NFL Predictions Week 10: Expert Consensus Projections

It seems like only yesterday that the 2014 NFL season began, but the reality is we've already hit the month of November and Week 10.

Some things have gone according to plan, but there have been more than a few big surprises as well.

An Arizona Cardinals team tabbed by most to finish third in the NFC West has the league's best record at 7-1. A Tampa Bay Buccaneers team picked by some as a dark-horse playoff contender may actually be worse than its 1-7 record indicates.

It isn't easy to make predictions in a league where, more often than not, things don't follow the script, but that never stopped the intrepid Division Lead and National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report from trying.

With that in mind, here's how those hearty souls expect the upcoming week's slate to play out.

Biggest Upset

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Winner: Buffalo Bills (+2) over Kansas City Chiefs (5 votes)

Week 10 features a number of big tests for this year's most surprising teams across the NFL. The Cleveland Browns travel to Cincinnati in a battle with the Bengals for first place in the AFC North. The Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins meet in Motown in a showdown of squads who have exceeded expectations.

Then there's Buffalo, where the 5-3 Bills come out of their bye and face a red-hot Kansas City Chiefs team that's won three straight.

It's a matchup of two very similar teams. Both feature fearsome pass rushes. Both have quarterbacks who are much more than their "game manager" labels indicate.

Bleacher Report's Justin Neuman believes that the key to a Bills victory lies in making Kansas City signal-caller Alex Smith miserable:

"

If the Bills defense can make sure tackles and keep the Chiefs receivers off balance, it will put more pressure on Smith to take chances deep. That leads to more time spent in the pocket and more chances to bring Smith down. The Bills have been leaning on their defense all season, and they will have to do so again to grab the W against Kansas City.

"

A fistful of our writers apparently expect the Bills to do just that, enough to make Buffalo the Week 10 pick as Upset of the Week.

Even if it wouldn't be that much of an upset.

Others receiving votes: Miami Dolphins (+2) over Detroit Lions (3 votes), Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) over Dallas Cowboys (3 votes), New York Jets (+2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) over Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)

Note: NFL national lead writer Michael Schottey abstained.

Biggest Blowout

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Winner: Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (11 votes)

There are quite a few games on the Week 10 schedule that look to have the potential to get ugly quick. However, in the eyes of our voters, one contest stands head and shoulders above the rest.

Fresh off a thrashing at the hands of the New England Patriots, a seething Denver Broncos team travels to Oakland to take on its winless AFC West "rival."

It hasn't been much of a rivalry of late. The Broncos have won five in a row over the Raiders, with an average margin of victory of over 18 points per game.

Denver quarterback Peyton Manning has yet to lose to the Raiders since joining the Broncos, and AFC West lead writer Christopher Hansen doesn't see that changing on Sunday:

"

The Denver Broncos are understandably mad about the way they lost last Sunday's game in New England. If there is one thing a struggling defense doesn't want to hear, it's that quarterback Peyton Manning is ticked off. Over the last two seasons, the Broncos have scored an average of 39.5 points coming off a loss. The last time the Broncos lost was in Week 3, and they came out and scored 41 in a win against the now-7-1 Arizona Cardinals in their next game.

Combine the fact that the Broncos are one of the best teams in football coming off an embarrassing effort with an 0-8 Oakland Raiders team that hasn't won a game in almost a calendar year, and you have the recipe for a blowout. The Broncos have scored 14.5 more points per game than the Raiders and allowed 3.3 fewer points per game, which makes the current 12.5-point spread, via OddsShark, look generously skewed in the Raiders' favor.

The Broncos have won more games this year (six) than the Raiders have won in two calendar years (five). If it's not a blowout, a lot of people will be surprised.

"

Surprised is one way to put it. Shocked. Floored. Maybe blown away.

Others receiving votes: Seattle Seahawks over New York Giants (2 votes), Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans (2 votes), Pittsburgh Steelers over New York Jets (1 vote)

Higher Total: Denver First Downs or Oakland Points

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Yo, Peyton...you guys hiring?

Winner: Denver first downs (10 votes)

This is where we're at with the Oakland Raiders. Not only does our panel believe that the Denver Broncos will have more first downs than the Raiders will have points in their Week 10 meeting, but the vote wasn't even close.

However, AFC West lead writer Christopher Hansen was one of four pundits who sided with the Silver and Black—sort of:

"

The Broncos are averaging 23.0 first downs per game compared to the Raiders' 16.1 points per game. That's a pretty sizable difference, but ignores both the dynamics of the game and the way the Raiders have been playing over the last month. The Raiders are averaging 19.5 points per game over the last four games and the Broncos are averaging 22.3 first downs in games on the road—cutting the difference by 59 percent.

The Raiders have been competitive in their last two home games, which would mean they are limiting big plays and could force the Broncos to sustain drives to score. If the rout is on like it was in both the games between these teams last year, the Broncos probably won't be racking up as many first downs as points, but it could be close. The Broncos needed 59 total first downs—12 less than points scored—to beat the Raiders twice by an average margin of 18 points in 2013.

The other factor is the number of points the Raiders score. In six of eight games this season, the Raiders have failed to score more than 14 points. In the other two games, they've averaged just 26 points per game. The Broncos have averaged 26.5 first downs over the last two games. The safer bet is probably Broncos first downs, but it's possible it's a blowout and the Raiders get garbage-time points.

"

The 2014 Oakland Raiders—where any positive statement comes with more asterisks than a Barry Bonds baseball card.

Biggest Mismatch

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Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers passing game vs. New York Jets secondary (6 votes)

In a week replete with mismatches (on paper, anyway), there's bound to be no shortage of candidates for this week's biggest one.

For NFL national lead writer Ty Schalter, it's a deep and talented Green Bay Packers receiving corps against a reeling Chicago Bears secondary:

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The Bears secondary was single-handedly blown out of its own stadium by Rob Gronkowski in Week 8; Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Aaron Rodgers and Co. will surely do the same.

"

NFC East lead Writer Brad Gagnon, on the other hand, feels that the Carolina Panthers will have their hands full with the Philadelphia Eagles pass rush Monday night. "The Eagles have 20 sacks in their last five games," Gagnon said, "and Carolina's tackles are terrible."

Ditto for Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle Geno Atkins and the Cleveland Browns, according to NFC South lead writer Brent Sobleski:

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Since Alex Mack's injury, the Cleveland Browns offensive interior—particularly at center and right guard—has been completely overwhelmed. The team initially slid John Greco to center and placed veteran Paul McQuistan at right guard, and neither proved effective in those roles. The team readjusted a week later by moving Greco back to right guard and placing Nick McDonald at center. McDonald struggled during his first start in two years, and it got even worse last weekend against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay defensive tackle Gerald McCoy absolutely dominated the entire game, and McDonald was seen on his backside more times than not. The Bengals' Geno Atkins is a similar talent to McCoy as arguably the best two defensive tackles in the game. Atkins' first-step quickness and ability to disrupt the backfield against the Browns' ramshackle offensive interior is yet another nightmare for Cleveland.

"

However, all those mismatches take a back seat (in the eyes of our voters) to the Big Apple, where a New York Jets secondary that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL must face white-hot quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the league's leading receiver in Antonio Brown.

Others receiving votes: Denver Broncos offense vs. Oakland Raiders defense (2 votes), Packers receivers vs. Bears secondary (2 votes), Eagles pass rush vs. Panthers offensive line (1 vote), Kansas City Chiefs pass rush vs. Buffalo Bills offensive line (1 vote), Geno Atkins vs. Browns (1 vote), Denver Broncos pass rush vs. Oakland Raiders (1 vote), Marshawn Lynch vs. New York Giants run defense (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

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Winner: Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 votes)

There are sleepers, there are sleepers and then there are SLEEPERS.

Tampa's Josh McCown is about three steps the other side of that, somewhere between "coma" and "are you sure he's not dead?"

When we last saw McCown under center, the Buccaneers were being annihilated by the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. McCown gave way in that 56-14 Week 3 beatdown to Mike Glennon, but with Glennon proving no more effective than McCown, head coach Lovie Smith has reversed course, reinstalling McCown as the starter ahead of this week's rematch.

And yet, NFC East lead writer Brad Gagnon is among a group of five writers who expect McCown to find success Sunday against a terrible Falcons defense.

"McCown gets to make his return to the lineup against a Falcons defense that ranks dead last in football at Football Outsiders and is giving up a league-high 8.4 yards per pass attempt," Gagnon wrote.

Hey, you can't accuse them of taking the easy way out this week, that's for sure.

Others receiving votes: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (3 votes), Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (2 votes), Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote), Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Austin Davis, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee Titans (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford or Ryan Tannehill

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Winner: Matthew Stafford (12 votes)

At the beginning of the season, this question would have gotten you laughed at. After all, Matthew Stafford has a 5,000-yard-passing season under his belt and wide receiver Calvin Johnson to throw to. Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, very nearly lost his job as the starter for the Miami Dolphins just a few weeks ago.

My, how times have changed.

The Lions have been winning with defense, largely due to injuries to Johnson and Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been smoking-hot of late, with a passer rating of well over 100 during Miami's three-game winning streak.

Tannehill has finally shown some of the promise that led the Dolphins to draft him in the first round in 2012, but the overwhelming majority of our panel believes that it will be Stafford who wins the yardage battle between the two Sunday in Detroit.

The reason why?

It might have something to do with what Johnson told ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein.

"Yeah," Johnson said laughing, when asked if he will play Sunday against Miami.

Bet the Dolphins don't think it's funny.

More Turnovers: Jay Cutler or Mark Sanchez

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Winner: Jay Cutler (9 votes)

There's one constant, immutable truth in an NFL that is constantly evolving: Turnovers are the kiss of death.

If you can't take care of the football, you're not going to win—plain and simple.

Want a reason why the Chicago Bears are 3-5? Try 15 giveaways in eight games and a turnover differential that ranks 23rd in the NFL.

As Steve Rosenbloom of the Chicago Tribune reports, many of those turnovers have come courtesy of quarterback Jay Cutler:

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Cutler is tied for sixth in the NFL with eight interceptions, most of them killer. Cutler is hitting his career average of about one pick per game, which is pretty amazing considering Cutler’s improved 67.2 completion percentage. The Bears wanted a more efficient passer, and they got a guy who has become more efficient at making the game-turning mistake.

But you know what’s really aggravating about Cutler’s sloppy idea of ball security?

The fumbles, that’s what. The sack-strips, or in the case of the Patriots’ Seal Team 6 assault in the last two minutes of the first half two Sundays ago, the sack-strip-scoop-and-score.

An interception at least goes downfield. Sure, it can be run back, and that has certainly happened with Cutler. But the sack-strip is worse because everything happens closer to the Bears’ end zone while the skilled players have run the other way, leaving some of the slowest guys on the Bears closest to the loose ball.

A quarterback fumble seems exponentially worse than a pick, and Cutler is the worst in the league when it comes to ball security in the pocket. The worst.

"

How bad has it gotten for Cutler in 2014? Well, our voters have less faith in Cutler's ability to take care of the rock Sunday night against the Packers than Mark Sanchez's ability to do the same Monday against Carolina.

The same Mark Sanchez who averaged 17 interceptions a season during four years as the starter for the New York Jets.

The same Mark Sanchez who did this.

Yeah, he's never living that down. Ever.

Sleeper RB Performance

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Winner: Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (6 votes)

At the rate Denard Robinson is picking up yardage on the ground, his membership to Sleeper Backs of America is going to be revoked soon.

What? It's real. Join and you get five percent off at the Sleep Number store.

Over his last three games, the converted college quarterback has carried the ball 57 times for 329 yards, at a robust average of 5.8 yards a carry.

As Jason Bailey of Grantland reports, Robinson has grown by leaps and bounds as a ball-carrier in 2014:

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It’s not hard to see Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson — the dreadlocks sticking out the back of Robinson’s helmet help — when watching Robinson aim directly for his offensive tackles, ready to slipstream into the open field. Because as impressive as Robinson’s 4.43 speed is, it’s his willingness to wait for blocks that really has him succeeding. Like an ambulance with sirens blaring, Robinson can run red lights, but he’s found that stopping briefly at intersections helps prevent disaster, too. This season, he has zero fumbles.

"

NFL national lead writer Ty Schalter expects that growth to continue Sunday in London against a Dallas Cowboys squad whose defense is starting to spring some leaks after playing over its head in the season's first half:

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The Dallas Cowboys have the 26th-worst per-carry run defense, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, allowing 4.6 yards per attempt. One-time ‘OW’ Denard Robinson has finally found his calling as an ‘RB’ in Jacksonville, and he’s got the talent to gash the Cowboys for a few big runs.

"

Schalter's far from alone in his assertion, making "Shoelace" our panel's pick as this week's breakout back.

Others receiving votes: Terrance West, Cleveland Browns (4 votes), Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (2 votes), LeGarrette Blount, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote), Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (1 vote)

Sleeper WR Performance

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Winner: Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (3 votes)

Our panel's picks for this week's breakout wide receiver were all over the place. Nine wideouts received at least one vote. Five received more than one.

However, it was a newcomer to the NFL who squeaked out the "win."

Granted, Jordan Matthews of the Philadelphia Eagles hasn't exactly been turning heads of late. Over the past three weeks, the Eagles' second-round pick in last May's draft has hauled in 13 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown.

Not bad by any stretch, but not great, either.

However, with Mark Sanchez taking over at quarterback for the Eagles, NFL national lead writer Mike Tanier predicts that will change:

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There was a running joke among the Eagles media during the preseason about just how often Mark Sanchez threw to Matthews during second-team practice reps. It often felt like Matthews was the only receiver out there when Sanchez was practicing and that Sanchez figured if he completed enough five-yard drags in seven-on-seven drills, the Eagles would be forced to keep him. Sanchez is the starter now, of course, and Matthews already has a fairly large offensive role. Look for the same kind of bump Jarius Wright received when the Vikings elevated Teddy Bridgewater.

"

And there you go.

Others receiving votes: Eric Decker, New York Jets (2 votes), Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes), Louis Murphy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes), Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (2 votes), Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Miles Austin, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Taylor Gabriel, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

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Winner: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders (4 votes)

Just like at wide receiver, there were more than a few candidates for this week's surprise at the tight-end spot—six, in fact.

NFC West lead writer Sean Tomlinson went the rookie route, with Richard Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers:

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Tight-end sleeper: This is reaching deep and is a pick that could admittedly go beyond sleeper and well into hibernating-slumber status. But Richard Rodgers is the future at tight end for the Packers, or at least that's what they're hoping. He's coming off a breakout performance in Week 8 (four receptions, 58 yards), and now he'll face a Bears defense giving up 82.6 receiving yards per game to tight ends.

"

However, the leading vote-getter is one of the few bright spots in another long, dark year in Oakland.

Over the last two games, second-year pro Mychal Rivera has held a coming-out party of sorts, reeling in 15 catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns.

Eight of those grabs came last week against Seattle, when Rivera was targeted a team-high 11 times by quarterback Derek Carr.

He may not be stretching the field, but with the Raiders set to go up against a formidable Denver pass rush, Carr's going to be leaning heavily on his safety valve.

Others receiving votes: Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (3 votes), Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 votes), Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (2 votes), Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

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Winner: Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (4 votes)

The vote for Best Defensive Performance has been cast into chaos.

Of course, that's what happens when the nine-time defending winner (J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans) takes the week off.

Who does he think he is?

NFC West lead writer Sean Tomlinson went the rookie route again, selecting defensive tackle Aaron Donald of the St. Louis Rams:

"

Aaron Donald's incredible burst at the snap has led to two sacks over the Rams' last three games and nine defensive stops. Combined with Robert Quinn firing off the edge, he'll force the Cardinals into a short passing game, making sure Carson Palmer releases the ball quickly.

"

Five other players garnered at least one vote, but Week 10's leading vote-getter was the player who has had more success getting to the quarterback than any player in the NFL this year.

Outside linebacker Justin Houston of the Kansas City Chiefs leads the NFL with 12 sacks. As Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star reports, it hasn't just been Houston's pass-rushing acumen that's been turning heads in 2014:

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It’s not just the sacks, either. Houston is also playing the run better than ever, and on the rare times he’s asked to drop back in coverage he has been good there, too. Some of this, surely, is a wildly talented 25-year-old entering his prime in his fourth NFL season.

"

I'd wager Houston's expiring contract might have something to do with it, too.

Others receiving votes: DeMarcus Ware, DE, Denver Broncos (3 votes), Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes), Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes), Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams (2 votes), Trent Cole, OLB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions (1 vote)

Over/Under: 1.5 Sacks for Rams DE Robert Quinn

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Winner: Under (14 votes)

It's something of a surprise that St. Louis Rams defensive end Robert Quinn didn't garner a single vote for Best Defensive Performance this week.

After a sluggish start to the season, Quinn has been on quite the tear of late. The fourth-year pro, who racked up 19 sacks a year ago, failed to record a sack in his first five games, only to reel off five over the past three weeks.

Quinn told R.B. Fallstrom of The Associated Press, via The Macon Telegraph, that breaking out of the slump was simply a matter of staying after it.

"You've got to stay committed," Quinn said. "Of course, it gets frustrating when you're not getting back there, but there's nothing you can do except continue to work your craft. Finally, finally, things are breaking loose for us."

Quinn may be on quite the rip where terrorizing quarterbacks is concerned, but against a vastly improved Arizona offensive line, only a single voter forecast that Quinn will reach Carson Palmer multiple times Sunday.

That voter was me, which means there's zero chance it will actually happen.

Sorry, Rob. My bad.

Flop of the Week

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Winner: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (3 votes)

We're closing this week's predictions with a new category, one inspired by the darker side of the human psyche.

"Flop of the Week."

Apparently, at least two of our voters are about accentuating the positive, choosing not to submit votes in the category at all.

For NFL national lead writer Ty Schalter, "flop" is a relative word in Week 10. “Ben Roethlisberger is going to ‘flop,’ i.e. disappoint," Schalter said, "just because he can’t possibly throw six touchdowns three games in a row.”

NFC East lead writer Brad Gagnon sees one of the NFL's hottest running backs over the season's first half cooling down in Week 10. "The Jets are giving up just 3.5 yards per carry," Gagnon wrote, "and it appears Le'Veon Bell is hitting a wall."

The leading vote-getter in the category no one wants to win, however, was Kansas City Chiefs tailback Jamaal Charles.

It's been a slow season for Charles, who has battled injuries. The seventh-year veteran is on pace to record fewer than 1,000 rushing yards for the first time since 2011, when he lost almost the entire season to an ACL tear. Charles has yet to top 100 yards on the ground in a game this year.

Add in a matchup with a Buffalo Bills team that ranks eighth in the NFL in run defense in 2014, and the deck's stacked against Charles breaking out of his funk in Week 10.

Others receiving votes: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes), Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes), Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins (2 votes), Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (1 vote), Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)