New York Knicks' Win-Now Rebuild Creating More Questions Than Answers
What in the heck are the New York Knicks doing?
Don't answer that, because you don't know. Plus, the answer will probably change. The Knicks have done nothing to shed light on their long-term plans in recent weeks.
Do they intend to poach the kind of superstar free agents who immediately vault them into championship contention? Are they enamored with the idea of contending for low-end playoff berths? Are they preparing to hand off the franchise to Kristaps Porzingis anytime soon?
The soon-to-be 21-year-old is the sole reason why the Knicks have a future that isn't wholly obscured by a dense smog of uncertainty and hopelessness. Without him, this offseason's impromptu about-face becomes impossible to peddle as a victory, small or large alike.
And yet, his career trajectory isn't even enough to overshadow New York's continued lack of direction.
Lackluster 180
New York expedited—abandoned, really—the process that team president Phil Jackson has championed since 2014. Cost-controlled assets like Jerian Grant and Robin Lopez were shipped out in favor of Derrick Rose, a fallen MVP on an expiring contract. And rather than chase young, or even youngish, free agents with room to grow, the front office funneled tens of millions of dollars into past-prime contributors.
A 31-year-old Joakim Noah two seasons removed from his peak was given four guaranteed years and $72 million. The 30-year-old Courtney Lee, while a billboard for traditional three-and-D prowess, got four years and $50 million. And most recently, the Knicks took a one-year flier on 26-year-old Brandon Jennings (likely) at the expense of 24-year-old Langston Galloway.
Not one of these moves is particularly detrimental from the outside. New York can live with Noah's deal in the new cap climate; Rose is a one-year rental at worst; neither Galloway nor Grant has flashed a high enough ceiling to warrant disdainful uproars over their departures; and Robin Lopez, though a contractual bargain (three years, $41.4 million), is no All-Star.
"I don't think New York, Los Angeles, they're not markets that you are going, 'OK, you're going through a rebuilding process,'" Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek said in an attempt to justify the team's current path, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy. "You have the ability to spend the money. You have attractive cities to go to. I think they're always on the win-now thought process."
"You have to understand the situation," Porzingis added, per Begley. "I'm young, but we don't have 10 years to win a championship. We got to win soon. So that's my mindset as well."
Even when abiding by this logic, it's tough to paint the onset of the Knicks' offseason as a win. They have burned through all of their cap space without getting back on the Eastern Conference map.
On paper, the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors are much better. There is likewise no guarantee New York has usurped any, let alone all, of the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat. And it should come as no surprise if one or more of the Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards end up with a better regular-season record.
The Knicks, in sum, have spent themselves into win-now mode without assuring themselves of many extra victories. They should be better than the 32-win letdown from 2015-16, but their big-picture projections could just as easily journey south.
Rose has appeared in 166 of a possible 394 regular-season contests since 2011-12. Among the 239 players to log at least 5,000 total minutes during that time, his effective field-goal percentage—combined measurement of two-point and three-point efficiency—ranks 230th.
Noah is one of the best passing bigs in NBA history. He sets good, hard screens, epitomizes end-to-end hustle and won't let the Knicks bask in losing-streak sorrows behind the scenes. But he has missed at least 15 games in three of the last four seasons, including 53 during 2015-16, and he is an awkward fit within any offense. He forfeited his starter's role under Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg and remains a wild-card shooter outside 10 feet of the basket.
Lee makes sense in New York. Opponents shot at below-average clips from beyond the arc when going up against him, and he has shown the ability to maintain an above-board three-point clip while playing inside the stuffiest of offenses (see: 37.7 percent shooting as a member of the Memphis Grizzlies). He will, however, turn 31 in October, and he has finished as a plus-contributor on defense just three times.
Jennings, while inexpensive, hasn't yet returned to form since rupturing his Achilles in January 2015—and that's saying something. He was shooting under 40 percent from the floor for his career before then and put down just 36.8 percent of his looks through 48 appearances last season.
More importantly, these most recent additions do nothing to validate New York as a premier free-agent landing spot.
Absence of Free-Agent Mystique
Joining the sweepstakes for marquee names is paramount to any team angling for open-market turnarounds.
Sit-downs with coveted players, even as a superficial courtesy, at least prove you're on the radar of those who matter at all. Anthony and Porzingis are supposed do that much for the Knicks.
At 32, Anthony is still a superstar ambassador and one of the game's best scorers, with an increasingly complementary skill set. He posted the highest assist percentage of his career as the headliner last year and, as he's shown in recent years, isn't opposed to working off the ball.
It's Porzingis, though, who should be the real draw—a burgeoning basketball prodigy who typifies everything NBA squads look for in contemporary skyscrapers. He shoots threes, protects the rim, crashes the glass and can switch onto smaller, quicker ball-handlers off screens.
Kevin Durant called Porzingis a "unicorn" in January. He wasn't wrong. Until Porzingis, no player had ever cleared 1,000 points, 125 blocks and 75 made threes during his rookie season.
Still, this wasn't enough to make the Knicks real free-agency players. Durant never took a meeting with them before announcing his decision to sign with the Golden State Warriors. And he, mind you, held court in their backyard: The Hamptons of Long Island, New York.
It's telling, too, that the Knicks gravitated toward Noah as opposed to the more versatile Al Horford. It says even more that their interest in Kent Bazemore, another high-end wing, never amounted to anything serious.
Uncertain Fit
Perhaps on some level the Knicks should be congratulated for what we can interpret as realism. They didn't hold out hope for pipe dreams. They struck, swiftly and decisively, ensuring they wouldn't be left to scrape from the bottom of the free-agency barrel.
But those are not the actions emblematic of a team that has buoyed its status around the league.
Chicago clearly didn't want Rose, who recruited Noah, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. Noah, in turn, helped sell New York to Lee, according to Berman.
Was Porzingis a point of appeal for any of these acquisitions? Or, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe entertained, has his development taken a backseat to making something, anything, out of Anthony's window?:
"But zoom out and the vision is murky. Are the Knicks going to run any triangle with Rose, a non-triangle point guard, spotting up in the corner? Are they a fast-break team? Even if they sign another wing shooter -- Courtney Lee, Eric Gordon -- can they provide Melo enough space to rampage on the block with Noah and Rose clogging things up?
"
These moves might be easier to accept if there was any clear rhyme or reason to the potential fit.
Porzingis, like Anthony, will be hard-pressed to find open space inside the arc with a pair of perimeter liabilities in the starting lineup. If Rose doesn't improve upon his career-worst success rate around the rim from last season, his non-threatening drive-and-kicks won't create easy scoring opportunities for Porzingis off the catch either.
This duo projects as an iffy pick-and-roll as well. Rose's shooting percentages in such situations (44.4 percent) won't trigger a ton of exploitable switches or double-teams, making it difficult to forge an efficient connection with a rolling or popping Porzingis.
Murky Future
The jury on these Knicks won't be returned by the end of next season—not even if they are a resounding success. And they could be.
There is talent on this team. If Porzingis makes the jump from promising prospect to genuine star, or if Noah is Noah, or Rose is Rose(ish), the Knicks are a playoff squad. But this summer should be portending something sustainable—something permanent. And it's not. More substantial turnover is unavoidable.
New York should once again have max space to sling in 2017. Rose's $21.3 million comes off the books if he's renounced, and by that time, the Knicks should have little trouble offloading Lee's or Noah's deals into cap space if they wish to try their hand at courting more superstars.
Unless the 2016-17 season is deemed an unfathomable success, another off-the-cuff reset will remain an intriguing proposition. Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Gordon Hayward (player option), Kyle Lowry (player option), Paul Millsap (player option), Chris Paul (early termination option) and Russell Westbrook, among others, will all be up for grabs. Any fringe-playoff team with cap space will have a chance to enter the contender's ring overnight.
Except the Knicks, in many ways, have less direction now than they did before it was ever apparent Jackson would let them deviate outside his famed-but-flailing triangle offense.
At least then it didn't seem like they would be irrelevant over the offseason and stuck in the throes of mediocrity during the actual season. They would build around Anthony and Porzingis, trying to swing for the fences in free agency.
If they succeeded, they would have another superstar (or two) capable of merging Anthony's prime and Porzingis' rise with a title window. If they failed, Anthony would inevitably waive his no-trade clause and this would become Porzingis' team—a squad whose livelihood is predicated on a more conventional restructure, with first-round selections that didn't belong to other general managers, as they wait out the shelf lives of powerhouses in Cleveland, Oakland and San Antonio.
Maybe it all works out in the end. All will be forgiven if New York is healthier and better than expected next season and/or another All-Star joins the cause next summer.
In the meantime, the Knicks exist somewhere in the middle of an incomplete vision, smack dab between competing and rebuilding, with no discernible path in place—and no obvious destination in sight.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
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