NFL Week 14 Picks: Jury Duty, Seahawks Rebirth and the Chargers Invasion
Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, written while I was stuck in jury duty all week! (Not really).
Note: All times listed are Eastern, lines are via Odds Shark and game capsules are listed in the order you should read them.
Seahawks at Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Even
We've written so many obituaries for the Seahawks over the last two months that it is easy to forget that they are 8-4. If the playoffs started before Sunday's kickoff, they would face the NFC South-leading (chortle) Falcons in the opening round. Their postseason road is paved with Mark Sanchez, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton, plus a game at home against a 49ers offense that their defense manhandled on the road. Back-to-back 19-3 victories against division rivals indicate that the Seahawks defense is returning to something close to Super Bowl form.
For a dead team, in other words, the Seahawks are remarkably spry.
Their return to the heart of the playoff picture does not eliminate all of the concerns the Seahawks raised in early season losses or during the Percy Harvin drama. The Seahawks are currently little more than Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and three defensive backs in search of reinforcements. The Eagles are a far more complete team: much deeper at the skill positions, more stable on the offensive line now that an early season injury emergency has subsided and superior on special teams. If Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas traded places with their Eagles counterparts, the result would be one team that could beat the 1972 Dolphins and another that would lose a best-of-seven series with the Raiders.
But Wilson will remain with the Seahawks and Sanchez with the Eagles on Sunday. Sanchez got away with things against the Cowboys and Titans secondaries that will be added to his blooper reel if he tries them against Sherman and Thomas. The Seahawks special teams won't be as accommodating as opponents like the 49ers have been, so a turnover-and-field-position game is likely to tilt Seattle's way. The Eagles have their own smoothed playoff road, but it is built atop Giants and Redskins opponents in tee-time mode, plus a rematch with a Cowboys team still trying to figure out what happened on Thanksgiving.
The Sanchez Eagles won't be able to beat the Seahawks, but they are also not dead, nor even "mostly dead." As December rolls on, both teams will have fun storming the castle.
Prediction: Seahawks 22, Eagles 17
Patriots at Chargers
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Patriots -3.5
If Peyton Manning is the Beatles and Tom Brady is the Rolling Stones, then Philip Rivers is the Kinks: quirky, differently awesome, the creator of an impressive body of work, but an easily overlooked regional favorite and connoisseur's choice that fell just short of global superstardom.
(More 2000s quarterback to British Invasion comparisons: Ben Roethlisberger is the Who, with Todd Haley as Keith Moon; Eli Manning is Herman's Hermits, with lots of hits but little influence; Donovan McNabb was the Yardbirds, with Terrell Owens as Jeff Beck. The Carson Palmer Bengals burned out too soon like Eric Burdon and the Animals. Joe Flacco is Joe Flacco.)
When Marlon McCree fumbled a potential game-icing Tom Brady interception right back to the Patriots in the 2006 playoffs, setting the stage for a Brady comeback, it was the football equivalent of the four-year ban from touring the United States the Kinks received in 1965. (The Kinks would fight so bitterly on stage that they sometimes seriously injured each other, despite the fact that they were playing songs like "Well Respected Man" and "Dandy"; it was the 60s rock equivalent of A.J. Smith's contract negotiation techniques.) Rivers was relegated to second-tier status during several years of high-profile Peyton-Brady-Roethlisberger showdowns, his Chargers an uneven afterthought that mixed 13-3 "Waterloo Sunset" masterpieces among forgettable .500 performances.
Rivers-Brady VI finds Rivers 0-5 but still a defiant, singular underdog. He cannot fill arenas for his crowd-pleasing greatest hits tours like Brady can, but he puts on remarkable shows in smaller venues, like last week's spectacular against the Ravens. A great Rivers game lacks the Brady dazzle, but it is more personal and intimate, off-speed curveball passes eluding defender's hands like they are bobbing to some baroque melody.
Rivers will never be Brady's equal, but if the superstar phones one in while Rivers plays with pride and passion before the home crowd, there's a chance that the Chargers will give the people what they want.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Bills at Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Broncos -9
On the final play of the first quarter of their victory over the Chiefs, the Broncos lined up in the formation shown in the following diagram:
You are not hallucinating. That's a Strong Offset-I formation. Tight end Virgil Green (85) is playing fullback. Backup tackle Paul Cornick (71) is on the end of the line as a de-facto tight end. The play is a conventional counter to C.J. Anderson, but there is nothing conventional going on in that diagram. Peyton Manning…with a sixth lineman and a fullback? In a non-goalline, non-kneel-on-the-ball situation? The Broncos might as well have lined up with a shortstop. The baffled Chiefs actually sniffed the play out well, but Anderson broke a tackle to pick up eight of his 168 yards.
A lot has changed in Denver in the last three weeks. Anderson has brought consistency to the running game. Newly promoted center Will Montgomery has been the most important part of an offensive line reorganization that has resulted in quicker interior run blocking. The Broncos have started running as often as they pass, a radical departure from the imbalance that made life easy for both the Patriots and Rams defenses.
But heavy-jumbo Peyton Manning I-formations on first down in the first quarter? That's cats-and-dogs-living-together territory.
The new-found rushing attack led the Broncos past two straight defense-oriented Wild Card hopefuls. The Bills are the third, and they are even more reliant on their defensive front to produce a victory than the Dolphins or Chiefs. The old Broncos strategy would have been to stomp on the Peyton accelerator and beat the Bills in a shootout. The new, balanced philosophy may prove safer and more reliable. It will also be more useful when the Broncos need to move beyond the Wild Card hopefuls and face their old nemeses in the playoffs.
Prediction: Broncos 28, Bills 17
Chiefs at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Even
Darnell Dockett claimed to be live-tweeting from jury duty on Tuesday. He spent the day claiming he was double-parked outside the courthouse (Dez Bryant must be his valet) and had ordered pizza delivery. All of us can relate to jury duty doldrums, and the civic responsibility must be extra tortuous for a man of Dockett's size: Most courthouse chairs seem to have been borrowed from local nursery schools and are jammed in such tight quarters that everyone bigger than a jockey goes home as Thigh-and-Shoulder Buddies.
The tweets were hilarious, but completely fabricated. The Arizona Republic confirmed that he did not have jury duty in his home county, and a photo he tweeted turned out to be from a Washington courtroom in 2013. Which is a good thing, because judges don't typically order jail time for juror-shenanigan contempt of court anymore, just lots and lots of additional jury duty.
Dockett's Internet Andy Kaufman routine was made possible by the fact that Dockett is on injured reserve. He has been gone so long that we would forget about him if he was not the NFL's reigning All-Pro Twitter follow. The Cardinals have been losing the players that make them recognizable all season. When Larry Fitzgerald missed two games, Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles were down to a great secondary glued onto an expansion roster. It was easy to perceive the fading Cardinals as prizefighters who dominated some early rounds but took too much punishment to go the distance.
Fitzgerald is back, but Tyrann Mathieu will miss several games with a broken finger, taking yet another defensive chess piece off Bowles' board. That may not be a big deal against the Chiefs, who never throw deep, but it is one more cause for stretch-drive pessimism. Jamaal Charles practiced all week, and the Chiefs defense won't be threatened by Drew Stanton and Andre Ellington the way they were by Peyton Manning and new sidekick C.J. Anderson. The Cardinals won't score many points, and they will need a first-class run stuffer to take the Chiefs out of their preferred gameplan. Unfortunately, their first-class run stuffer is preparing an elaborate hoax about waiting around a dentist's office, or something.
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Cardinals 17
Steelers at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals -3
Ben Roethlisberger with a wrist injury is like Andy Dalton all the time: Anything thrown further than 15 yards downfield looks like a knuckleball, but the quarterback still has plenty of tricks up his sleeve.
Of course, we are not certain what else is going on in Roethlisberger's sleeve. Bleacher Report's Will Carroll reports that Roethlisberger has fractured a small bone in his wrist, an injury that sounds worse than it really is: Carroll reports that the injury would only affect the follow-through (and consequently, the long-range accuracy) on Big Ben's throws, which jibes with what last Sunday's game tape showed.
The Steelers and Roethlisberger deny that he has any significant injury in his hand or wrist. Big Ben said he suffered "the loss of feeling in two fingers" against the Saints, a problem that got better on its own. Now he's "got the feeling back" and is "ready to rock 'n' roll." Even though he missed practice on Wednesday, officially for non-football related reasons. (He was back on Thursday.)
We could build a quarterback from Roethlisberger's wrist, Phillip Rivers' ribs, Tony Romo's back (and ribs) and half of Cam Newton's anatomy that is simultaneously injured and not injured, depending on whether you believe the NFL's Everything is Awesome injury reports or the evidence of your own eyes.
Trying to handicap the AFC North and predict the oscillations of the up-and-down Steelers is hard enough without the most important player on the field playing a game of Hide the X-Ray. Based on the best available evidence, I will stick with the quarterback who always throws like 40 percent of his hand is numb.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 21
Ravens at Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins -3
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines "downfield" as "into or toward the part of the field toward which a team is headed." In colloquial football parlance, downfield typically refers to a point about 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage, a place where deep safeties are the only defenders. Examples of "downfield" used in a sentence include:
The Ravens cannot defend passes thrown downfield.
The Dolphins find throwing downfield more terrifying than a circus clown in a dark alley with a butcher knife.
The Ravens' inability to stop downfield pass can be explained by a cornerback corps full of unknowns like Danny Gorrer and Anthony Levine; the sudden loss of lineman Haloti Ngata to a PED suspension will limit their ability to protect their secondary with their pass rush. The Dolphins' downfield agoraphobia may stem from the following play diagram, which shows that the team views the horizon 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage with a fear and wonder somewhere between the feelings of Geno Smith and medieval sailors.
How long to the point at which the Dolphins return to the postseason? If they can finally learn the definition of downfield passing in time to slip past the Ravens in the Wild Card tiebreaker chase, it could be a matter of weeks.
Prediction: Dolphins 26, Ravens 22
Colts at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts -3
Brian Hoyer will start for the Browns instead of Johnny Manziel.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
With Manziel out of the picture, this game's best story line is Trent Richardson's return to Cleveland.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
D'Qwell Jackson's return to Cleveland?
MEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
Despite the fact that both teams have winning records, this game will establish little, because the Colts have all but clinched the AFC South and the Browns are hopelessly mired in AFC North bean dip.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
So, how about we just pick the Colts to win and talk about someone genuinely interesting, like J.J. Watt?
HORAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!
Prediction: Colts 28, Browns 19
Texans at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans -5
Did you know that J.J. Watt is the first player in over 60 years to score three offensive touchdowns AND two defensive touchdowns in the same year? That he is the first player to score three offensive touchdowns, return a fumble for a touchdown and return an interception for a touchdown in the same season…which is roughly the same thing?
The floodgate of cherry-picked Watt statistics opened when he caught that meaningless touchdown at the end of the Titans massacre. Several defensive players of the last few decades have scored two offensive touchdowns in a season, including William Perry (1985) and Warren Sapp (1993). But the third touchdown pushed Watt into Mike Vrabel territory. Vrabel caught two touchdowns in 2004 and 2007, but he caught three in 2005. Vrabel also had an interception return touchdown in 2005, but not a fumble recovery.
Vrabel had 12.5 sacks in 2007 to go with his two receiving touchdowns, but he scored no defensive touchdowns, and he received no "Vrabel for MVP" consideration for an obvious reason: His quarterback was busy throwing most of his 50 touchdowns to the great receivers on an undefeated team. Defensive accomplishments stand out more when the defender is the only one accomplishing anything.
Watt is great. He is on pace for his second Defensive Player of the Year award, and the MVP talk is not completely silly until you take a look at Aaron Rodgers' stat line. But the whole "three offensive touchdowns, plus other accomplishments" angle is just a statistical parlor game, not an MVP argument.
Of course, since some joker scheduled two Texans-Jaguars games in December, Watt may soon be simultaneously breaking records held by Michael Strahan and Jerry Rice.
Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 13
Panthers at Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints -11
Cam Newton in the first quarters of games this year: 43-of-77 (55.8 percent complete), 458 yards (5.95 yards per attempt), one touchdown, two interceptions, six sacks, just two pass plays of 20-plus yards and 14 carries for only 40 yards.
Panthers first quarters largely consist of Newton dropping back behind his offensive line full of day laborers, staring down Kelvin Benjamin with an expression of fleeting hope, shrugging his shoulders when Benjamin cannot get open, bobbing around a bit in the flash-mob of a pocket and either taking a sack, throwing to a covered Benjamin anyway or dumping a three-yarder to a running back. Needless to say, the Panthers play from behind a lot.
Newton set a Panthers record by throwing an interception in his eighth consecutive game last week. Jake Delhomme held the previous record, of course, with two seven-game interception streaks. The second Delhomme seven-game streak started with his five-interception transfiguration against the Cardinals in the 2008 playoffs; he threw a total of 18 interceptions through the first half of 2009. Delhomme had Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad to throw to. Given Philly Brown and Jerricho Cotchery, and Delhomme might have destabilized the salary structure of NFC cornerbacks all by himself.
Ron Rivera gave Newton a vote of confidence this week, just as John Fox would have shoved his own body in a burst dyke to keep Delhomme from getting soggy. The key difference is that Delhomme was the main problem in 2009, while Newton is the only solution now, assuming four more games with the junior varsity do not turn him into a walking assemblage of injuries and bad habits.
This is the opponent that the Saints will beat to reach 6-7 and quiet the talk that the NFC South champions are undeserving of a playoff spot this season. In this division, you take your accomplishments where you can find them.
Prediction: Saints 31, Panthers 20
Jets at Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings -5.5
If the Jets are going to only throw 13 passes per game, none of them more than 20 yards downfield, why should they even have a quarterback? Marty Mornhinweg has never been shy about Wildcat plays: Bilal Powell, Jeremy Kerley and the kid who sets up the Gatorade table have all taken direct snaps many times in the last two years. Kerley rushed for 18 and 20 yards on two carries against the Dolphins, but of course his role was limited so Percy Harvin would not give coaches his I was happier in Seattle pout. Make Kerley the "quarterback," and the Jets can embrace the 1930s A-formation!
The pesky Vikings are almost ready for Prime Time: Their Week 15 matchup with the Lions has been flexed from 1 p.m. to 4:25 p.m.. Granted, the playoff-likely Lions are supposed to be the real draw, but the delayed kickoff will give Teddy Bridgewater, Everson Griffin and the gang the ultimate late-game honor of strutting their stuff for any viewers not watching Seahawks-49ers or Broncos-Chargers that Sunday.
Come to think of it, maybe the Vikings should get that game flexed back to 1 p.m.. And the Jets' A-formation Kerley Wildcat Express can be flexed until March.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Jets 6
Buccaneers at Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Lions -10
A mystery Santa sent goofy Christmas sweaters to the Lions defensive linemen. Xavier Proctor received a giant Santa-shaped onesie, rookie Caraun Reid got a "Santa Claws" sweater with a kitty on it and Andre Fluellen strode the locker room with the Bumble from Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer across his chest. The anonymous benefactor is believed to be Ndamukong Suh, who is known for his offbeat team-building activities but was unavailable for comment.
It's the feel-good locker room holiday story that sounds like it could also be one baby step away from the next bullying scandal. Wear the Santa onesie or else, rookie. Here's your diaper for when you are Baby New Year. I will add pink wings for Valentine's Day. Text me a picture of yourself wearing them to family parties, or else you will have to pick up the tab for the veteran's weekend in Cabo. Luckily, Suh is not really like that. To teammates.
The Buccaneers tried to create a holiday sweater tradition of their own. They were last seen tangled in an enormous ball of yarn.
Prediction: Lions 28, Buccaneers 13
49ers at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: 49ers -8
Trading head coaches is a little like swapping wives. It's possible. It can sometimes be a little bit of fun to imagine. But the squicky trust issues make it impractical in most cases. Who wants to trade draft picks for a head coach another team is so eager to get rid of? And just how eager a participant is the coach himself in this consummation? No one wants Jim Harbaugh lying still and thinking of Michigan. That's why normal couples get divorces when things don't work, and normal franchises simply fire their coaches.
The Raiders are not proud at all, and they could offer the 49ers an Indecent Proposal if it means an end to 52-0 blowouts by second-rate opponents. Jim can stay in his own home. Our draft picks are always really high, baby. We are right across the bay, so you can watch if you like. The worst part of a tawdry lifestyle (so I'm told) is the company you keep, and the 49ers should be leery of the strange bedfellows they will make by seeking a Harbaugh deal. A team can get a reputation.
Prediction: 49ers 28, Raiders 10
Giants at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even
With all other New York football topics too depressing to dwell upon—in his Monday teleconference, Tom Coughlin sounded like a defiant, dying tycoon trying to keep his sons from stealing the safe key from the chain around his neck—our nation's media epicenter leans desperately on Odell Beckham as a one-man fun-topic content generator. So we now know that Beckham made another spectacular one-handed catch in warmups and that he can kick trick-shot field goals. He also worked Antrel Rolle's side of the street by criticizing coaching decisions after the Jaguars loss. Beckham even dines with LeBron James, which is the closest an American can come to being knighted.
No way the Big Apple turns on this kid, folks. I'm guessing Beckham peaks with an awkward appearance beside Ryan Seacrest on New Year's Rockin' Eve, one-handed catching replica Times Square glitter balls between performances by Ariana Grande and the cast of Newsies. Then, an annoying reality show on E! titled Catchin' Up with Beckham, then several seasons of 70-catch seasons deemed "not good enough" by frustrated Giants fans until Jerry Jones trades two first-round picks for him in 2017.
The Titans had their own trick-catch specialist in Justin Hunter, but Hunter a) dropped as many balls as he caught, and b) lacerated a spleen in the Texans game and is lost for the year. That's right: A spleen got lacerated in last week's Titans game, but you heard nothing about it because J.J. Watt did not lacerate. The Titans emit the exact opposite of star power, which means this game broadcast may be preempted by Beckham's childhood home movies and few viewers will either notice or complain.
Prediction: Giants 24, Titans 21
Rams at Redskins
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Rams -2.5
(at midfield before the start of the game)
DAN SNYDER: Les Snead? Is that you? Of course it is! I would recognize that Rum Tum Tugger hairstyle anywhere. How is life in the Rams front office?
LES SNEAD: I am well, Daniel. Thank you for asking.
DAN SNYDER: That's great. Listen: I have been thinking it over and I have decided to let you take back that RG3 trade.
LES SNEAD: …What?
DAN SNYDER: I'm giving you a takeback, big guy! The Rams have a need at quarterback, so we will go ahead and let you have RG3. And we'll take Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Alex Ogletree, Stedman Bailey, Greg Robinson and Zac Stacy off your hands.
LES SNEAD: Let me get this straight: You want me to trade half of my team's young core back to you in exchange for a quarterback you ruined like a toy soldier on a barbecue?
DAN SNYDER: It's a great deal for the Rams! You don't have a quarterback of RG3's ability on the roster!
LES SNEAD: Perhaps not, but we have not spent two years dragging our quarterbacks through the streets behind a horse and buggy. Shaun Hill is a consummate professional, Austin Davis gave us all he had and Sam Bradford is pretty darn talented when healthy. We don't hate our quarterbacks the way your coaches hate yours.
DAN SNYDER: Fine, fine. Say…about Bradford. We'll give you first-round picks in 2015 and 2016, a second rounder in 2015, and a conditional fourth rounder in 2016, though you have to throw in Isaiah Pead.
LES SNEAD: Seriously? You want to go through this again?
DAN SNYDER: Of course! We need a quarterback!
LES SNEAD: In that case, Bradford's yours. And the worst part of this deal is that we will draft four more great players and still finish 7-9.
Prediction: Rams 20, Redskins 14
Falcons at Packers
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers -13
It's hard to take this game seriously as a battle of first-place teams in the NFC, especially after Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel surveyed his inside sources and quoted NFL scouts and personnel experts stating that the Falcons winning the AFC South would be "a joke." "If Green Bay doesn't torch them for 40, I'll be shocked," one insider told McGinn. "Atlanta's secondary is as bad as Philadelphia's secondary," one source said. Hey, Cary Williams and Nate Allen have feelings too! You don't have to be mean by comparing them to Robert Alford and Dwight Lowery!
One scout thinks the Lambeau weather will make a difference. "I just think the Falcons have notoriously struggled outside."
Actually, while the Falcons have a semi-pronounced home-road split, they are 5-1 under Mike Smith in outdoor games when the kickoff temperature was below 45 degrees (courtesy Pro Football Reference's Boxscore Finder).
It makes you wonder what else the experts might have overlooked. William Moore has returned at safety, for example, to sure up that Falcons secondary. The Falcons still rank last in the NFL in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, but they have been creeping back toward the pack after early season embarrassments by the Vikings and Bears. Some of the youngsters are starting to figure things out.
Picking an upset here would be taking things too far, and the Vegas action suggests that the public agrees with the experts (the line moved nearly three points toward the Packers during the week). But if the Falcons climb to .500 because their young defense starts to gel and the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones combo spearheads a still-dangerous offense, that would be a sign of progress, not a "joke."
The Panthers making the playoffs? That would be a joke.
Prediction: Packers 34, Falcons 24
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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