NFL Mock Draft 2015: Examining Best Possible 1st-Round Picks for Each Team
The NFL draft is full of buzz words that every fan knows. Things like "need" and "fit" are two of the most used phrases you will hear on television and read in analyses. There's a reason for it, as every team is trying to line up its needs with how well a player fits its scheme and getting value for the selection.
Not every team can afford to wait on value. The draft is such a crapshoot that teams can't predict what the other will do, therefore it's not surprising to see some players taken before most pundits had them off the board.
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Regardless of what the explanation for a team making a pick is, you can rest assured that countless hours of debate and study go on in the war room before the selection. With the benefit of time on our side, here's how the first round should shake out right now.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
The Buccaneers are further away from contention than it seemed when the season started. Lovie Smith has done nothing to improve the defense, while the offense has been too inconsistent due to bad quarterback play.
In the debate between Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, the 2014 Heisman winner gets the edge for the No. 1 overall pick because of his more diverse skill set. Even though Winston fits the mold of a traditional pocket passer better, Mariota has improved.
Todd McShay of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) noted in his first mock draft that Mariota "isn't great" with his accuracy in the pocket right now. Few quarterbacks enter the league as finished products, so the Oregon star has plenty to work on when the NFL comes calling.
The good news is playing in Tampa Bay puts Mariota in an offense with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to play with.
2. Tennessee Titans: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
The Titans are in an unusual spot. They have a young quarterback on the roster in Zach Mettenberger. He's not as celebrated as Winston, nor as high profile coming in as a sixth-round pick, but he's had some good moments as a rookie.
Whether that's enough for Ken Whisenhunt to go with Mettenberger entering 2015 is another story. If not, Winston has to be the pick. There are obvious problems with the Florida State star, as Greg Bedard of TheMMQB.com illustrates:
“On the field there’s something special there,” an AFC general manager says of Winston. “The problem is, can you ever trust him? Are you going to be able to sleep at night? That’s a rough deal with a quarterback.”
Winston has his share of baggage, but the talent is undeniable. As long as he comes out of the predraft screening with few concerns, some team will take a chance on him early in the first round.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DL, USC
Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley is trying to build a physical team in the mold of the one he left in Seattle. It's a slow process, but adding a versatile defensive lineman like Leonard Williams is essential. The USC star can play in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme, moving inside to defensive tackle or lining up outside at defensive end.
4. Oakland Raiders: Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
The Raiders found a superstar outside linebacker with the fifth pick in last year's draft. As impressive as Khalil Mack has been, he's not enough to change the fortunes of this defense on his own. Shane Ray fills a necessary pass-rushing void, as Oakland finished tied for 30th in sacks.
Ray isn't a well-rounded player at this stage of his career, but his quickness off the edge and underrated power make him a pass-rushing force to be reckoned with right away.
5. Washington: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Even though Washington has problems at the quarterback position, some of those issues can be traced to an offensive line that has allowed the second-most sacks in the league. Brandon Scherff hasn't taken the leap some analysts expected after 2013, when Gil Brandt of NFL.com suggested he could be the No. 1 overall pick:
The Iowa senior is more of a solid investment than a true superstar. That's not likely to get a frustrated fanbase excited, but Dan Snyder needs to take a page from Jerry Jones by toning down the headline-grabbing and building a foundation.
6. New York Jets: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Since the Jets will miss out on the top two quarterbacks, their next best shot to improve on offense is finding a difference-making wide receiver.
Amari Cooper doesn't have elite size or speed, but he's a master route-runner whose game speed plays better than his straight-line speed and makes more plays in traffic than any receiver in the 2015 class.
7. Chicago Bears: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
The only surprise for the Bears is if they don't take a defensive player. This once-proud franchise has fallen off the rails on both sides of the ball, though the defense has particularly fallen on hard times, allowing the most points in the league this season.
The Bears have been middle of the road at getting to the quarterback, but that puts more pressure on a secondary that hasn't been up to the challenge. Randy Gregory is a pass-rusher extraordinaire who must learn to defend the run better before becoming a true three-down defensive end.
Given Chicago's current standing in the league, it can afford to wait for development since Gregory's ceiling is so high.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
The Falcons are another team in desperate need of an impact edge-rusher. They have been trying to find one for years with no success, though that should change in the 2015 draft.
Vic Beasley does have limitations that may not fit with Atlanta's current scheme, though ESPN's Mel Kiper thinks the Clemson star can work in a 4-3 or 3-4 alignment, via Aaron Brenner of The Post and Courier:
The good news is Atlanta's system figures to undergo changes after the season, as Mike Smith was fired by the team following a disappointing 6-10 season that ended with a 34-3 loss against Carolina in Week 17, per the team's website.
Beasley isn't a huge edge-rusher at 235 pounds, but his speed and quickness off the line are top of the line and his athleticism is tremendous. He will need time to develop, with the upside of an elite pass-rusher in one or two years.
9. New York Giants: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
When the Giants were winning Super Bowls, it was on the strength of a deep defensive line and solid linebacker play. Shaq Thompson is a development project, having spent time on both sides of the ball at Washington, but that also speaks to his incredible athleticism.
It's time for the Giants to start building their defense with high-ceiling plays, especially with a top-10 pick, if they want to be feared on that side of the ball anytime soon.
10. St. Louis Rams: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
While figuring out the quarterback situation is a priority, the Rams also have to upgrade their receiving corps. Tavon Austin is best used as a slot man/role player out of the backfield.
Kyle Tucker of The Courier-Journal noted on Twitter that he believes the gap between Parker and Cooper isn't as wide as you might think:
Parker isn't as good in traffic as Cooper, but the Louisville standout does have better size at 6'3" and better straight-line speed. He will open up plays down the field for St. Louis, which is something this offense hasn't had in years.
11. Minnesota Vikings: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
This was a disastrous season for the Vikings' offensive line. Matt Kalil has proven to be a bust after being the fourth overall pick in 2012. All you need to know about how bad the USC star is comes courtesy of this Vine from B/R's Ian Kenyon:
The fact that Teddy Bridgewater has been able to find success as a rookie playing behind that line should have Minnesota excited about the future.
Cedric Ogbuehi did struggle earlier this season as a left tackle before moving back to the right side of the line, but it was his first shot playing the key spot and has shown enough talent to warrant another shot at the next level. He's still got the floor of a solid starting right tackle in the NFL.
12. Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Cleveland's run defense has been dreadful this season because the line is built around smaller edge-rushers who can get overpowered by bigger offensive lines. Danny Shelton is a 339-pound gap stuffer with power who has the talent to evolve into an effective pass-rusher.
13. New Orleans Saints: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
Fixing the Saints' defense won't be an easy task, as they ranked 25th in passing yards allowed, 29th in rushing yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. At least they deserve credit for consistency, even if it's bad.
One thing Sean Payton's defense needs to succeed is a steady pass rush. The Saints utilize a lot of blitzes, which makes the secondary vulnerable if pressure doesn't come. Dante Fowler's ability off the line makes it easier for New Orleans to blitz less, allowing the defense to stand tall with more players available in pass coverage.
14. Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
The Dolphins have been strong at defending the pass this season thanks to their defensive line's ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks, though Geno Smith had his way with them in the season finale. They need to shore up the secondary, especially because Cortland Finnegan and Brent Grimes are over the age of 30.
Trae Waynes is a tall cornerback at 6'1", though his slight 182-pound frame makes it easy for bigger receivers to overpower him. He makes up for it with tremendous vision and ball skills, unmatched by any defensive back in this class.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
There might be cries for a wide receiver at this spot, but the 49ers were at their best when the offensive line was dominating opponents. Colin Kaepernick has to get better in the pocket, but he hasn't gotten much help from the big men in the trenches.
San Francisco's offensive line will likely undergo changes in the offseason with Mike Iupati being a free agent. Andrus Peat doesn't exactly fill that void, as his value comes from being a strong offensive tackle instead of a guard, but the 49ers could use him inside early in his career and move him out in the next few years.
Regardless, if the 49ers want to reclaim their identity, it will come from building the offensive line.
16. Houston Texans: La'El Collins, OT, LSU
The Texans could opt for a wide receiver in this spot, especially if Andre Johnson gets released or traded due to a $16.1 million cap number. However, they need to get more physical up front.
LSU's La'El Collins does have some problems controlling quicker defenders, but his ability in the running game is as good as there is in this class. He's quick, powerful and surprisingly agile for a 324-pound player. The Texans are at their best when Arian Foster is controlling the offense, so doing anything to help him succeed would make sense for the team's first-round pick.
17. San Diego Chargers: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
San Diego has been eaten alive on defense when trying to stop the run. The Chargers gave up 355 rushing yards to San Francisco in Week 16, and they allowed 124.1 yards per game.
Eddie Goldman is the best run-stopping defensive tackle in this class. His ability to go high or low off the snap is incredible. He's got some development ahead as a pass-rusher, but that's not what the Chargers would need him to be right away.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The uncertain future for Eric Berry, who was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in December, leaves the Chiefs in an unenviable spot. The personal consideration of Berry's well-being has to go up against the team's needs on the field.
Landon Collins is a ball hawk who excels defending the pass and is also strong against the run. The Alabama star gives Andy Reid's defense versatility and an intimidating presence that was lost when Berry had to step away from the game.
19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo): Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
After addressing their need for help on the defensive line earlier, the Browns get to address their offense. Josh Gordon has been erratic since returning, though he should be given a pass because of all the time he missed and inconsistent quarterback play.
Since the Browns can't give up on Johnny Manziel yet, they have to surround him with more weapons. Kevin White is rising up draft boards thanks to his 102-catch performance in 2014. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel quoted one scout who compared the West Virginia star to Larry Fitzgerald:
"He's more of a (Larry) Fitzgerald type receiver in that he doesn't have great speed," the scout told McGinn. "I never see him beat people deep. But (if) he is even with them he's going to get the ball. Very good player."
The Browns have the flashy receiver in Gordon. Now, they need to get the one who will make plays in traffic to help their young quarterback.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
It's hard to assess Ifo Ekpre-Olomu's draft stock because of the unfortunate knee injury suffered during Oregon's preparation for the College Football Playoff.
However, one team that has extra inside information on Ekpre-Olomu is Philadelphia. Chip Kelly used to coach the star defensive back and the Eagles have a need for help in the secondary. A lot will be determined in the predraft process, but for now the Oregon star remains in the first-round mix.
21. Carolina Panthers: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida)
Carolina had a stable offensive presence in 2013 thanks to a sturdy offensive line, but that went away in a hurry thanks to retirements and roster turnover. Cam Newton has been inconsistent due to injuries and poor protection.
Ereck Flowers is still developing his talent. Manny Navarro of The Miami Herald noted that scouts believe another year in college could do the Miami star some good:
Basically, that's what the Panthers should be looking for at this spot. Flowers has the talent to be a star in the NFL and will need time to reach it, which makes him a strong value at No. 21.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
The Ravens got more production this year than they could have hoped for from Steve Smith Sr., but he's also 35 years old. Jaelen Strong is a different type of receiver at 6'3" and 212 pounds, succeeding thanks to tremendous hands that allow him to make plays anywhere on the field.
Joe Flacco has tremendous arm strength, but the Ravens are at their best when they have more versatility in the offense than just letting Steve Smith Sr. and Torrey Smith run deep. Strong would fit right in with those receivers before taking over as the No. 2 guy in 2016.
23. Cincinnati Bengals: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
The Bengals tried to address the secondary last year with Darqueze Dennard, but they can stand to add more youth. Dre Kirkpatrick has had strong moments throughout but hasn't put his skills together consistently. Leon Hall and Adam Jones are both over the age of 30.
Kevin Johnson is a good physical corner with excellent instincts. His anticipation skills are incredible, though it also gets him in trouble because he tries to play the ball instead of the receiver.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
These aren't your father's Steelers. Gone are the days of a strong, powerful defense and in is a potent, high-powered offensive aerial attack. That's not going to change in 2015, but it's time for Pittsburgh to think about the future of the safety position.
Gerod Holliman has been a ball hawk all year, leading college football with 14 interceptions. There's still work to do in terms of technique, but a free safety doesn't have to be pretty to make plays. He can make an immediate impact because of his ability to get after the ball.
25. Detroit Lions: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
One reason for Matthew Stafford's inconsistency and the absence of a running game in Detroit is a bad offensive line. Josh Norris of Rotoworld.com put Ronnie Stanley as his top eligible tackle in the 2015 class:
"(Stanley) has length and a big frame, but struggles to mirror laterally on counter moves for extremely long periods of time. That can be an issue when blocking for a quarterback like Everett Golson, who resets the pocket and takes his time working through progressions. Looks so much more assertive and aggressive this year.
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Stafford is a vastly different quarterback than Everett Golson, so Stanley's true talents should have no problem shining through. It's also imperative the Lions find some kind of running game to take pressure off Stafford and the passing game.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
All of Indianapolis' holes have been exposed in light of Andrew Luck's recent turnover problems. The offensive line is terrible, there's no running game to speak of and the defense is too small. Benardrick McKinney solves the latter problem as a 6'5", 245-pound monster in the middle.
We've seen many defenses get transformed by the addition of a tackling machine at inside linebacker. Luke Kuechly made a world of difference for Carolina, for instance. McKinney doesn't have Kuechly's instincts, but is fast, strong and makes plays all over the field.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Alvin Dupree, LB, Kentucky
Even though the Cardinals have had success despite their many defensive changes before 2014 started, they still need to find depth at linebacker. Alvin Dupree is a tremendous athlete who has grown into a football player.
Dupree's range makes him a tackling machine, though he does need to get stronger against bigger offensive linemen. He can move into an Arizona defense that is strong in the secondary and against the run, but needs depth in the middle to become a truly elite unit.
28. Dallas Cowboys: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
It's unclear what will happen with DeMarco Murray after the season. He's a free agent and can ask for a huge salary, but the Cowboys also have to worry about re-signing Dez Bryant. Given how important the running game has been for Dallas in 2014, it's imperative the team finds a proper replacement if necessary.
Melvin Gordon doesn't have the same kind of ceiling as Todd Gurley, but he's also a safer bet to succeed next year given the knee injury suffered by Gurley. Gordon will also be going from a Wisconsin program that has one of the biggest offensive lines in college to playing behind the best offensive line in the NFL.
29. Green Bay Packers: Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
The Packers aren't usually in the business of paying wide receivers, though an exception was made for Jordy Nelson. They have another one to worry about with Randall Cobb approaching free agency, so Devin Funchess would make for a nice backup.
Funchess is a different kind of wideout, boasting a big frame and underrated speed. He's built like a tight end with the playmaking ability of a receiver. There's no better spot for a young receiver to learn than Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers throwing you passes.
30. New England Patriots: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
When you try to figure out Bill Belichick in the NFL draft, he makes you look stupid. The Patriots don't usually put a first-round premium on wide receivers, but that could change because of the drop in production from Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell to the No. 3 wide receiver.
Dorial Green-Beckham has his share of baggage off the field, but that's never stopped Belichick before. He's also a matchup nightmare at 6'6" and 225 pounds. His long frame allows him to create separation and make plays in traffic and deep down the field.
31. Denver Broncos: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford
It's an interesting time to be a Broncos fan. They have as many weapons as a team can possibly have right now, but Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas are due for paydays after the season.
If one of those players is forced out of Denver's offense, the front office will need to find a replacement. Jason McIntyre of TheBigLead.com noted that one scout compared Stanford's Ty Montgomery to Keenan Allen.
The Broncos need to figure out what their future direction is going to be. As long as they have Peyton Manning, the team will continue to go all-in on winning now. Montgomery solves both problems, as his short-term ability and long-term growth potential are worthy of a late first-round pick.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Imagine if the Seahawks can go from Marshawn Lynch to Todd Gurley in their backfield. Lynch keeps teasing retirement, to say nothing of the eventual salary cap restrictions the team will be under after paying Russell Wilson.
Bucky Brooks of NFL.com did note that Gurley's stock is likely to be impacted by his injury and wealth of options at the position:
"While executives around the league were certainly fascinated by his tantalizing combination of size, speed, burst and physicality at the position, they were unlikely to place a premium on nabbing a running back early in the first round when it appears there could be a wealth of options at the position (Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, Indiana's Tevin Coleman and Miami's Duke Johnson) that might offer better value at the bottom of Round 1 or on Day 2 (Rounds 2-3).
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A team like Seattle, with no huge holes to fill, can afford to take the risk on a player like Gurley because it understands better than most teams the premium of an elite running back.
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