6 Key Games That Will Define the Indiana Pacers' 2015 Playoff Push
With their full complement of players finally healthy, the Indiana Pacers are finally experiencing the kind of success they envisioned when the season began. Since February 1, they are outscoring opponents by an average of 3.9 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That's the seventh-best mark in the league this month.
They still have some ground to make up in their hunt for the playoffs, but ESPN's Playoff Odds currently give them a 47.1 percent chance of getting there.
In addition to a strong, sustained performance, the Pacers have also had some notable wins of late, including a six-point win over the Golden State Warriors on February 22.
After that win, Luis Scola talked about their improved play and playoff prospects of late, per Wheat Hotchkiss of Pacers.com: "We’re getting closer to the playoffs, which was our ultimate goal, but we’re playing better and we’re winning games and we’re feeling better. Everything is flowing better and it looks more natural, so we’re happy. If we play this way, good things will happen."
The Pacers are currently tied with the Detroit Pistons, one game behind the Brooklyn Nets for the final playoff spot in the East, with 25 games left on their schedule.
Looking through those 25, here are six key games that will define whether the Pacers can get over the hump.
February 27, vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers
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The next game up on the Pacers' schedule, a matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, is a huge one.
Stretching back to January 25, the Pacers have won eight of their last 12 games. The Cavaliers are also rolling, going 12-2 over the same time span. When you consider the context around this team and this moment in time, this is probably the most difficult game left on the Pacers' schedule.
In an interesting twist, the Pacers are actually responsible for one of those Cleveland losses—beating the Cavaliers 103-99 on February 6.
This is another measuring-stick game for the Pacers, a chance to match themselves against one of the NBA's most talented and hottest teams.
Psychologically, it may be especially important as the Pacers' schedule is headed for a soft patch. Their next five games after this one have them playing the New York Knicks twice, the Orlando Magic and the Philadelphia 76ers, with just one really competitive matchup against the Chicago Bulls, a team that just lost Derrick Rose.
Taking another game from the Cavaliers and then using that momentum to roll through some of the Eastern Conference's least competitive teams could put them in a fantastic position for when their schedule begins to toughen up again.
March 16, vs. the Toronto Raptors
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This matchup with the Toronto Raptors, currently holding the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, comes as the Pacers emerge from that impending soft stretch in their schedule.
This kicks off the most difficult stretch remaining in the campaign—a two-week span that also has them playing the Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Houston Rockets, Washington Wizards, Milwaukee Bucks and the Dallas Mavericks.
The Pacers have already lost twice to the Raptors this season, with each defeat coming by a double-digit margin. In both losses, depth was a challenge for the Pacers—the Raptors outscored their bench 107-70 in those two games combined.
However, as long they can maintain the status quo, the Pacers will be healthier for this game than they were for either of the previous two. Part of their recent success has been getting their full complement of players back and slotting them into the more defined roles.
If the Pacers believe that their complete team is competitive with the best in the Eastern Conference, this is a chance to prove it.
March 21, vs. the Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets are one of three teams currently standing between the Pacers and the Eastern Conference's final playoff spot, along with the Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets.
Working in the Pacers' favor, the schedule affords them two more games against the Nets—two more opportunities to directly make up ground in the standings.
The Pacers beat the Nets by 25 back at the end of December, their biggest win of the season.
Although this game will be played in Indianapolis, it will likely be tougher than their matchup on the last day of March in Brooklyn. Coming into this game, the Pacers will have played the Raptors, Bulls and Cavaliers in succession. In their next three games, they get the Rockets, Wizards and Bucks.
The Nets are just 8-16 since the beginning of January. Although Brooklyn is currently ahead of the Pacers in the standings, this is the softest spot in the toughest part of the remaining schedule.
If they want to make the playoffs, the Pacers have to take advantage of this game and come out with a win.
April 3, vs. the Charlotte Hornets
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This game matters because of the standings—the Hornets are currently ahead of the Pacers. It matters because it will be the Pacers' 76th game of the year—the opportunities to close any remaining gaps will be shrinking at this point.
It also matters because of Lance Stephenson.
Even with the chaotic end to last season, the Pacers made a big push to re-sign Stephenson this summer. He chose to leave, which added a layer of emotional context to the Pacers-Hornets rivalry. Indiana has already taken two of three from the Hornets this season, with each game being tight, competitive and emotional.
Stephenson has played horribly this season, including against the Pacers—averaging 10.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists a game, on 35.5 percent shooting. It's hard to imagine anyone in the Pacers organization wishes him ill, but there is undoubtedly some pleasure to be gained each time they've beaten the Hornets and showed Stephenson just how much he left behind.
Beating the Hornets again gets the Pacers one step closer to the playoffs, and it may just provide more psychological satisfaction than any other hypothetical wins out there could.
April 5, vs. the Miami Heat
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The Miami Heat are currently ahead of the Pacers in the standings but may not be by the time this game rolls around.
As the Pacers have surged, inconsistency has plagued the Heat—just 5-5 over their last 10 games, including losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans. While the Heat just added Goran Dragic at the trade deadline, they also lost Chris Bosh for the rest of the season.
Wherever these two teams sit in the standings relative to each other, by the time April rolls around, this is a game worth focusing on. Neither team has any intention of throwing in the towel on its season, and both will be fighting tooth and nail to stay in the playoff picture.
Although many of the most prominent characters in this rivalry won't be playing—Paul George (although there is a chance he could be back in the lineup), LeBron James, Lance Stephenson, Bosh—enough animosity has been built up between these two teams to ensure that there is more at stake than just a playoff berth.
April 10, vs. the Detroit Pistons
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The Detroit Pistons are the 79th game on the Pacers' schedule this season and likely the last with direct playoff implications. The Pistons are old-time rivals, also lining up for the breakneck race on the Eastern Conference's final playoff spots.
Detroit has come back to earth somewhat from its post-Josh Smith surge and is tied with the Pacers in the standings at this moment. However, the Pistons have added some juice with the addition of Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline and have beaten both the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards since he joined the team.
This rivalry doesn't have the same anger and animosity it once had, but new faces and new matchups make it intriguing.
Jackson and George Hill make for an excellent battle in the backcourt, and the defensive stoicism of Roy Hibbert makes for an interesting comparison set against the athletic mobility of Andre Drummond.
Both of these teams are going to be in it until the end, and this game could very well decide who makes the playoffs and who gets to start preparing for the 2015 NBA draft lottery.
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