Power Ranking the NFL's Hottest New Head Coaching Candidates
Sustained success in the NFL often starts when a franchise is at its lowest point. And the rockiest bottom comes on Black Monday, a time when the reset button gets smashed.
Once bitter feelings of disappointment subside and the funeral-like air leaves the building as offices are cleaned out, a new emotion quickly takes over: optimism.
The general manager and owner have a blank canvas in front of them, and they desperately need to hire the right painter. It's a franchise- and career-defining decision. Hope follows the darkest hour, and it can either be fueled or dashed.
When a team's judgment is off, the canvas-painting process can start again abruptly. Just look at the Buffalo Bills, a team that fired Rex Ryan after not quite two full seasons. Or the Cleveland Browns, a team that hasn't had a head coach enter his third year since Romeo Crennel's four-season tenure from 2005 to 2008.
With six jobs already open—the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers—plenty of familiar faces will take their spin on the annual January interview circuit, some more desired than others. New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' name has never been hotter. Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan should finally be given his first sideline boss job.
There are also heavy hitters available like Tom Coughlin and Jon Gruden, who will demand plenty of money and even more team control. The bright lights of Los Angeles will beckon, and in Coughlin's case, so will the comforts of an environment he knows well in Jacksonville. Those are just a few of the names you're about to hear discussed ad nauseam in the days and weeks to come.
The following 10 head coaching candidates were ranked based on both short- and long-term success in their current roles. Other factors unique to each coach were also considered, including how well the coach worked with and molded young talent, or his ability to adjust when dealing with roster changes due to injuries or offseason moves.
Honorable mentions: Jaguars interim head coach Doug Marrone, Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive coordinator Mike Smith, Seattle Seahawks offensive line coach Tom Cable, Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin and Washington Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay.
10. Darrell Bevell, Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator
1 of 10
Let's start with the good from the Darrell Bevell experience in 2016. The Seattle Seahawks scored 25-plus points in nine of their 16 regular-season games. That's a high bar to reach during any campaign, especially after quarterback Russell Wilson was a hobbled version of himself for much of the first half.
Their rushing offense has sputtered at times, but considering their offensive line woes, it has still adjusted well to life after Marshawn Lynch. The pounding pinball running back retired after 2015, and his replacement, Thomas Rawls, struggled with multiple injuries.
Bevell kept things rolling by maximizing the talent of whoever he had to plug in. Christine Michael produced a 106-yard game back in Week 3 before Seattle released him midseason. Rawls also went off for 106 yards in Week 13, and rookie CJ Prosise recorded 103 yards from scrimmage in Week 10 before scoring twice in Week 11.
A Bevell offense can swing a heavy rushing hammer. Doug Baldwin's rapid emergence as a premier slot receiver should also be included among the high points of his Seahawks tenure. If Bevell could ever figure out a way to protect the quarterback, he would already be a head coach.
The 46-year-old has been the offensive coordinator in Seattle since 2011, which means he's overseen all of Wilson's career. Wilson has been sacked 40-plus times in each of the past four seasons. During that stretch, only the Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill has gone down more, according to Pro Football Focus.
In fairness to Bevell, Wilson's weekly pummeling is largely due to inept and slow-developing personnel and the Seahawks' salary-cap choices. But whether Bevell becomes a head coach may rest with how much teams weigh that flaw compared to his accomplishments.
Bevell's play-calling has been questioned, most glaringly after the infamous decision in Super Bowl 49 to pass on the goal line with another championship in Seattle's grasp. But overall, he's coordinated a top-10 scoring offense during three of his four years with Wilson.
9. Matt Patricia, New England Patriots Defensive Coordinator
2 of 10
When admiring how the New England Patriots have dominated their way to eight straight AFC East titles, we usually think about their offense first. That's going to happen when Tom Brady, one of the best passers in NFL history, is your quarterback.
But the beauty of New England's annual steamrolling through the AFC is that it's been done in different ways throughout the years. And in 2016, without Brady for four games and tight end Rob Gronkowski for much of the season, the Patriots have often won through the Matt Patricia's defensive wall.
The aeronautical engineering major just finished his fifth year as the Patriots' defensive coordinator, which featured significant roster losses both before and during the season. In the offseason, they shipped defensive end Chandler Jones to the Arizona Cardinals after he produced a team-high 12.5 sacks in 2015. Prior to the trade deadline, New England sent outside linebacker Jamie Collins to the Cleveland Browns.
Despite the personnel overhaul, nothing changed for Patricia's unit. It bent at times, but it hasn't broken. As a result, the Patriots allowed a league-low 15.6 points per game.
Some teams with openings may find it difficult to assess Patricia as a candidate without knowing how much influence he had over the Patriots' defensive performance. Head coach Bill Belichick is well-known as one of the league's foremost defensive masterminds.
But that shouldn't be viewed as a negative or a blow to Patricia's candidacy. Patricia has been calling the defensive plays since 2012, and he has been on the Patriots coaching staff far beyond that. He began his time on Belichick's staff back in 2004, and he's been focused on defense since 2006.
That's a decade of learning and developing under one of the best coaches in league history. At the age of 42, Patricia is now ready to ascend the ladder.
Editor's Note: Per ESPN's Adam Schefter the Chargers have requested to interview Patricia while NFL.com's Ian Rapoport says it's likely the Rams will try to interview him as well.
8. Anthony Lynn, Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator (and Interim Head Coach)
3 of 10
Had the Buffalo Bills kept Rex Ryan around past Black Monday, it would have been shocking and mind-numbing. But the fact he didn't even make it to Black Monday shows just how much Bills ownership had grown tired of the lackluster product on the field. They had a coach who loudly raised expectations each year and each week, but then a thud repeatedly followed.
What happens now? When a team fires its head coach before Black Monday, the front office has a head start on the hiring cycle. Even one extra week can be valuable, as the Bills can now begin to lay the groundwork for their future, one that hopefully will result in a playoff game for the first time in 18 years.
But that process will likely be a show—only optics.
Their current coach will probably be the future coach, too, with the Bills leaning heavily toward removing the interim tag from Anthony Lynn.
Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News reports there's "every indication" that, although the Bills will interview other candidates, their search won't last long. Lynn will become their next head coach, and when that happens, he'll also be Buffalo's fourth head coach over the past six years.
There are two reasons for that conclusion to whatever search the Bills will conduct.
The first is simple: Lynn is damn good. Upon being promoted to offensive coordinator after the dismissal of Greg Roman following Week 2, he created a rushing behemoth.
Lynn's offense led the league in rushing, and it wasn't close. The Bills averaged 164.4 rushing yards per game (and 5.3 per carry). The Dallas Cowboys finished second, averaging 149.8 yards per game.
The second reason is simple, too, but also mildly depressing with Bills fans already bracing for another long winter. As Carucci reported, Bills general manager Doug Whaley is going to oversee the hiring of a third coach. Naturally, Whaley's survival instincts will kick in, and he likely won't hire anyone who demands control of the roster.
That automatically eliminates any of the rock star candidates (think Coughlin, McDaniels and Gruden). Or really, anyone who's not thirsty enough for their first head-coaching gig to yield authority. Enter Lynn.
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7. Vance Joseph, Miami Dolphins Defensive Coordinator
4 of 10
There may be some hesitance about Vance Joseph since he just completed his first full season as a defensive coordinator with the Miami Dolphins. But the unease should melt away fast because of a highly valuable coaching characteristic.
It's imperative for teams to extract as much production as possible from highly paid veterans. When those players fade, it's bad for both the win column and the bottom line.
Joseph's scheme and leadership have resulted in quick turnarounds for several Dolphins veterans, most notably defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Nebraska product finished 2015 with 34 defensive stops, according to Pro Football Focus; in 2016, he boosted that number to 43.
Then there's middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, whose career seemed to be derailing due to a combination of injuries and misuse. Alonso went from averaging 3.9 tackles per game in 2015 to 7.7 in 2016. Defensive end Cameron Wake produced his fourth career double-digit sack season, and he'll turn 35 years old at the end of January.
Joseph has navigated those veteran reclamation projects while coaxing a bounce-back season out of cornerback Byron Maxwell. Maxwell allowed a 100.7 passer rating in coverage during a flameout with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2015, per PFF, but that improved to 71.6 under Joseph's watch.
Editor's Note: Per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, he is expected to be considered a candidate for the Broncos job.
6. Scott Linehan, Dallas Cowboys Offensive Coordinator
5 of 10
Heading into 2016, there were significant questions about the Dallas Cowboys offense. After quarterback Tony Romo injured his back during a preseason game, the Cowboys were thought to be in a death spiral.
Kellen Moore, their original No. 2 quarterback, had already broken his right ankle during a preseason practice. Thus, the Cowboys were decimated by injuries at the game's most important position before taking one meaningful snap in 2016. That came after a 2015 season during which Dallas went 1-11 without Romo as its starting quarterback. So the Cowboys were screwed again, right? Nope.
As impressive as Dak Prescott has been, he was a raw rookie quarterback catapulted into a starting role. Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan laid out the ideal blueprint to bring his young starter along slowly. The result? Only three losses all season, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Cowboys fielded the league's fifth-ranked offense with a rookie who wasn't viewed as NFL-ready prior to training camp. In Linehan's scheme, Prescott went out and averaged 8.0 yards per attempt while throwing just four interceptions with 23 touchdowns.
That's why Prescott is an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate and Linehan has likely earned his second shot at being a head coach.
5. Jim Schwartz, Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Coordinator
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Going the retread route is often thought of as safe, but also boring and at times disastrous. But being conservative and leaning toward experience can lead to quick turnarounds, too.
The Kansas City Chiefs will tell you Andy Reid has worked out just fine, thanks. And the Denver Broncos won a Super Bowl under Gary Kubiak after he fell out of favor with the Houston Texans. On the other side, there's Rex Ryan, who floundered fast for the Buffalo Bills.
We may see where Jim Schwartz falls on that spectrum. It's likely an owner ties himself to the Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator's combination of experience and aggression.
Much like McDaniels, Schwartz is well-known as a head coach for redefining the art of the fist pump. Also much like McDaniels, he's not known for much success as a head coach. During the five seasons Schwartz spent as the Detroit Lions' sideline general, his team went to the playoffs only once.
But he remains one of the league's top defensive minds among coordinators. In 2014, his Bills defense allowed only 312.2 yards per game (fourth). The Eagles faded in every respect down the stretch in 2016, but for much of the season, they were among the top 10 in both average yards and points allowed.
Schwartz's Wide 9 scheme is best suited for a strong defensive front. That would make the Jaguars a logical fit, with defensive tackle Malik Jackson anchoring the front four.
4. Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta Falcons Offensive Coordinator
7 of 10
There's only one Shanahan to hire this offseason. And Mike—the two-time Super Bowl champion head coach—has said it's not him.
"I think it'd be a lot smarter to take Kyle than it would me," the elder Shanahan said of his son, Kyle, when speaking to Colin Cowherd of Fox Sports Radio (via NFL.com). "I think I would give an organization maybe a lot more input from top to bottom. You know, the little things that are the difference in the structure of the organization."
While his father seems to be pushing for an executive job of some kind, the time certainly feels right for Kyle to get his first head coaching opportunity. The younger Shanahan has consistently organized top-tier offenses wherever he's landed. He just finished his ninth NFL season as an offensive coordinator, and his units have ranked in the top 10 six times.
In 2016, he drew up an Atlanta Falcons offense that averaged 415.8 yards per game throughout the regular season (No. 2 in the NFL), and his quarterback, Matt Ryan, is an MVP candidate.
The 37-year-old has been seasoned for many years as a coordinator. That experience should erase any lingering questions about his age.
Editor's Note: MMQB's Albert Breer reports the Jacksonville Jaguars plan to interview Shanahan this Friday (1/6), and ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Broncos have also requested permission to interview him.
3. Jon Gruden, Former Head Coach
8 of 10
As an NFL analyst, I'm obligated to list Jon Gruden here and rank him high. But the odds of Gruden leaving the Monday Night Football booth where he gets to scream "Spider 2 Y Banana!" seem low.
The standard caveats apply, though, as they have nearly every offseason when Gruden's name begins to pop up. He's still considered an elusive rock star head coach. So if a deep-pocketed owner in a rich market were to heave enough money in Gruden's direction, would he cave?
Oh, and would it also help if that not-so-hypothetical owner also had a promising young quarterback on his roster?
We're about to find out the answer to that question. Gruden has already publicly issued his usual display of disinterest, saying he's happy in the MNF booth and doesn't want to end an absence from the sidelines that started in 2008.
"There's a lot of chips on the table," he told ESPN's Mike and Mike recently, via the New York Post and Cameron DaSilva of Fox Sports. "But right now, I have no intentions of coaching. I really enjoy what I'm doing and I feel like I'm really close to the fire. I'm getting plenty of satisfaction out of doing what I'm doing.”
The Los Angeles Rams will surely attempt to lure Gruden away from that thinking through a combination of their large-market appeal and the presence of Jared Goff, a No. 1 overall pick quarterback who's entering only his second year in 2017.
Money has never been something Rams owner Stan Kroenke seems to spend much time thinking about. He'll shower it on anyone who can erase the fan apathy that's already closing in as his rudderless team tries to find footing in Los Angeles.
2. Josh McDaniels, New England Patriots Offensive Coordinator
9 of 10
Josh McDaniels is perhaps best known for his post-game fist-pumping technique as a head coach. Just watching his exuberance as he led the Denver Broncos in 2009 was great preparation for a cardio workout.
Although he had an advanced offensive mind then just as he does now, McDaniels was overwhelmed and underprepared to be a head coach at the age of just 33. His team fizzled to an 8-8 record in 2009 after winning six straight games to begin the year. In 2010, he was fired after Week 13—the Broncos had won only three games up to that point.
He's been patient after landing back in familiar territory with the New England Patriots as their offensive coordinator. The NFL often only offers two chances to be a head coach, so McDaniels likely didn't want to rush into his next opportunity before learning from past mistakes.
That's why the now-40-year-old has hovered in New England for so long. He's alternated between being the lukewarm coordinator on the job market and the white-hot candidate.
But even as a top head-coaching candidate, McDaniels' interest in leaving the Patriots has been moderate at best. He's told multiple people that "he's intent on waiting out the right opportunity," according to NFL.com's Conor Orr. And the right opportunity might be on the same sideline he already roams. McDaniels could slide in as Bill Belichick's successor in New England, though it's uncertain whether he'd have quarterback Tom Brady by his side at that point.
Lately, though, it seems McDaniels might be warming up to the idea of moving on. That may be due to the appeal of having success in the large market offered by the Los Angeles Rams and their opening. His name is especially hot after orchestrating a top-five offense even with Brady suspended for four games and the Patriots down to third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett at one point.
Ben Volin of the Boston Globe reports McDaniels is likely to be chased by several teams, and he will probably move on.
Editor's Note: Albert Breer of MMQB reports that the Rams, Jaguars and 49ers have all reached out to the Patriots about McDaniels.
1. Tom Coughlin, Former Head Coach
10 of 10
You'll get a different answer every time you ask about what went wrong with the Jacksonville Jaguars during Gus Bradley's tenure as head coach.
Some will say it was youth that didn't mature fast enough. Many more will blame roster construction, especially miscast starting quarterback Blake Bortles, whose regression in 2016 ultimately cost Bradley his job. Bortles' wonky and inconsistent mechanics led to 16 interceptions and only 6.2 yards per attempt.
But the other common answer for the Jaguars' tailspin after some flashes of promise in 2015 was a lack of team discipline. That's Tom Coughlin's specialty.
Coughlin never hid a desire to get back into coaching after his time with the New York Giants ended. Even at the age of 70 (he'll turn 71 before the 2017 season begins), he still has an itch that needs to be scratched.
He may be the right solution for a roster filled with young talent and in need of the classic hard-line direction that can come from the ol' football coach. If you walk in five minutes early to one of Coughlin's meetings, you're still 10 minutes late.
That's the kind of culture Coughlin could install, and the Jaguars seem to be a fine match both professionally and personally. Coughlin would be returning to his head coaching roots after leading the expansion Jaguars to four straight playoff berths, with the first coming in only his second season. Coughlin also still has a home in the Jacksonville area, which is important for the family man.
He already interviewed with the Jaguars on Dec. 28, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport (via NFL.com's Conor Orr). The fit seems too perfect, which naturally means there's no way this happens.
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