Fantasy Football 2016: Matt Camp's Post-Preseason Week 1 Big Board
Now that we've seen each team play a preseason game, my fantasy analysis will make a shift to the present. There won't be as much emphasis on stats and performances from last season, since many factors have and will continue to change.
If you're still catching up on your draft preparation, be sure to check out my Big Board articles from the last two weeks, as well as my Ultimate Blueprint for draft strategies and a plan of action for each position.
I don't put too much stock in the statistics that come out of the preseason games, but I do like to study the performances to put everything into context. You can read my full analysis of every game from this week's Fantasy Notebook, which should give you an idea of why some players are on the rise.
In addition, I've tried to decipher the difference between typical preseason hype that ends up meaning little and legitimate evidence of a player primed for a big performance in the regular season.
Injuries are also a big factor in players' shifting around my rankings, although it's important to not overthink or underrate the significance of an injury. In the case of Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, the hamstring injury he suffered in the early days of August already looks like an issue of the past.
On the other hand, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver John Brown suffered a concussion more than two weeks ago and remains in the concussion protocol, according to head coach Bruce Arians, per Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. You can't assume anything when it comes to concussions, so expectations may have to change for Brown.
As usual, I've provided a PPR (points per reception) rankings update for every position with explanations about the biggest moves. Plus, I've spotlighted key average draft positions (ADP) to consider when drafting. If you're playing in a non-PPR format, you can find those rankings here.
Top 100: Foundation Matters
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I've received a lot of draft questions about who to take and when to take them. Sometimes I get tweets with a grouping of five players from multiple positions and am asked to rank them in an effort to help decide the best option. While I understand the need for these questions, the answers can't always be simplified in 140 characters.
My Top 100 rankings should help give you general answers if you're deciding between players from multiple positions, although I wouldn't make picks based solely on those rankings.
You'll see and hear me talk about context a lot because it's important to know about scoring rules, league size and tendencies that may be unique to your league and those who play in it.
I bring context to your attention because a pick in the ninth round should not be as simple as picking the highest-ranked player left in my rankings. You need to look at the context of your team and what position you need to focus on in addition to what other teams need.
For example, if you have the third-to-last pick at the end of the ninth round and feel like you need to get your quarterback, take a look at the teams in front of you before you make that selection. Do they already have quarterbacks? If so, you might be better off forgoing a quarterback with your ninth-round pick to grab a different position because you're confident in getting the same QB in the next round.
Use this Top 100 list as a guide, not a strict, round-by-round manual to drafting your team.
2016 Top 100 PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Antonio Brown PIT (8) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Julio Jones ATL (11) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | DeAndre Hopkins HOU (9) | WR | +2 | +1 |
| 5 | David Johnson ARI (9) | RB | -1 | +1 |
| 6 | A.J. Green CIN (9) | WR | +1 | +1 |
| 7 | Todd Gurley LA (8) | RB | -2 | -3 |
| 8 | Lamar Miller HOU (9) | RB | +1 | +4 |
| 9 | Ezekiel Elliott DAL (7) | RB | +3 | 0 |
| 10 | Adrian Peterson MIN (6) | RB | +1 | -2 |
| 11 | Brandin Cooks NO (5) | WR | +12 | +12 |
| 12 | Brandon Marshall NYJ (11) | WR | +3 | +7 |
| 13 | Allen Robinson JAC (5) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Rob Gronkowski NE (9) | TE | -6 | -3 |
| 15 | Dez Bryant DAL (7) | WR | -5 | -5 |
| 16 | Eddie Lacy GB (4) | RB | +13 | +10 |
| 17 | T.Y. Hilton IND (10) | WR | +11 | +10 |
| 18 | Keenan Allen SD (11) | WR | -4 | -2 |
| 19 | Mark Ingram NO (5) | RB | +3 | +5 |
| 20 | Amari Cooper OAK (10) | WR | +4 | +2 |
| 21 | Devonta Freeman ATL (11) | RB | -5 | -4 |
| 22 | Le'Veon Bell PIT (8) | RB | -1 | -8 |
| 23 | Golden Tate DET (10) | WR | +12 | +11 |
| 24 | C.J. Anderson DEN (11) | RB | +8 | +14 |
| 25 | Carlos Hyde SF (8) | RB | +16 | +18 |
| 26 | Jordy Nelson GB (4) | WR | -7 | -11 |
| 27 | Mike Evans TB (6) | WR | -9 | -7 |
| 28 | Doug Martin TB (6) | RB | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | LeSean McCoy BUF (10) | RB | -4 | 0 |
| 30 | Randall Cobb GB (4) | WR | +6 | +3 |
| 31 | Thomas Rawls SEA (5) | RB | +15 | +9 |
| 32 | Demaryius Thomas DEN (11) | WR | -6 | -7 |
| 33 | Danny Woodhead SD (11) | RB | +18 | +19 |
| 34 | Sammy Watkins BUF (10) | WR | -3 | -3 |
| 35 | Jeremy Maclin KC (5) | WR | +2 | +4 |
| 36 | Donte Moncrief IND (10) | WR | +12 | +13 |
| 37 | Dion Lewis NE (9) | RB | +2 | +4 |
| 38 | Jamaal Charles KC (5) | RB | -21 | -20 |
| 39 | Julian Edelman NE (9) | WR | -6 | -7 |
| 40 | Aaron Rodgers GB (4) | QB | 0 | +5 |
| 41 | Andrew Luck IND (10) | QB | +13 | +14 |
| 42 | Cam Newton CAR (7) | QB | -8 | 0 |
| 43 | Matt Forte NYJ (11) | RB | 0 | -6 |
| 44 | Jordan Reed WAS (9) | TE | -6 | -9 |
| 45 | Alshon Jeffery CHI (9) | WR | -25 | -24 |
| 46 | Travis Kelce KC (5) | TE | +12 | +14 |
| 47 | Jarvis Landry MIA (8) | WR | -17 | -17 |
| 48 | Eric Decker NYJ (11) | WR | -6 | 0 |
| 49 | Russell Wilson SEA (5) | QB | 0 | +9 |
| 50 | Latavius Murray OAK (10) | RB | -6 | -3 |
| 51 | John Brown ARI (9) | WR | +13 | +10 |
| 52 | Jeremy Hill CIN (9) | RB | +15 | +19 |
| 53 | Matt Jones WAS (9) | RB | +16 | +3 |
| 54 | Greg Olsen CAR (7) | TE | -9 | -10 |
| 55 | Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9) | WR | -3 | -5 |
| 56 | DeVante Parker MIA (8) | WR | +14 | +12 |
| 57 | Doug Baldwin SEA (5) | WR | -7 | -11 |
| 58 | Giovani Bernard CIN (9) | RB | -1 | +4 |
| 59 | Zach Ertz PHI (4) | TE | +27 | +31 |
| 60 | Melvin Gordon SD (11) | RB | +18 | +18 |
| 61 | Drew Brees NO (5) | QB | -1 | +9 |
| 62 | Kelvin Benjamin CAR (7) | WR | -15 | -26 |
| 63 | Tyler Lockett SEA (5) | WR | +12 | +12 |
| 64 | Michael Floyd ARI (9) | WR | -5 | -11 |
| 65 | Duke Johnson CLE (13) | RB | -12 | -8 |
| 66 | Frank Gore IND (10) | RB | -1 | +11 |
| 67 | Ryan Mathews PHI (4) | RB | -4 | -2 |
| 68 | Emmanuel Sanders DEN (11) | WR | -6 | -9 |
| 69 | DeMarco Murray TEN (13) | RB | -13 | -18 |
| 70 | Ben Roethlisberger PIT (8) | QB | +1 | +4 |
| 71 | Ameer Abdullah DET (10) | RB | +9 | +10 |
| 72 | Kevin White CHI (9) | WR | +16 | +8 |
| 73 | Delanie Walker TEN (13) | TE | -12 | -7 |
| 74 | Theo Riddick DET (10) | RB | +23 | +25 |
| 75 | Charles Sims TB (6) | RB | +9 | +12 |
| 76 | Tyler Eifert CIN (9) | TE | +15 | -3 |
| 77 | Marvin Jones DET (10) | WR | -1 | +6 |
| 78 | Carson Palmer ARI (9) | QB | -5 | +4 |
| 79 | Josh Gordon CLE (13) | WR | +21 | +18 |
| 80 | Allen Hurns JAC (5) | WR | -6 | -16 |
| 81 | Stefon Diggs MIN (6) | WR | +21 | +29 |
| 82 | Arian Foster MIA (8) | RB | -3 | -13 |
| 83 | Rashad Jennings NYG (8) | RB | 0 | +13 |
| 84 | Eli Manning NYG (8) | QB | -2 | +16 |
| 85 | Jeremy Langford CHI (9) | RB | -8 | -22 |
| 86 | Tevin Coleman ATL (11) | RB | +30 | +18 |
| 87 | Coby Fleener NO (5) | TE | -19 | -20 |
| 88 | Gary Barnidge CLE (13) | TE | -3 | 0 |
| 89 | Jordan Matthews PHI (4) | WR | -34 | -35 |
| 90 | Michael Crabtree OAK (10) | WR | -18 | -14 |
| 91 | DeSean Jackson WAS (9) | WR | -10 | -5 |
| 92 | Sterling Shepard NYG (8) | WR | +7 | +6 |
| 93 | Chris Ivory JAC (5) | RB | +1 | +1 |
| 94 | T.J. Yeldon JAC (5) | RB | -7 | +1 |
| 95 | Shane Vereen NYG (8) | RB | +40 | +35 |
| 96 | Matthew Stafford DET (10) | QB | +28 | +43 |
| 97 | Derek Carr OAK (10) | QB | +15 | +12 |
| 98 | Blake Bortles JAC (5) | QB | -5 | -7 |
| 99 | Tom Brady NE (9) | QB | -3 | -20 |
| 100 | Julius Thomas JAC (5) | TE | -11 | -8 |
Quarterbacks: Wait and You'll Be Great
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Notable Changes in Rankings
13. Joe Flacco, BAL (up one spot)
14. Jameis Winston, TB (up three spots)
15. Philip Rivers, SD (up one spot)
16. Andy Dalton, CIN (down three spots)
The movement with these players is about the negative and not anything positive for Flacco, Winston and Rivers, other than a general feeling that their situations are more fantasy-friendly than Dalton's.
While Dalton is completely over the thumb injury that cut his season short last year, he has too many injuries in what was already a significantly different receiving corps. Tight end Tyler Eifert's return from an ankle injury may not come until "early in the regular season," according to Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com.
Eifert's backup, Tyler Kroft, suffered a sprained knee August 4 and faces a four- to six-week timetable for recovery, according to Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Brandon LaFell, one of the wide receivers brought in to replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, has a torn ligament in his hand that could require surgery, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network, but head coach Marvin Lewis told Hobson he doesn't expect LaFell to miss Week 1.
If those situations clear up and lean toward the positive by the end of the preseason, Dalton could move back up, but for now his ranking takes a hit.
Targets Based on Value
Carson Palmer, ARI
My Ranking: QB7
ADP: 85.3, QB8
Eli Manning, NYG
My Ranking: QB8
ADP: 96.8, QB10
Matthew Stafford, DET
My Ranking: QB9
ADP: 142.5, QB17
Overvalues Based on ADP vs. Ranking
Tony Romo, DAL
My Ranking: QB24
ADP: 125.8, QB13
Kirk Cousins, WAS
My Ranking: QB22
ADP: 126.5, QB14
Potential Sleepers
Joe Flacco, BAL
My Ranking: QB13
ADP: 194.3, QB23
2016 Quarterback Draft Rankings
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers GB (4) | +1 | +1 |
| 2 | Andrew Luck IND (10) | +2 | +2 |
| 3 | Cam Newton CAR (7) | -2 | -2 |
| 4 | Russell Wilson SEA (5) | -1 | -1 |
| 5 | Drew Brees NO (5) | 0 | +1 |
| 6 | Ben Roethlisberger PIT (8) | 0 | -1 |
| 7 | Carson Palmer ARI (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Eli Manning NYG (8) | 0 | +2 |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford DET (10) | +8 | +9 |
| 10 | Derek Carr OAK (10) | +3 | +3 |
| 11 | Blake Bortles JAC (5) | -1 | -3 |
| 12 | Tom Brady NE (9) | -1 | -3 |
| 13 | Joe Flacco BAL (8) | +11 | +14 |
| 14 | Jameis Winston TB (6) | +2 | +3 |
| 15 | Philip Rivers SD (11) | -6 | -4 |
| 16 | Andy Dalton CIN (9) | +2 | -1 |
| 17 | Tyrod Taylor BUF (10) | -5 | -1 |
| 18 | Matt Ryan ATL (11) | +2 | +2 |
| 19 | Ryan Tannehill MIA (8) | +2 | +3 |
| 20 | Marcus Mariota TEN (13) | -1 | -1 |
| 21 | Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ (11) | +1 | +4 |
| 22 | Kirk Cousins WAS (9) | -7 | -8 |
| 23 | Jay Cutler CHI (9) | 0 | +3 |
| 24 | Tony Romo DAL (7) | -10 | -12 |
| 25 | Alex Smith KC (5) | 0 | -2 |
| 26 | Brock Osweiler HOU (9) | 0 | -2 |
| 27 | Teddy Bridgewater MIN (6) | +1 | -6 |
| 28 | Josh McCown CLE (13) | +9 | N/A |
| 29 | Sam Bradford PHI (4) | +2 | +2 |
| 30 | Mark Sanchez DEN (11) | -1 | N/A |
| 31 | Colin Kaepernick SF (8) | +2 | +1 |
| 32 | Carson Wentz PHI (4) | 0 | +1 |
| 33 | Jared Goff LA (8) | +1 | -5 |
| 34 | Blaine Gabbert SF (8) | -4 | +1 |
| 35 | Case Keenum LA (8) | +5 | N/A |
| 36 | Jimmy Garoppolo NE (9) | +5 | N/A |
| 37 | Robert Griffin CLE (13) | -10 | -8 |
| 38 | Paxton Lynch DEN (11) | 0 | -4 |
| 39 | Trevor Siemian DEN (11) | +3 | N/A |
| 40 | Cody Kessler CLE (13) | +8 | N/A |
Running Backs: Change at the Top
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Notable Changes in Rankings
1. David Johnson, ARI (up one spot)
2. Todd Gurley, LA (down one spot)
Ive been pondering this move since my initial rankings came out and decided to finally make it. While I understand the concern that Arizona's backfield has other options like Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington, David Johnson is a more versatile fantasy back in that he should lead his backfield in touches both as a runner and a receiver. The latter should be a much bigger role for him than Gurley will have with the Rams.
Also, when in doubt, I'll always suggest favoring the better situation. The Cardinals are a good team on both sides of the ball, so I don't have concerns that Johnson will lose carries because his team is playing from behind. Arizona's offense is far better than Los Angeles', and that should translate to more opportunities for Johnson.
After getting a look at quarterback Jared Goff, it's apparent he'll need some time to develop before he gets the starting job. That means the Rams will likely start Case Keenum, and that doesn't instill any confidence in strengthening their offense. Gurley is good enough to overcome the lack of talent around him, but there's enough concern to keep him out of the top spot.
23. Melvin Gordon, SD (up three spots)
Gordon still has a lot to prove, but the general feeling around him has flipped from last year, and he backed that up with a 44-yard receiving touchdown in San Diego's first preseason game. He looked comfortable, quick and dangerous with the ball in his hands, and that's a major boost for both his fantasy value and his confidence.
Concerns about Gordon's offensive line remain, and the presence of Danny Woodhead will limit his ceiling. He won't move much higher than this, if anywhere at all, but the positives are starting to add up.
35. Chris Ivory, JAC (up five spots)
36. T.J. Yeldon, JAC (down three spots)
This has little do with preseason action and is more about a realization I had regarding this backfield. Bringing in a veteran back on a fairly expensive price tag to join a second-year running back doesn't show a lot of confidence in Yeldon, which is understandable following an uninspired rookie season.
This looks like it will be a hot-hand situation where Ivory gets more work early in the season and keeps the lead as long as he performs and stays healthy. It's still a fantasy headache.
39. Derrick Henry, TEN (up five spots)
I underestimated Henry based on how I thought he would fit in the NFL compared to what he was asked to do in college. In watching him during the Titans' first preseason game, his strong numbers matched his performance.
While considered a power back with great size, he's a lot quicker than I remember and cuts well for a big man. I expected a Brandon Jacobs-type runner, but he's much more athletic than that. He'll be in the mix right away with DeMarco Murray, and I'd much rather have Henry since he won't cost nearly as much in drafts.
Targets Based on Value
Lamar Miller, HOU
My Ranking: RB3
ADP: 12, RB5
Eddie Lacy, GB
My Ranking: RB6
ADP: 26, RB10
C.J. Anderson, DEN
My Ranking: RB10
ADP: 38, RB14
Carlos Hyde, SF
My Ranking: RB11
ADP: 43, RB17
Danny Woodhead, SD
My Ranking: RB15
ADP: 52, RB20
Overvalues Based on ADP vs. Ranking
Jamaal Charles, KC
My Ranking: RB17
ADP: 18, RB8
DeMarco Murray, TEN
My Ranking: RB27
ADP: 51, RB19
Jonathan Stewart, CAR
My Ranking: RB45
ADP: 72, RB28
Jeremy Langford, CHI
My Ranking: RB33
ADP: 63, RB24
Jay Ajayi, MIA
My Ranking: RB41
ADP: 85, RB33
DeAngelo Williams, PIT
My Ranking: RB49
ADP: 84, RB32
Potential Sleepers
Charles Sims, TB
My Ranking: RB30
ADP: 87, RB33
Tevin Coleman, ATL
My Ranking: RB34
ADP: 104, RB40
Jerick McKinnon, MIN
My Ranking: RB44
ADP: 136, RB51
2016 Running Back PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | David Johnson ARI (9) | 0 | +1 |
| 2 | Todd Gurley LA (8) | 0 | -1 |
| 3 | Lamar Miller HOU (9) | +1 | +2 |
| 4 | Ezekiel Elliott DAL (7) | -1 | 0 |
| 5 | Adrian Peterson MIN (6) | 0 | -2 |
| 6 | Eddie Lacy GB (4) | +6 | +4 |
| 7 | Mark Ingram NO (5) | +2 | +2 |
| 8 | Devonta Freeman ATL (11) | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | Le'Veon Bell PIT (8) | -1 | -3 |
| 10 | C.J. Anderson DEN (11) | +3 | +4 |
| 11 | Carlos Hyde SF (8) | +4 | +6 |
| 12 | Doug Martin TB (6) | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | LeSean McCoy BUF (10) | -3 | -2 |
| 14 | Thomas Rawls SEA (5) | +4 | +2 |
| 15 | Danny Woodhead SD (11) | +4 | +5 |
| 16 | Dion Lewis NE (9) | -2 | -1 |
| 17 | Jamaal Charles KC (5) | -10 | -10 |
| 18 | Matt Forte NYJ (11) | -2 | -5 |
| 19 | Latavius Murray OAK (10) | -2 | -1 |
| 20 | Jeremy Hill CIN (9) | +6 | +6 |
| 21 | Matt Jones WAS (9) | +6 | +1 |
| 22 | Giovani Bernard CIN (9) | -1 | +1 |
| 23 | Melvin Gordon SD (11) | +6 | +7 |
| 24 | Duke Johnson CLE (13) | -4 | -3 |
| 25 | Frank Gore IND (10) | 0 | +4 |
| 26 | Ryan Mathews PHI (4) | -3 | -1 |
| 27 | DeMarco Murray TEN (13) | -5 | -8 |
| 28 | Ameer Abdullah DET (10) | +3 | +3 |
| 29 | Theo Riddick DET (10) | +6 | +10 |
| 30 | Charles Sims TB (6) | +2 | +4 |
| 31 | Arian Foster MIA (8) | -1 | -4 |
| 32 | Rashad Jennings NYG (8) | +1 | +6 |
| 33 | Jeremy Langford CHI (9) | -5 | -9 |
| 34 | Tevin Coleman ATL (11) | +7 | +6 |
| 35 | Chris Ivory JAC (5) | +1 | +1 |
| 36 | T.J. Yeldon JAC (5) | -2 | +1 |
| 37 | Shane Vereen NYG (8) | +8 | +10 |
| 38 | Isaiah Crowell CLE (13) | +4 | +3 |
| 39 | Derrick Henry TEN (13) | +4 | +3 |
| 40 | Darren Sproles PHI (4) | +6 | +10 |
| 41 | Jay Ajayi MIA (8) | -3 | -8 |
| 42 | Bilal Powell NYJ (11) | -2 | +1 |
| 43 | Justin Forsett BAL (8) | -4 | -8 |
| 44 | Jerick McKinnon MIN (6) | +6 | +8 |
| 45 | Jonathan Stewart CAR (7) | -21 | -17 |
| 46 | DeAndre Washington OAK (10) | +2 | -1 |
| 47 | Chris Thompson WAS (9) | +7 | +12 |
| 48 | Andre Ellington ARI (9) | +23 | +26 |
| 49 | DeAngelo Williams PIT (8) | -12 | -17 |
| 50 | LeGarrette Blount NE (9) | -1 | -1 |
| 51 | Shaun Draughn SF (8) | +8 | +15 |
| 52 | James Starks GB (4) | +1 | +6 |
| 53 | Jordan Howard CHI (9) | -1 | +2 |
| 54 | Cameron Artis-Payne CAR (7) | +24 | +19 |
| 55 | Spencer Ware KC (5) | +9 | +7 |
| 56 | Wendell Smallwood PHI (4) | +6 | +4 |
| 57 | Terrance West BAL (8) | +4 | +12 |
| 58 | Devontae Booker DEN (11) | -2 | -1 |
| 59 | Tim Hightower NO (5) | +7 | +9 |
| 60 | Josh Ferguson IND (10) | 0 | +5 |
| 61 | Javorius Allen BAL (8) | -10 | -10 |
| 62 | Charcandrick West KC (5) | +11 | -9 |
| 63 | Benny Cunningham LA (8) | +19 | +22 |
| 64 | Kenneth Dixon BAL (8) | -17 | -18 |
| 65 | James White NE (9) | +4 | +5 |
| 66 | Alfred Morris DAL (7) | -1 | -3 |
| 67 | Chris Johnson ARI (9) | +5 | -11 |
| 68 | Khiry Robinson NYJ (11) | +24 | +20 |
| 69 | Dexter McCluster TEN (13) | +20 | +27 |
| 70 | Mike Gillislee BUF (10) | +14 | +12 |
| 71 | Matt Asiata MIN (6) | +37 | N/A |
| 72 | Stevan Ridley DET (10) | +28 | +20 |
| 73 | Ronnie Hillman DEN (11) | +1 | -6 |
| 74 | Alfred Blue HOU (9) | +20 | +17 |
| 75 | Keith Marshall WAS (9) | 0 | +2 |
| 76 | Ka'Deem Carey CHI (9) | +4 | +2 |
| 77 | Fozzy Whittaker CAR (7) | +39 | N/A |
| 78 | Karlos Williams BUF (10) | -21 | -30 |
| 79 | Christine Michael SEA (5) | -21 | +4 |
| 80 | Darren McFadden DAL (7) | -25 | -26 |
| 81 | C.J. Spiller NO (5) | -14 | -17 |
| 82 | Alex Collins SEA (5) | +19 | -7 |
| 83 | Kenyan Drake MIA (8) | -7 | -12 |
| 84 | Mike Davis SF (8) | -7 | N/A |
| 85 | Branden Oliver SD (11) | +6 | N/A |
| 86 | Jonathan Williams BUF (10) | -3 | -14 |
| 87 | Robert Turbin IND (10) | +25 | -1 |
| 88 | Donald Brown NE (9) | +34 | N/A |
| 89 | C.J. Prosise SEA (5) | -45 | -45 |
| 90 | Lance Dunbar DAL (7) | -20 | -14 |
| 91 | Paul Perkins NYG (8) | -23 | -30 |
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Wide Receivers: Top of the Heap
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Notable Changes in Rankings
8. Allen Robinson, JAC (up two spots)
9. Dez Bryant, DAL (down one spot)
10. T.Y. Hilton, IND (down one spot)
I keep calling Robinson a superstar while at the same time harping on why I'd probably look elsewhere if Bryant was the top-ranked player on the board when it was my time to pick in the second round, so I decided to rank them as such.
The concerns about Bryant's quarterback situation didn't change because Dak Prescott played well in the team's first preseason game. If Tony Romo has trouble staying healthy yet again, Bryant's fantasy numbers will suffer.
I loved Robinson coming out of Penn State two years ago, and all he's done is produce and improve, so I have no reason to believe that is going to stop this year. Even if the volume in the offense isn't as high because Jacksonville's defense improves enough to keep the score closer, Robinson is the top option in a good offense.
38. Jordan Matthews, PHI (down eight spots)
My reservations with Matthews started when the team brought in Doug Pederson to replace Chip Kelly as the head coach. Kelly's offense was fantasy-friendly because of the volume, and that masked Matthews' poor play last season. He won't have the same safety net for fantasy under Pederson, but I had already built all that into his initial ranking of No. 29 at the position.
Then Matthews suffered a bone bruise in his knee August 8 with his return estimated at two to four weeks from that date, per Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News. I never assume the best or worst with injuries until we get concrete information, so I'm in wait-and-see mode with Matthews' return.
The Eagles complicated matters even further with the trade for Dorial Green-Beckham from the Titans, as they announced Tuesday. Green-Beckham was a disappointment in Tennessee last season but does bring the Eagles the size (6'5") they've been looking for at wide receiver. According to Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, Green-Beckham was traded because he "struggled mightily to pick up [the] playbook."
Expectations shouldn't be high for Green-Beckham, but because the Eagles made the trade, he should get his chance to play and could do just enough, especially as a big-bodied red-zone threat, to take away from Matthews. Too many factors are working against Matthews to have a lot of confidence in his fantasy production.
55. Michael Thomas, NO (up nine spots)
Preseason performances, especially in the first game, shouldn't cause a major rise in fantasy value, but they can prove hype is legit. That's the case with Thomas.
He's been touted as a star in training camp by just about everyone who's seen him, yet I didn't want to buy in until I saw it myself. His performance against the Patriots in the team's first preseason game was impressive enough to make me a believer, although it wasn't a hard jump to make when you know he's catching passes from Drew Brees.
There's room for Thomas to move up even more as long as he builds on each game in the preseason. I don't feel like I'm reaching on a talented player like Thomas when I have the comfort of knowing he'll be in a fantasy-friendly situation in New Orleans.
Targets Based on Value
Brandin Cooks, NO
My Ranking: WR6
ADP: 23, WR14
Brandon Marshall, NYJ
My Ranking: WR7
ADP: 19, WR10
T.Y. Hilton, IND
My Ranking: WR10
ADP: 27, WR16
Golden Tate, DET
My Ranking: WR13
ADP: 34, WR21
Donte Moncrief, IND
My Ranking: WR20
ADP: 49, WR27
Tyler Lockett, SEA
My Ranking: WR30
ADP: 75, WR34
Stefon Diggs, MIN
My Ranking: WR37
ADP: 110, WR44
Overvalues Based on Rankings vs. ADP
Jordy Nelson, GB
My Ranking: WR14
ADP: 15, WR9
Alshon Jeffery, CHI
My Ranking: WR22
ADP: 21, WR12
Jarvis Landry, MIA
My Ranking: WR23
ADP: 30, WR17
Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
My Ranking: WR29
ADP: 36, WR22
Jordan Matthews, PHI
My Ranking: WR38
ADP: 54, WR28
Potential Sleepers
Sterling Shepard, NYG
My Ranking: WR41
ADP: 98, WR40
Devin Funchess, CAR
My Ranking: WR43
ADP: 147, WR57
Michael Thomas, NO
My Ranking: WR55
ADP: 142, WR54
Phillip Dorsett, IND
My Ranking: WR56
ADP: 143, WR56
Tyler Boyd, CIN
My Ranking: WR65
ADP: 188, WR69
2016 Wide Receiver PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Antonio Brown PIT (8) | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Julio Jones ATL (11) | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8) | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | DeAndre Hopkins HOU (9) | +1 | 0 |
| 5 | A.J. Green CIN (9) | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Brandin Cooks NO (5) | +7 | +8 |
| 7 | Brandon Marshall NYJ (11) | +2 | +3 |
| 8 | Allen Robinson JAC (5) | -1 | -1 |
| 9 | Dez Bryant DAL (7) | -3 | -3 |
| 10 | T.Y. Hilton IND (10) | +6 | +6 |
| 11 | Keenan Allen SD (11) | -3 | -3 |
| 12 | Amari Cooper OAK (10) | +2 | +1 |
| 13 | Golden Tate DET (10) | +9 | +8 |
| 14 | Jordy Nelson GB (4) | -2 | -5 |
| 15 | Mike Evans TB (6) | -4 | -4 |
| 16 | Randall Cobb GB (4) | +4 | +4 |
| 17 | Demaryius Thomas DEN (11) | -2 | -2 |
| 18 | Sammy Watkins BUF (10) | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Jeremy Maclin KC (5) | +2 | +4 |
| 20 | Donte Moncrief IND (10) | +4 | +7 |
| 21 | Julian Edelman NE (9) | -2 | -2 |
| 22 | Alshon Jeffery CHI (9) | -12 | -10 |
| 23 | Jarvis Landry MIA (8) | -5 | -6 |
| 24 | Eric Decker NYJ (11) | -1 | +1 |
| 25 | John Brown ARI (9) | +5 | +6 |
| 26 | Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9) | +1 | 0 |
| 27 | DeVante Parker MIA (8) | +5 | +6 |
| 28 | Doug Baldwin SEA (5) | -3 | -4 |
| 29 | Kelvin Benjamin CAR (7) | -3 | -7 |
| 30 | Tyler Lockett SEA (5) | +4 | +4 |
| 31 | Michael Floyd ARI (9) | -3 | -2 |
| 32 | Emmanuel Sanders DEN (11) | -1 | -2 |
| 33 | Kevin White CHI (9) | +5 | +3 |
| 34 | Marvin Jones DET (10) | +2 | +3 |
| 35 | Josh Gordon CLE (13) | +7 | +4 |
| 36 | Allen Hurns JAC (5) | -1 | -4 |
| 37 | Stefon Diggs MIN (6) | +6 | +7 |
| 38 | Jordan Matthews PHI (4) | -9 | -10 |
| 39 | Michael Crabtree OAK (10) | -6 | -4 |
| 40 | DeSean Jackson WAS (9) | -3 | -2 |
| 41 | Sterling Shepard NYG (8) | -2 | -1 |
| 42 | Markus Wheaton PIT (8) | +7 | +3 |
| 43 | Devin Funchess CAR (7) | +12 | +14 |
| 44 | Vincent Jackson TB (6) | +4 | +9 |
| 45 | Willie Snead NO (5) | -5 | -3 |
| 46 | Pierre Garcon WAS (9) | +15 | +19 |
| 47 | Travis Benjamin SD (11) | 0 | +3 |
| 48 | Rishard Matthews TEN (13) | +10 | +16 |
| 49 | Steve Smith BAL (8) | +3 | 0 |
| 50 | Tavon Austin LA (8) | -4 | -3 |
| 51 | Chris Hogan NE (9) | +13 | +9 |
| 52 | Sammie Coates PIT (8) | +1 | 0 |
| 53 | Corey Coleman CLE (13) | -12 | -12 |
| 54 | Kamar Aiken BAL (8) | -9 | -6 |
| 55 | Michael Thomas NO (5) | -4 | -1 |
| 56 | Phillip Dorsett IND (10) | 0 | 0 |
| 57 | Torrey Smith SF (8) | -13 | -14 |
| 58 | Anquan Boldin DET (10) | +5 | +12 |
| 59 | Mohamed Sanu ATL (11) | -5 | -4 |
| 60 | Robert Woods BUF (10) | +12 | +18 |
| 61 | Dorial Green-Beckham TEN (13) | -4 | -10 |
| 62 | Kendall Wright TEN (13) | -2 | +5 |
| 63 | Breshad Perriman BAL (8) | +6 | -4 |
| 64 | Terrance Williams DAL (7) | +2 | +7 |
| 65 | Tyler Boyd CIN (9) | +2 | +4 |
| 66 | Laquon Treadwell MIN (6) | -16 | -20 |
| 67 | Cole Beasley DAL (7) | +25 | +32 |
| 68 | Seth Roberts OAK (10) | +5 | +7 |
| 69 | Kenny Britt LA (8) | +12 | +24 |
| 70 | Brandon LaFell CIN (9) | +1 | +7 |
| 71 | Justin Hardy ATL (11) | +15 | +12 |
| 72 | Bruce Ellington SF (8) | -13 | -6 |
| 73 | Mike Wallace BAL (8) | -11 | -5 |
| 74 | James Jones SD (11) | +43 | +23 |
| 75 | Rueben Randle PHI (4) | -1 | +5 |
| 76 | Jermaine Kearse SEA (5) | +3 | +9 |
| 77 | Danny Amendola NE (9) | +16 | +9 |
| 78 | Andrew Hawkins CLE (13) | +46 | N/A |
| 79 | Jarius Wright MIN (6) | +47 | N/A |
| 80 | Will Fuller HOU (9) | 0 | -8 |
| 81 | Eddie Royal CHI (9) | +16 | +26 |
| 82 | Ted Ginn CAR (7) | -5 | -6 |
| 83 | Ty Montgomery GB (4) | +26 | N/A |
| 84 | Chris Conley KC (5) | +18 | +14 |
| 85 | Josh Doctson WAS (9) | -20 | -27 |
| 86 | Cecil Shorts HOU (9) | +36 | +19 |
| 87 | Davante Adams GB (4) | -5 | -6 |
| 88 | Kenny Stills MIA (8) | +17 | N/A |
| 89 | Albert Wilson KC (5) | +7 | N/A |
| 90 | Victor Cruz NYG (8) | +1 | -27 |
| 91 | Quincy Enunwa NYJ (11) | +40 | N/A |
| 92 | Jamison Crowder WAS (9) | -16 | -1 |
| 93 | Leonard Hankerson BUF (10) | +32 | N/A |
| 94 | Philly Brown CAR (7) | +33 | N/A |
| 95 | Rashad Greene JAC (5) | +39 | N/A |
| 96 | Nelson Agholor PHI (4) | -28 | -35 |
| 97 | Brian Quick LA (8) | -9 | N/A |
| 98 | Jaelen Strong HOU (9) | -23 | -36 |
| 99 | Braxton Miller HOU (9) | +15 | -9 |
| 100 | Pharoh Cooper LA (8) | -16 | -13 |
Tight Ends: Searching for More
5 of 6
Notable Changes in Rankings
Ladarius Green, PIT (off the board)
Initially, Green was in my top 10 at tight end and the concern was about his recovery from ankle surgery that happened in January, which is why the team said (and still says) he's on the PUP list, according to head coach Mike Tomlin, per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com.
On August 11, NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala reported Green's real issues are recurring headaches. Those could stem from a pair of concussions he suffered in 11 days in September of last year. He also had a concussion in 2014.
Fowler said there's "still no clarity" on Green's future, yet he remains on the PUP list. So with no news and the possibility that concussion history plays a role in his absence, I've decided to take Green off the board completely. It's too risky of an issue to deal with, especially when you consider the concussions happened almost a year ago.
19. Vance McDonald, SF (up four spots)
Other than Carlos Hyde, I've suggested staying away from all San Francisco 49ers for fantasy purposes, and if you're heeding that advice, that's fine. If you're interested in a tight end who has a chance to make some noise, McDonald is an interesting option who won’t cost you anything more than a late-round flier.
With a bad quarterback situation and a receiving corps that doesn't have any established talent besides Torrey Smith, McDonald could find himself in a consistent role as a security blanket of sorts for whoever ends up playing quarterback. He's only getting mentioned because the tight end position isn't deep for fantasy.
Targets Based on Value
Zach Ertz, PHI
My Ranking: TE5
ADP: 90, TE9
Martellus Bennett, NE
My Ranking: TE12
ADP: 120, TE15
Zach Miller, CHI
My Ranking: TE14
ADP: 149, TE18
Overvalues Based on Rankings vs. ADP
Coby Fleener, NO
My Ranking: TE8
ADP: 67, TE6
(Note: This is about his ADP, not necessarily his TE6 ranking.)
Jimmy Graham, SEA
My Ranking: TE17
ADP: 116, TE13
Potential Sleepers
Clive Walford, OAK
My Ranking: TE16
ADP: 193, TE22
Vance McDonald, SF
My Ranking: TE19
ADP: 200-plus, TE26
Tyler Higbee, LA
My Ranking: TE29
ADP: 200-plus, TE30
2016 Tight End PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski NE (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Jordan Reed WAS (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce KC (5) | +1 | +1 |
| 4 | Greg Olsen CAR (7) | -1 | -1 |
| 5 | Zach Ertz PHI (4) | +3 | +4 |
| 6 | Delanie Walker TEN (13) | -1 | -1 |
| 7 | Tyler Eifert CIN (9) | +2 | 0 |
| 8 | Coby Fleener NO (5) | -2 | -2 |
| 9 | Gary Barnidge CLE (13) | -2 | -1 |
| 10 | Julius Thomas JAC (5) | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Antonio Gates SD (11) | 0 | +1 |
| 12 | Martellus Bennett NE (9) | +2 | +3 |
| 13 | Eric Ebron DET (10) | +2 | +3 |
| 14 | Zach Miller CHI (9) | +3 | +4 |
| 15 | Dwayne Allen IND (10) | -3 | -1 |
| 16 | Clive Walford OAK (10) | +4 | +6 |
| 17 | Jimmy Graham SEA (5) | +1 | -4 |
| 18 | Jason Witten DAL (7) | -5 | -1 |
| 19 | Vance McDonald SF (8) | +5 | +7 |
| 20 | Charles Clay BUF (10) | -1 | +1 |
| 21 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB (6) | 0 | -1 |
| 22 | Kyle Rudolph MIN (6) | +5 | +7 |
| 23 | Benjamin Watson BAL (8) | +2 | +5 |
| 24 | Jordan Cameron MIA (8) | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Jared Cook GB (4) | -3 | -6 |
| 26 | Jesse James PIT (8) | +5 | +11 |
| 27 | Jacob Tamme ATL (11) | +5 | -4 |
| 28 | Will Tye NYG (8) | -2 | -3 |
| 29 | Tyler Higbee LA (8) | +15 | +1 |
| 30 | Maxx Williams BAL (8) | +5 | +10 |
| 31 | Richard Rodgers GB (4) | -3 | +1 |
| 32 | Ryan Griffin HOU (9) | +13 | N/A |
| 33 | Jeff Heuerman DEN (11) | +1 | +5 |
| 34 | Virgil Green DEN (11) | +7 | +5 |
| 35 | Tyler Kroft CIN (9) | +21 | -8 |
| 36 | Lance Kendricks LA (8) | +1 | +5 |
| 37 | Brent Celek PHI (4) | +9 | N/A |
| 38 | Jace Amaro NYJ (11) | +4 | -7 |
| 39 | Darren Fells ARI (9) | +11 | N/A |
| 40 | Garrett Graham DEN (11) | +14 | N/A |
| 41 | C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU (9) | +19 | N/A |
| 42 | Niles Paul WAS (9) | +10 | N/A |
| 43 | Dion Sims MIA (8) | +20 | N/A |
| 44 | Mychal Rivera OAK (10) | -1 | N/A |
| 45 | Crockett Gillmore BAL (8) | +2 | N/A |
| 46 | Larry Donnell NYG (8) | -10 | N/A |
| 47 | Josh Hill NO (5) | -7 | N/A |
| 48 | Austin Hooper ATL (11) | -15 | -13 |
| 49 | Jermaine Gresham ARI (9) | +2 | N/A |
| 50 | Hunter Henry SD (11) | -12 | -17 |
| 51 | Luke Willson SEA (5) | +2 | N/A |
| 52 | Garrett Celek SF (8) | -3 | N/A |
| 53 | Jack Doyle IND (10) | +12 | N/A |
| 54 | Marcedes Lewis JAC (5) | +22 | N/A |
| 55 | Jeff Cumberland SD (11) | +7 | N/A |
| 56 | MyCole Pruitt MIN (6) | +2 | N/A |
| 57 | Gavin Escobar DAL (7) | +15 | N/A |
| 58 | Nick Vannett SEA (5) | +20 | N/A |
Defenses/Kickers: Take Care of Everything Else
6 of 6
Because I think so little of them and useful ones can be found on the waiver wire at almost any time, defenses and kickers are grouped together.
Defenses get slightly more love since strategy can be used to pick the right one, although that can still happen on a weekly basis if you play your cards right. It's not worth using a pick outside of the final two rounds to snatch up the Broncos or the Seahawks.
Once the third preseason game is played, I'll give some suggestions on defenses you can grab at the end of your draft or off the waiver wire that have favorable schedules to open the season.
I play in multiple leagues where kickers have been eliminated altogether in recent years, as the scoring is more random and unpredictable as a whole than the other positions. My kicker philosophy is to find an accurate one on a team with a good offense that isn't afraid to settle for a field goal.
You won't see a Saints kicker ranked, but the winner of the Connor Barth-Kai Forbath battle will likely end up in the top 10.
2016 Defense Draft Rankings
| 1 | Denver Broncos DEN (11) | +1 | 0 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks SEA (5) | -1 | 0 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals ARI (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers CAR (7) | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Houston Texans HOU (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams LA (8) | +2 | +2 |
| 7 | New England Patriots NE (9) | +2 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs KC (5) | -1 | -2 |
| 9 | New York Jets NYJ (11) | +2 | +1 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings MIN (6) | -4 | -1 |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals CIN (9) | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars JAC (5) | +5 | +3 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills BUF (10) | 0 | -1 |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers GB (4) | -2 | +2 |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders OAK (10) | 0 | -1 |
| 16 | Miami Dolphins MIA (8) | +2 | +2 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens BAL (8) | +2 | +5 |
| 18 | Philadelphia Eagles PHI (4) | -2 | +1 |
| 19 | New York Giants NYG (8) | +2 | -2 |
| 20 | Washington Redskins WAS (9) | +2 | +6 |
2016 Kicker Draft Rankings
| 1 | Stephen Gostkowski NE (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Steven Hauschka SEA (5) | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Justin Tucker BAL (8) | 0 | +1 |
| 4 | Mason Crosby GB (4) | 0 | +4 |
| 5 | Chandler Catanzaro ARI (9) | +1 | +6 |
| 6 | Graham Gano CAR (7) | +2 | -3 |
| 7 | Dan Bailey DAL (7) | -2 | -2 |
| 8 | Adam Vinatieri IND (10) | -1 | +2 |
| 9 | Brandon McManus DEN (11) | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Blair Walsh MIN (6) | 0 | -3 |
| 11 | Cairo Santos KC (5) | 0 | +2 |
| 12 | Matt Prater DET (10) | +2 | +6 |
| 13 | Josh Brown NYG (8) | -1 | +2 |
| 14 | Dan Carpenter BUF (10) | +1 | +9 |
| 15 | Josh Lambo SD (11) | +1 | +10 |
| 16 | Sebastian Janikowski OAK (10) | +2 | 0 |
| 17 | Chris Boswell PIT (8) | -4 | -11 |
| 18 | Mike Nugent CIN (9) | -1 | +3 |
| 19 | Greg Zuerlein LA (8) | +3 | N/A |
| 20 | Matt Bryant ATL (11) | +1 | +2 |
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.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")