Who Are the Warriors' Biggest Title Threats, Post-Trade Deadline?
When watching the Golden State Warriors, it sometimes seems their only threats to the 2018 NBA title are either imaginary (zombie apocalypse) or strictly health-related.
Maybe that is the case given their unprecedented run of success and borderline-unfairly loaded roster. But head coach Steve Kerr—who has overseen this meteoric rise—says there are tangible obstacles across the basketball landscape.
"[The Houston Rockets] are definitely a challenge," Kerr said, per NBC Bay Area's Monte Poole. "There are plenty of challenges out there. They're a good team. So is Boston. So is Cleveland. So is OKC. So is San Antonio. So is Toronto. There are a lot of good teams out there and each one poses different threats and different challenges."
Kerr didn't throw out those six squads at random. The group contains the five teams directly behind Golden State in net efficiency, plus the Warriors' Finals adversary the past three seasons. If there is a club capable of dethroning the defending champs, it's located among that hexad.
However, there are different threat levels from that group, and we have ranked them based on the degree of difficulty they present to the Dubs.
By weighing season-long stats, recent head-to-head bouts and post-trade deadline projections, we can determine which ones have the best odds of orchestrating a postseason upset.
6. Boston Celtics
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It's been four seasons since the Warriors swept their series with the Boston Celtics, and the 2017-18 two-game tussle could not have been closer. Both sides scored 197 points in the contests, with each squad squeaking out a four-point victory at home.
Boston can grind down Golden State's attack like no one else, which makes sense since the Shamrocks pace the entire Association in defensive rating (100.5) and opponents' field-goal percentage (43.3). Their stoppers are long, versatile, athletic and brilliantly coached by Brad Stevens. The Warriors, who shoot a league-best 51.1 percent on average, have hit just 43.8 percent from the field over their previous six meetings.
Draymond Green said, per CBS Sports' Colin Ward-Henninger:
"When you got two guys on the wing 6'8" or 6'9", whatever they are, that type of length helps a lot. And then Al Horford, one of your back line defenders who's very smart. Kyrie [Irving], who over the last couple of years has stepped his defense up a ton and started to take on those challenges and has become a good defender. They rotate guys with Aron Baynes, who's a bruiser. ... They go 6'8", 6'9", 6'9", 6'11", 6'10". That length is tough, and they're scrappy."
Boston's defense is elite and equipped to bother Golden State. And if the Celtics can keep things tight, they have one of the game's premier closers in Irving. The 6'3" All-Star guard—who has ripped the hearts out of Warriors fans before—has scored the second-most clutch points this season (135).
However, with Gordon Hayward out of the equation and no reinforcements arriving at the trade deadline, Boston doesn't have enough to win the numbers game over Golden State. The non-Kyrie scoring options are inconsistent for the Celtics, who have gone just 18-14 since sprinting out to a blistering 22-4 start.
5. Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors can't escape their history. They've never reached the NBA Finals, were outscored by 93 points over six games in their lone Eastern Conference Finals appearance and have just four series victories over their 23-year existence.
That's why fans will continue scoffing at their staying power even as the stat sheet paints them as elite. Only two teams have a higher winning percentage (.714) or a better net rating (plus-7.8). And only the Warriors can match the Raptors' distinction of fielding top-five units on both offense and defense (fourth in each).
These aren't your older sibling's dinosaurs. This Toronto team plays a more modernized style that should hold up better in the postseason. That means less mid-range looks and more triples. Less ball-pounding and better pace. Less reliance on All-Stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and more opportunities for the league's best bench.
"I think we have literally two separate teams," Lowry said, per Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling. "And that's a great thing to have. We have the bench guys who can come in and play at the starters' pace. And the starters who can play at the bench's pace. It's just fun to have a good team that can all mix in with each other."
Toronto can take on different forms over the course of a game, downsizing with a spread attack or bullying up front with two-big looks. It can control contests at both ends—which makes it more threatening than Boston—and utilize its depth to wear on Golden State.
The Raptors' best strength might be its second unit, though, and bench battles grow less important when rotations are trimmed for the playoffs. Plus, the Splash Brothers are the most dangerous backcourt in this matchup, and Toronto doesn't have its version of Kevin Durant or Draymond Green.
4. San Antonio Spurs
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There isn't a harder team to analyze than the San Antonio Spurs due to Kawhi Leonard's mysterious quad injury. If he comes back and gets anywhere close to 100 percent, the Silver and Black could be at or near the top of this list. If he can't return or is limited when he does, the Spurs probably don't belong here.
A mid-level ranking seems fair, then, especially when they're making strides without their franchise player.
LaMarcus Aldridge hasn't looked this good since his Portland days. The rotation has injected more length and athleticism through the likes of Dejounte Murray, Davis Bertans and Rudy Gay. The veteran-heavy bench might be the only reserve unit with a higher hoops IQ than the Dubs' subs. The defense is ferocious (second in efficiency), and the coaching is always first-rate with Gregg Popovich.
"They don't beat themselves," Draymond Green said, per Ward-Henninger. "You have to beat them. When you make mistakes, they make you pay—and that's no matter who they have in the lineup, which makes a difference, and it makes them tough."
If San Antonio can avoid being on the wrong end of a game-breaking run, it can exploit Golden State's propensity to be loose with the basketball (29th in turnover percentage). The Spurs can also throw a thicket of long limbs at the Warriors' perimeter scorers, and San Antonio has the size to control the glass.
Again, though, this is only an interesting matchup if Leonard is active and playing at an elite level. And even then, the Spurs might not have enough firepower to hang around. San Antonio, which boasted a top-10 attack just last season, sits in the bottom half of offensive efficiency (16th), three-point makes (27th) and three-point percentage (20th).
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Oklahoma City Thunder don't always inspire the most confidence. Just when it appears they've turned a corner, they sputter through disappointing ruts. In 2018 alone, they've suffered losses to the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers (twice) and DeMarcus Cousins-less New Orleans Pelicans.
But OKC's highs reach heights seldom seen outside of Oakland and Houston. The Thunder are 3-0 against the Warriors and Houston Rockets and a healthy plus-42 in those tilts. When Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams share the floor, OKC outscores opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions, a net rating that would rank fourth overall.
The Thunder don't have the deepest bench, and there's no great replacement for the injured Andre Roberson on the roster (rotation-high 10.0 net rating). While they still have time to solve their issues with inconsistency, they'll be up against the clock before they know it.
There are enough red flags here to stop short of deeming OKC a top-two threat. On paper, though, the Thunder look as threatening as anyone.
"They are nearly tailor-made to beat Golden State," Dieter Kurtenbach of the Bay Area News Group (h/t the Mercury News) wrote, "as their best lineup boasts an aggressive, downhill driving point guard, three long wings...and an excellent rebounder at center who can draw defenders and fouls in pick-and-roll. When the ball is moving, they're a matchup nightmare for Golden State."
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
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Credit the Cleveland Cavaliers for orchestrating an improbably productive trade deadline. They addressed glaring needs for length, athleticism, shooting and defense, all without sacrificing their best roster-building asset (the oft-discussed Brooklyn Nets' pick).
That should be enough to nudge them back into the Eastern Conference driver's seat, a position they perhaps always occupied with LeBron James on the roster. Whether it significantly narrowed the gap with Golden State could be a different story, though.
It didn't take much to improve what's still the NBA's third-worst defense. Having the likes of Rodney Hood, George Hill and Larry Nance Jr. will help, but it's doubtful they'll become key ingredients for dismantling the Dubs' offensive machine. And Cleveland can't get into a scoring race, since it lacks the firepower to keep up with Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton wrote:
"Dealing [Isaiah] Thomas ceded the possibility that the Cavs could get him back to last year's All-NBA form, which would have given them a second shot-creator on the perimeter. ... The pressing question of who the Cavaliers' third-best player is after James and [Kevin] Love remains up for debate, and that's a big downgrade from when Kyrie Irving was a part of Cleveland's big three."
Perhaps the biggest benefit of the dealing was rejuvenating James. He's the greatest singular talent in the sport, and he elevates everyone around him.
There's more room to operate alongside spacers such as Hill (career 38.4 percent from three) and Hood (37.1), and James' passing could transform Nance into an elite cutter. LeBron is averaging a whopping 32.5 points per 36 minutes through two games with his new teammates.
However, it takes more than James to topple the Dubs—he averaged 33.6 points (on 56.4 percent shooting), 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists in last year's Finals, which Cleveland lost in five games. And when you try to match Golden State's star power, the Cavs aren't as close as our No. 1 threat.
1. Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets are designed to challenge the Warriors. And that's not by accident.
"It's the only thing we think about," Rockets general manager Daryl Morey told The Ryen Russillo Show on ESPN Radio in December. "I think I'm not supposed to say that, but we're basically obsessed with, 'How do we beat the Warriors?' ... We calculated it—it's like 90 percent if we're gonna win a title, we've gotta obviously beat the Warriors at some point."
Houston's roster composition communicates as much.
The Warriors might have the greatest offense ever. The Rockets have the next-most potent attack. Five of their eight-most utilized lineups have offensive ratings of at least 117.1. For context, Golden State's league-leading mark is 113.8. The trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Eric Gordon provides 69.1 points a night, just a stone's throw shy of the 72.4 provided by Curry, Durant and Thompson.
Houston isn't as close on the defensive end, but it has climbed to ninth after finishing last season 18th. It takes long, nimble, versatile defenders to match wits with Golden State, and Houston has three of the best in Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute and PJ Tucker. With those three together, the Rockets yield a paltry 93.2 points per 100 possessions—Boston's league-best defensive rating is 100.5.
The Rockets are loaded with anti-Warriors weapons. They might have snatched the best backcourt title away from Oakland—Houston is 28-3 when Harden and Paul both play—and took down the Dubs twice in three meetings.
Granted, none of this would make Houston favored in a postseason series. It has two stars to Golden State's four and has more specialists than two-way players. But if anyone can push the Warriors, it's the Rockets—just like they planned it.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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