Fantasy Football Week 1: Sunday Morning Gameday Preview
Welcome to the first Sunday of the 2016 NFL regular season. It's already time to start stressing over our fantasy teams. Don't get us wrong; it's the fun kind of stress—the tilt as they say in poker—which drives the energy of fantasy football.
In this piece we take a comprehensive look at each game on the Sunday slate, focusing on all of the fantasy-relevant players for managers to consider.
Did you draft the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski in hopes of leveraging meaningful margins at the tight end position each week? "Gronkey Kong" is dealing with a balky hamstring that will keep him out of Sunday night's tilt with the Arizona Cardinals, per Mike Reiss of ESPN. It's alright, though, as we offer several key streaming options to consider at the position.
At quarterback we find a number of choice matchups to consider for the Sunday slate, namely the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford and the Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr.
Join us in discussing each of the 13 games for Sunday in this comprehensive overview of the slate.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans
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The Chicago Bears head south to the take on the Houston Texans in a rare meeting for these cross-conference foes. The Texans are sizable home favorites, per Odds Shark.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Bears
QB Jay Cutler
The man of many unenthused faces, Cutler could struggle given the Texans' talented pass rush and capable secondary. We find Cutler difficult to trust outside of two-quarterback formats.
RB Jeremy Langford
Talk of a committee has given way to Langford dominating preseason touches and earning real upside value given workload potential. Even as the matchup isn't ideal, few backs earn upwards of 20 touches, thus Langford is a solid RB2 option.
WR Alshon Jeffery
A big and talented target who has had durability issues, Jeffery is a must-start asset as long as he's healthy.
WR Kevin White
Injury concerns have followed White throughout his career, but he's set to make his NFL debut in Houston. Despite real upside, we're sitting White and letting him earn his way into starting status.
TE Zach Miller
Miller is a top-15 option at the position, but has a low-floor given a lack of sample size of success with Cutler.
Bears Defense
While we like the upgrades at linebacker the team made in the offseason, a depleted secondary fells the fantasy upside and removes this group from consideration as a starting commodity.
Texans
QB Brock Osweiler
We like Osweiler's upside against the Bears' fallible pass defense, a group that ceded the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing arms last season.
RB Lamar Miller
A clear-cut RB1 asset, Miller is a must-start tailback in all formats thanks to his rare combination of workload and big-play potential.
WR DeAndre Hopkins
"Nuk" is a special talent and faces a depleted secondary at home, all nice ingredients for a big game from a true WR1.
WR Will Fuller
A skilled deep-ball specialist who thrived working with Osweiler facing the blitz in the preseason, Fuller has deep-league appeal for now.
Texans Defense
With J.J. Watt likely to go and Jadeveon Clowney primed to break out, this group delivers top-10 upside for this home game against a sloppy offensive foe.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
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The Cleveland Browns might not mind losing this game since they already own the Philadelphia Eagles' top draft pick for next season. With the revival effort of Robert Griffin III set to begin and rookie Carson Wentz behind center for the Birds, this game has plenty of narrative interest to consider.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Browns
QB Robert Griffin III
With 40 rushing yards on five carries and several nice vertical bombs delivered in the preseason, there is some reason to believe Griffin could again become a fantasy-relevant asset. For now, however, we're letting him earn his way onto fantasy rosters.
RB Isaiah Crowell
The majority of the early down workload will go to Crowell, who could thrive via volume, if not talent. We expect low-end flex results for Crowell.
RB Duke Johnson
The upside for this playmaker is exciting as a receiver, but it's unclear how much work he'll get with Griffin lacking a history of targeting backs. For now, Johnson is a borderline flex play in standard and a fine flex in point-per-reception leagues.
WR Corey Coleman
This rookie playmaker led the NCAA in touchdowns and could form a fun rapport with fellow Baylor alum Griffin. The workload is a bit of a mystery, but we guess Coleman leads the team in targets this week. For a deep-league play or in daily leagues, converted quarterback Terrelle Pryor offers interesting big-play upside.
TE Gary Barnidge
A riveting breakout in 2015 has led to a somewhat soft market for Barnidge given Griffin's lack of passing buzz from the offseason. A deft playmaker in the red zone, he's a must-start option at a shallow and depleted position.
Browns Defense
We can safely avoid this group in 10- and 12-team leagues, but deeper formats might consider the upside solely based on facing a rookie quarterback.
Eagles
QB Carson Wentz
Stashing Wentz in a keeper format or a two-quarterback league makes sense, but using him in a standard format is too risky for us. The natural growing pains any rookie faces often come with consequences, but even more so for a raw rookie make a major leap in competition.
RB Ryan Mathews
Top 10 in both yards before and after contact last season, Mathews is a RB2 option with real RB1 upside in this matchup.
Don’t be surprised if Sproles leads the team in receiving this week, as he's a friendly target for a rookie quarterback in the flats.
WR Jordan Matthews
Matthews is a nice upside play, but could have a somewhat low floor given Wentz' first action. That said, the Browns struggle to defend the slot, thus the upside angle. We don't trust any other Eagles' receiver this week.
TE Zach Ertz
Another friendly target for a rookie is the tight end over the middle. This can read as a crutch argument given it's contextual, but Ertz is among the team's top targets and merits TE1 consideration.
Eagles Defense
We like this group's menacing pass rush and playmaking safeties, thus they enter the starting tier at the position in all formats.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
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The Buffalo Bills travel south to Baltimore to face the Ravens in a meeting of AFC foes. A middling implied point total and tight spread suggests this could be a dud in fantasy terms, but we definitely still find value among these respective rosters.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Bills
QB Tyrod Taylor
Elite rushing skills combine with interesting deep-passing upside to make Taylor a fun QB2 option and compelling daily fantasy asset for Week 1. The Ravens' decimated secondary in 2015 skewed the data, but this could simply be a poor pass defense, so the upside is here for Taylor.
RB LeSean McCoy
One of the rare feature workhorses left in the league, we can expect 20 touches and RB1 value for "Shady."
WR Sammy Watkins
One of the premier vertical threats in the league, Watkins could burn the Ravens deep just once and produce a nice fantasy outing. With a real rapport established with Taylor, the ceiling is as high as any receiver's this week.
TE Charles Clay
Clay only earned 77 targets and netted fewer than four receptions per game in 2015, suggesting he's a borderline TE2 until proven otherwise.
Bills Defense
Buffalo's front seven is missing several key starters and lacked a steady pass rush last season. You can do better than this middling group.
Ravens
QB Joe Flacco
No one really noticed Flacco was on pace for well over 4,500 yards and nearly 660 attempts last season in Marc Trestman's volume-driven passing scheme. With the Bills' exploitable defense on the way, particularly given their lack of pass rush, Flacco is an upside QB2 to consider.
RB Justin Forsett
Forsett is due the largest share of backfield touches based on our estimates and the tea leaves from the preseason. Even as he was recently released, it's likely Forsett lead the team in touches in Week 1. It's safest to let this play out on your bench or in free agency.
RB Terrance West
This physical back is looking to revive his career and could earn value as the team's short-yardage maven, but we're letting this play out from the bench given the mystery surrounding this backfield.
WR Steve Smith
The old and talented trash-talking receiver isn't on the injury list, so we can assume Smith will earn steady snaps and targets. Then again, we can't assume much for a 37-year-old fresh from a serious injury so like the backfield, let's let this play out before investing.
WR Kamar Aiken
The team's top target last season, it's unclear what Aiken's target share will be this season now that Smith and Mike Wallace are in the mix.
WR Mike Wallace
Wallace earned praise all offseason from Flacco, which could spell some upside if his busy preseason target share continues. Of the trio of wideouts for Baltimore, Wallace has the most immediate fantasy impact.
Ravens Defense
With Taylor, McCoy and Watkins all proving capable as offensive weapons, we're avoiding this group and the bias of reputation.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans
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The Minnesota Vikings have opened the season on the road eight of the last nine years—including today's game—so it's fitting to see them travel to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. With grind-out, run-heavy offenses meeting, this game claims the lowest implied point total of the week at just 40 points, per Odds Shark.
Let's succinctly break down each team's scheme and roster and how they might approach this cross-conference battle.
The Vikings lost starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a season-ending knee injury last week, but quickly traded for Sam Bradford from the Philadelphia Eagles as a solution to their signal-caller vacancy. Given Bradford's learning curve with just a week to adapt to offensive coordinator Norv Turner's playbook, veteran journeyman backup Shaun Hill will net the start, per ESPN's Ben Goessling.
It might not matter much who is behind center because the Vikings are built to run the rock, evidenced by the fact they netted 43 percent of their yards from scrimmage last season on the ground, the highest rate in the league. The Vikings dropped back to pass on just 54.9 percent of snaps last season, the third-lowest rate in 2015. Expect this run-first trend to continue into 2016; even as the Titans' defense ranked eighth in the league in per-carry allowance, ceding just 3.89 yards per carry to opponents last season.
On defense, the Vikings deploy and aggressive pass rush that pressured opposing quarterbacks on 30.7 percent of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league last season. This penchant for creating pressure could come into play against a Titans team that surrendered the most sacks in the league last season.
The Titans ranked second in the preseason in rushing yards per game thanks to their effective deployment of their "exotic smashmouth" scheme that aims to bully opponents with a run-heavy agenda. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's blitz-happy scheme—the Titans deployed the fifth-most blitzes last season—could be offset by the Vikings' run-heavy style. Either way, we're expecting this game to be decided in the trenches.
Let's break down the fantasy forecast for each position in this contest.
Quarterback
The Vikings' Hill isn't a fantasy factor to consider, as he's compiled just eight touchdowns to seven interceptions and a lowly QBR of just 38.5 over his past 12 appearances over the past two seasons.
The Titans' Marcus Mariota, however, offers some intrigue given he quietly ranked 10th in fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues last season through Week 14, before bowing out with an injury. Even with last year's strong showing, we're not starting Mariota in a game trending low scoring and run-heavy by intent of both team's respective schemes. For some context, Mariota is projected as the 25th fantasy quarterback by ESPN this week.
Running Back
Fantasy legend Adrian Peterson earns the second-highest fantasy point projection among running backs this week on ESPN. The 20 rushes they're estimating could actually prove conservative, as the team will seek to hide Hill via a volume-driven ground game. The Titans were solid against opposing backfields last season in ceding the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position in ESPN leagues, but Peterson still merits must-start status in all formats for the cost certainty of his workhorse role.
Change-of-pace back Jerick McKinnon is listed as questionable, per the Vikings' site, but practiced in limited fashion on Friday. The athletic former college quarterback is only viewed as insurance policy for Peterson at this stage and doesn't claim independent fantasy value.
The Titans' backfield is more intriguing in that veteran DeMarco Murray is expected to handle the majority of touches, yet 2015 Heisman winner Derrick Henry is sure to factor in as a complementary asset for the team's run-first agenda. Murray is projected for nearly 17 touches by ESPN, while Henry is estimated to net just over 10 touches. Murray offers the stronger fantasy floor to start things off, as we're still interested to see how this workload share plays out in the regular season.
It will prove most compelling to see how goal-line duties are dispersed, as Henry's hulking frame— he rates in the 99th percentile in height (6'3") and weight (247 lbs) among positional prospects since 1999, per MockDraftable—appears built for bruising short-yardage scenarios.
We're starting Murray as a mid-tier RB2 option given the team's commitment to the run, although expectations for a huge line are a bit tempered by Henry's presence and the fact the Vikings allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to backfields last season in ESPN leagues.
Receiver
There isn't much to like about the receiver position on either side of the ball in this matchup. The presence of old-school, run-first agendas combined with lackluster depth charts on both rosters limits the appeal.
For the Vikings we'd only consider using shifty second-year receiver Stefon Diggs, who could thrive working from the slot after lining up outside for much of his rookie season. More free releases and the ability to churn out yards underneath could help his target volume, although we're only considering him a WR3 in point-per-reception formats. The Titans did allow the ninth-most fantasy points to receivers last season, so that might offer some upside to Diggs' situation.
On the Titans we find a similar scenario unfolding, with rookie Tajae Sharpe serving as the security blanket receiver for Mariota. Like Diggs, Sharpe is best suited for PPR formats, as ESPN projects each of these receivers outside of the top 50 at the position in standard formats. As for the rest of the Titans' depth chart, shares of Rishard Matthews remain speculative, so sitting him on the bench or targeting him on the waiver wire remains most prudent.
Tight End
The Titans deliver a top option in Delanie Walker, who led the position with 94 receptions. We're starting Walker in all formats, while the Vikings' Kyle Rudolph is a pedestrian option dependent on touchdown production.
D/ST
We're fine with either defense in a fantasy lineup given the Titans could feast on Hill, but prefer the upside of the Vikings' playmakers and the team's penchant for blitzing the A-gaps.
Fantasy Football Week 1: San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
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The San Diego Chargers head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a showdown of familiar division foes. The Chiefs are sizable favorites, while the point total proves middling in the context of the slate, per Odds Shark.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Chargers
QB Philip Rivers
We can learn that he prefers one "L" in his first name and that we should attempt to find better options, as Rivers struggled mightily against the Chiefs' stingy defense last season.
RB Melvin Gordon
We dig Gordon's upside and potential for a major bounce-back from last season's dreadful efficiency and scoring woes, but this week against a stout front seven on the road isn't ideal. That said, we consider Gordon a flex option given his expected double-digit touch workload.
RB Danny Woodhead
It wouldn't sound nearly as cool if he went by Daniel, but Woodhead thankfully goes by a fun first name and provides immense value in point-per-reception formats. The game script as underdogs favor Woodhead, who would see more snaps if the team had to pass its way back into contention. Even if that plays out, expectations are tempered as Woodhead didn't reach 20 total yards in either of two games with the Chiefs last season.
WR Keenan Allen
A target hog ideal for PPR formats, Allen is a high-floor WR2 given a strong market share of the offense.
WR Travis Benjamin
A vertical threat set to assume the role vacated by Malcom Floyd, this isn't a great setup for Benjamin given the Chiefs' pass rush and secondary could limit his vertical upside.
TE Antonio Gates
Just eight scores shy of the touchdown record at the position, this red-zone maven is likely the safest relative option to his position on the Chargers this week.
Chargers Defense
Without established playmakers in the front seven past Melvin Ingram, we're avoiding San Diego, as they claim one of the weaker rush defenses in football.
Chiefs
QB Alex Smith
The Chiefs' game manager is a nice option in multi-quarterback formats given his rushing upside and stable production floor, but we're not using him in standard leagues given the utter lack of upside.
RB Spencer Ware
With Jamaal Charles unlikely to play, Ware assumes the valuable majority of backfield touches, namely given his elite goal-line skills. Given the upside of this role, Ware is a borderline RB1 for this unique week.
RB Charcandrick West
West will be a factor in the backfield mix, but his lack of goal-line work and scoring pedigree limits the appeal.
With Jason Verrett likely to shadow Maclin throughout, he's a borderline WR2 with some real risk to consider.
TE Travis Kelce
A steady target who offers a stable, if uninspired, fantasy floor, Kelce might actually be the safest pass-catcher on the team this week.
Chiefs Defense
Kansas City is a top option given the Chargers' lackluster offensive line and their deep and talented stable of playmakers across all positions.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
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The Oakland Raiders head to the Superdome in a game with serious shootout ingredients against the New Orleans Saints. This game is home to the slate's highest implied point total, per Odds Shark, which suggests a busy scoreboard could keep fantasy investors happy.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Raiders
QB Derek Carr
Much like Detroit's Matthew Stafford, Carr is a signal-caller who was drafted as a QB2 in most leagues but enters Week 1 with serious QB1 upside. The Saints were among the softest defensive matchups in the league last season, thus Carr is well positioned to produce.
RB Latavius Murray
Any threat of rookie DeAndre Washington cutting into Murray's value and workload isn't much of a concern in Week 1, as we expect this workhorse to consume the vast majority of snaps and touches for the Raiders. With a soft front seven to run through, Murray is in one of the better positions to excel at tailback this week.
WR Amari Cooper
A gifted technician with a real rapport with Carr, Cooper is a high-end WR2 given the sweet upside metrics the rich point total indicates.
This vet might actually have the better day of the two Oakland wideouts—thanks to having the better red-zone rapport and the fact top cover corner for the Saints Delvin Breaux could trace Cooper throughout.
TE Clive Walford
A rangy athlete afforded a chance to start and earn meaningful work for the Raiders, Walford is a sneaky TE1 option to consider for those missing out on Rob Gronkowski or Tyler Eifert to start the season.
Raiders Defense
We're confidently avoiding this group given the Saints are among the most dangerous offenses to face on the road.
Saints
QB Drew Brees
The king of the 5K yardage club, Brees is a must-start signal-caller whenever he's in the Superdome.
RB Mark Ingram
One of the elite fantasy backs from last season, Ingram serves a valuable three-down role for the Saints. We also like sneaky PPR shares of C.J. Spiller, but Ingram is locked in as the team's premier early down and goal-line asset at the position.
WR Brandin Cooks
A gifted playmaker with a proven vertical rapport with Brees, Cooks is a borderline WR1 asset.
WR Michael Thomas
This big slot receiver could thrive as a rookie, but we'd prefer to see his snaps and targets play out before trusting him in fantasy lineups.
WR Willie Snead
A trusted target of Brees, Snead nearly reached 1,000 yards last season and could be a top possession valve for the Saints, thus offering flex value for Week 1.
TE Coby Fleener
Considering journeyman Ben Watson led the position in red-zone targets and was a top-10 fantasy option last season, shares of Fleener as a starting option this week and beyond makes perfect sense if for the valuable role.
Saints Defense
With such a lofty implied point total and the Saints' sieve defense, we can do better than this sorry fantasy group.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
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In a division rivalry hosted in the Georgia Dome, the Tampa Bay Bucs enter Atlanta as slight underdogs in a matchup with the Falcons.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Bucs
QB Jameis Winston
Winston threw for one touchdown in each of two meetings, both wins, with the Falcons last season. We'll need more than that to satisfy starting fantasy value, but we find it entirely possible given Winston is poised for a breakout given his crew of big downfield targets and support of one of the league's better rushing attacks. Winston is still merely a high-end QB2, but we don't blame you if you consider him a starter in a streaming situation.
RB Doug Martin
Martin was second in the league in rushing and while his fantasy profile can prove a bit touchdown-dependent given a lack of receiving upside, it helps to consider he averaged 25 touches per game against Atlanta last season.
RB Charles Sims
Sims is another talented change-of-pace back to consider in point-per-reception leagues as a low-end flex option. Per the matchup, Sims averaged just over 60 yards from scrimmage against the Falcons last season.
WR Mike Evans
A candidate for a positive correction in touchdowns, Evans and Winston could do real damage in the deep-passing phase. The Falcons were stingy to receivers last season, but the big-play upside keeps Evans in the borderline WR1 tier.
WR Vincent Jackson
A nice sleeper despite his advanced age, Jackson is another rangy vertical threat for Winston to target. If Evans consumes double teams, Jackson could produce a nice outing. That said, we're not starting him outside of deeper leagues given his lack of production last season.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
We should allow "ASJ" to earn his way into fantasy lineups, as his offseason spent in the doghouse of the coaching staff doesn't offer much immediate promise.
Bucs Defense
Tampa's front seven is full of playmakers like Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, but a middling secondary and inconsistent pass rush means this group is avoidable on the road.
Falcons
QB Matt Ryan
The definition of a QB2 over the past several seasons, a glaring lack of touchdown production keeps Ryan from earning starting status in fantasy formats.
RB Devonta Freeman
Last season's top fantasy producer at the position, Freeman is expected to see a reduction in workload, but he continued to see valuable goal-line work in the preseason, thus he remains a RB1 asset.
RB Tevin Coleman
A stronger share of early down work adds value to Coleman's profile, but it's most prudent to leave him on the fantasy pine and see what he can do with his share of work this week.
WR Julio Jones
With the second-most receiving yards in a single season last year, it's safe to say this guy is special. Start and enjoy.
WR Mohamed Sanu
A second-fiddle talent due an uninspired share of the Atlanta passing game, Sanu is merely bench fodder in fantasy leagues.
Falcons Defense
The Atlanta defense added several key rookies to the mix this offseason, but we're not deploying this group that lacks a pass rush against an emerging Tampa offense.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
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In a game with a tight point spread and low point total, per Odds Shark, fantasy fun could be limited as the Cincinnati Bengals head to New York to take on the Jets.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options
Bengals
QB Andy Dalton
The Jets present a real challenge for Dalton to return value as a starting fantasy option given a talented pass rush and stocked defensive line. With limited weapons in the passing game past A.J. Green, we're fading Dalton outside of deeper leagues and multi-quarterback formats.
RB Jeremy Hill
The Jets allowed just two rushing touchdowns to backs and the fewest rushing yards to the position last season, thus Hill is a touchdown-dependent flex option.
RB Giovani Bernard
"Gio" is a fine point-per-reception flex given the game script against a stout rush defense could put the ball in his hands via the short-passing phase, with Hill likely to struggle to find efficiency. It's not a great setup for Bernard, mind you, but an easier path to total yardage is present.
WR A.J. Green
Darrelle Revis wasn't nearly as elite as expected in the second half last season, but this was likely due to a wrist injury more so than true regression as a player. Green still faces a unique challenge, but we're starting him in all formats given his deep-ball skills and expectedly high market share of the offense.
WR Tyler Boyd
A volume-driven star at Pitt, Boyd is the rare rookie who merits attention as a flex option from the first game. With Green drawing double teams and Revis, Boyd could have sneaky PPR value. We're fading and avoiding Brandon LaFell, so Boyd is the next in line on this roster.
Bengals Defense
A top-10 fantasy group last season, we consider the Bengals a viable starting option given the presence a steady pass rush led by Carlos Dunlap and upside in the turnover department given the Jets' mistake-prone quarterback.
Jets
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
The bearded one returned to the Jets to again lead what was a surprisingly potent passing attack from 2015. With two capable outside receivers, Fitzpatrick is a viable QB2, but starting status in traditional formats escapes him given a penchant for interceptions and the Bengals' sound defense.
RB Matt Forte
With reps lining up in the slot and one of the best receiving resumes in league history out of the backfield, Forte remains a gem in PPR formats. We're not as enthused in standard leagues, but given an estimated workload around 15 touches, we're still affording Forte RB2 status.
RB Bilal Powell
Also a gifted receiver, Powell is due a sizable share of the backfield touches, while real value could emerge if he consolidates goal-line duties, as Forte has struggled with efficiency in this department over the years. Without any confirmation as to their workload share, Powell is a flex in PPR formats and avoidable in standard leagues for now.
A monster 2015 campaign reminded the market just how special Marshall can be on a weekly basis, as he was arguably the most consistent producer at the position last fall. Even as the matchup isn't ideal, we trust his sizable target share in all formats.
WR Eric Decker
Nearly matching Marshall's consistency, Decker produced strong fantasy results nearly every weekend for his investors in 2015. Similarly again to Marshall, we're trusting Decker as a locked-in starter despite the lower point climate and formidable opponent.
Jets Defense
Given a stout rush defense and playmakers on both levels, the Jets are a borderline top-12 option for Week 1.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Green Bay Packers head to North Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a rare meeting. The Packers are healthy favorites in a game with a point total just shy of 50 points, per Odds Shark, which suggests there is plenty of fantasy opportunity to consider in this matchup.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options
Packers
Apparently this guy is good at football. The Jaguars invested heavily on defense this offseason, but we're not shying away from this elite option now that he has his full complement of skill players in the passing game.
RB Eddie Lacy
Even as backup tailback James Starks creeps into Lacy's workload at times, the bruising Alabama back is still the team's top talent at the position and appears positioned to bounce back from last season forgettable effort. The Jags allowed just 3.7 yards per carry last season, but we're banking on goal-line upside to drive borderline RB1 production for Lacy.
WR Jordy Nelson
There is some risk here as Nelson didn't play in the preseason, but all accounts suggest we'll see a full range of routes and snaps for the superstar wideout. This is the rare must-start asset who comes with inherent, but palatable, risk.
WR Randall Cobb
Fantasy Labs found that Cobb actually averages five more fantasy points with Nelson on the field than without, a positive sign for a bounce-back season and a strong showing in Week 1.
TE Jared Cook
A rare athlete with a developing rapport with Rodgers, Cook is a nice option if you need help with Rob Gronkowski or Tyler Eifert ailing.
Packers Defense
ESPN projects this group for the third-most fantasy points thanks to the Jaguars' propensity for turnovers and the potential for Green Bay's capable secondary to exploit this angle.
Jaguars
QB Blake Bortles
Bortles produced 29 of his 35 touchdowns last season with the Jags trailing, which suggests he requires such game script and soft defensive framework to thrive. Even after a breakout 2015, we're only into Bortles as a starter in deeper formats, as the Packers' secondary presents some risk.
RB Chris Ivory
A calf injury cropped up this week for Ivory, but it's unlikely to keep him from playing. We can expect a share of touches with T.J. Yeldon, which could prove defeating for both players. We'd prefer to sit Ivory and let the scenario play out from the bench, but understand using him as a low-end flex where necessary.
RB T.J. Yeldon
A talented back limited by the presence of Ivory, Yeldon isn't a viable fantasy starter given what is a cloudy backfield breakdown until we see it play out on the field.
WR Allen Robinson
Tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns in just his second season, Robinson is an elite must-start asset in all formats.
WR Allen Hurns
After a breakout 2015 we can expect regression across the board for Hurns. This can be overblown, however, as this means a reduction, not complete deflation of his value. Hurns is a fine flex option given the potential for negative game script to fuel the passing game.
TE Julius Thomas
A gifted red-zone weapon, Thomas is a top-10 option at the position given his touchdown potential and the sheer shallow nature of the position.
Jaguars Defense
We're avoiding this group given a position as home underdogs against a solid, and potentially, elite offense.
Fantasy Football Week 1: Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks
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How does traveling nearly 3,000 miles to face one of the toughest defenses and also one of the best quarterbacks in the world sound? That's the recipe for the Miami Dolphins this week, as they enter Week 1 as the biggest underdog of the slate facing the Seattle Seahawks, per Odds Shark.
The Seahawks have an interesting backfield situation to discuss, while the Dolphins need to play their best ball to leave Week 1 with an upset.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options
Dolphins
QB Ryan Tannehill
It would be nice to see Tannehill start on fantasy teams this week. Your opponent's team, that is, as he's simply not a worthy option to consider given this tough matchup against a top defense on the road.
RB Arian Foster
With Jay Ajayi not even traveling with the team, Foster claims a majority share of the work and could make his numbers via the passing phase, as he remains a gifted receiver even as rushing efficiency escaped him last season. We're not expecting a big day given the vet is returning from a serious injury and is facing a stout front seven, but the role could help foster nice total yardage in the end.
WR Jarvis Landry
A heavy target share is all but assured for Landry, who could actually still produce nice numbers given he'll likely work most snaps from the slot, where he'll net Jeremy Lane and not Richard Sherman as a direct opponent. The upside is tempered in this tough spot against a top defense, but the role helps support a strong fantasy floor.
WR Kenny Stills
We're not enthused enough with Stills' emergence as the team's likely second option at receiver to use him in starting fantasy lineups, but we would speculatively add him in most deeper fantasy leagues just in case.
WR DeVante Parker
With lingering hamstring issues and playing behind Stills in two-receiver sets in the preseason, let's leave Parker on the fantasy pine until we see what his role and health look like.
TE Jordan Cameron
Cameron wasn't even a top-30 per-game fantasy option last season. The Seahawks have proven exploitable at tight end in the past, but we're not sold on Cameron capitalizing given his lack of rapport with Tannehill (lowest catch rate among tight ends with 30 targets in 2015).
Dolphins Defense
As massive underdogs against an elite and balanced offense, the Miami defense is not a viable fantasy asset for Week 1.
Seahawks
In leagues that give bonuses for having pop star spouses, Wilson is a must start. In leagues that reward passing yards, rushing yards and touchdowns, Wilson is a must start. This peerless pocket maven is also among the league's best rushing threats from the position, thus he's a must-start asset against a fallible Fins' defense.
RB Thomas Rawls
Rawls continues to work his way back into form from offseason ankle surgery and isn't listed atop the depth chart at the moment, instead ceding that honor to Christine Michael. Given the mystery surrounding his role and the likelihood for Michael to see the majority share of work, Rawls is merely a risk-laden flex option who can eventually become a fantasy star if he regains the feature gig.
RB Christine Michael
An athletic freak with some real momentum after a strong preseason showing, Michael is listed atop the depth chart and could earn the most meaningful batch of touches from the backfield. This could prove valuable given the team's heavy favorite designation, meaning he could net close-out carries late into the game to pad his numbers. There is still real risk here given the mystery surrounding this scenario, thus Michael is a RB2 or flex option to consider.
WR Doug Baldwin
Not only did Baldwin lead the league in receiving touchdowns last season, he was on the field for almost every snap of Wilson's in the preseason while the team's other receivers often rotated snaps. The assumed top target of an efficient and elite quarterback, Baldwin is a solid WR2 asset for Week 1.
WR Tyler Lockett
Lockett was on the field with Wilson for just 52 percent of the quarterback's snaps in the preseason. This adds real risk to starting Lockett in fantasy given the potential for a small market share of the offense. The big-play upside is undeniable, so there is reason to start him, but just be aware of the inherent low-floor risks.
TE Jimmy Graham
Expectations are tempered for Graham in Week 1 given a lengthy recovery from a serious knee ailment, but it's entirely encouraging that he participated fully in practice all week. Sort of like Lockett, but with far different roles, Graham is a big-play-or-bust type of asset.
Seahawks Defense
Even though most investors likely spent too much on this group in regards to draft capital, we can't blame them given the track record. The Seahawks averaged the best weekly fantasy finish in 2015 and host a Miami offense still finding its feet in a new scheme. This group is a must-start option.
Fantasy Football Week 1: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
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The New York Football Giants unloaded tons of free-agent cash to improve a defense that allowed nearly 28 points per game last season, while the Dallas Cowboys invested draft capital in their backfield with an eye on producing an elite ground game.
With Dallas missing incumbent starting quarterback Tony Romo to yet another serious back injury, we'll see a rookie start for the Cowboys in a game with significant implications for the NFC East race and in fantasy football.
Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Giants
QB Eli Manning
On one the pass-heaviest offenses in the league, Manning is among the better options at the position this week given the Cowboys' utter lack of pass-rush talent and a capable, if exploitable secondary in place.
RB Rashad Jennings
Now that's consolidated early down and goal-line duties with Andre Williams not making the roster, Jennings is a solid RB2 option against a Dallas defense with thin depth charts at nearly every position on the front seven.
RB Shane Vereen
Much like the Detroit Lions' Theo Riddick, Vereen only bears value as a flex option in point-per-reception leagues. It helps to consider the team features Vereen in no-huddle sets often, which could earn him extended exposure if the speed things up against Dallas.
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
One of the truly elite options in fantasy football, Beckham is a must-start asset in all formats thanks to his heavy target share and big-play ability.
WR Sterling Shepard
The rare rookie receiver worthy of instant consideration in fantasy formats, Shepard is a skilled technician with increased value in PPR leagues. Even in standard formats, we consider Shepard a borderline flex commodity given the passing volume the Giants often deploy. Without a fantasy-relevant tight end on the roster, Shepard could serve as a valuable chain-mover for Manning when Beckham draws extra coverage.
Giants Defense
There is real upside for this group given they face a rookie quarterback, which can lead to turnover opportunities. There is also real risk given how porous New York was last season, so we're only using this group as a streaming option in deeper leagues.
Cowboys
QB Dak Prescott
Preseason darling Prescott faces a much tougher challenge when the real season starts on Sunday. The positives to consider are clear; the team has a top offensive line and will commit to the ground game early and often, lessening the burden on Prescott to fuel the offense.
The negatives are also obvious, as trusting any rookie signal-caller, even a talented rushing option, has often proven imprudent over the larger sample size. This all said, Prescott is a high-upside QB2 ideal for multi-quarterback leagues, but one we're a bit wary of starting in traditional formats.
RB Ezekiel Elliott
The Giants allowed the eighth-most yards from scrimmage and seventh-most touchdowns to backs last season. Elliott looked great in a small sample of preseason exposure and makes for a surefire top option at the position given Dallas' elite offensive line and an expectedly rich workload for the Ohio State product.
WR Dez Bryant
Passing volume could be an issue for Bryant given the team will want to limit Prescott's exposure dropping back, but this proven playmaker also led the league in touchdown receptions from 2012 to 2014, so the upside is obvious. Bryant remains in the WR1 discussion, particularly against an exploitable New York secondary.
WR Terrance Williams
We don't advise using Williams in fantasy lineups this week given he's a big-play dependent option with a questionable market share of the passing offense.
TE Jason Witten
This sure-handed vet is a safe option over the middle for Prescott, but we'd prefer his stock if Romo were behind center given increased volume and rapport. Witten is on the fringe of being a starting fantasy option, so we'd consider stronger streaming options like the Green Bay Packers' Jared Cook or New England Patriots' Martellus Bennett.
Cowboys Defense
Without any proven pass-rush talent and the Giants' formidable offense on the schedule, you can do better than this low-end fantasy option
Fantasy Football Week 1: Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
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In one of the most inviting fantasy climates of the week, if not the best setup in all of imaginary football, the Detroit Lions head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts in a cross-conference contest. The Colts are missing several starters on defense to injury, while both teams ranked in the bottom third of the league in points allowed last season, per ESPN.
With some fun fantasy upside present—Odds Shark has this game listed with the second-highest implied point total of the slate—we find several key players to consider. Let's discuss each team's top fantasy options.
Lions
QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford enjoyed a brilliant second half last season with 19 touchdowns to just two interceptions over the final eight games. Even though superstar wideout Calvin Johnson retired this past offseason, we still dig the team's talented receiving corps and especially against a defense that ranked 22d in sacks and 24th in pass defense, according to ESPN. Given the sweet setup, Stafford is a legit QB1 option.
RB Ameer Abdullah
Projected for the 23rd-most fantasy points among backs by ESPN, Abdullah's best asset in this game is the matchup with the porous Colts' front that allowed 1,625 yards on the ground to backs last year, 10th most in the NFL. This makes the second-year speedster a fine RB2 option with some upside to consider.
RB Theo Riddick
Riddick tied for the positional lead last season with 80 receptions. While he might not match that lofty total this year, he's still the team's top receiving option out of the backfield, which helps considering how pass-heavy the offense has proven over time. The Lions led the NFL in dropback percentage last season, thus Riddick is a fine flex option in PPR leagues, but isn't a worthy starter in standard leagues given a clear lack of rushing upside and usage.
WR Golden Tate
Tate practiced in full on Thursday and Friday, putting to rest any injury concerns given he's listed as questionable with an ankle ailment. Tate was fourth in the NFL in routes run last year, and makes for a high-floor WR2 in PPR formats.
WR Marvin Jones
A breakout candidate with a 10-touchdown season already under his belt, Jones and Tate could feast on a Colts' secondary missing top corner Vontae Davis as well as starting safety Clayton Geathers. Jones is also a fine WR2 asset for Week 1.
TE Eric Ebron
Like Tate, Ebron was a full participant in practice to end the week, thus we're trusting he'll start despite his questionable injury designation. Unlike Tate, Ebron's target share isn't as defined, thus he bears some usage risks. The Colts allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends last season in ESPN leagues, setting up Ebron as a streaming option still found outside of the top 12 at the position.
Lions Defense
Even as the Colts' offensive line seemed leaky in the preseason, we're avoiding facing their high-octane passing offense given the game's lofty point total.
Colts
QB Andrew Luck
Removed from the injury report after some concerns over his shoulder earlier this week, Luck is ready to embark on a bounce-back campaign at the helm of a pass-happy offense. Flush with talented targets, Luck is firmly in the QB1 mix at home in a game with an impressive projected point total.
RB Frank Gore
This bowling ball of a back is still churning out yards well into his 30s. Found at a discount in drafts this summer, Gore is the main back on a thin depth chart, so workload is one of his greatest selling points at this stage. The Lions allowed 14 rushing scores to backs last year, third most in the league, helping support Gore's stock as a low-end RB2.
WR T.Y. Hilton
A proven burner with big-play potential and a healthy target share of Luck's passing offense, Hilton is a borderline WR1 projected for the 12th-most fantasy points at the position by ESPN.
WR Donte Moncrief
A hyped breakout candidate throughout the offseason, Moncrief is also due a sizable target share and enjoyed five touchdowns in seven games working with Luck last season. Moncrief is a high-end WR2 asset in this shootout environment.
WR Phillip Dorsett
Shares of Dorsett in daily fantasy as an upside tournament option prove intriguing given the team likes to run three-receiver sets and he claims rare speed at the position, but we're not trusting him in traditional fantasy formats given his smaller target share and lack of track record.
TE Dwayne Allen
Allen is a starting candidate at the position given the Lions allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2015 and he is due a sizable target share, especially in the red zone.
Colts Defense
We're repeating the refrain about the Lions' defense; this shootout setup is avoidable for the defensive groups, especially as the Colts are missing several starters to injury.
Fantasy Football Week 1: New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals
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In what had the makings of a marquee matchup back when the schedule was released in the spring now features the New England Patriots sans their superstar quarterback Tom Brady to suspension, without touchdown-machine Rob Gronkowski and two starting offensive linemen to injury, per ESPN's Mike Reiss.
The point total for this game opened up at 51 points, a robust number that indicates a potential shootout, but the missing ingredients from the Patriots' offense has seen the total dwindle to the mid-40s with the Cards emerging as touchdown favorites, per Odds Shark.
This doesn't mean we aren't interested in the game from a fantasy perspective, just that shares of the Patriots' offense aren't as appealing and this game lost some primetime appeal in the process. Let's break down the matchup from a fantasy perspective for each team.
Patriots
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
What can we expect from New England's signal-caller in this one? No really, please let us know. With just 188 career passing yards to his name and the fact the Cardinals led the league in blitz percentage last season—sending added pressure on 45 percent of opposing dropbacks—we wouldn't trust the green signal-caller outside of deeper multi-quarterback fantasy leagues.
RB LeGarrette Blount
This bruising early down back can prove truly boom-or-bust as a fantasy producer given a dependence on touchdowns in order to deliver value. Given the Cardinals allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards and fifth-fewest fantasy points to backs last season, Blount is merely a risky flex play this week.
RB James White
White is the inverse of Blount in that his role is likely isolated to passing downs and he doesn't claim a strong touchdown pedigree. That said, there is some sneaky flex value in point-per-reception leagues in deeper formats, as Arizona allowed 7.8 yards per attempt to backs last season, third most in the league.
WR Julian Edelman
It is likely Garoppolo will stick to a short-distance, high-percentage passing approach in this game, especially given the Cardinals' penchant for blitzing. This helps Edelman's stock in PPR formats, as he's the favorite to lead the team in targets with Gronkowski absent.
Now for some bad news, the Cardinals claim arguably the most talented secondary in the NFL, a group that allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers last season. ESPN projects Edelman 35th in fantasy points at the position, and we can't argue with the tempered take given current conditions.
WR Chris Hogan
Some big-play ability could help Hogan ascend to fantasy relevance this season, but he's still owned in just over 40 percent of ESPN leagues and could also struggle against this elite secondary. For now we're merely stashing Hogan and not using him in lineups for Week 1.
TE Martellus Bennett
With "Gronkey Kong" ruled out, Bennett is a borderline TE1 option, which is to say he can be considered a starting asset in most formats given an expected uptick in targets and red-zone attention. ESPN projects Bennett at 10th in fantasy production this week, while the Cards were middling in covering tight ends last season, ranking 20th in fantasy allowance to the position.
New England Defense
The Cardinals were one of the best offenses in the league last season and return their full assortment of skill weapons. The Pats are missing two of last season's top pass-rushers, thus we're fading this group for better matchups at the position.
Cardinals
QB Carson Palmer
On a Kurt Warner-like late-career surge in the desert, Palmer was one of the steadier options at the position last season. The Patriots' defensive staff often adapts well to opponents, but we're still starting Palmer unless a better matchup or option exits, such as those who also drafted Matthew Stafford of Detroit or some comparable asset.
RB David Johnson
A consensus first-round fantasy commodity, Johnson was the top producer in fantasy points among backs from Week 12 on last year. Adept as a runner and in the passing phase, we're deploying Johnson as a must-start option in all leagues. For those in PPR formats, it helps to consider New England allowed 92 catches to backs last year, ninth most in the league.
Even late into his career, "Fitz" remains a bankable fantasy commodity, especially after last year's revival campaign that saw him lead the team in receptions and yardage. You'll find all three of the Cardinals' prominent receivers in bunched in ESPN's projections for the position, with Fitzgerald as the safest option given his perch as Palmer's most-targeted receiver last season.
WR Michael Floyd
A big and rangy target, Floyd was among the league leaders in air yards per target last season. This means he's a vertical threat with big-play potential. This also means he often nets lower-percentage opportunities than say Fitzgerald, adding variance to his outcome spectrum. We like Floyd as a WR3 for this matchup with a sound, but not elite, New England secondary.
WR John Brown
Not the sheriff from that Bob Marley song, but instead a speedster for the Cardinals, Brown is another vertical maven with the ability to stretch the field. Brown proved more consistent than Floyd last year, although we expect similar usage and thus also consider him a third option at the position for your fantasy team. This is the rare case where three receivers on a single offense merit trust in fantasy usage.
Arizona Defense
The Cards are now a choice option given the Patriots' depleted offensive roster. With the aforementioned heavy blitz rate and top secondary, we dig this group as a top-five fantasy option for Week 1.
Data for this article such as targets, dropback rates and fantasy points allowed are sourced from an ESPN database.
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