2015 NFL Mock Draft: Matt Miller's Quarter-Season Predictions
You may have clicked on this article thinking it's way too early for a 2015 mock draft, and it might be. But if you're a current fan of the winless Oakland Raiders or Jacksonville Jaguars, you're probably already looking ahead to the upcoming draft. This is for you.
The NFL season is four weeks gone, and that means we can start looking at the current draft order (based on win/loss record) and marrying the order with team needs and draftable player talent. There are underclassmen listed here who may decide to return to school, but in late September, these are the players most likely to enter the 2015 draft instead of heading back to college for another season (or two).
Predicting what will happen in late April 2015 is impossible, but this is a look at what positions teams are looking to fill, what talent is expected to be on the board and how the class could unfold seven months from now.
1. Oakland Raiders
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The Pick: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
The offensive tackle factory at Texas A&M has churned out another stud prospect. It was Luke Joeckel in 2013 and Jake Matthews in 2014. Now it's Cedric Ogbuehi.
Ogbuehi isn't my top-ranked player in the draft—that's Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota—but he fits a huge need for the Oakland Raiders at left tackle after the team let Jared Veldheer walk in free agency before the 2014 season. With rookie quarterback Derek Carr playing well, it would be a surprise at this point for the team to draft his replacement, so Ogbuehi makes sense from many angles in Oakland.
With exceptional length and athleticism, Ogbuehi is exactly what NFL teams want at left tackle.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Pick: DL Leonard Williams, USC
The Jacksonville Jaguars grabbed their left tackle with the No. 2 pick in 2013 (Luke Joeckel) and their quarterback with the No. 3 pick in 2014 (Blake Bortles). Now they can start building a defense worthy of Gus Bradley.
Leonard Williams is an athletic marvel along the defensive line, showing the athleticism to play left end in a 3-4 defense, 3-technique in a traditional 4-3 or as a moving part all over the line if the Jaguars want to mimic their friends in Seattle on defense. He's been a bit banged up at times, but Williams' potential is crazy good.
With the pieces in place for the young Jacksonville offense to flourish, it's time to start building on defense. Williams can be the Jaguars' foundation there.
3. Tennessee Titans
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The Pick: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
The No. 1 overall player falls to pick No. 3, but that happens when there isn't a clear-cut need at quarterback early in the draft. In the real draft, it's very likely that someone (perhaps Tennessee) would trade up to get Mariota, but in this no-trades mock, he's here for the Titans.
The Jake Locker era in Tennessee has not been a productive one. The team has struggled to get consistency from him when he's healthy, and on top of that, he's not been consistently healthy. It's time for head coach Ken Whisenhunt to pick his own starting quarterback, and Mariota is a great fit for him.
Mariota is the ideal NFL quarterback for today's game. He's smart, patient, poised in the pocket, athletic enough to be a scrambler and is most importantly accurate from inside and outside the pocket. He's the type of player Whisenhunt can build a franchise around.
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4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Pick: QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
Second-year quarterback Mike Glennon has a 1-0 record as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' starter this year, but it's too early to have faith in him moving forward as the team's answer at quarterback. That's especially true if they're picking in the top five of the 2015 draft.
Given this very early look at the draft, if Tampa Bay is picking here with both Jameis Winston and Brett Hundley available, the pick will be a quarterback.
Winston is a good fit in Tampa, where the offensive line, running game and receiving corps are already high-caliber. He's young, athletic, smart and has the arm strength to utilize the big receivers already in place. If you want a quarterback who can stand in the pocket and deliver strikes, Winston is your guy.
5. New York Jets
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The Pick: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
The need for a top-flight cornerback in New York is big with four weeks of the 2014 season gone. Former first-round pick Dee Milliner struggled in 2013 and has been hurt to start his second season, leaving the team with Antonio Allen (a converted safety) and Darrin Walls at cornerback.
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu isn't the biggest guy—right around 5'10"—but he plays the position bigger, thanks to good length, awesome tenacity and the instincts to attack the ball. And with long arms and a good vertical, he can attack bigger receivers without losing the agility that many tall cornerbacks lack.
The Jets, especially if Rex Ryan is still the head coach, could plug Ekpre-Olomu in opposite Milliner and have a viable one-two punch at cornerback for the first time since Darrelle Revis left town.
6. New Orleans Saints
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The Pick: OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
The New Orleans Saints have an All-Pro cast at safety, a Hall of Fame quarterback, dynamic options at running back and wide receiver and the league's best tight end. So why are they picking No. 6 overall?
The lack of pass rush from Rob Ryan's defense has been maddening, and you can only scheme so much to cover up a lack of talent. Junior Galette had a great year in 2013, but the Saints simply need more talent—and have more since transitioning to a 3-4 defense.
Clemson's Vic Beasley looked like a top-15 pick in the 2014 draft, but he opted to return to college. He's been a terror for offenses this fall, showing the speed, anticipation and length needed to threaten the edge. He's also a very smart pass-rusher and doesn't let his leverage or control go when he's in pursuit.
Put Beasley up behind Cameron Jordan and let the Saints go after the quarterback. That's what New Orleans is badly missing this season
7. Washington
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The Pick: SS Landon Collins, Alabama
The last time Daniel Snyder drafted a hard-hitting, super-fast safety who wore No. 26 in college, it ended up as a great pick for the franchise. That was Sean Taylor, the former Miami Hurricanes safety chosen fifth overall in 2004.
In selecting Collins, Washington gets another big, fast, mean player to roam the defensive backfield. And while Collins doesn't have Taylor's ball-hawking skills and isn't quite as oversized as the 6'2", 220-pound Taylor was, he's still an impressive athlete at 6'0", 216 pounds, and with what I'm told is a sub-4.4-second 40-yard-dash.
That's the type of playmaker missing from the Washington defense.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
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The Pick: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
The Kansas City Chiefs have a young offense with a legitimate star in Jamaal Charles and potential studs such as Travis Kelce and Knile Davis at the skill positions. But what Andy Reid's team lacks is what he had for so long in Philadelphia—quality receivers.
Amari Cooper is, without a doubt, the best wide receiver in college football. He's also the best receiver prospect in the 2015 draft class and should be a very early pick in Round 1. With his explosive ability in space, strong hands and experience as a route-runner, Cooper is a can't-miss pickup in the Kansas City offense.
The Chiefs may be tempted by cornerbacks here, but wide receiver is absolutely the way to go.
9. Cleveland Browns
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The Pick: OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
With their first of two picks in Round 1—thank you, Buffalo—the Cleveland Browns can afford to draft the best player available. That also fits what they've done in previous drafts given the talent on this roster.
Right now, the Browns have a young quarterback (Johnny Manziel), a good duo at running back, a returning Josh Gordon, a good tight end in Jordan Cameron and are set on the offensive line. That rules out spending pick No. 9 on what would be a reach for another wide receiver.
Looking at the defense, the team picked up Justin Gilbert with their first pick in 2014 and like their cornerback duo with Gilbert and Joe Haden. Where the Browns can afford to get better, or deeper, is at outside linebacker.
Even with Paul Kruger, Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo on the roster, the team can always do better in the pass-rush department—especially with Sheard hitting free agency after the season and Mingo still struggling to live up to his draft positioning.
Gregory is longer, stronger and more sound on every down than Mingo was coming out of LSU and could offset the potential loss of Sheard with some youth and cheaper labor for the next four (or five) years.
10. St. Louis Rams
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The Pick: QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
The St. Louis Rams can officially put an end to the Sam Bradford era by picking Brett Hundley in 2015.
Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, has struggled with injuries, inconsistency and constant changes at offensive coordinator. Excuses aside, Bradford simply didn't produce when he needed to, and a change at quarterback is needed with his injury and contract running out after the 2015 season.
Enter Hundley. The big, athletic UCLA quarterback has the arm talent and movement skills to give Jeff Fisher the dual-threat passer he needs. Hundley is a bit raw, but he has all the tools (mental and physical) to be a legitimate franchise quarterback.
11. Miami Dolphins
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The Pick: OLB Shaq Thompson, Washington
The Miami Dolphins have serious questions surrounding the future of the franchise, but one area where they can immediately improve is at linebacker. And Washington dual-threat Shaq Thompson is tailor-made for the team's 4-3 defense.
Thompson, who also plays running back and has lined up at safety, is an elite-level athlete with unreal potential. And unlike Dion Jordan, Thompson has the skills right now to be a difference-maker on defense.
He does bring exciting upside, but in all three areas of the game (coverage, rushing the passer, stopping the run), Thompson is ready to come in and contribute.
12. Minnesota Vikings
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The Pick: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
No Adrian Peterson? No problem if Todd Gurley is on the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have a need at running back due to Peterson's legal issues, and as good as Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon have looked, neither offers what Gurley does. Right now the Vikings have a power back (Asiata) and a speed back (McKinnon), but Gurley is both and then some.
At 6'1" and over 230 pounds, Gurley is a blur in the open field and a bulldozer when confronted by a defender. Some will compare him to Peterson, but he's faster in the open field. Same for comparisons to Marshawn Lynch. Gurley is closer to what Shaun Alexander and Steven Jackson were in college, but he's even more impressive.
Fans of the Vikings may not love the idea of a running back in Round 1, but Gurley will be a difference-maker on offense with Teddy Bridgewater and Cordarrelle Patterson.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Pick: OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa
There is a laundry list of issues plaguing the Pittsburgh Steelers right now, but their lack of talent along the offensive line continues to be a thorn in the side of the offense. To fix that, general manager Kevin Colbert must stop drafting defenders and finally spend a first-rounder on a tackle.
Brandon Scherff is yet another big, athletic, talented tackle from Iowa. And if it seems like top-tier offensive linemen come off the assembly line in Iowa City, they kind of do. But Scherff is special in that his athleticism and potential make him a better player for the NFL. He's not super long for a left tackle, but he is similar in size to a Joe Thomas or Tyron Smith at 6'5". He's also insanely athletic and strong.
The Steelers need to nail the 2015 draft to start competing in the AFC North again, and picking Scherff gets them off to a great start.
14. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo)
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The Pick: WR Devin Funchess, Michigan
The Buffalo Bills traded up in the 2014 draft for Sammy Watkins, and the Cleveland Browns took their 2015 first-round pick in exchange. And just like the Bills used Cleveland's pick to draft a wide receiver, the Browns should return the favor one year later.
Devin Funchess lining up opposite Josh Gordon, Andrew Hawkins and Jordan Cameron is exactly what Johnny Manziel needs in Cleveland for the 2015 season. Funchess, a former tight end, has the size and length that will remind folks of Alshon Jeffery or Kelvin Benjamin when he gets into the open field. You won't get amazing stats from him on a terrible Michigan team, but Funchess is a legit top-15 prospect.
The Browns with Funchess would have an ideal young nucleus to build around on offense—and the type of jump-ball receiver Manziel loved at Texas A&M.
15. Indianapolis Colts
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The Pick: DL Michael Bennett, Ohio State
The Indianapolis Colts are winning thanks to Andrew Luck and the offense, but to become a true Super Bowl contender, they need to address the defense.
Michael Bennett isn't your ideal 3-4 defensive end body at 6'2" and 288 pounds, but his strength and instincts make him a versatile defender with the skill set to play in any defensive scheme. And in today's NFL, most 3-4 teams slide to a four-man front on passing downs. In that scenario, Bennett could play 3-technique and use his quickness and leverage skills to attack the backfield.
With no clear-cut options at safety or cornerback here for the Colts, grabbing a top-10-ranked defensive lineman and working him into the lineup is a smart grab for the Colts.
16. Chicago Bears
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The Pick: CB Marcus Peters, Washington
The Chicago Bears used their first-round pick in 2014 on cornerback Kyle Fuller, and he's paid immediate dividends for them with Charles Tillman injured. Facing an aging Tim Jennings on the other side of the field, it makes sense for general manager Phil Emery to dip back into the cornerback market in 2015 too.
Marcus Peters can be brash and loud, but he can also be dominant against top-tier receivers. His size, length, speed and overall skill set make him an ideal starting outside cornerback in the NFL. He's big enough to go against the taller, thicker wide receiver, but he shows the quickness to play in space against faster players. Much like former Husky Desmond Trufant, Peters can flat-out play.
The Bears have needs at linebacker and safety, but plugging in another top-tier cornerback gives this defense a true strength when facing three very good quarterbacks in the NFC North.
17. Atlanta Falcons
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The Pick: OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia
The Atlanta Falcons may have needs along the offensive line, defensive line and at safety heading into next year, but no need is bigger than the one at outside linebacker.
The move to a 3-4 defense before the 2014 season came with no additions at pass-rusher—and that's kind of important to have in a defense that requires edge-rushers. The Falcons have none, though, and really can't even count on existing players developing into starters. No, they need to draft here and draft well.
Redshirt sophomore Leonard Floyd wouldn't have to move far to become the Falcons' starting outside linebacker. He brings the size and speed combination that Mike Nolan needs so badly in his defense right now, and he's only a short drive away in Athens.
18. Carolina Panthers
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The Pick: WR Sammie Coates, Auburn
The Carolina Panthers gambled on letting Steve Smith leave for Baltimore, while drafting the raw, but talented, Kelvin Benjamin in the first round last year. So far, Benjamin is playing very well, but the team still needs help at wide receiver opposite him.
You could say that the Panthers need help in a lot of places, but needs along the offensive line and in the secondary aren't fits with the current board at pick No. 18. What they can do is add a speedy, smart receiver to work opposite the big power forward Benjamin.
Coates' speed and open-field moves will give quarterback Cam Newton that underneath target he lacks right now, and it will give the Panthers another matchup nightmare for defenses to worry about.
19. Green Bay Packers
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The Pick: DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor
The Green Bay Packers could spend every pick in the 2015 draft on defense, and no one would have room to complain. That's how bad Dom Capers' defense looks right now, and unless there are star players hiding on the practice squad, the team can afford to add talent at every position group on the defense.
Big Shawn Oakman has power, length and surprising agility for a 6'9", 280-pound defensive lineman. And in the Packers' 3-4 defense, he has the perfect makeup to play 5-technique defensive end along the three-man front.
Oakman may never be an elite pass-rusher, but he has the three-down tools to be an impact defender on a defense that desperately needs a spark.
20. San Francisco 49ers
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The Pick: CB P.J. Williams, Florida State
The San Francisco 49ers need a quick infusion of talent at cornerback after spending back-to-back first-round picks on safeties Eric Reid (2013) and Jimmie Ward (2014) to replace departing free agents.
Florida State cornerback P.J. Williams is exactly what the 49ers need. He's long—something general manager Trent Baalke loves—fast, instinctive and has the talent to match up in man coverage. Williams is similar in many ways to Kyle Fuller (the Bears' first-round pick from Virginia Tech) in that he has the length, hands and vision to step in and become a turnover machine against NFL quarterbacks who threaten him early.
Williams can't fix all of the 49ers' problems, but with the two young safeties alongside him, the team would have a bright future in the secondary behind a front seven that is still terrifying for offenses when healthy.
21. New York Giants
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The Pick: OT Ty Sambrailo, Colorado State
Left tackle William Beatty is playing much better than many expected through four weeks, but his past play indicates this surprising stretch could be a facade. If Beatty goes back to struggling, the New York Giants must invest a first-rounder in protecting Eli Manning's blind side.
Colorado State tackle Ty Sambrailo isn't a player you hear talked about much in a talented senior class of tackles, but he belongs in the Round 1 discussion. For those who haven't seen Sambrailo, imagine Taylor Lewan with a better finishing skill set and fewer question marks off the field. Lewan went in the top 10 last year, and Sambrailo has similar talents and upside.
With the Giants going to a bigger offensive line this year, the 315-pound Sambrailo is an easy pick at left tackle if he's available.
22. Denver Broncos
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The Pick: DT Eddie Goldman, Florida State
On a Florida State defense loaded with future NFL starters, defensive tackle Eddie Goldman doesn't get much recognition. That should change, though, as more people see the junior stud. If he's on the board when the Denver Broncos pick, it should be an easy decision.
Goldman is an ideal pass-rusher from the defensive tackle position and would be a perfect complement to nose tackle Terrance Knighton in the middle of the defense. Former first-rounder Sylvester Williams hasn't been terrible, but he also hasn't been great for the team. Goldman can be.
With Peyton Manning continuing to defy Father Time, the Broncos may not feel the pressure to start bulking up on defense, but John Elway knows it's smart to prepare today for tomorrow.
23. New England Patriots
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The Pick: DE Mario Edwards, Florida State
It's back-to-back picks from Florida State, but the defense is that good. And the New England Patriots need the help up front.
Sure, a wide receiver would be great here, but the Patriots can't afford to reach for a player in Round 1 (even in fictional mock drafts). Instead, staying pat and drafting an impact player on either side of the ball makes the most sense for a team that's too often jumping all over the board in an attempt to maximize value. Stay here, draft a stud and improve the defense.
Edwards is exactly what Bill Belichick wanted in a defensive lineman five years ago. He's built like Richard Seymour and has the skill set to play either defensive end or defensive tackle and has even played standing up as a pass-rusher at times.
The temptation to trade out or reach for a player may be great here, but the best move for New England is to simply make a value pick.
24. Seattle Seahawks
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The Pick: DE Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State
It's unlikely that the Seattle Seahawks will be drafting at No. 24 overall unless they trade up for the pick, but given today's draft order, that's where they end up. And it's a good thing, because they can draft Michigan State pass-rusher Shilique Calhoun.
You might look at the Seahawks and think they don't need another defensive end, but what does this team need? General manager John Schneider has done an amazing job loading the cupboard for head coach Pete Carroll, and they're set up well for 2015 and beyond. But pass-rushers are always a smart investment, especially when they can stand up or rush from a three-point stance like Calhoun.
The team wanted Bruce Irvin to be more of a pass-rusher than he's become, and that's where Calhoun fits in this defense. Move him around, use that rare athleticism and let him attack.
25. Houston Texans
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The Pick: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State
The Houston Texans have been a surprise with their 3-1 start, but this is still a team with uncertainty at quarterback now and heading into the future. Apologies to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage in advance.
Michigan State's Connor Cook fits what head coach Bill O'Brien has liked at quarterback in the past and would seem to be a great fit in this offense. He can operate from the pocket, has the arm strength to drive the ball deep and is the big, strong, solid build that O'Brien has put on the rosters he's worked on.
Cook, just a redshirt junior, isn't a lock to enter the 2015 draft, but would project as a mid- to late first-round pick at this point.
26. San Diego Chargers
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The Pick: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
The San Diego Chargers just might be the best team in the NFL, but to sustain that success, the depth (or lack of depth) at running back will be tested. With Ryan Mathews an annual visitor to the injury report, investing in a starting back makes a lot of sense for the Chargers.
Melvin Gordon will draw a lot of Jamaal Charles comparisons, and that goes deeper than the No. 25 on their jerseys and their dreadlocks. Gordon has breakaway speed, is a good receiver out of the backfield and runs with that jittery start-and-stop that makes Charles so difficult to take down.
The Chargers know how difficult a back like Charles is to stop—they face him twice a year—and would no doubt love to have their own version behind Philip Rivers.
27. Dallas Cowboys
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The Pick: DE Dante Fowler, Florida
The Dallas Cowboys are winning with explosive offensive plays and a defense that's seriously overachieving. That may continue, but there is no overlooking the lack of talent in that defensive front seven.
Getting a healthy DeMarcus Lawrence back in 2015 will help at defensive end, but the team needs more than just that addition. And help isn't coming in free agency with that salary-cap situation in Dallas. Instead, Jerry and Stephen Jones must do what they did in rebuilding the offensive line—draft well.
Dante Fowler is the perfect fit for a right defensive end in this system. He's big enough to handle blockers in the run game, but he's explosive enough off the ball to get into the backfield and rush the passer. With Fowler and Lawrence flanking the defense, coordinator Rod Marinelli can have all kinds of fun.
28. Baltimore Ravens
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The Pick: RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
Ray Rice is gone. Bernard Pierce hasn't shown anything. The Baltimore Ravens need a running back.
Yes, Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro are on the roster, but the Ravens need a running back who scares defenses. An offense built around zone runs and play action needs more than Justin Forsett banging between the tackles, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak has been a star in finding running backs.
He'll love Ameer Abdullah.
The Nebraska running back has balance, strength and speed to turn the corner and make big plays happen. He's not just an athlete running by directional school talent, though; Abdullah has the vision to see holes and read blockers. He could thrive in this Baltimore system.
29. Detroit Lions
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The Pick: WR Nelson Agholor, USC
The Detroit Lions may seem like an odd team to pick up a wide receiver at the end of Round 1. But with no safeties of value on the board, grabbing Nelson Agholor to round out the receiving corps is a good pick for Jim Caldwell's offense.
Agholor teamed up with Calvin Johnson (who is really only a deep threat outside of the red zone) and Golden Tate (a star underneath) gives the Lions a depth chart at receiver that can attack every aspect of the field. It also pulls bracket coverage off of Johnson and makes defenses respect the offense 11-versus-11. With Eric Ebron and Reggie Bush also on the field, that's going to be a problem for most NFL defenses.
The Lions do have other needs, but when you're looking at value, current or future need and available talent, this is a smart pick.
30. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Pick: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State
If you have watched the Philadelphia Eagles play at all this year, you know that Cary Williams is not getting the job done at cornerback. He's the 93rd-ranked corner (out of 100) through the first quarter of the season, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). It also doesn't help his case that he says practices are too hard under Chip Kelly.
The Eagles need a long, physical cornerback with the athletic skill set to play in man coverage and truly defend the deep ball. Trae Waynes can be what Williams will never be in that regard.
Darqueze Dennard overshadowed him last season, but Waynes is standing out on his own as a phenomenal man-coverage player on the edge. The Michigan State product is long enough to contest jump balls, quick enough to change direction in space and tough enough to get up on the line of scrimmage.
Waynes is a Kelly-type player, to be sure, and would be an instant starter in Philadelphia.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
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The Pick: DT Carl Davis, Iowa
The Cincinnati Bengals have a perfect record and a roster that's been built up very well through past drafts. With a first-round pick not based on need, this is a team set to draft for value and future needs.
The Bengals are getting great production on defense, but if there's an area where they can improve, the defensive tackle talent around Geno Atkins is it. Nose tackle Domata Peko and backup Brandon Thompson are solid, but they're not exceptional. And in the run-happy AFC North, that matters.
Carl Davis is a massive athlete with the strength and movement to be a factor in the middle of the line. He can play that 0-technique spot Peko holds now, and he can give the team the same anchor with more agility and pass-rush potential. Davis and Atkins playing side by side makes for a tough decision if you're the opposing center, too.
32. Arizona Cardinals
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The Pick: ILB Kris Frost, Auburn
The undefeated Arizona Cardinals have overcome injuries and suspensions on defense, but how long can that last? Larry Foote looks 10 years younger right now, but he's not a responsible option for 2015 and beyond. Kevin Minter definitely looks good at inside linebacker, replacing Daryl Washington, but he needs a running mate, and it's doubtful that Washington ever plays here again.
Kris Frost is what the NFL is moving to at inside linebacker. He's smooth, explosive, smart and versatile. He can play inside or outside linebacker, has the hips for coverage and has the shoulders for stopping the run. And with Arizona running a scheme that asks for versatility, Frost is the perfect fit.
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