Lakers Should Slow-Play Kawhi Negotiations, Wait Until 2019 Free Agency
What's the rush?
Seriously, why should the Los Angeles Lakers have even the tiniest inkling of motivation to expedite the process of acquiring Kawhi Leonard at this stage of negotiations? Talented as the All-NBA small forward may be—and the world at large often seems to forget the true extent of his two-way talents—caving to the San Antonio Spurs' unrealistic demands would severely hinder the roster-building progression around a certain new centerpiece.
But let's backtrack.
Since LeBron James agreed to join the Hollywood natives on a four-year contract that ended his second tenure with the Cleveland Cavaliers, everything has centered around moving the squad from the lottery to the realm of championship contenders. Even the baffling one-year contracts handed out to Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson and JaVale McGee were, apparently, part of the overall plan, as reported by ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne and Brian Windhorst:
"According to multiple sources within the Lakers and close to James, this is the rollout of a plan [team president Magic] Johnson outlined for James the night of June 30 at James' home. The subsequent deals, which sources say James has consulted on but have been executed at Johnson and Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka's direction, follow this vision."
This plan, of course, doesn't stop with one-year contracts designed to continue the defensive progression and keep cap flexibility open for 2019 and beyond. It also includes a shot at a superstar who's on the ropes in San Antonio.
And while the offseason began with an apparent arms race to poach him away from the Spurs, patience is now the correct course of action.
Fractured Beyond Repair
Though it's fun to imagine the Spurs somehow pulling off their typical voodoo as head coach Gregg Popovich provides an encore to his successful swaying of LaMarcus Aldridge last offseason, that's not realistic at this point. Nor is the front office trading for external pieces who could help convince Leonard to mend fences; the team simply doesn't have expendable assets who can land those types of big fish.
When hide-and-seek is involved, relationships are likely beyond repair.
"There was a point during [Kawhi's] rehab process in New York that some of the Spurs brass went out to see him in New York," ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright revealed to Tom Haberstroh on the Back To Back podcast (h/t NBC Sports' Kurt Helin). "As soon as those guys arrived to the building, Kawhi's people grabbed him and sequestered him to another part of the building. And so the Spurs' people couldn't even see him."
To the best of our knowledge, Leonard won't give his employers a chance to talk things through. Popovich's season-long insistence that those seeking information should look to the player's camp now makes a lot more sense; he really might not have known what's going on.
All this dysfunction, uncharacteristic of the Spurs organization as it may be, doesn't directly affect the Lakers. On the surface, it should actually make their pursuit of a trade more reasonable, given San Antonio's ever-increasing need to part ways with its primary building block. And yet, it's not affecting the organizational demands.
Per salary-cap guru Larry Coon, the Spurs are seeking a package that includes Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart, two first-round picks and another two selection swaps from the Purple and Gold:
That's a patently ridiculous ask. The Spurs are the ones losing leverage, given Leonard's impending free agency (he can turn down a player option for 2019-20 to hit the open market in unrestricted fashion after making $20.1 million during the coming season) and unmitigated desire for a quick departure. But they're not acting like it.
It's the conjunction of those two puzzle pieces that should make Los Angeles sit back and relax.
The Spurs un-fracturing their relationship with Leonard is the biggest concern, and that no longer seems possible—if it ever was in the first place. If they're going to make another organization sway them with a Godfather offer, that just plays into the Lakers' hands. After all, they're the one franchise that can afford to wait.
The Los Angeles Inevitability
Waiting does carry some risks, as we saw with Paul George and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Though the Indiana Pacers still stole away Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis in exchange for a superstar widely perceived as a flight risk, that was considered settling at the time. That Oladipo broke out into a full-fledged All-Star is irrelevant because the Pacers couldn't have possibly known how much he'd improve. They still had to accept a lesser package; conventional thinking indicated George was going to bolt to the Lakers as soon as he became a free agent.
Except he didn't...and that might give a franchise such as the Philadelphia 76ers the confidence necessary to bite the bullet and spring for Leonard in the coming weeks. No matter how guaranteed the two-time Defensive Player of the Year's eventual journey to Los Angeles may currently seem, a lot can change when he's actually forming bonds with a new set of teammates—and, perhaps more importantly, winning games.
That's still a risk Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka should be willing to assume, even in the face of conflicting rumors.
"The Lakers are not Kawhi's preferred destination anymore," Wright also said on the Back To Back podcast. "He wants to go to the Clippers. Because he doesn't want to go and be second fiddle to LeBron. That's what I was told. I was told by somebody that would know. So right now the Clippers are where he wants to go."
And yet, that runs counter to other reports:
Nothing has changed between those two revelations. James is still a Laker, and the books are still cleared for a massive contract in 2019. Leonard is still from Los Angeles, even remaining in California for his collegiate career before becoming the No. 15 pick of the 2011 NBA draft. The Clippers still have limited upside and might struggle to regain their former glory now that every prominent Lob City figure has moved on.
Los Angeles, specifically of the Lakers variety, remains the most likely outcome for Leonard in next year's free-agency period. And yet, that's still not the most compelling reason for patience.
Testing the Youngsters
Why give up Ingram, Kuzma, Hart and draft-day selections when you can potentially acquire Leonard as a free agent and retain all those pieces? Why part with even one of those assets when they could fit so nicely alongside James and give the Lakers the actionable upside they've sought for so long?
Los Angeles doesn't need to feel temporal pressure now that it's acquired a four-time MVP. Winning now would be nice, but preparing for the future is even more important because proper team construction could allow for constant contention during the twilight of James' career, as well as a carryover effect if/when he departs or retires.
One piece of the puzzle that seems to be consistently glossed over when discussing how the Lakers can acquire Leonard: The youngsters they'd be giving up are largely bubbling over with potential.
Of the three leading candidates, Kuzma might be the least intriguing. That's not even intended as an insult, because it's only his lack of two-way ability that holds him back. He's still a fantastic scoring threat coming off a rookie season in which he averaged 16.1 points per game while slashing 45.0/36.6/70.7. In the last 20 campaigns, Stephen Curry, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Karl-Anthony Towns are the only qualified first-years to match his combination of scoring average and true shooting percentage.
Kuzma's offensive production alone gives the 22-year-old a chance to become one of the few Lakers during the three-point era to make the All-Star squad before finishing his age-25 season—a club currently populated by only Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Cedric Ceballos, Magic Johnson, Eddie Jones, Shaquille O'Neal and James Worthy.
But he still doesn't match the long-term upside of Ball.
Despite the point guard's shooting struggles and woeful form on his jumpers, his remarkably quick hands, defensive instincts and preternatural passing vision make him an ideal fit at the 1 alongside James. FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projection system pegs him as a future All-Star earning 6.7 wins above replacement during both 2020-21 and 2021-22, and the confidence interval allows for the possibility of a whopping 15 WAR that would outpace the earnings of James himself from 2017-18 (13 WAR).
The numbers may not indicate as much, but he still may not match the long-term upside of Ingram.
Carrying a team was asking too much of this youngster, but he's showed every possible tool while developing as a wing defender who can reasonably and realistically shoulder a hefty scoring load. He's raring for a breakout now that he's suddenly surrounded by more useful pieces. And as Kevin O'Connor penned for The Ringer before diving into Ingram's many skills, "If I'm Spurs general manager R.C. Buford, I wouldn't trade with the Lakers unless the former no. 2 pick is involved. But if I'm Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka, I'd view Ingram as a keeper that's virtually off limits in trade talks."
We haven't even touched on Hart, Moritz Wagner or any of the other youngsters populating Los Angeles' current roster, but it's this youthful trio that allows for patience. If they can wait out the Spurs and acquire Leonard without breaking up the core, that's the dream. Even if they miss out on Leonard, these gentlemen are intriguing enough that the Lake Show could become attractive to other marquee free agents, like Kevin Durant.
Plus, waiting allows the Lakers to evaluate the fit alongside James. If anyone isn't clicking, that's when you can start shopping him around in future deals, and you'd be doing so in far more informed fashion. Pull the trigger too quickly, and you run the risk of choosing Serge Ibaka over James Harden.
Dissatisfaction with his current location. Unrealistic asking prices. Enduring interest in Tinseltown. Youthful upside already on the roster. More chances for evaluation alongside James.
So once more, what's the rush?
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
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