Predicting How Long Philadelphia 76ers' Losing Streak WIll Last
The cavernous gap sitting between the Philadelphia 76ers and the rest of the NBA suggests the loss-column-embracing franchise may never win a game.
The Sixers, by design, are atrocious. The team has dropped each of its first 13 games, only keeping four of those contests within single digits. Philly has the league's worst offensive rating and overall net rating, both by considerable margins.
The team has 69 games left on its schedule. Vegas doesn't like Philly's odds in any of them.
Five more losses and the Sixers will match the 2009-10 New Jersey Nets for the worst start in NBA history at 0-18. That's starting to feel inevitable and, in some ways, appropriate.
"The franchise is accustomed to inglorious records," wrote Sports Illustrated's Nelson Rice. "Last season, they tied the 2009-10 Cavaliers' mark of 26 straight losses and the '72-73 Sixers still hold the distinction of owning the worst record over a full season (9-73). This year’s team might eclipse both feats."
One win is all it will to take to stop this miserable slide, but securing that victory will not be easy. Philly's upcoming schedule is short on breaks, plus easy games for most teams aren't exactly winnable contests for this group.
Still, there are five games offering some semblance of hope. We'll run through those five matchups, and then peak into our crystal ball to see when the Sixers are most likely to finally enter the win column.
November 26 vs. Brooklyn Nets
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Sandwiched between games against the Portland Trail Blazers, Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, this home date with the Brooklyn Nets marks Philly's next real chance to avoid matching the Brooklyn Nets' own record for early-season incompetence.
The young, athletic Sixers pose an uncomfortable matchup for the aging, plodding Nets. Only the Golden State Warriors average more possessions per 48 minutes than Philly's 100.01. Under new head coach Lionel Hollins, the Nets play at the ninth-slowest pace (94.45).
The Sixers are also set to catch the Nets in the middle of a free-fall. Brooklyn will arrive in Philly having dropped six of its last seven games. The Nets' lone win during that stretch was a two-point escape over an Oklahoma City Thunder team missing Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, among others.
Brooklyn was an Eastern Conference semifinalist last season, but it has struggled to gain any momentum under Hollins. The Nets are tied for 14th in defensive efficiency and tied for 16th at the opposite end.
"They're as close to average as you can get," wrote The Brooklyn Game's Devin Kharpertian, "without one significant positive or negative trait."
With length on the perimeter to bother Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, plus the explosiveness Brooklyn lacks on its starting frontcourt, the Sixers should at least give the Nets at a game.
December 3 at Minnesota Timberwolves
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On paper, the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-9) don't appear too far removed from the Philadelphia 76ers' world. Both teams are looking to rebuild their ranks, though Minnesota hasn't followed Philly's everything-must-go model.
At full strength, the Timberwolves have more than enough to take down the Sixers. Minnesota might not be very good (minus-10.0 net rating) , but it's not Philly bad. Of course, the divide between them is getting harder to spot as the Wolves' injury report continues to grow.
Floor general Ricky Rubio has been sidelined since early November by a severely sprained ankle. There is no timetable for his return, and he said he hopes to make it back by Christmas, per the Star Tribune's Jerry Zgoda. Veteran sharpshooter Kevin Martin is out indefinitely with a fractured wrist. And bruising big man Nikola Pekovic has been battling his own wrist problem.
The Wolves didn't have great depth to begin with, and these injuries have forced them to lean heavier on rookies Andrew Wiggins (28.8 minutes) and Zach LaVine (19.1) than they had originally planned. That developmental time could prove beneficial in the long run, but there are obvious drawbacks from having two teenagers play significant roles.
Minnesota has pushed the tempo this season, which should play right into Philly's hands. The athletic advantages the Timberpups typically enjoy might be hard to exploit against the Sixers. If Philadelphia can avoid getting bogged down in the half court and finds some motivation from the fact a defeat in Minnesota would mean a record-tying 18th consecutive defeat, this could get interesting.
December 6 at Detroit Pistons
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The Sixers haven't caught any breaks this season—they dropped games with the Chicago Bulls and Houston Rockets by a total of three points—so it seems fitting that the Thunder's superstars could be ready just in time for their matchup with the Sixers on December 5.
That could push Philly's wait back another night, leaving the Sixers hoping for a miracle on the second half of a back-to-back. On second thought, "miracle" might be a strong word against Stan Van Gundy's Detroit Pistons. They are 3-10 on the season, with only an overtime victory over the depleted Thunder to show for their last eight games.
Detroit struggles to score with any consistency. The Pistons' 97.4 points per 100 possessions are the fourth fewest in the league. Their 41.0 field-goal percentage trails every team other than Philly. That's obviously an issue, and Detroit's 15th-ranked defense isn't good enough to compensate for the lack of offense.
Of the five players who have started at least 10 games, three are shooting below 40 percent from the field—including potential franchise centerpiece Andre Drummond (39.7). Only two rotation regulars have even a 45.0 field goal percentage: Greg Monroe (48.6) and part-timer Jonas Jerebko (51.8).
"I think, in large part our shooting percentages reflect our inability to get great shots," Van Gundy said, per MLive.com's David Mayo.
Given the Sixers' own offensive deficiencies, they might need to squeak by on a night when both they and their opponents are stuck in the mud. And Detroit's scorers have stalled like few others in the league.
December 10 at Atlanta Hawks
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The Atlanta Hawks shouldn't be part of this discussion.
The other teams included here are past their prime or won't reach it for a while. Atlanta's talented trio of Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford are all between the ages of 26 and 29. In the second season under Gregg Popovich disciple Mike Budenholzer's watch, the Hawks should be ready to hit their peak.
"This may be your sleeper team in the East," Fox Sports Ohio's Sam Amico wrote before the season started. "All the pieces are there."
But all of the pieces have been there before. And this franchise has found itself stuck in the same place it currently sits: good, but a long ways from great.
The Hawks (6-5) should be better than they have performed. They are the only team to have suffered a double-digit loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Atlanta is one of only two playoff teams from last season to have dropped a game with the Charlotte Hornets. The Hawks also have an inexcusable loss to the Los Angeles Lakers staining their resume.
Every once in a while, Atlanta is good for a head-scratcher. And that's how these losing streaks often end. When the Washington Wizards snapped their 12-game losing skid at the start of the 2012-13 season, they didn't pick off a bottom-feeder. They outlasted the 33-win Portland Trail Blazers.
The Hawks probably won't be the Sixers' first victim, but if Philly scores a surprise win as its first, Atlanta is capable of being on the disappointing end of that scenario.
December 15 vs. Boston Celtics
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The Sixers couldn't get past the Boston Celtics in their first meeting of the season, but they at least made their Atlantic Division rivals sweat.
The two teams were deadlocked midway through the third quarter, before Boston slowly edged its way to a 101-90 victory. While some may want to chalk that up as the Celtics over looking their opponents, the players said they came in expecting a fight.
"We know Philadelphia's desperate for a win," Brandon Bass told reporters after the game, "and we knew they were going to come out and play hard."
The Celtics, like every other team in the league, have better players than the Sixers. Philly doesn't have a distributor like Rajon Rondo, a scorer like Jeff Green or floor-spacing bigs like Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. (Although, Joel Embiid might be able to check that last box once he finds his way back from a foot fracture.)
But this isn't about on-paper talent alone. If it was, Philly would be counting its lottery blessings after an 0-82 campaign next summer.
Matchups can shift the outcome of games, and the Sixers have a few that could work to their advantage. The 6'6" Michael Carter-Williams can clog up Rondo's passing lanes as much as any defender can. And Boston's lack of rim protection (no one is averaging a block per game) could be exploited by the NBA's second- and seventh-most active drivers (Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten, respectively).
If the Sixers can stop dribble penetrations on the perimeter and have an energetic Nerlens Noel lurking around the basket, they could give the Celtics an even tougher test than last time.
When Will It End?
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There are no safe predictions when it comes to the Sixers, but if there were, that road tilt with the Timberwolves would have to rank near the top of the list. Minnesota is 1-6 since Rubio went down, with those six losses coming by an average of 20.8 points.
If there's a likely win on the Sixers' schedule, that might be it.
But history has left a couple hints about how these streaks typically end: at home and against a relatively unlikely opponent.
The aforementioned Wizards' win over the Blazers happened in Washington. The Nets ended their 18-game nosedive by knocking off a 44-win Charlotte Bobcats team in New Jersey. After dropping their first 17 games in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, the Los Angeles Clippers enjoyed a home win over the 27-23 Sacramento Kings.
The Nets look like they could be that opponent for the Sixers.
All does not seem well in Brooklyn. Joe Johnson said his team has been "very selfish," per ESPN New York's Ohm Youngmisuk. The Nets can't get former All-Star Brook Lopez going, no matter which buttons Hollins has pressed. Andrei Kirilenko's disappointing tenure in Brooklyn appears to be coming to an end.
On the court, the Nets don't have a great interior defense (60.1 percent shooting allowed at the rim), nor the young athletes to run up and down with the Sixers. If Brooklyn cannot control the pace, Philly could race its way to win No. 1 on its 15th try of the season.
So Sixers fans should circle that November 26 matchup with the Nets. But they should do it in pencil, because guarantees are impossible to make with this team.
If this game gets away from the Sixers, it could be a while before another possibility comes along. Philly fans suffered through a 26-game losing streak last season, and this one may not be much shorter if the Sixers cannot shock the Nets.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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