NFL Week 2 Picks: Seahawks Secrets, Richardson Probes and More
Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here’s a warped and dented take on this weekend’s games, featuring an extra dose of bullet points for some unknown reason.
Note: All times listed are Eastern, odds are via Odds Shark and games are listed in the order you should read them.
Seahawks at Chargers
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Strength of Schedule for Every Team
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -5.5
Here are some scouting notes to help understand and cope with the Seahawks defense:
• No one is open. Your wide receivers aren’t open. Your tight ends aren’t open. If someone catches a pass, it’s a one-handed grab along the sideline with a defender breathing through his earhole. The only receivers who are open are the ones waiting for screen passes.
• Throwing a screen pass against the Seahawks defense is like throwing a Chicken McNugget to a school of piranhas.
• There are no “yards after catch” against the Seahawks defense. Physicists use the Bohr Radius (a0) as a handy subatomic unit of distance. A Bohr Radius is the most probable distance between a proton and electron in a hydrogen atom. The Seahawks measure their tackling in a0AC, and Pete Carroll gets snippy if they give up more than five.
• Kam Chancellor is like a strong safety and outside linebacker combined. Earl Thomas is a combination strong safety and free safety, with a little terrible punt returner mixed in. Brandon Mebane can play two tackle techniques at the same time. And Cliff Avril can injure two offensive players on one play without doing anything illegal. Do the math: You are playing 9-against-14.
• Chancellor is one of the NFL’s most underrated players. That is amazing, because he is a two-time Pro Bowler on a championship-winning defense, and everyone knows how awesome he is. He is the first player to be so underrated that he is so overrated that he is underrated. And you thought the Bohr Radius was confusing.
• Richard Sherman has not been mentioned yet, and that just motivates the crazy such-‘n’-such.
• If you are hoping for defensive penalties to save you, bad news: The Seahawks were not called for defensive holding at all during the Preseason of Yellow Sadness, and they were not called for holding or illegal contact at all during their Packers jolly-stomping. (There was one obvious pass interference). You are better off hoping for Marshawn Lynch to start speaking in iambic pentameter.
• Thomas is no longer the punt returner, so you should just punt on first down and hope for a muff. It was a bad idea anyway. Hand off a few times. Show a little pride.
Prediction: Seahawks 29, Chargers 16
Bears at 49ers
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: 49ers -7.5
The NFC North is the final stronghold of the Read Option Deniers movement. In the NFC West, teams with option-scented offenses regularly reach the Super Bowl, so defenses have adjusted. Chip Kelly calls three outside zone plays per minute in the NFC East, and RGIII is still hypothetically dangerous, so defenses have at least tried to adjust. After three years of coping with Cam Newton, NFC South defenses have adjusted.
But in the NFC North, Dom Capers still waits in vain for the day that quarterbacks stop running and hold still so his 1996 zone blitzes can get to them, while Mel Tucker lines up his revolving cast of youngsters and old-timers according to the principles spelled out in his Lil’ Lovie Starter Kit.
Read Option Denial was a problem for the Bears last week. Not only did Fred Jackson push Chris Conte 38 yards up the sideline like a Fisher Price Bubble Mower, but Anthony Dixon ran untouched up the gut for a 47-yard gain, and EJ Manuel scooted off left end for a short touchdown. The Bears gave up 193 rushing yards, many of them on plays with option trappings. This is a problem, because Colin Kaepernick is far more dangerous than EJ Manuel, and the 49ers won’t bother passing if they think they can jam their running game down your throat.
So here is a very remedial read-option primer for the Bears. Think of it as giving a globe to a flat-earther: They may not appreciate it right away, but at some point it will start to make sense to them.
• Most “read-option” plays are just inside zone or power plays, from the shotgun or pistol, with the quarterback making a little run fake at the end. You guys know how to stop an inside zone or power play, right? Let’s check last year’s film...oh dear. Maybe we should start over.
• Right now, you often have Lance Briggs playing the backside B-gap and Joe Bostic covering the play-side A-gap. When the quarterback and running back “mesh” (that’s the who has the ball? moment), Briggs runs like a crazy person toward the sideline while Bostic scratches his chin for a second, then runs toward the opposite sideline. This is a problem, because the running back is probably attacking the backside B-gap or play-side A-gap. So, telling your linebackers to just stand still may be an actual improvement.
• Also, this may be a delicate issue, but Lance Briggs is not fast enough to chase a Manuel-speed quarterback anymore, let alone a Kaepernick-speed one. Briggs was matched up on C.J. Spiller in man coverage on a simple rollout pass last week. The Bills kicked the extra point before Briggs reacted.
• Cut and paste everything said about Lance Briggs onto a bullet point about Jared Allen.
• Backside containment is an important job on the read-option, but that does not mean all 11 defenders should try to do it. Briggs, Bostic and Ryan Mundy all chased Manuel to the outside on Jackson’s game-winning run, again vacating all interior run gaps. Go back and study that first bullet point again.
• There are a variety of specialized defensive roles for attacking the read option: scrape, squeeze, fill, exchange, alley defense and so on. Chris Conte is suited to exactly zero of these roles.
• Willie Young really seems to know what he is doing. If he is only going to play 21 snaps per game, you should spend the other 40 picking his brain a little bit.
Tune in next week when we teach Jay Cutler alternatives to forcing every pass into tight coverage.
Prediction: 49ers 26, Bears 20
Lions at Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers -2.5
The Lions’ Monday night victory over the Giants sure was impressive. But was it a sign that they have finally changed their ways? Let’s consult the Lions Recurring Problems Checklist (copyrights 2010-2013):
• Matthew Stafford’s Mechanics. They looked better. Stafford also did smart things like throw passes out of the end zone and check down to running backs instead of trying to sidearm the ball between two safeties 35 yards downfield. Problem possibly solved.
• No Receivers Other Than Megatron. Golden Tate caught six passes for 93 yards. Tate, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Bush caught 19 of the Lions' 22 completions, but the Lions did not really need anyone else. Problem solved.
• Penalties. Eight for 85 yards, including a facemask by Dominic Raiola, the dean of the Lions’ college of dumb mistakes, and a roughing the punter penalty. Problem Unsolved.
• Unreliable Secondary. The Lions faced a big-armed quarterback who scatters passes into tight coverage. They have been practicing against that for five years! Darius Slay is progressing, but Bill Bentley’s injury saps the team’s depth. Incomplete data.
• Defensive Line not Performing to its Potential/Salary. Nick Fairley looks fat, but he’s the meanest, hardest-to-block fat guy you ever wanted to avoid. Ziggy Ansah was everywhere. George Johnson was a welcome addition. New fronts and blitz packages helped. But remember: These guys save their disappointment for the moments you are most counting on them. Problem possibly solved.
So the Lions look much smarter and more balanced than they have looked in years past, and let's all try to forget that we said the exact same things last September.
Cam Newton returns for the Panthers this week. He referred to Ndamukong Suh as “Donkey Kong Suh” during a midweek press conference. There is nothing reassuring about a quarterback stealing material from Ralph Wiggum.
Prediction: Lions 24, Panthers 21
Dolphins at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even
The newly rebuilt Dolphins offensive line can do things last year’s line could not. They handle individual assignments well! They block downfield on running plays! They all look like they actually want to be there! Branden Albert and Ja’Wuan James had sound games against tough defenders last week, while Samson Satele, Shelley Smith and Daryn Colledge bring a nasty streak, as opposed to last season’s “deep-seated pathological hatred” streak.
Sunday presents another tough test for the Dolphins line. Coordinator Jim Schwartz has rebuilt the Bills defense in the image of his old Lions teams: deadly front four, lots and lots of penalties (seven on defense last week, including two personal fouls). Schwartz defenses do not always win, but they typically hurt. Ryan Tannehill endured seven sacks against the Bills in a 19-0 loss last December. This Dolphins line is obviously better than that one, but this is a chance to show just how much they improved.
Prediction: Dolphins 22, Bills 13
Cowboys at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Titans -3
It has come to this. America’s Team, one of the most recognizable (and valuable) sports franchises in the world, is a three-point underdog to a bunch of guys you cannot even name.
Oh, stop jumping up and down shouting “Jake Locker! Kendall Wright!” Yeah, you know a couple of their fantasy players. Who’s this guy?
That’s Taylor Thompson, the backup tight end. He caught two passes last week. Give yourself five demerits if you said Bo Scaife, 25 if you said Frank Wycheck. How about this guy?
That’s Karl Klug. He has been with the team four years. He had a sack against the Chiefs last week. I wouldn’t dare try to stump you with Ropati Pitoitua types.
Of course, we can play the same game with Cowboys starting defenders and non-Tony Romo/Jason Witten/Dez Bryant role players, which is why the Cowboys are in this predicament. At least the unknown Titans might actually be good.
Prediction: Cowboys 28, Titans 27
Falcons at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals -5.5
Matt Ryan was trending this week. Remember him? Took his team to the playoffs four times in five years, throws for 4,000 yards like clockwork, was the last quarterback to really get the goat of the Seahawks defense in the playoffs two seasons ago? He had a tremendous game against the Saints last week and suddenly everyone remembers that he is good.
| 2008 | 11-5 | 265-434 | 61.1% | 3,440 | 16-11 | 87.7 | 17 |
| 2009 | 9-5 | 263-451 | 58.3% | 2,916 | 22-14 | 80.9 | 19 |
| 2010 | 13-3 | 357-571 | 62.5% | 3,705 | 28-9 | 91 | 23 |
| 2011 | 10-6 | 347-566 | 61.3% | 4,177 | 29-12 | 92.2 | 26 |
| 2012 | 13-3 | 422-615 | 68.6% | 4,719 | 32-14 | 99.1 | 28 |
| 2013 | 4-12 | 439-651 | 67.4% | 4,515 | 26-17 | 89.6 | 44 |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 31-43 | 72.1% | 448 | 3-0 | 128.8 | 1 |
Had Ryan kept hanging around, putting up fine numbers and losing in the playoffs, folks would take him for granted or dwell upon his deficiencies. But last year’s Falcons collapse pushed the reset button on his reputation. Now, he is battling back against the odds like a gritty underdog hero.
In other news, a light bulb just appeared over Andy Dalton’s head.
Prediction: Bengals 33, Falcons 28
Cardinals at Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -1
Eli Manning has devolved into the quarterback we accused Tony Romo of being for the last five years. He has become Eli Momo, bumbling turnover machine who heaves passes downfield blindly and randomly. Blame the new system and injuries if you like, but we blamed the old system and injuries last year. Lots of quarterbacks learn new systems and must adjust to an unimpressive supporting cast, but few turn two interceptions per game into a baseline.
Carson Palmer, meanwhile, has become Colin Kaepernick. Four rushes for 29 yards? Scrambling to complete clutch passes? Palmer has never rushed for more than 93 yards in a season, and he carried 27 times for three yards last season (four inches per carry), but he was so much older then. He’s younger than that now. So is Larry Foote, who recorded eight solo tackles and appeared to be in three places at once during Late Night with Philip Rivers on Monday/Tuesday. Even Larry Fitzgerald has entered a second adolescence: He finds his father embarrassing again.
Maybe there is something in the water in Arizona. THERE IS NO WATER IN ARIZONA. There is water all around the Meadowlands. So why is Eli the one shriveling up?
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Giants 13
Jaguars at Redskins
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Redskins -6
The Jaguars only had 30 minutes of good football in them last Sunday, but at least they were 30 minutes of really good football. Young skill position players like Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee looked great, the game plans were sound and the Seahawks Cover Band defense gave a credible impersonation of the real thing. Chad Henne used all of his power-ups to get through those first 30 minutes, and the Jaguars lack a counterpunch, but they can at least claim to be halfway there.
The Redskins are not halfway there, or one-tenth of the way there. If last week’s blocked punts, fumbled pitches, 3rd-and-long draw plays and numbskull penalties are any indication, they don’t even know which direction “there” is.
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Redskins 17
Saints at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints -7
The Saints are thin in the secondary. Cornerbacks Keenan Lewis, Corey White and Patrick Robinson were no match for Julio Jones, Roddy White, Henry Douglas and Devin Hester last week, and Lewis’ knee injury makes a bad situation worse. On paper, safety is a strength, but both Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd missed a bunch of tackles.
Fortunately for the Saints, they will not face Jones or White this week, nor Josh Gordon, whose suspension will be reduced by the new drug policies but not erased.
"From @RapSheet and me: If new drug policy passes, Browns WR Josh Gordon's suspension will be cut to 10 games. (@MaryKayCabot 1st reported).
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) September 12, 2014"
Keenan Lewis shouted “Tackle!” over and over again during a midweek open locker room. Perhaps he figured that bringing down a bunch of sportswriters would be the perfect warm up for facing what’s left of the Browns skill-position talent.
Prediction: Saints 28, Browns 17
Rams at Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers -5.5
The Buccaneers expect to have guard Logan Mankins and Doug Martin back for Sunday, but their two most important new additions will be Jeff Tedford and shame. Tedford has missed much of the past two weeks due to a heart condition. Quarterback coach Marcus Arroyo called the plays in Sunday’s 20-14 loss to the Panthers, and while the Bucs had offensive problems galore, the absence of their architect was a likely underlying factor.
Shame returned to the Buccaneers huddle in the second half last week. Center Evan Dietrich-Smith admitted after the game that embarrassment about their poor play and the 14-0 score motivated the Buccaneers line, spurring a late-game comeback.
"I didn't want to get out of there with a goose egg on the board," Dietrich-Smith told The Tampa Tribune. “It's a pride thing.”
Pride and a coordinator: two things the Rams offense needs as badly as a quarterback.
Prediction: Buccaneers 22, Rams 9
Texans at Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Texans -2.5
David Carr’s Houston Texans cautionary tale began with a two-touchdown performance in a 19-10 win over the Cowboys on Sept. 8, 2002. Carr battled hard that day—he always did—but he endured six sacks. He absorbed nine more the next week in a 24-3 loss to the Chargers, then 24 more in the next five games, all Texans losses. He ended the season with 76 sacks, the highest single-season total in history.
Carr was an impressive prospect who was not ready to start immediately for an undermanned expansion team with no offensive weapons and a patched-together offensive line. Who knows what sort of quarterback he might have become if he did not take such an early beating, the kind that screws up a passer’s mental clock and causes other bad habits?
Derek Carr has a chance to rewrite family history. He plays for a Raiders team with an expansion-worthy roster and payroll. He’s aided by running backs who averaged 1.7 yards per carry last week. He throws micro-short passes to household names like Denarius Moore and Mychal Rivera. He ran for his life against Rob Ryan’s Jets last week, faces J.J. Watt this week, then gets the Bill Belichick treatment next week…
Derek Carr’s Oakland Raiders cautionary tale began with a two-touchdown performance in a 19-14 loss to the Jets on Sept. 7, 2014 …
Prediction: Texans 19, Raiders 17
Jets at Packers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Packers -8.5
The Jets secondary passed its first test on Sunday. It shut down a rookie quarterback who defaulted into a starting job and his no-name journeyman receivers as they tried to execute a game plan consisting mostly of three-step-drop dump-offs along the sideline.
Wait, that’s not really a test at all. It’s more of an open-notebook homework quiz. This is a test.
Jets cornerbacks will look to their linemen for support against Aaron Rodgers. The defensive linemen will look for Derek Sherrod, the 320-pound hacky-sack every Seahawks defender from Michael Bennett to O’Brien Schofield kicked around on Thursday night. Mo Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Jason Babin and the rest of the Jets front can exploit any weak links in an offensive line, and Sherrod is more like a picked lock.
Still, with no proof that the Jets can cover Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb-level receivers or score more than 20 points per game, the Packers can get a win using plays like this:
On the plus side, no one is worrying about rookie Packers center Corey Linsley anymore.
Prediction: Packers 26, Jets 17
Chiefs at Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Broncos -12.5
It took the Titans about two series to figure out that the Chiefs had no wide receivers who could challenge their defense deep with Dwayne Bowe suspended. So they starting bring up the safeties and squeezing off all the screens, options and Jamaal Charles make something happen plays the Chiefs tried on them. When Alex Smith did throw deep, the result was usually an easy interception.
Bowe is back. But he also has a chronic finger injury, and as a deep threat he is only slightly more menacing than Donnie Avery or Frankie Hammond Junior.
OK, he is more menacing than Frankie Hammond Junior, who sounds like a 1950s doo-wop singer.
But the Chiefs are no better suited to survive a Broncos shootout than they were last year, while the Broncos are just as suited to force them into one.
Prediction: Broncos 37, Chiefs 20
Patriots at Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Patriots -6
“Cassel’s Revenge” sounds like a terrible Commodore 64 game the geekiest kid in your neighborhood would not shut up about in 1986. It's about this guy named Cassel who wakes up wandering in the wilderness with amnesia about the last five years. Then he discovers he was once the heir to a powerful kingdom, so he must fight to regain his birthright. Naw, man there are no graphics: It’s a text-based adventure! Here, let me insert floppy disc 4, where he receives a riddle from the wizard Pioli.
Adrian Peterson is inactive for this game after his indictment on Friday. His absence will have a profound on-field effect, and the allegations against him have an even more profound off-field effect. I have been writing jokey game previews for nine seasons, through natural disasters, national tragedies and countless NFL scandals. But this was the first week in which so many football stories were so staggeringly awful or upsetting that being funny, even about tangential topics, felt almost wrong. Peterson became a big part of that awful feeling late in the week.
These previews are designed to make you laugh, which is most important when you feel like crying. Chalk this up as one more game that it is hard to feel very good about. Let's hope there are not many more of them, or any more weeks like this.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Vikings 17
Eagles at Colts
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Colts -3
In their last three games, counting the 2013 playoffs, the Colts have been outscored 79-29 in the first half. They were outscored 102-70 in the first quarter last season…
Back in 1955, the Giants experimented with a two-quarterback platoon system. Charlie Conerly, the better of their two quarterbacks, would not take the field until Don Heinrich played the first few series. The logic was that Conerly would watch and study from the sideline as Heinrich “probed the defense for weaknesses.” That’s the exact language used to describe the tactic nearly every time it is mentioned.
Eventually, the Giants began to question why they were keeping their best quarterback on the bench and abandoned the strategy, but it took them two full seasons to finally scrap something that didn’t make a lick of sense.
Perhaps the Colts are giving Trent Richardson his half-dozen obligatory early game carries in an attempt to probe the defense. “Hey, maybe they cannot tackle. At all. Maybe their lineup consists of five Chris Contes, five Asante Samuels and a creature made entirely out of bathroom tissue. If that’s the case, our Trent Probe will provide all the information we need!”
Chuck Pagano and Pep Hamilton will eventually figure out that the tactic is a major contributor to the team’s slow starts, but again, it took that Giants offensive coordinator two years. AND HE WAS VINCE LOMBARDI. So have patience, Colts fans.
The Eagles endured their own miserable first quarter last Sunday. But if you waste too much of a game trying to “probe” Chip Kelly, he’ll drop 35 points on you.
Prediction: Eagles 31, Colts 27
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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