	Tyler Eifert	Cincinnati Bengals

The only reason Gronkowski isn't a first-round pick is due to his injury history. Take that away, and few players have more value as compared to other players at their position than Gronk does compared to other tight ends. The man is a touchdown machine, and his 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns last year would have been impressive for a wide receiver, let alone a tight end.

Indeed, his 178 fantasy points in standard leagues put him at No. 10 in the wideout rankings from last season. Not too shabby.

Even if Jimmy Graham stays healthy, expect a slight decrease in production. Nothing too major, of course, but Graham was often the focal point of the New Orleans offense. In Seattle, it's still all about the running game.

And Julius Thomas isn't going to post the same production with Blake Bortles that he did with Peyton Manning. That's concerning, because his value last year was almost entirely based on his 12 touchdown receptions. That number is going to decrease significantly in a far less explosive offense, though his outstanding athleticism will nonetheless make him a dangerous weapon in Jacksonville.  

Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team
1	Seattle Seahawks
2	Buffalo Bills
3	New York Jets
4	St. Louis Rams
5	Houston Texans
6	Miami Dolphins
7	Arizona Cardinals
8	Denver Broncos
9	Baltimore Ravens
10	Minnesota Vikings

Don't lose too much sleep over the defense you draft. While there are certain teams that should hold their value throughout the season—Seattle, Buffalo with Rex Ryan running the show, the New York Jets with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie allowing Todd Bowles to blitz at will—in most cases, you can play the matchups with defenses. 

For that reason, I generally don't think you should be worrying about a defense until very late in your draft—namely in one of the final four rounds. 

Kickers

Rank	Player	Team
1	Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots
2	Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts
3	Cody Parkey	Philadelphia Eagles
4	Steven Hauschka	Seattle Seahawks
5	Justin Tucker	Baltimore Ravens
6	Matt Prater	Detroit Lions
7	Connor Barth	Denver Broncos
8	Matt Bryant	Atlanta Falcons
9	Dan Bailey	Dallas Cowboys
10	Shaun Suisham	Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick a kicker who has proved to be consistent in the past on an explosive offensive team, and enjoy the 1.5 extra fantasy points per week you might be getting if you have the top kicker as opposed to the 10th-best option.

Seriously, if you are losing sleep over who your kicker is, you are doing fantasy wrong. 

Top 100 Players

Pick	Position	Player	Team
1	RB	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks
2	RB	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings
3	RB	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers
4	RB	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs
5	RB	DeMarco Murray	Philadelphia Eagles
6	RB	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears
7	RB	LeSean McCoy	Buffalo Bills
8	WR	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers
9	WR	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos
10	RB	Le'Veon Bell	Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 2
11	RB	Arian Foster	Houston Texans
12	TE	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots
13	QB	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts
14	QB	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers
15	WR	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys
16	WR	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers
17	RB	C.J. Anderson	Denver Broncos
18	WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	New York Giants
19	WR	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons
20	WR	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals
Round 3
21	WR	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions
22	RB	Jeremy Hill	Cincinnati Bengals
23	RB	Alfred Morris	Washington
24	RB	Carlos Hyde	San Francisco 49ers
25	RB	Lamar Miller	Miami Dolphins
26	WR	Alshon Jeffery	Chicago Bears
27	WR	Randall Cobb	Green Bay Packers
28	WR	Mike Evans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29	WR	T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis Colts
30	QB	Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks
Round 4
31	RB	Mark Ingram	New Orleans Saints
32	RB	Melvin Gordon	San Diego Chargers
33	RB	Joique Bell	Detroit Lions
34	TE	Jimmy Graham	Seattle Seahawks
35	QB	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos
36	WR	Emmanuel Sanders	Denver Broncos
37	WR	Kelvin Benjamin	Carolina Panthers
38	WR	DeAndre Hopkins	Houston Texans
39	RB	Frank Gore	Indianapolis Colts
40	RB	Andre Ellington	Arizona Cardinals
Round 5
41	QB	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers
42	TE	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers
43	WR	DeSean Jackson	Washington
44	WR	Jeremy Maclin	Kansas City Chiefs
45	QB	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers
46	RB	Justin Forsett	Baltimore Ravens
47	RB	Jonathan Stewart	Carolina Panthers
48	RB	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals
49	WR	Golden Tate	Detroit Lions
50	QB	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons
Round 6
51	WR	Jordan Matthews	Philadelphia Eagles
52	WR	Brandin Cooks	New Orleans Saints
53	WR	Sammy Watkins	Buffalo Bills
54	WR	Brandon Marshall	New York Jets
55	WR	Mike Wallace	Minnesota Vikings
56	WR	Keenan Allen	San Diego Chargers
57	TE	Martellus Bennett	Chicago Bears
58	TE	Travis Kelce	Kansas City Chiefs
59	TE	Julius Thomas	Jacksonville Jaguars
60	QB	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints
Round 7
61	RB	Todd Gurley	St. Louis Rams
62	RB	T.J. Yeldon	Jacksonville Jaguars
63	WR	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
64	WR	Jarvis Landry	Miami Dolphins
65	WR	Brandon LaFell	New England Patriots
66	WR	Julian Edelman	New England Patriots
67	WR	Amari Cooper	Oakland Raiders
68	TE	Zach Ertz	Philadelphia Eagles
69	RB	C.J. Spiller	New Orleans Saints
70	WR	Victor Cruz	New York Giants
Round 8
71	WR	Steve Smith	Baltimore Ravens
72	WR	Torrey Smith	San Francisco 49ers
73	WR	Andre Johnson	Indianapolis Colts
74	WR	Martavis Bryant	Pittsburgh Steelers
75	TE	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys
76	RB	Tevin Coleman	Atlanta Falcons
77	RB	Latavius Murray	Oakland Raiders
78	QB	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions
79	TE	Dwayne Allen	Indianapolis Colts
80	WR	Nelson Agholor	Philadelphia Eagles
Round 9
81	RB	Rashad Jennings	New York Giants
82	RB	Joseph Randle	Dallas Cowboys
83	TE	Jordan Cameron	Miami Dolphins
84	TE	Delanie Walker	Tennessee Titans
85	RB	Chris Ivory	New York Jets
86	QB	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys
87	WR	Michael Floyd	Arizona Cardinals
88	WR	Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons
89	WR	Anquan Boldin	San Francisco 49ers
90	TE	Owen Daniels	Denver Broncos
Round 10
91	TE	Coby Fleener	Indianapolis Colts
92	QB	Ryan Tannehill	Miami Dolphins
93	WR	Kevin White	Chicago Bears
94	WR	Eric Decker	New York Jets
95	RB	LeGarrette Blount	New England Patriots
96	RB	Isaiah Crowell	Cleveland Browns
97	RB	Ryan Mathews	Philadelphia Eagles
98	RB	Bishop Sankey	Tennessee Titans
99	QB	Eli Manning	New York Giants
100	D/ST	N/A	Seattle Seahawks

As mentioned before, if you have one of the top seven picks, you should probably be snagging a running back. The position thins out pretty quickly. If you are at the turn of the first round, you have an interesting choice. 

If two top-10 running backs are available, it might be too tempting to pass on doubling down at the position. You can find a solid quarterback and plenty of wide receiver depth later in the draft. You could also either go RB-QB or RB-WR. If you hit the 10th pick and several owners have already nabbed a quarterback or wide receiver, you may want to go this route to ensure you don't miss out on a run of the top options at either position. 

For the bold among us, I would suggest seriously considering a RB-TE combo, with Gronkowski being the only tight end at the position worth taking there. It's a risky strategy given Gronk's injury history and Brady's possible suspension, but he also gives you such amazing value at a traditionally weak position that nabbing him in the second round is a sound strategy. 

But regardless, I highly recommend you draft one of the top running backs in the first two rounds. And then handcuff him with a player like Davis in Kansas City or Mathews in Philadelphia. If last year was any indication, running back could again be a position beset by injuries and committee situations this year.