2009 NFL Mock Draft: Mark Sanchez to Seattle, Crabtree to Oakland
Here goes another mock. Wide receivers have fallen in recent years, and so I expect that trend to continue. I don't expect a run on defensive backs in the first round, but rather in the second round.
The Lions cannot pass on the passer, while the Seahawks could be in search for a new QB to start the Jim Mora Jr regime.
The premium position in this draft will be offensive and defensive linemen, so expect many of them in the first round.
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I believe that the direction of the 2009 NFL Draft will be determined by what Seattle does at fourth overall and the future of Mark Sanchez. That pick could also determine the future of incumbent players for Seattle, including Walter Jones and Matt Hasselbeck.
I think so because, there is a general consensus about the top 3 being Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith and Aaron Curry. The pivotal pick is Seattle at number 4.
With Mike Holmgren leaving, Jim Mora Jr would be wise to make changes to make the system his own, rather than fly on autopilot like Bill Callahan did in 2002-2003 for the Raiders.
The Seahawks could go any number of ways: Eugene Monroe, BJ Raji, Michael Crabtree or in my opinion, Mark Sanchez. Sometimes the *obvious* answers are not the *right* answers. That is what it truly means to 'think outside the box.'
That is because, the obvious answer is that which is obvious to your perceptions. But what if, you're instinctive perceptions are wrong because they've been clouded by bent facts, biases, office politics, and egos?
On closer inspection of the Seahawks, you will see that quarterback is not the obvious answer for Seattle, but it is the right one for a team that has stagnated.
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Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
The Lions have needed a QB since Bobby Layne (look it up). They also need an offensive-lineman, but QB is the priority. With Matt Millen gone, do not expect more linebackers and wide receivers.
I think Detroit needs to load-up on offense and play scrappy defense. I know that their defense is scrambled, but I do see potential in S Gerald Alexander, S Daniel Bullocks, DE Cliff Avril, DE Ikaika Alama-Francis and ILB Jordan Dizon, and of course LB Ernie Sims.
Meanwhile, CB Phillip Buchanon, LB Julian Peterson, CB Anthony Henry and DT Grady Jackson are prudent stop-gaps, yet DE Jared Devries and DT Chartric Darby seem to be stagnate veterans. Not sure about DE Dwayne White and CB Travis Fisher.
This team is far from where Atlanta and Miami was in 2008, but has potential. Seriously. Their problem though is a culture of losing, which is what a true franchise player can change.
Yes, they need to improve the offensive-line, but mostly the left-side. I think there is more potential in Detroit's current linemen than there is in Drew Stanton at quarterback. I mean, if Jon Kitna can play behind a similar line (2007), surely Matthew Stafford can too.
A quarterback, tight end, left-guard, a true blocking fullback; and young depth at running back, tight-end and the offensive-line. That would be an excellent draft for the Lions.
St. Louis Rams
Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Toss up between Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe, but I think Smith is the better all-around tackle, while Monroe excels in pass-protection.
Nevertheless, I wonder if Eugene Monroe is another Robert Gallery or at worst Kwame Harris -- a non-aggressive finesse player with an imposing size, so I think that teams should consider that.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
The Chiefs might convert to the 3-4 as the base defense. Either way, Curry is the hands-down best defensive prospect in the draft.
The Chiefs also need to pursue a defensive-tackle, defensive-end, right-tackle and a true flanker at wide-receiver to compliment Dwayne Bowe who is more of a split end.
As much as I hate to say it, with the right moves, the Chiefs could rebound in a fashion similar to the Falcons or Dolphins, but need to resolve the issue with RB Larry Johnson.
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Seattle Seahawks
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
This would be a surprise pick, but do not be shocked by it. Matt Hasselbeck is on the wrong side of his career (and was terrible in the time he played in 2008) while Mike Holmgren is leaving.
Coach Mora then should start with a new leader at quarterback and phase-out Hasselbeck or trade him, while Seneca Wallace is probably better off as a receiver, or Wildcat type player.
A true franchise player is a player that defines the culture of a team and takes control in a tough situation. Shaun Alexander was that player for Seattle and Walter Jones still is, while Matt Hasselbeck has never been such. And I honestly believe that, Hasselbeck never will be.
Consider also, that when the Seahawks appeared in the Super Bowl, they had NFL MVP Shaun Alexander and played in a weak division. Now however, the Cardinals just appeared in the Super Bowl, the Niners are a quarterback away from contending for the Division, and the Rams... well, we'll wait and see about the Rams.
The bottom line consequently is that the competition was different, while Hasselbeck has had a target on him ever since, and has not risen to the new level of attention he now garners. Seattle limped to the postseason in 2006 and 2007 in a weak division, a division that is now stronger.
The Seahawks then would be wise to capitalize on the opportunity for a franchise passer before they *need* one, because the tackles have been wrongly lambasted by pundits and fans.
The offensive problem for Seattle was not the tackles (Jones, Locklear, Willis), the problem with the offensive-line was the interior (LG, C, RG) ever since Steve Hutchinson, Robbie Tobeck and Chris Gray left. The Seahawks can select interior linemen in the second and third rounds, or trade back into the first-round.
Taking a tackle like Eugene Monroe would not fix Seattle’s woes, just delay the inevitable. If the Seahawks took Monroe, what would happen to Walter Jones? Presumably, they’d release him, so if that would be the case: Would the Seahawks improve?
No, they’d just swap a future HOF-er for a rookie. As I mentioned, the Seahawks can take Sanchez and then select interior linemen in the later rounds, which is what their line actually needs.
And what if Monroe cannot outperform Jones? The 'Hawks would just have an expensive right-tackle or backup on their hands (sic Robert Gallery), when they already have capable right-tackles in Sean Locklear and Ray Willis.
Furthermore, I think they'd be wise and bold to trade-back into the first round (say... San Diego) in order to select center Alex Mack, so that they can move Chris Spencer to guard.
Just ask the Raiders. They passed on Ben Roethlisberger (2004) and Phillip Rivers (2004) for OL Robert Gallery; Aaron Rodgers (2005) to trade for WR Randy Moss and again to select CB Fabian Washington; and Jay Cutler (2006) for DB Michael Huff; only to end up with the number 1 pick in 2007, which they used to select JaMarcus Russell.
I believe in J-Russ, but at the same time, I wish the Raiders had taken a QB when they had the chance, rather than circle the waters for years. Unlike fellow Trojans Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, Sanchez appears ready to take control in a tough situation.
Part of the reason I believe that is because I think Sanchez's decision to declare is a sign that he was ready to move-on from the spoils of USC, unlike Palmer and Leinart. In the case of Leinart, he stayed another year to study ball-room dancing. He wasn't ready to leave and take control in a tough situation. I do believe though that Sanchez is ready.
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Cleveland Browns
Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Chris Wells seems to go hot and cold in Mock Drafts, but the Browns badly need an upgrade at running back to take the load off Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and the passing game in general. Thus, the Browns take the former Buckeye.
I'm aware of the discontent within the Cleveland organization, but I think the Browns need to appease those players without trades. To start over with Michael Crabtree could end in the same result as Braylon Edwards.
Braylon Edwards proved that he can be a big-time receiver in the NFL (2007), when the Browns have a balanced offense (passing, running). Thus, why should anyone believe that the Browns can do better with Michael Crabtree than they have with Braylon Edwards?
If your team cannot learn how to retain your players and develop them, then the Draft just turns your franchise into the story structure of Groundhog's Day. Or should I say, the Detroit Lions?
As Albert Einstein once said, "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." In other words, the impatience that will lead to constant turnover of talent at the same position will not put you ahead.
Moreover, in 2007, the Browns won 10 with a lousy defense. When the offense clicks, they can win. Thus, taking a linebacker wouldn't really solve anything. They need to get their offense back to where it was in 2007 (running, passing).
The Browns flopped in 2008, because the opponents keyed-in on Derek Anderson instead of Jamal Lewis. Therefore, what the Browns need is a running back.
Granted, that Lewis had not been the same player since his 2000 yard season, but he was certainly a known commodity in comparison to Derek Anderson. So by focusing on Lewis, that allowed Anderson to open the passing game, which opened the running lanes for Lewis.
But then suddenly, Anderson was the guy to target. Once he went down, Lewis wasn't good enough to carry the offense. The losing led to discontent and the pointing of fingers.
The Browns offense though, would be significantly better with an effective running game, and that's not to say that they should release Lewis but rather, carry two runners.
Furthermore, Eric Mangini took a project rusher for the Jets in 2008, Vernon Gholston,
who struggled. Brian Orakpo is similar to Gholston. Gholston, in my mind, is the real
reason that Mangini was let go from the Jets. Not Brett Favre -- but the fact that Mangini wanted a high-pick who flopped and in effect threw gas on their draft fire by trading for Brett Favre. Had the Jets scored on that pick in the draft, they probably would have earned a postseason berth. Instead, the Jets passed on LB Jerod Mayo, QB Joe Flacco and OT Ryan Clady.
Mangini in effect went all-in with New York's draft picks in 2008 and some in 2009 by trading for Favre, trading back into the first round in 2008 for Dustin Keller and taking Vernon Gholston. Keller has succeeded, Favre was lukewarm while Gholston was a non-factor. So, I'm left to wonder: Does Eric Mangini want to again play Texas Hold 'Em by taking Brian Orakpo from Texas when the Browns can take a safe pick in Chris Wells?
Taking a defensive player here won't make Cleveland's defense explosive the way their offense was explosive with a balance between the run and pass in 2007. Nevertheless, if the Browns could decide to go another way, but I can only argue for what I believe to be true.
Cincinnati Bengals
Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Eugene Monroe falls into the hands of the Bengals who need to protect Carson Palmer and open lanes for the running backs, whether Monroe will produce is another question but a tackle would be their best chance of doing so. The Bengals need at least two offensive-linemen, and could potentially take Andre Smith here as a right-tackle.
Cedric Benson at running-back is not a long term solution and Chris Perry probably is not either, but the Bengals should have the opportunity to select a runner in the second round.
Yes, the Cincy defense is woeful, but I think that the Bengals would be best served to focus on revamping the offense rather than the defense. The defense is mostly in need of two defensive-ends, but my belief is, an improved offense would *trickle down* to the defense. Sometimes that works in the other direction (see Chicago's Draft of 2006), but I think in this case, the offense is where Cincinnati's opportunities lie.
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Oakland Raiders
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
I know that Al Davis at times is and has been the NFL's answer to Don Quixote, but I personally still believe that Davis knows football like the back of his hand; nevertheless, that same hand can and has been stubbornly used as an iron fist -- and that in my belief is the source of Oakland's wayward ways since the Super Bowl of 2002-2003.
This offseason so far though, has marked a change in direction for the Raiders in some regards.
The Raiders have retained a large group of free-agents of starters and specialists and restructured the contracts of others or released them, while the only significant departures have been center Jake Grove and safety Gibril Wilson.
The Raiders though have also added value in players like OT Erik Pears, OT Khalif Barnes, C Samson Satele (by trade) and QB Jeff Garcia to backup JaMarcus Russell.
However, one trend has so far continued: trading draft picks. The Raiders are without picks in the 5th and 6th rounds in 2009, traded down in the 4th with Miami, and received no compensatory picks in 2009 because of the free-agents they signed in 2008. Thus, I hope that the Raiders look to add a quantity of picks.
Personally, I believe that the 4th and 5th rounds of the NFL draft are what makes or breaks a franchise, because those are the rounds where you can find foundational players to surround the star players you seek in the 1st and 2nd rounds.
Finally, I think Michael Crabtree will tumble, because wide receivers have fallen in recent years so I expect the trend to continue, especially because Crabtree lacks a timed 40, but that will not dissuade Al Davis.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
BJ Raji, DT, Boston College
The Jags need to revamp their defense and would love to replace the traded Marcus Stroud with a tackle like BJ Raji.
The Jags are another team that's neither, "here nor there," in that you cannot pinpoint the source of their problems, but trading Marcus Stroud in 2008 definitely hurt their defense.
I think Raji will tumble because the teams ahead of Jacksonville have different needs and opportunities, and so Raji will slide but not from the Top 10.
The only team ahead of J'Ville that might select Raji, I believe, is Cleveland. Even though I firmly believe that they should select Chris Wells, but if the Browns take Raji, then I think J'Ville will take Wells to replace Fred Taylor.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Maybin, DE/LB, Penn St
I think Aaron Maybin is a better fit for the 3-4 than Brian Orakpo is. The Packers need another rusher to fit their newly installed 3-4 system, unless they really do believe in Brady Poppinga.
Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
The Niners want to play defense and run the ball. I doubt they will add another runner but rather bolster the offensive line with Andre Smith.
Buffalo Bills
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi
The Bills select the replacement for OT Jason Peters.
Denver Broncos
Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
With the Broncos moving to the 3-4, they need a starter on the defensive-line.
Washington Redskins
Clay Matthews, OLB, USC
The Redskins need a disruptive playmaker in the front seven to protect their investment in DT Albert Haynesworth.
One thing I've wondered is why Dan Snyder has not replaced Coach Zorn with Jon Gruden (then demote Zorn to offensive-coordinator).
Gruden would be more conducive to the "Over the Hill Gang" philosophies of Dan Snyder, and could install a West Coast offense to suit QB Jason Campbell.
Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State
The Saints need a defensive-back, desperately, and get lucky because the best one falls to them.
Jenkins is probably better suited to play safety because of his deficient speed and the Saints need safeties in spades.
The one issue I have is that New Orleans always seems to load-up on offensive value even when they need defense, so I won't be surprised if they take an offensive-lineman or a running back or even Jeremy Maclin.
Nevertheless, this team badly needs to bolster the defense, and in my opinion, cannot afford to take offensive-value.
Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
The Texans need a pass-rush force in the front seven. The Texans released DE Anthony Weaver and LB Marlon Greenwood and need to maximize the potential of LB DeMeco Ryans and DE Mario Williams.
San Diego Chargers
Brian Cushing, LB, USC
The Chargers like to take value picks and cut starters, so this would be no surprise. I know that San Diego signed Kevin Burnett but he's certainly not a shoo-in at starter, but Burnett's signing also indicated their discontent with Matt Wilhelm.
I know that the Chargers could use a prospect to replace G Mike Goff and DE Igor Olshansky, but I believe that Brian Cushing would be better value at this spot than G Duke Robinson or DT Peria Jerry.
The reason why is that I think Jacques Cessaire is a capable replacement for Olshansky and Scott Mruczkowski is a capable replacement for Goff, but I'm not convinced by Burnett. The reason being is that Dallas choose to sign veterans Zach Thomas (2008) and Keith Brooking (2009) over Burnett.
Furthermore, the Chargers traded a second round pick for receiver Chris Chambers while Vincent Jackson has developed into a 1000-yard receiver, in addition to Malcolm Floyd and Chris Davis. It seems then that Jeremy Maclin would create a log-jam situation at receiver for the Chargers.
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New York Jets
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Jeremy Maclin tumbles too, and into the hands of the Jets in need of a receiver. Probably not a rookie starter, but will get his chances to make plays on special-teams, which will free-up Leon Washington for a greater role in the offense.
Maclin reminds me of DeSean Jackson, who fell to the Eagles in the second round of the 2008 Draft, after being projected in the first round. I think Maclin will be able to contribute on special teams and perhaps by big-plays on offense, here and there. Nevertheless, I don't think he's a rookie starter, which is what teams look for in the Top 15.
One thing I've noticed is the increasing impatience of fans for quarterbacks and wide- receivers to contribute immediately. Though QBs and WRs can contribute as rookies, I still believe that fans should allow a grace period for those positions of about three seasons in order to learn, without exigent circumstances (eg injury), and five seasons with exigent circumstances.
For every Ben Roethlisberger there is an Alex Smith. Sometimes fans just need to accept the rebuilding process and that quarterbacks and receivers need time.
People look at examples of impact rookies at wide receiver such as Marques Colston and Michael Clayton. Yet, those players burst onto the scene too quickly and haven't kept up with the attention they now garner. Really, the only receiver to be a great rookie and continue was Anquan Boldin, yet even he had a sophomore slump.
I also think that the Jets should stick with Kellen Clemens as their quarterback. If Rex Ryan can implement an effective Baltimore-style defense, then Clemens should be fine.
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Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
The Broncos need youth in the secondary—Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill and Brian Dawkins are not exactly spring chickens.
Vontae Davis would fit nicely in the nickel and might start by mid-season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
The Bucs need youth on defense, but mostly in terms of depth.
The biggest hole for the Bucs is quarterback. They invested in Derrick Ward, tagged Antonio Bryant, and traded for Kellen Winslow II, and have a solid offensive-line plus some depth.
All they really need is a quarterback for their offense, while the Bucs have a good track record of finding defensive value in the later rounds.
Detroit Lions (from Dallas)
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
This might shock and horrify Detroit fans, but the Lions need another weapon for their rookie quarterback. A weapon they've lacked since the departure of David Sloan.
I think Detroit would be wiser to add another weapon for Matthew Stafford (assuming that Pettigrew falls this far and assuming that Detroit takes Stafford).
Some might even think Stafford's teammate Knowshon Moreno at this spot, but Stafford needs weapons in order to succeed. Plus, Pettigrew is an excellent blocker so this pick would be a twofer.
I am not the type that thinks passing is more important than running, but I do believe that the Lions already have a capable runner in Kevin Smith, whom could do more if the running lanes were opened with the passing game.
Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina)
Knowshon Moreno, HB, Georgia
The Eagles need a runner for short-yardage situations and an eventual replacement for Brian Westbrook.
Minnesota Vikings
Alex Mack, C, California
Matt Birk signed with the Ravens, so obviously the Vikings need a center to block for Adrian Peterson and snap for Sage Rosenfels.
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New England Patriots
Everette Brown, DE/LB, Florida State
Brown would convert well to outside linebacker for a New England team in need of an outside rusher.
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Atlanta Falcons
Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi
The Falcons badly need to fix their defense. The signed LB Mike Petterson, and have DE John Abraham and the project DE Jamaal Anderson. What they need is a force in the middle of the defensive-line. Thus, they snap-up Peria Jerry.
Miami Dolphins
Eben Britton, OL, Arizona
The Dolphins could use an upgrade at right guard, while Bill Parcells has a penchant for offensive-linemen.
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Baltimore Ravens
Robert Ayers, DE, Florida
Baltimore stays true to taking the best available. Robert Ayers has good size for the 3-4 and could probably add a few pounds.
Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
The Colts obviously need a linebacker. Cushing reminds me of Keith Brooking—a no-frills tackling-machine.
Cushing might be better on the inside than the outside because of his deficiencies in pass-rushing.
Buffalo Bills
Larry English, LB, Northern Illinois
The Bills need an upgrade in the Front Seven, so with the top defensive ends gone, I think that the Bills take English as an upgrade over LB Keith Ellison.
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New York Giants
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Almost a 'duh' pick -- the G-Men select a receiver to replace Plexico Burress.
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Tennessee Titans
James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State
The Titans need depth at linebacker and this seems like a safe pick.
They could take a receiver, but unless they trade-up for Percy Harvin, I think they reinforce their strength -- defense.
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Arizona Cardinals
Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
The rumors about failed drug tests, I think, will drop Percy Harvin to fifth receiver. Harvin isn't really a polished receiver, and the failed tests indicate personality problems.
Even though failed tests have been the death-knell for a player's draft stock (eg DT Anttaj Hawthorne in 2005), I think Harvin is too promising to pass on entirely.
Harvin would fit well in a gimmicky offense like Arizona's and would be insurance for the Cards if they cannot resolve the Anquan Boldin situation, or even if they trade Boldin on draft day.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Jarron Gilbert, DE, San Jose State
The YouTube star Jarron Gilbert would fit nicely as a five-technique end in the 3-4 and would give Pittsburgh a young player on the line or replacement for Brett Keisel.
I honestly believe that Gilbert can be an All-Pro in the right system, and the Mike Tomlin Steelers would be a perfect situation for him.
There it is folks. I try to use the Mock Draft to analyze the direction of each team based on their needs, team culture, and the value in the draft.
And to me, Seattle is at a pivotal moment. They can either continue to regress through vain tinkering, or they can make the bold moves they need to make in order to contend again.
They don't need Michael Crabtree because of TJ Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, TE John Carlson and Nate Burleson. They don't need a tackle because Eugene Monroe would just complicate their situation. And they don't need a defensive-tackle after investing in Colin Cole and Cory Redding.
You might say: They don't need a quarterback. The reality however is, the Seahawks have stagnated and need a new leader. Here's another fact for you: The only quarterbacks to lose their first Super Bowl appearance and then return: Johnny Unitas, Fran Tarkenton, Jim Kelly, Roger Staubach, Len Dawson and John Elway. Matt Hasselbeck is definitely not in their league.
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