NFL Picks and Predictions Week 14: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

After taking a beating last week (6-10 against the spread), your boy—the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate—has done a ton of soul searching.

I wrote in last week's intro that I didn't feel particularly good about my picks, and my fears were realized. I've been suffering from a gambler's worst nightmare: being on tilt and fearing that every bet I make will lose for the sole reason that I made it.

Every gambler has gone through it—where you feel like you have cosmic sway over the results of a particular game. When you hit a rough patch like that, you could take the Harlem Globetrotters on the money line against the Washington Generals, and the Generals would end up winning by 25. 

And when you gamble expecting to lose, you will lose your money. It's not even a question.

So over the past week, I've been gearing up for what's an extremely important week. It's time to start building momentum heading into the end of the regular season and the playoffs. Scared money don't make no money, yo, and it's time for me to start practicing that theory.

This week, the shackles are off. I'm ready to rock. And even though I'm angry at myself for not including the Packers in my best bets (I use my five Hilton SuperContest plays as best bets and lock them in on Thursday or Friday), I still feel good about where I'm at.

It's time to make that money. Let's get after it and make this a week to remember.

Total Season ATS: 104-86-3 (including Dallas on Thursday)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 31-36

Thursday Night Football: Dallas at Chicago

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Final Score: Dallas 41, Chicago 28 (Dallas covers -3.5)

This might have been the easiest bet of the week.

Dallas was never going to lose this football game (or not cover the spread). If you called the Bears a dumpster fire, you'd have to go on a nationwide tour apologizing to actual dumpster fires—that's how brutal this Chicago team has been.

The Bears couldn't stop DeMarco Murray and made a hobbled Tony Romo look like Roger Staubach in his prime. Plus, their offense didn't get going until garbage time, when Jay Cutler got on his Oscar-the-Grouch flow and slung the rock around to help pad his stats.

Most importantly, the game proved that the Cowboys are indeed a legitimate contender and look set to avoid the December collapse that has defined them for the better part of the last decade. 

And as for the Bears? Homie, if you want to wager on them in any game for the rest of the season, that's on you, yo. This team is dead in the water, and if coach Marc Trestman is brought back, there should be a federal investigation. 

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The Line: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-3)

I know, I know.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton isn't exactly trustworthy. Through 12 games this season, he has only 13 touchdown passes to go along with 13 interceptions—and some of those interceptions are so grotesque that they would be better served in a horror movie than a football game.

But when it comes down to it, Dalton is more trustworthy than the 2014 Pittsburgh Steelers, and that's saying something.

The Steelers have been way too inconsistent this season, losing games to the 2-10 Jets, 2-10 Buccaneers and last week at home to the 6-7 Saints. Just when you think the Steelers have turned a corner, they show you why they haven't made the postseason since 2011.

Is it possible that Dalton will implode and toss the football to the Steelers defenders with the vigor of an especially enthusiastic dog owner flinging a Frisbee at the park? Certainly. But it's more likely that the Steelers will fold like a cheap suit, and that makes this an easy call.

Expect Dalton to play well and connect early and often with star receiver A.J. Green, leading the Bengals to victory and pushing them one step closer to their second consecutive AFC North title.

The Pick: Cincinnati (-3)

Indianapolis at Cleveland

David Richard/Associated Press

The Line: Indianapolis at Cleveland (+3.5)

I was at work this past Wednesday when I heard the news: The Browns were sticking with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and keeping Johnny Manziel tethered to the bench.

I was crestfallen. Devastated. Forlorn. I almost asked my boss if I could go home. All I wanted was Manziel to start Sunday's game for the Browns.

I found myself cursing Browns coach Mike Pettine and hoping that LeBron could exercise some little-known opt-out clause to leave Cleveland again in midseason. I had to remove Manziel from the starting lineup of one of my playoff-bound fantasy teams. I came to grips with the fact that Sunday wouldn't be as fun without Manziel seeing game action.

But then I remembered that almost everyone felt the same way as I did. Almost everyone (Hoyer's family notwithstanding) wanted to see Manziel in the lineup. And if the artist known as JFF had been named the starter, the public would have been all over the Browns. 

With Hoyer remaining in the lineup, the public has moved onto the Colts. No one actually wants to bet on Hoyer, especially when Andrew Luck is the opposing quarterback.

And that's exactly why you should take the Browns with the points: Because every moron and their mother will be taking the Colts, and the casinos didn't build themselves.

Put aside your negative feelings for the Browns. Keep the Manziel jersey in the closet for at least one more week. And love the fact that you're getting the hook with the half-point at 3.5 with Cleveland at home.

The Pick: Cleveland (+3.5)

Tampa Bay at Detroit

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

The Line: Tampa Bay at Detroit (-10)

Honestly, there's no way this line could be big enough to dissuade me from taking the Lions.

Seriously. If the spread were Detroit at minus-28.5, I would take the Lions. Minus-93? Detroit all day. Minus-147? That might give me pause, but I'd still roll with the boys from Motown.

Why? Because the Buccaneers stink. They are an affront to not only professional football but human beings who possess good taste.

Last week, Bucs coach Lovie Smith was so asleep at the wheel that he was outcoached by Marvin Lewis. For the uninitiated, being outcoached by Lewis would be like being a worse mall Santa than Billy Bob Thornton's character in Bad Santa.

And you're thinking about taking the Bucs to cover the spread? Come on, peeps.

The Bucs will have zero answer for Calvin Johnson. They will have zero answer for Golden Tate. Matthew Stafford will carve them up like a Thanksgiving turkey. And oh yeah, Detroit's ferocious front will feast on Josh McCown and Tampa's pathetic offense.

This game won't be close. Give me the Lions with confidence. 

The Pick: Detroit (-10)

Houston at Jacksonville

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

The Line: Houston at Jacksonville (+6)

The line for this game opened at Houston (-4). The public has handed the Jaguars two free points.

The Texans are coming off a demolition of the Titans in which quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six touchdown passes—a rarer occurrence than Halley's Comet. 

Eighty-three percent of the gambling public thinks the Texans will beat the Jaguars on the road by a touchdown or more.

The casinos in Las Vegas did not appear out of thin air.

The Pick: Jacksonville (+6)

Baltimore at Miami

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The Line: Baltimore at Miami (-2.5)

I'm more excited for Sunday's tilt between the Ravens and Dolphins in Miami than I probably should be. I think it's going to be an awesome game and will almost certainly have a massive impact on the AFC playoff race.

Right now, both the Ravens and Dolphins are 7-5, and the winner of this game will have a significant leg up in the wild-card hunt. And even though Vegas likes the Ravens more than the Dolphins (hence the spread being lower than the standard three points with Miami at home), I'm going to roll with the boys from South Beach.

Slowly but surely, Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is earning my trust. Yeah, he didn't play that well last Monday night against the Jets, but he got the job done when it mattered the most, leading a late game-winning drive to secure victory. Even though his inability to throw the deep ball will ultimately sink the Dolphins, that particular foible won't cost them in this game.

Tannehill will pick apart a Baltimore secondary that's been hurt by injuries, and it obviously helps that Ravens star defensive tackle Haloti Ngata has been suspended for the final four games of the regular season for violating the league's performance-enhancing substance policy.

In the past, the Ravens have clearly been the more trustworthy team. But on Sunday, I'm taking a leap of faith with Tannehill and the Dolphins. I don't think they'll let me down.

The Pick: Miami (-2.5)

NY Jets at Minnesota

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

The Line: NY Jets at Minnesota (-6)

You know the drill, #TeamDegenerate members.

When two bad football teams get together and the line is this big, you take the points.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

The Pick: NY Jets (+6)

Carolina at New Orleans

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Line: Carolina at New Orleans (-9.5)

This game is a classic tale of two teams moving in opposite directions.

While the Saints are 5-7, they garnered some major momentum last week with a road upset of the Steelers. While the Falcons currently occupy first place in the NFC South (also at 5-7), the Saints should be considered the favorite to eventually win the division and make the playoffs.

For the Carolina Panthers, the playoffs are only possible in a feverish dream. At 3-8-1 and collapsing, it would be a stunner if they pulled themselves off the mat and played well over the remainder of the season.

Even though the Saints have been uncharacteristically mediocre at home this year (they're 3-3 in the friendly confines of the Superdome), a meeting with the horrendous Panthers should be the tonic for what's ailed them.

After being held without a catch last week (and infuriating scores of fantasy owners in the process), expect Saints star tight end Jimmy Graham to go off and running back Mark Ingram to find the end zone at least once in a Saints romp.

Don't overthink it. Take the Saints at home and thank me on Monday morning.

The Pick: New Orleans (-9.5)

NY Giants at Tennessee

Eric Gay/Associated Press

The Line: NY Giants at Tennessee (+1)

OK, #TeamDegenerate peeps. You know the deal by now.

When two bad teams get together and the home team is the underdog, you take the points and don't look back, yo.

(Yes, I am aware that I went against my own rule last week when I grabbed the Giants to beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville. And yeah, I felt pretty damn good about myself when Big Blue raced out to a 21-3 lead. And yeah, I wanted to stick my face into a blast furnace at around 4:15 p.m. ET last Sunday. I think I'll save myself the aggravation this week—and you should, too.)

The Pick: Tennessee (+1)

St. Louis at Washington

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The Line: St. Louis at Washington (+3)

As regular readers of this column (and #TeamDegenerate) know, one of my favorite gambling exercises involves flipping the home and road team and seeing what the spread would be.

If we applied that for this game, the Rams would be a nine-point favorite at home against the Redskins. To put that in perspective, the Colts were minus-9.5 last week at home against the Redskins. 

Are we supposed to suddenly believe that the Rams are almost as good as the Andrew Luck-led Colts? I understand that the Rams have played well over the past month, but that's a stretch so large that it would make Mr. Fantastic jealous.

Simply put: St. Louis isn't good enough to be favored by three points on the road against the Redskins. So while logic and reason dictate the Rams winning handily, just remind yourself that logic and reason almost never rear their heads on NFL Sundays. 

I wouldn't advise wagering your hard-earned money on this game, but if I had to lean one way, I'd grab the points with the home team.

In Colt McCoy we trust!

Wait...what?

The Pick: Washington (+3)

Kansas City at Arizona

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

The Line: Kansas City at Arizona (+1)

I hate myself for what I'm about to do... 

(Voice inside my head: Nick, you have to pull the trigger with the Cardinals as a home underdog!)

I can't believe I'm about to back Drew Stanton...

(Voice inside my head: Yeah, Stanton has been brutal, but getting points at home? It's a slam dunk!)

But...but...Stanton is just so bad, and the Cardinals don't look capable of putting up points on Alabama, much less the Kansas City Chiefs...

(Voice inside my head: Nick, come on! It's not like the Chiefs offense is going to remind anyone of the 2007 Patriots, right? And now the Chiefs say they want to get the ball more in the hands of Jamaal Charles? You don't say! What a novel concept—getting the ball to your best player! The only problem with that is the Cardinals have the league's sixth-ranked rushing defense!)

But...Stanton...interceptions...horrible passes... 

(Voice inside my head: Oh, just shut up and do what you know you're going to do.)

Damn it all....

The Pick: Arizona (+1)

Buffalo at Denver

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

The Line: Buffalo at Denver (-9.5)

Part of me really wants to take the Bills to cover this number.

One could easily construct an argument that Buffalo's pass rush—keyed by defensive end Mario Williams (12 sacks), defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (10 sacks) and linebacker Jerry Hughes (9.5 sacks)—can and will hassle Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning all game long.

As we've seen over the years, nothing disrupts a Manning-led offense more than constant pressure. It clearly knocks Manning off his game and usually leads to turnovers. In theory, it's possible that Buffalo's defense could keep the Bills in the game.

But the problem with that theory is that Buffalo's offense is sputtering worse than your grandfather's old jalopy. If Kyle Orton is the answer at quarterback for the Bills, I'd love to know the question (actually, it's "which NFL quarterback possesses the most offensive facial hair?"). Orton isn't pushing the ball beyond the numbers, and as such, the Bills won't remind anyone of the K-Gun teams from the '90s.

Even if Manning is under duress, the Broncos are going to score somewhere in the range of 24-30 points—that's what they do. And it's unlikely that the Bills will score enough to stick with them.

Once the Broncos jump out to a lead, it's a wrap. Look for Denver to win by double digits and tight end Julius Thomas to score at least once if he returns to the field.

The Pick: Denver (-9.5)

San Francisco at Oakland

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

The Line: San Francisco at Oakland (+7.5)

The San Francisco 49ers were positively brutal last week against the Seattle Seahawks.

So brutal, in fact, that 49ers owner Jed York tweeted an apology after the game. So brutal, in fact, that speculation about coach Jim Harbaugh's future in San Francisco (or lack thereof) has reached a fever pitch.

The 49ers' season is on the brink. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick isn't playing well. The fans are restless. Ownership is angry. Everything points to the Raiders covering the spread at home.

And then you remind yourself that they're the Raiders and that they lost 52-0 last week to the Rams. And you remind yourself that the Harbaugh-led 49ers almost always play their best when their backs are against the wall. And you remind yourself that the 49ers have significantly more talent and heart than the Raiders.

And when you do all of those things, backing a side in this game becomes a mere formality.

If Raiders owner Mark Davis knew how to tweet (debatable, given the man strolls into the barber shop and saunters out looking like this), he'd surely apologize for the performance his team is about to put on.

It's OK though, Raiders fans. When Harbaugh is coaching your team next year, losing in hideous fashion will no longer be a regular staple on the Sunday menu.

The Pick: San Francisco (-7.5)

Seattle at Philadelphia

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

The Line: Seattle at Philadelphia (-1)

Class, repeat after me: Mark Sanchez is going up against the Seattle Seahawks defense. This will not end well for the Eagles.

Again, Sanchez is going up against the Seahawks defense. This will not end well for the Eagles.

One more time for good measure: Sanchez is going up against the Seahawks defense. This will not end well for the Eagles.

Now, what have we learned today, class?

That's right. Sanchez will not find success against the Seahawks defense. Well done!

Class dismissed.

The Pick: Seattle (+1)

Sunday Night Football: New England at San Diego

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Line: New England at San Diego (+3.5)

Let's once again play America's favorite game: Flipping the Line! (Imagine that said in the tone of a super-hokey game show announcer and it's much funnier. Right? Right? Bueller?)

If this game were in New England, the Patriots would be favored by 9.5 points against the Chargers. And yeah, the Patriots are the better team, but would you really lay that many points against a plucky San Diego squad?

I would not, and it's because I have too much respect for coach Mike McCoy's team. The Bolts showed their mettle and resolve in last week's comeback victory in Baltimore and generally save their best for when it matters the most. Philip Rivers is playing inspired football at the quarterback position, and Keenan Allen has come to life like a leviathan rising from the ocean depths.

It's tough to go against the Patriots in this spot, but that extra half-point gives me confidence in the Chargers. Could the Patriots win the game? Absolutely. But if they do, I don't believe it will be by more than a field goal.

Screw it. I'm pulling the trigger on the upset special. Give me the Chargers to shock the world (and the overwhelming public majority) and beat the Patriots outright.

The Pick: San Diego (+3.5)

Monday Night Football: Atlanta at Green Bay

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Line: Atlanta at Green Bay (-11.5)

This is probably the least anticipated Monday Night Football game in December featuring two division leaders in the history of the NFL.

And that's because the Atlanta Falcons—the first-place, 5-7 Atlanta Falcons—are no damn good and are going to get their doors blown off by the 9-3 Packers.

Last week, the Packers beat the Patriots at Lambeau 26-21. And if you watched the game, you know that they easily could have won by double digits. So ask yourself this question: If the Packers could have beaten the Patriots by double digits at home, what will they do to the atrocious Falcons?

I'll tell you what they'll do, damn it: lay a fifty-burger on them. Aaron Rodgers is going to eviscerate, devastate and obliterate Atlanta's defense. And once Green Bay jumps out to a lead, poor Matt Ryan will be running for his life like Indiana Jones speeding away from the boulder.

Here's some free advice, fantasy football players: Start Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy with confidence. This is going to be a bloodbath. 

The Pick: Green Bay (-11.5)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week Against the Spread

1. Cleveland (+3.5 vs. Indianapolis)
2. Detroit (-9.5 vs. Tampa Bay)
3. Jacksonville (+6 vs. Houston)
4. Miami (-2.5 vs. Baltimore)
5. San Francisco (-7.5 at Oakland)
   

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1. San Francisco at Oakland (under 41 points)
2. Buffalo at Denver (under 47 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1. Atlanta at Green Bay (over 55.5 points)
2. Houston at Jacksonville (over 42.5 points)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!