Fantasy Football: How To Recover from a Terrible Draft (QB Edition)

So your draft was held last night and you rostered a terrible team. It happens.

Maybe you’d never done an auction before and got slaughtered.

Maybe you just didn’t draft smartly.

Or maybe, your Internet cut out for the first hour of your draft, but as commissioner you couldn’t pause the draft allowing it to continue and maybe, just maybe you ended up with a roster lacking any star power, Peyton Hillis as your top RB, Dez Bryant as your WR1 and…Jacoby Ford as your WR2. A little specific, I know.

So whether or not you bombed your draft for any of the reasons above or simply want to get a leg up on your competition, here’s a guide to getting back into contention:

Note: RB, WR and TE guides will be posted soon and linked onto here as well.

Introduction

First and foremost, you have to go with upside players. To get to the playoffs where anything can happen, you don't need to be the best team; you just need to get a little lucky. To get there it's going to take smart trades, selling high on players and uncovering gems before anyone else does.

The following slideshow will give you four players at QB to:

Trade for Right Now

These guys are owned in every league but I honestly believe that their values are about to soar to elite status.

Pick up in Most Standard Leagues

They are guys who could be starters in your league but are not being valued as such right now. Get them before they hit it big.

Stash or Keep Tabs On

These are players that could come out of nowhere and post big fantasy seasons. These players are owned in under 15 percent of leagues, and should be picked up or at least monitored.

Ditch while They Still Have Value

These players are rostered in almost every league but are due for a big downfall in my opinion. Trade them while you still can get a worthwhile return.

Trade For: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Fellow B/R Contributor Dan Israeli wrote a compelling article on why Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has the opportunity to jump to an elite class of fantasy QBs alongside Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers this season. To highlight some of the points from his article:

While his real-life accomplishments (two-time Super Bowl champion) may overshadow his "fantasy achievements," Roethlisberger has quietly become one of the best and most steady QBs in the game. His 3,200-yard/17-TD stat line from 2011 may look average to the average eye, but keep in mind that Big Ben missed the first six weeks of the season serving suspension. Extrapolated to a full season, Roethlisberger was on pace to easily surpass 4,200 yards and 23 TDs, a line that would have put him among the fantasy elite at QB.

Most of all, Roethlisberger is someone to wager your money on simply because of the weapons surrounding him. He’s always had a talented cast around him but this season the Steelers are loaded. Mike Wallace, a prototypical deep threat who recently projected himself for 2,000 receiving yards in 2011, has emerged as one of the top young talents in the league. Ol’ Reliable Hines Ward continues to be one of Big Ben’s favorite targets while young guns Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown have proven capable pass-catchers and look to make the leap into relevance this season.

Roethlisberger has all the makings to be elite this season. In a year where fantasy experts have preached waiting on quarterback, what better way than to grab the sixth or seventh QB off the board and receive a No. 1- or No. 2-caliber season.

Pick Up: Eli Manning (NYG)

Last season, New York Giants QB Eli Manning finished with 4,002 yards and 31 TDs, both top-five finishes. So basically, in the two statistical measurements that determine fantasy QB excellence, the younger Manning was elite.

Then there were the interceptions—25 of them—the number that everyone points to.

Instead, I point to the number 24: the total number of interceptions that Manning threw in 2008 and 2009 combined. By no means am I saying that Manning did not deserve to throw that many interceptions last season but he was rather unlucky. According to ESPN analyst KC Joyner aka The Football Scientist, 52.1 percent of Manning’s “potential interceptions” (passes that could’ve been picked off, tips, etc.) were converted, the fourth-highest clip among starting QBs.

Manning is a well-documented risk-taker, especially with the deep ball but with talented wideouts like Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, who form one of the top WR tandems in the league this season, it’s understandable why. As the targets increase for his two sure-handed receivers, last year’s interceptions could very well turn into 30-plus-yard gains.

It’s going to take some luck for Manning to make a leap into the fantasy elite this season, however he has a solid offensive line and great weapons. Imagine if he reduced his interception numbers to 2008/2009 levels while maintaining the rest of his stat line; it’d be one of the biggest steals of the year…which is exactly what we’re looking for.

Deeper League Alert: Colt McCoy (CLE) has looked solid this preseason and could be in line for a nice Year 2 bump as he gets familiar with his options at WR.

Stash: Alex Smith (SF)

I’m a San Francisco 49ers fan so believe me, I’m sick of the Alex Smith era as well.

However, while I hate to see my childhood team continue to struggle with Smith, a former top overall draft pick, under center, I will admit that he enters the 2011 season with his best chance for success.

First off, new head coach Jim Harbaugh is a renowned QB developer and while he usually works with younger players, he could very well groom Smith into an adequate starter. Just to throw it in there, this is the first time in his career that Smith has worked with an offensive-minded coach.

However, the tweak that has me most excited for Smith’s fantasy potential this season is the 49ers conversion to a hybrid West Coast offense. While Frank Gore will still be heavily relied on, the passing game will now revolve around quick passes, getting the ball into playmakers’ hands and allowing them to rack up yards after the catch.

And frankly, the 49ers are stacked with playmakers, so it just might work.

TE Vernon Davis is freakishly athletic and could vault himself into one of the NFL’s top receivers if he gets the chance to succeed. Newly acquired Braylon Edwards, a former WR1 with Cleveland, gives Smith a big target to hit down the sidelines and then there’s Michael Crabtree, who’s shown flashes of brilliance over his short career but has never put together a complete campaign.

This could be the season that everything comes together under Harbaugh. With the new offense, I think a significant improvement is in store for Smith’s stat line. He’s hardly owned in any league and if you’ve got a roster spot and poor QB, Smith could very well work his way into becoming roster-able and start-able.

Ditch: Josh Freeman (TB)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman has been one of the most-hyped fantasy QBs heading into the 2011 season and is even being drafted as a starter in quite a few leagues.

I don’t get it.

While I like Tampa Bay as a potential sleeper this season and think Josh Freeman a fine NFL QB, he is not what you want in fantasy. Last season, Freeman surpassed 275 passing yards in a game just twice, never amassing 300 yards while failing to break the 200-yard mark six times.

Fans point to his “incredible accuracy” and his impressive 25-to-six TD-to-INT ratio that rivaled New England Patriots QB Tom Brady. However, according to the aforementioned “potential interception” research by ESPN analyst KC Joyner, Freeman was rather lucky last season as just 19.4 percent (six of 31) were converted, the lowest rate of any starting QB in the NFL.

Lastly, beyond Mike Williams, who does Freeman have to throw to? Arrelious Benn and Dezmon Briscoe are trendy sleepers, not established WRs. This season, Freeman’s go-to target, Williams, enters the year as a marked man, someone defense will even look to double-team. Freeman made the most out of little last season but unless Benn, Briscoe or Michael Spurlock come to a forefront in 2011, he could be in some trouble.