Fantasy Football 2016: Matt Camp's Final Pre-Preseason Big Board
The preseason was supposed to be underway by now, but a bad paint job turned the Hall of Fame Game into an extended victory lap for Brett Favre.
Truthfully, I’m not a big fan of preseason football. While many have been waiting since the final whistle of the Super Bowl, I’d rather just quietly skip the preseason and move right along to regular-season action. Of course, I say that because of fantasy football.
If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league or for some reason you had to draft early, watching preseason action can be stressful. You’re just hoping everyone makes it out of their (hopefully) limited appearances without any injuries, but we know that doesn’t always happen. Ask Jordy Nelson, who’s still not back to practicing following last preseason’s torn ACL.
On the flip side, the preseason is important for the development of young players and to those learning new offenses, whether it’s because they switched teams or the team hired a new coordinator. I’ll be analyzing each game for my weekly Fantasy Notebook and updating my rankings accordingly.
What I’ll be focusing on in this article and subsequent updates are players with good values, potential sleepers and some you want to avoid either completely or at their current average draft position (ADP), which I’ll track as we move through the preseason.
With an abundance of leagues moving to the points-per-reception (PPR) format, that will be the standard format used in all rankings. If you’d rather see non-PPR rankings, you can find those here. The PPR rankings will get weekly updates similar to this one throughout the preseason, so be sure to keep checking back after each week of games.
Here’s one last look at my season rankings before the first games of August kick off on Thursday night.
Note: Some analysis of specific players is repeated from last week's rankings, though the ADP for each of them has been updated.
Top 100: Know What You Need
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Based on current ADP data, the first 100 picks are comprised of 10 quarterbacks, 39 running backs, 40 wide receivers and 11 tight ends. My top 100 isn't far off with 12 quarterbacks, 37 running backs, 42 wide receivers and nine tight ends.
If you subscribe to the best-player-available strategy, it makes sense to favor wide receivers since they have been more reliable than running backs as a whole and aren’t as easy to replace in terms of production. When enacting that strategy, you may find yourself torn between multiple players, so if a tie needs to be broken, I usually favor the player in the best situation.
Here are the teams I’d consider to be the most fantasy-friendly based on talent, coaching and volume:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Baltimore Ravens
- Indianapolis Colts
- Green Bay Packers
- Houston Texans
- New Orleans Saints
- New England Patriots
- Carolina Panthers
- Atlanta Falcons
And on the other side of that, here are some teams you might want to avoid for some of the same reasons:
- St. Louis Rams (besides Todd Gurley)
- Tennessee Titans
- San Francisco 49ers (besides Carlos Hyde)
- Cleveland Browns
2016 Top 100 Overall PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Antonio Brown PIT (8) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Julio Jones ATL (11) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8) | WR | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | DeAndre Hopkins HOU (9) | WR | +2 | +1 |
| 5 | Todd Gurley LA (8) | RB | -1 | -1 |
| 6 | David Johnson ARI (9) | RB | -1 | 0 |
| 7 | Lamar Miller HOU (9) | RB | +2 | +7 |
| 8 | A.J. Green CIN (9) | WR | 0 | -1 |
| 9 | Ezekiel Elliott DAL (7) | RB | +2 | 0 |
| 10 | Rob Gronkowski NE (9) | TE | -3 | +1 |
| 11 | Brandin Cooks NO (5) | WR | +12 | +12 |
| 12 | Adrian Peterson MIN (6) | RB | 0 | -4 |
| 13 | Brandon Marshall NYJ (11) | WR | +3 | +8 |
| 14 | Dez Bryant DAL (7) | WR | -4 | -4 |
| 15 | Eddie Lacy GB (4) | RB | +14 | +10 |
| 16 | T.Y. Hilton IND (10) | WR | +12 | +11 |
| 17 | Allen Robinson JAC (5) | WR | -4 | -4 |
| 18 | Keenan Allen SD (11) | WR | -3 | -2 |
| 19 | Mark Ingram NO (5) | RB | +3 | +5 |
| 20 | Devonta Freeman ATL (11) | RB | -6 | -3 |
| 21 | Le'Veon Bell PIT (8) | RB | -1 | -9 |
| 22 | Amari Cooper OAK (10) | WR | +2 | 0 |
| 23 | Golden Tate DET (10) | WR | +10 | +11 |
| 24 | C.J. Anderson DEN (11) | RB | +8 | +14 |
| 25 | Carlos Hyde SF (8) | RB | +16 | +17 |
| 26 | Doug Martin TB (6) | RB | +1 | +2 |
| 27 | Dion Lewis NE (9) | RB | +11 | +13 |
| 28 | Jordy Nelson GB (4) | WR | -9 | -13 |
| 29 | Mike Evans TB (6) | WR | -8 | -9 |
| 30 | LeSean McCoy BUF (10) | RB | -5 | -1 |
| 31 | Randall Cobb GB (4) | WR | +3 | +2 |
| 32 | Demaryius Thomas DEN (11) | WR | -6 | -6 |
| 33 | Thomas Rawls SEA (5) | RB | +13 | +8 |
| 34 | Sammy Watkins BUF (10) | WR | +1 | -3 |
| 35 | Jeremy Maclin KC (5) | WR | +2 | +4 |
| 36 | Danny Woodhead SD (11) | RB | +13 | +17 |
| 37 | Donte Moncrief IND (10) | WR | +14 | +11 |
| 38 | Jamaal Charles KC (5) | RB | -21 | -20 |
| 39 | Julian Edelman NE (9) | WR | -8 | -7 |
| 40 | Aaron Rodgers GB (4) | QB | 0 | +6 |
| 41 | Andrew Luck IND (10) | QB | +11 | +14 |
| 42 | Matt Forte NYJ (11) | RB | 0 | -7 |
| 43 | Cam Newton CAR (7) | QB | -4 | 0 |
| 44 | Jordan Reed WAS (9) | TE | -8 | -8 |
| 45 | Alshon Jeffery CHI (9) | WR | -27 | -26 |
| 46 | Travis Kelce KC (5) | TE | +10 | +14 |
| 47 | Jarvis Landry MIA (8) | WR | -17 | -17 |
| 48 | Eric Decker NYJ (11) | WR | -5 | +1 |
| 49 | Jeremy Hill CIN (9) | RB | +21 | +22 |
| 50 | John Brown ARI (9) | WR | +14 | +11 |
| 51 | Greg Olsen CAR (7) | TE | -7 | -7 |
| 52 | Latavius Murray OAK (10) | RB | -7 | -5 |
| 53 | Russell Wilson SEA (5) | QB | -3 | +6 |
| 54 | Ameer Abdullah DET (10) | RB | +25 | +25 |
| 55 | DeVante Parker MIA (8) | WR | +10 | +12 |
| 56 | Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9) | WR | -3 | -6 |
| 57 | Zach Ertz PHI (4) | TE | +26 | +33 |
| 58 | Kelvin Benjamin CAR (7) | WR | -10 | -21 |
| 59 | Matt Jones WAS (9) | RB | +9 | -2 |
| 60 | Duke Johnson CLE (13) | RB | -5 | -4 |
| 61 | Drew Brees NO (5) | QB | 0 | +8 |
| 62 | Doug Baldwin SEA (5) | WR | -15 | -17 |
| 63 | Jordan Matthews PHI (4) | WR | -6 | -11 |
| 64 | Tyler Lockett SEA (5) | WR | +12 | +11 |
| 65 | Giovani Bernard CIN (9) | RB | -6 | -3 |
| 66 | Ben Roethlisberger PIT (8) | QB | 0 | +7 |
| 67 | Frank Gore IND (10) | RB | +5 | +9 |
| 68 | Melvin Gordon SD (11) | RB | +9 | +9 |
| 69 | Michael Floyd ARI (9) | WR | -11 | -15 |
| 70 | DeMarco Murray TEN (13) | RB | -16 | -19 |
| 71 | Ryan Mathews PHI (4) | RB | -8 | -8 |
| 72 | Emmanuel Sanders DEN (11) | WR | -10 | -14 |
| 73 | Delanie Walker TEN (13) | TE | -13 | -7 |
| 74 | Theo Riddick DET (10) | RB | +23 | +22 |
| 75 | Charles Sims TB (6) | RB | +9 | +10 |
| 76 | Tyler Eifert CIN (9) | TE | +14 | -4 |
| 77 | Kevin White CHI (9) | WR | +11 | +3 |
| 78 | Carson Palmer ARI (9) | QB | -5 | +4 |
| 79 | Josh Gordon CLE (13) | WR | +21 | +23 |
| 80 | Marvin Jones DET (10) | WR | +1 | +4 |
| 81 | Allen Hurns JAC (5) | WR | -7 | -16 |
| 82 | Arian Foster MIA (8) | RB | -4 | +1 |
| 83 | Jeremy Langford CHI (9) | RB | -8 | -19 |
| 84 | T.J. Yeldon JAC (5) | RB | +1 | +8 |
| 85 | Eli Manning NYG (8) | QB | -3 | +12 |
| 86 | Coby Fleener NO (5) | TE | -17 | -18 |
| 87 | Rashad Jennings NYG (8) | RB | 0 | +11 |
| 88 | Gary Barnidge CLE (13) | TE | -2 | 0 |
| 89 | Michael Crabtree OAK (10) | WR | -18 | -15 |
| 90 | Stefon Diggs MIN (6) | WR | +16 | +27 |
| 91 | Matthew Stafford DET (10) | QB | +37 | +51 |
| 92 | DeSean Jackson WAS (9) | WR | -12 | -6 |
| 93 | Sterling Shepard NYG (8) | WR | +8 | +6 |
| 94 | Tevin Coleman ATL (11) | RB | +25 | +10 |
| 95 | Isaiah Crowell CLE (13) | RB | +21 | +11 |
| 96 | Shane Vereen NYG (8) | RB | +47 | +37 |
| 97 | Derek Carr OAK (10) | QB | +17 | +14 |
| 98 | Blake Bortles JAC (5) | QB | -5 | -4 |
| 99 | Tom Brady NE (9) | QB | -7 | -18 |
| 100 | Markus Wheaton PIT (8) | WR | +15 | +5 |
Quarterbacks: The Value Is There
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Notable Changes in Rankings
11. Blake Bortles, JAC (up three spots)
12. Tom Brady, NE (up one spot)
13. Andy Dalton, CIN (down one spot)
14. Joe Flacco, BAL (down three spots)
While I don’t think Bortles will need to throw as much this year (606 attempts in 2015), an improvement in his completion percentage (58.6 in 2015) should be there, and that still makes him a low-end starting fantasy option. Flacco moves down for now based on the uncertainty for the Ravens in their receiving corps, and to a lesser extent, their backfield.
16. Philip Rivers, SD (up one spot)
17. Jameis Winston, TB (up one spot)
18. Marcus Mariota, TEN (down two spots)
I’m a big believer in Mariota’s talent, but I’m worried about how he might be handcuffed by head coach Mike Mularkey’s idea of offense in 2016. Based on what Mularkey told Kevin Clark of The Ringer, he’s sticking with “the things I’ve had success with since 2001,” which isn’t necessarily a good thing.
Targets Based on Value
Carson Palmer, ARI—In 2015, Palmer posted a career-high nine games with at least 300 yards passing, and that’s coming off a 2014 campaign that was shortened by a torn ACL. Palmer has an abundance of talent in his receiving corps and will likely get a bigger boost out of the backfield with David Johnson leading the way.
Last week’s ADP: 85.0, QB8
This week’s ADP: 84.8, QB8
Eli Manning, NYG—Manning has attempted at least 600 passes and thrown for 4,400 yards and 30 touchdowns in the last two seasons, which obviously has a lot to do with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., but also a poor defense that put a lot more pressure on Manning and the offense to keep the team in games. While the Giants have invested a lot of money to improve their defense, they also added rookie wide receiver Sterling Shepard, who could make an immediate impact.
Last week’s ADP: 97.5, QB10
This week’s ADP: 97.5, QB10
Matthew Stafford, DET—Stafford may have burned fantasy owners in the past, but if you’re overlooking him this season, you must be ignoring how great he played in the second half of 2015. Over the final eight games of the season, Stafford threw 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions while completing 70 percent of his attempts.
Losing Calvin Johnson is big (and likely factors into Stafford's low ADP), but the addition of wide receivers Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin to join Golden Tate gives Stafford plenty of options when you also include tight end Eric Ebron and pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick out of the backfield. Hopefully, Ebron’s ankle injury is only a short-term problem, although it’s being called a "pretty decent sprain," according to ESPN.com’s Adam Caplan (via ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein).
Stafford is the perfect example of why you can’t hold a grudge over previous poor performances. Jump on him when others will be dumb enough to pass.
Last week’s ADP: 147.5, QB17
This week’s ADP: 146.3, QB17
Players to Avoid
Tony Romo, DAL—Romo’s name value seems to be carrying too much weight to fantasy players. Considering Romo hasn’t played a full season since 2012, is coming off breaking his collarbone twice last season and turned 36 in April, there’s enough to be concerned about if you stop there.
Factor in that Romo hasn’t attempted more than 535 passes or thrown for more than 3,828 yards in the last three seasons in what’s clearly a run-first offense, and you have way too much working against him. The Cowboys are woefully short at the position after losing backup Kellen Moore for 3-4 months due to a broken ankle, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.
Last week’s ADP: 124.5, QB13
This week’s ADP: 124.8, QB13
Potential Sleepers
Joe Flacco, BAL—I’ve never advocated Flacco as a reliable fantasy option, but a new coach can change perception quickly. When the Ravens brought Marc Trestman in from Chicago, he didn’t have a lot of success as a head coach, but he’s always been fantasy-friendly, as we saw with Josh McCown.
While Flacco was limited to just 10 games in 2015 due to a torn ACL, he tied a career high with five 300-yard games and set a career high with 279.1 yards per game. Flacco was averaging 41.3 attempts per game, which is almost three more than his next best season (2013).
According to Flacco, he’s not worried about playing in the preseason, per Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, and it’s not like he needs many reps at this point in his career. It would be nice to have a little more clarity in his receiving corps with players like Steve Smith Sr. and Breshad Perriman returning from injuries. From a volume standpoint alone, Flacco is worth looking at as a strong fantasy backup with starter potential.
Last week’s ADP: 195.8, QB23
This week’s ADP: 198.3, QB23
Other Names to Monitor
Jameis Winston, TB—Winston surpassed my expectations as a rookie and certainly has enough weapons around him to succeed, both in his receiving corps, led by Mike Evans, and the backfield with Doug Martin and Charles Sims. He has a chance to move up in my rankings before the end of the preseason.
Last week’s ADP: 141.8, QB16
This week’s ADP: 142.0, QB16
2016 Quarterback Draft Rankings
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers GB (4) | +1 | +1 |
| 2 | Andrew Luck IND (10) | +2 | +2 |
| 3 | Cam Newton CAR (7) | -2 | -2 |
| 4 | Russell Wilson SEA (5) | -1 | -1 |
| 5 | Drew Brees NO (5) | 0 | +1 |
| 6 | Ben Roethlisberger PIT (8) | 0 | -1 |
| 7 | Carson Palmer ARI (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Eli Manning NYG (8) | 0 | +2 |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford DET (10) | +8 | +8 |
| 10 | Derek Carr OAK (10) | +2 | +3 |
| 11 | Blake Bortles JAC (5) | -2 | -3 |
| 12 | Tom Brady NE (9) | -1 | -3 |
| 13 | Andy Dalton CIN (9) | +3 | +2 |
| 14 | Joe Flacco BAL (8) | +10 | +14 |
| 15 | Ryan Tannehill MIA (8) | +6 | +7 |
| 16 | Philip Rivers SD (11) | -6 | -5 |
| 17 | Jameis Winston TB (6) | +1 | -1 |
| 18 | Marcus Mariota TEN (13) | +1 | +1 |
| 19 | Matt Ryan ATL (11) | +1 | +1 |
| 20 | Tyrod Taylor BUF (10) | -6 | -2 |
| 21 | Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ (11) | +1 | +4 |
| 22 | Jay Cutler CHI (9) | +1 | +2 |
| 23 | Tony Romo DAL (7) | -10 | -11 |
| 24 | Alex Smith KC (5) | +1 | +3 |
| 25 | Kirk Cousins WAS (9) | -10 | -11 |
| 26 | Brock Osweiler HOU (9) | 0 | -3 |
| 27 | Teddy Bridgewater MIN (6) | 0 | -6 |
| 28 | Jared Goff LA (8) | +6 | -2 |
| 29 | Josh McCown CLE (13) | +8 | N/A |
| 30 | Sam Bradford PHI (4) | +2 | +1 |
| 31 | Mark Sanchez DEN (11) | -2 | N/A |
| 32 | Colin Kaepernick SF (8) | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Blaine Gabbert SF (8) | -3 | +2 |
| 34 | Carson Wentz PHI (4) | +7 | -1 |
| 35 | Jimmy Garoppolo NE (9) | +4 | N/A |
| 36 | Robert Griffin CLE (13) | -8 | -7 |
| 37 | Paxton Lynch DEN (11) | -1 | -3 |
| 38 | Trevor Siemian DEN (11) | -5 | N/A |
| 39 | Cody Kessler CLE (13) | +6 | N/A |
| 40 | Geno Smith NYJ (11) |
Running Backs: You're Just Getting Started
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Notable Changes in Rankings
7. Mark Ingram, NO (up two spots)
8. Devonta Freeman, ATL (down one spot)
9. Le’Veon Bell, PIT (down one spot)
This isn’t so much a change for Ingram as it is for Freeman and Bell. My concerns about Freeman’s role remain, especially if Tevin Coleman gets more targets in addition to the expected jump in carries. I initially projected Bell to return to top form, but I do wonder if the Steelers will ease him back after his potential four-game suspension considering he’s coming off a season shortened by PCL and MCL tears.
22. Matt Jones, WAS (up six spots)
I probably ranked Jones too low to begin with, so he gets a bump with no real threat to his carries, as noted by John Keim of ESPN.com, who said, “Jones is the starter and the guy the Redskins are most excited about. Period.”
34. Rashad Jennings, NYG (up two spots)
The Giants drove fantasy owners crazy last season with an unpredictable committee of sorts, but according to Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News, the committee is not in the plans for this year and Jennings is clearly the man in their backfield.
42. Jerick McKinnon, MIN (up three spots)
McKinnon got a bump in his receptions total, as I continue to believe the Vikings will be careful with how much they use Adrian Peterson this year. Keeping a talented player like McKinnon involved as a regular target in the passing game should only keep Peterson fresher as a runner.
Targets Based on Value
Carlos Hyde, SF—Hyde’s coming off a lost season thanks to a stress fracture in his foot that limited him to just seven games, so he’s still fairly unproven entering his third year. The excitement stems from his talent and the potential for a big workload and strong fantasy production in head coach Chip Kelly’s offense.
Under Kelly, the Eagles were 11th in rushing attempts in 2015, seventh in 2014 and fourth in 2013. Considering the 49ers don’t have much established talent in their passing game, Hyde should be leaned on heavily. If he can stay healthy, he could easily be a good RB1.
Last week’s ADP: 48.3, RB17
This week’s ADP: 42.5, RB17
Danny Woodhead, SD—While I may not have to do as much convincing as previous seasons, I still see Woodhead going lower than he should. He’s a polarizing player because of his unique role, but it’s a role he excels at in a big way. Last season, Woodhead was third among running backs in scoring and played every game. Obviously, his value takes a big hit in non-PPR formats, so you have to adjust accordingly.
In his two healthy seasons with the Chargers (2013, 2015), Woodhead racked up 156 receptions on 191 targets for 1,360 yards and 12 touchdowns as a receiver. He doesn’t do a lot of work as a runner, but he did have 204 carries for 765 yards and five touchdowns over that same span.
Even if Melvin Gordon is able to handle a consistent role as the team’s lead rusher, Woodhead is far too important in his role to lose significant touches. I’m not expecting him to repeat as an RB1, but he’s a perfect RB2 and a nice value.
Last week’s ADP: 54.5, RB20
This week’s ADP: 54.5, RB20
Players to Avoid
Jamaal Charles, KC—Including Charles in this group is simply about where he’s being drafted and not so much his talent. Yes, Charles has shown he can come back from a torn ACL and perform at a high level, but this is the second time he’ll have to return from a major knee injury. It’s fair to wonder if his explosive ability will come all the way back, especially with the amount of touches he’s racked up over an eight-year career.
One of my biggest concerns is how safe head coach Andy Reid will be with Charles, considering he’s been extra cautious with him in the past for something less serious, like an ankle sprain. Plus, with the team deciding to bring back Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, Reid knows he has other options he can trust besides Charles. Based on his ADP, expectations look way too high for Charles. I’d rather have him as a solid RB2 instead of the strong RB1 classification he’s getting.
Last week’s ADP: 17.8, RB7
This week’s ADP: 18.3, t-RB7
DeMarco Murray, TEN—Murray was a big bust in Philadelphia, but that’s only part of my concern with where he’s being drafted. He comes to a Tennessee team that has questions about their offensive identity. Murray had issues running out of the shotgun in Philadelphia, which is a concern since that’s the formation quarterback Marcus Mariota is most comfortable in, as we saw last year.
In June, Murray told Jim Rome of CBS Sports Radio that he liked head coach Mike Mularkey’s system because it’s strictly downhill, which is what he’s been accustomed to his entire life. The team still has an identity issue if it takes its franchise QB or starting RB out of their comfort zone.
Plus, you have the issue of selecting Derrick Henry in the second round of this year’s draft. That’s a strong investment in a running back, so there has to be worry about Murray’s workload. I don’t have confidence in the Titans as a whole, and this situation looks like it has the potential to get ugly. Even if he gets off to a good start, I don’t see Murray keeping it up as a reliable RB2.
Last week’s ADP: 52.0, RB19
This week’s ADP: 52.3, RB19
Jeremy Langford, CHI—The hype on Langford doesn’t make sense to me because he didn’t look particularly good last season (3.6 YPC) and you cannot assume he’s going to get the volume of a typical lead back. The Bears selected Jordan Howard in the fifth round of this year’s draft, and they still have experienced backs like Ka’Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers to threaten for touches.
According to Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune, head coach John Fox will likely stick with the committee approach, which “promises to be hell for fantasy owners.” To further that point, Dan Durkin of The Athletic notes that Fox has coached one team that’s had one back carry the ball 60 percent of the time.
Langford isn’t good enough to buck that trend and is far from a lock to be a solid RB2. Instead, he’s in a big group of RB3s you’ll likely have to shuffle in and out of your lineup all season, so don’t go reaching for him at his current ADP.
Last week’s ADP: 62.3, RB24
This week’s ADP: 63.5, RB25
Potential Sleepers
Tevin Coleman, ATL—As a rookie, Coleman was bitten by the injury bug during the preseason (hamstring), start of the regular season (ribs) and end of the regular season (concussion). In the midst of all that, Devonta Freeman stepped in and wound up as the top back in fantasy football. While Freeman’s fantasy production was strong, a deeper look at the numbers shows his rushing production fell off in a big way in the second half of the season.
After rushing for at least 100 yards four times in the first eight weeks, Freeman had just two games of at least 73 rushing yards the rest of the way. Over his final seven games, Freeman rushed 113 times for 347 yards (3.1 YPC) and just two rushing touchdowns.
The Falcons coaching staff seems to be well-aware of that and wants to do something about it. Running backs coach Bobby Turner told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter that "Free had a good year, but I’m expecting even a better year. Well, you’re saying, how can it be better? It can be even better with less carries or less catches because I’d obviously like to get Tevin (Coleman) more involved and that also keeps Free fresher.” According to Andrew Hirsh of the team’s site, they want to get Coleman more carries and feature him more in the passing game.
While I still think Freeman will have a big enough role, specifically in the passing game, to be a low RB1, not enough is being made about how much Coleman’s role could expand. The team was comfortable enough to enter last season with him as the starter and clearly want to get him involved more, so he’s definitely worth a shot as an RB4 with plenty of upside.
Last week’s ADP: 106.3, RB40
This week’s ADP: 106.3, RB40
Other Names to Monitor
Bilal Powell, NYJ—With Matt Forte out for the team’s first preseason game due to a hamstring injury, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, Powell’s ADP will be one to watch.
Last week’s ADP: 116.0, RB44
This week’s ADP: 116.0, RB44
DeAndre Washington, OAK—According to Jimmy Durkin of the Bay Area News Group, Washington is third on the team’s depth chart behind Latavius Murray and Taiwan Jones, but that should be taken with a grain of salt, as Washington will almost definitely be right behind Murray when Week 1 arrives.
Last week’s ADP: 152.5, RB52
This week’s ADP: 153.0, RB51
Wendell Smallwood, PHI—Smallwood won’t play in the preseason opener due to a quad injury, according to head coach Doug Pederson, per Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer. However, it should be noted that Ryan Mathews already missed time with an ankle injury, and considering his injury history, Smallwood would never be far away from increased opportunities.
Last week’s ADP: 178.0, RB60
This week’s ADP: 172.0, RB59
2016 Running Back PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Todd Gurley LA (8) | +1 | 0 |
| 2 | David Johnson ARI (9) | -1 | 0 |
| 3 | Lamar Miller HOU (9) | +1 | +3 |
| 4 | Ezekiel Elliott DAL (7) | -1 | 0 |
| 5 | Adrian Peterson MIN (6) | 0 | -2 |
| 6 | Eddie Lacy GB (4) | +6 | +4 |
| 7 | Mark Ingram NO (5) | +2 | +2 |
| 8 | Devonta Freeman ATL (11) | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | Le'Veon Bell PIT (8) | -1 | -4 |
| 10 | C.J. Anderson DEN (11) | +3 | +4 |
| 11 | Carlos Hyde SF (8) | +4 | +6 |
| 12 | Doug Martin TB (6) | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Dion Lewis NE (9) | +1 | +2 |
| 14 | LeSean McCoy BUF (10) | -4 | -3 |
| 15 | Thomas Rawls SEA (5) | +3 | +1 |
| 16 | Danny Woodhead SD (11) | +3 | +4 |
| 17 | Jamaal Charles KC (5) | -10 | -10 |
| 18 | Matt Forte NYJ (11) | -2 | -5 |
| 19 | Jeremy Hill CIN (9) | +7 | +8 |
| 20 | Latavius Murray OAK (10) | -3 | -2 |
| 21 | Ameer Abdullah DET (10) | +10 | +10 |
| 22 | Matt Jones WAS (9) | +3 | 0 |
| 23 | Duke Johnson CLE (13) | -2 | -2 |
| 24 | Giovani Bernard CIN (9) | -2 | -1 |
| 25 | Frank Gore IND (10) | +2 | +3 |
| 26 | Melvin Gordon SD (11) | +4 | +3 |
| 27 | DeMarco Murray TEN (13) | -7 | -8 |
| 28 | Ryan Mathews PHI (4) | -5 | -4 |
| 29 | Theo Riddick DET (10) | +7 | +9 |
| 30 | Charles Sims TB (6) | +2 | +3 |
| 31 | Arian Foster MIA (8) | -2 | +1 |
| 32 | Jeremy Langford CHI (9) | -4 | -7 |
| 33 | T.J. Yeldon JAC (5) | +1 | +2 |
| 34 | Rashad Jennings NYG (8) | -1 | +5 |
| 35 | Tevin Coleman ATL (11) | +8 | +5 |
| 36 | Isaiah Crowell CLE (13) | +6 | +5 |
| 37 | Shane Vereen NYG (8) | +9 | +11 |
| 38 | Justin Forsett BAL (8) | +1 | -2 |
| 39 | Darren Sproles PHI (4) | +6 | +11 |
| 40 | Chris Ivory JAC (5) | -5 | -3 |
| 41 | Jay Ajayi MIA (8) | -3 | -11 |
| 42 | Bilal Powell NYJ (11) | -2 | +2 |
| 43 | Jerick McKinnon MIN (6) | +7 | +10 |
| 44 | Jonathan Stewart CAR (7) | -20 | -18 |
| 45 | Derrick Henry TEN (13) | -1 | -3 |
| 46 | Jordan Howard CHI (9) | +6 | +9 |
| 47 | DeAndre Washington OAK (10) | +2 | 0 |
| 48 | DeAngelo Williams PIT (8) | -11 | -14 |
| 49 | LeGarrette Blount NE (9) | +2 | +2 |
| 50 | Shaun Draughn SF (8) | +10 | +15 |
| 51 | James Starks GB (4) | +5 | +7 |
| 52 | Andre Ellington ARI (9) | +15 | +21 |
| 53 | C.J. Prosise SEA (5) | -12 | -10 |
| 54 | Chris Thompson WAS (9) | +1 | +5 |
| 55 | Cameron Artis-Payne CAR (7) | +23 | +19 |
| 56 | Wendell Smallwood PHI (4) | +1 | +4 |
| 57 | Spencer Ware KC (5) | +11 | +7 |
| 58 | Devontae Booker DEN (11) | 0 | -2 |
| 59 | Tim Hightower NO (5) | +3 | +7 |
| 60 | Josh Ferguson IND (10) | -1 | +1 |
| 61 | Javorius Allen BAL (8) | -13 | -12 |
| 62 | Charcandrick West KC (5) | +8 | -10 |
| 63 | Benny Cunningham LA (8) | +18 | +23 |
| 64 | Kenneth Dixon BAL (8) | -17 | -19 |
| 65 | James White NE (9) | +1 | +3 |
| 66 | Chris Johnson ARI (9) | -5 | -9 |
| 67 | Darren McFadden DAL (7) | -14 | -13 |
| 68 | Khiry Robinson NYJ (11) | +16 | +20 |
| 69 | C.J. Spiller NO (5) | +4 | +1 |
| 70 | Dexter McCluster TEN (13) | +17 | +25 |
| 71 | Mike Gillislee BUF (10) | +9 | +12 |
| 72 | Matt Asiata MIN (6) | +32 | N/A |
| 73 | Ronnie Hillman DEN (11) | -9 | -4 |
| 74 | Alfred Blue HOU (9) | +12 | +16 |
| 75 | Terrance West BAL (8) | -6 | N/A |
| 76 | Keith Marshall WAS (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | Ka'Deem Carey CHI (9) | -2 | +1 |
| 78 | Fozzy Whittaker CAR (7) | +36 | N/A |
| 79 | Karlos Williams BUF (10) | -25 | -33 |
| 80 | Stevan Ridley DET (10) | +9 | +11 |
| 81 | Alex Collins SEA (5) | +9 | -6 |
| 82 | Kenyan Drake MIA (8) | -11 | -15 |
| 83 | Branden Oliver SD (11) | +17 | N/A |
| 84 | Jonathan Williams BUF (10) | +7 | -12 |
| 85 | Robert Turbin IND (10) | +20 | -1 |
| 86 | Donald Brown NE (9) | +35 | N/A |
| 87 | Alfred Morris DAL (7) | -13 | -24 |
| 88 | Lance Dunbar DAL (7) | -23 | -11 |
| 89 | Paul Perkins NYG (8) | -26 | -27 |
| 90 | Kelvin Taylor SF (8) | +9 | -8 |
| 91 | Christine Michael SEA (5) | -14 | -10 |
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Wide Receivers: Embrace the Youth
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Notable Changes in Rankings
13. Golden Tate, DET (up one spot)
14. Jordy Nelson, GB (down one spot)
15. Mike Evans, TB (up one spot)
16. Randall Cobb, GB (up one spot)
17. Demaryius Thomas, DEN (up one spot)
18. Sammy Watkins, BUF (down three spots)
Most of this shift is based on the injury situations for Nelson and Watkins. Nelson still hasn’t practiced at training camp, and while Watkins was cleared on Monday, the team is easing him back into the mix with scheduled days off, according to head coach Rex Ryan, per Sal Maiorana of the Democrat and Chronicle. Watkins admitted he’s “not where I need to be.”
31. Tyler Lockett, SEA (up eight spots)
I’ve been strong about my expectations for Lockett to make a significant jump this season, so I felt he needed a slight bump. However, I decided to move him up further over the last week. Jimmy Graham (knee) has yet to practice, and may not be close to the same player he once was in New Orleans. Also, ESPN.com’s Sheil Kapadia, one of the smartest reporters in the league, said, “It’s clear that the team is going to find ways to get [Lockett] consistent touches on a weekly basis.” Lock it up.
45. Steve Smith, BAL (down five spots)
The only assurance head coach John Harbaugh has given on Smith is that he’s expected to play in the opener, per Ryan Mink of the team's official website. When it comes to Smith playing in the preseason, Harbaugh said, “We’ll see.” Between the injury and a group of younger, healthier receivers ranked near Smith, it just made more sense to move him down since expectations shouldn’t be high.
Targets Based on Value
Brandon Marshall, NYJ—Marshall is coming off his sixth season (of 10) with at least 100 receptions and his eighth season with at least 1,000 yards. He’s never had the opportunity to play with a great quarterback at any point in his career, when you consider names like Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick, yet he should be on his way to Canton.
Because of that, I wasn’t too concerned with the idea of Geno Smith starting for the Jets this season, but that became a moot point (for now) after Ryan Fitzpatrick finally agreed to a new deal. Head coach Todd Bowles made it clear Fitzpatrick has the starting job, despite Smith leading the way in all offseason workouts, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra. Marshall tweeted a picture of Fitzpatrick’s arrival at the team’s facility and was clearly happy the situation was finally resolved.
I’m not sure why there’s so much confidence in players like Jordy Nelson (ADP 15, WR8), Keenan Allen (ADP 16.3, WR9) and Alshon Jeffery (ADP 18.5, WR10) to take them over Marshall when he’s done nothing but produce and remains in great shape. Considering he finished third in wide receiver fantasy points last year, I’m already building in a slight regression by ranking him as my WR7. Draft him with confidence.
Last week’s ADP: 20.8, WR12
This week’s ADP: 20.3, WR12
Brandin Cooks, NO—After an injury-shortened rookie year, Cooks took the step forward we hoped for in 2015 with 84 receptions for 1,138 yards and nine touchdowns. I think he’s capable of even more.
Cooks didn’t exactly light it up in the early part of the season, posting just one game with 100 yards and just one TD over the first seven weeks. He scored eight TDs and had three games of at least 100 yards in the final nine games.
Other than Willie Snead, the Saints don’t have an established wide receiver in the mix, and the only experienced receiver who will challenge Cooks for targets is new tight end Coby Fleener. Plus, the Saints will have an average defense, at best, meaning lots of pass attempts for Drew Brees.
Cooks wound up as the 13th-best fantasy receiver last season, yet is coming off the board as the 14th wide receiver this year. He could easily jump into the top 10 in 2016, and possibly the top five. Snatch him up if you can.
Last week’s ADP: 23.5, WR14
This week’s ADP: 23.8, WR14
Golden Tate, DET—I’ve already explained how well Matthew Stafford and the Lions played in the second half of last season, so I’m having a hard time with Tate coming off the board as the 21st wide receiver. He’s more of a high-end WR2 than a low-end WR2, and with Calvin Johnson gone, Tate has the potential to creep into WR1 territory.
Since joining the Lions in 2014, he’s led the team with 189 receptions on 272 targets, which comes out to an excellent 69.5 percent catch rate. The Lions added Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin this offseason, so while Tate will be considered the top option in the passing game, defenses still have to respect the rest of the receiving corps, including tight end Eric Ebron and running backs Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah. Of course, that’s if Ebron’s ankle injury doesn’t cost him time.
Moving to Jim Bob Cooter’s offense last season worked wonders for the Lions and should only help more with a full offseason to install the scheme. It’s an excellent situation for Tate to take a step forward.
Last week’s ADP: 35.0, WR21
This week’s ADP: 35.0, WR21
Tyler Lockett, SEA—Lockett is on the way up, as you won’t find many who aren’t believers in the second-year wide receiver for the Seahawks. I have him ranked a little higher than his current ADP, but if that rises just a little bit, he’ll be fairly valued.
Last week’s ADP: 75.8, WR35
This week’s ADP: 75.8, WR35
Players to Avoid
Doug Baldwin, SEA—Baldwin is one to avoid at his current draft position, but not completely. After the bye last season, Seattle clearly made an effort to ramp up its passing attack, and it worked, with Baldwin being the biggest beneficiary.
He was the third-best fantasy wide receiver over the season's final eight games, which included a five-game stretch that featured 11 touchdowns. That came after he was 41st at the position in fantasy scoring over the first eight games. It’s a huge difference that relied heavily on finding the end zone.
Baldwin’s rise picked up when the team lost Jimmy Graham to a torn patellar in Week 12. According to general manager John Schneider, per Seahawks.com's Tony Drovetto, the team plans on being careful with Graham, and he’s on track to be ready for Week 1, although he still hasn’t practiced.
With Graham expected back and Tyler Lockett also in the mix and on the rise, Baldwin is less likely to repeat his stellar performance from the end of last year. I don’t hate his low-WR2 classification, but spending a top-50 pick on him seems too rich.
Last week’s ADP: 45.3, WR24
This week’s ADP: 45.5, WR24
Alshon Jeffery, CHI—Because the Bears are letting Jeffery play on the franchise tag and injury concerns that won’t go away thanks to his latest hamstring injury—one that puts his status in question for the team’s first preseason game, according to Dan Wiederer of the Chicago Tribune—I’m still having trouble ranking Jeffery as anything more than a WR2.
Last week’s ADP: 18.5, WR10
This week’s ADP: 18.5, WR10
Corey Coleman, CLE—I don’t have Coleman ranked as high as his current ADP, but he seems to be slipping down draft boards, so as long as he doesn’t jump back up, I don’t have a major problem with his perceived value.
Last week’s ADP: 99.8, WR39
This week’s ADP: 100.8, WR41
Potential Sleepers
Kevin White, CHI—White isn’t a sleeper in the sense that he’d be coming out of nowhere to have a productive season, especially since he’s a former first-round draft pick of just a year ago, but in the sense that he could greatly outplay his current fantasy draft status and end up with better numbers than teammate Alshon Jeffery.
White’s rookie season was lost to a shin injury that eventually required surgery, so this year’s training camp will be the first he’s able to fully participate in during practice. The buzz around White is already picking up and will only continue if he’s able to flash his supreme talent during preseason action. White said he’s already put in time with quarterback Jay Cutler, and Cutler said White is “going to be something special,” per Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com.
Jeffery’s had issues staying on the field, including last year when he was limited to just nine games, and that likely played into the team’s decision to not offer him a long-term deal over his franchise tag. It also indicates that the team believes it has something more in White.
At his current ADP, he might be a steal in your draft, but if his talent shows up in preseason action, White could fly up draft boards. That’s somewhat in question since wide receivers coach Curtis Johnson told Dickerson that White is “getting used to everything.”
Last week’s ADP: 82.0, WR36
This week’s ADP: 81.8, WR36
Other Names to Monitor
Sterling Shepard, NYG—It’s no surprise to see Shepard already moving up draft boards, especially since head coach Ben McAdoo said he doesn’t know about Victor Cruz’s status for the team’s first preseason game due to Cruz’s “tight groin,” per Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News.
Last week’s ADP: 102.0, WR41
This week’s ADP: 100.3, WR39
Michael Thomas, NO
Last week’s ADP: 152.0, WR55
This week’s ADP: 150.0, WR55
Phillip Dorsett, IND
Last week’s ADP: 149.8, WR54
This week’s ADP: 148.3, WR54
Breshad Perriman, BAL—According to Ryan Mink of the team's official website, head coach John Harbaugh expects Perriman to play in Week 1, although unlike the veterans also working their way back from injury, Perriman needs all the reps he can get since he missed his entire rookie season.
Last week’s ADP: 182.3, WR65
This week’s ADP: 186.0, WR65
2016 Wide Receiver PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Antonio Brown PIT (8) | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Julio Jones ATL (11) | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8) | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | DeAndre Hopkins HOU (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | A.J. Green CIN (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Brandin Cooks NO (5) | +7 | +8 |
| 7 | Brandon Marshall NYJ (11) | +2 | +4 |
| 8 | Dez Bryant DAL (7) | -2 | -2 |
| 9 | T.Y. Hilton IND (10) | +7 | +7 |
| 10 | Allen Robinson JAC (5) | -3 | -3 |
| 11 | Keenan Allen SD (11) | -3 | -2 |
| 12 | Amari Cooper OAK (10) | +2 | +1 |
| 13 | Golden Tate DET (10) | +7 | +8 |
| 14 | Jordy Nelson GB (4) | -3 | -6 |
| 15 | Mike Evans TB (6) | -3 | -3 |
| 16 | Randall Cobb GB (4) | +5 | +4 |
| 17 | Demaryius Thomas DEN (11) | -2 | -2 |
| 18 | Sammy Watkins BUF (10) | +1 | 0 |
| 19 | Jeremy Maclin KC (5) | +3 | +4 |
| 20 | Donte Moncrief IND (10) | +6 | +6 |
| 21 | Julian Edelman NE (9) | -3 | -2 |
| 22 | Alshon Jeffery CHI (9) | -12 | -12 |
| 23 | Jarvis Landry MIA (8) | -6 | -6 |
| 24 | Eric Decker NYJ (11) | -1 | +1 |
| 25 | John Brown ARI (9) | +6 | +6 |
| 26 | DeVante Parker MIA (8) | +6 | +7 |
| 27 | Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Kelvin Benjamin CAR (7) | -3 | -6 |
| 29 | Doug Baldwin SEA (5) | -5 | -5 |
| 30 | Jordan Matthews PHI (4) | -2 | -2 |
| 31 | Tyler Lockett SEA (5) | +3 | +3 |
| 32 | Michael Floyd ARI (9) | -3 | -3 |
| 33 | Emmanuel Sanders DEN (11) | -3 | -3 |
| 34 | Kevin White CHI (9) | +4 | +2 |
| 35 | Josh Gordon CLE (13) | +4 | +4 |
| 36 | Marvin Jones DET (10) | 0 | +1 |
| 37 | Allen Hurns JAC (5) | -2 | -5 |
| 38 | Michael Crabtree OAK (10) | -5 | -3 |
| 39 | Stefon Diggs MIN (6) | +6 | +9 |
| 40 | DeSean Jackson WAS (9) | -3 | -2 |
| 41 | Sterling Shepard NYG (8) | 0 | -1 |
| 42 | Markus Wheaton PIT (8) | +7 | +1 |
| 43 | Steve Smith BAL (8) | +8 | +3 |
| 44 | Vincent Jackson TB (6) | +3 | +8 |
| 45 | Travis Benjamin SD (11) | +3 | +6 |
| 46 | Willie Snead NO (5) | -6 | -4 |
| 47 | Pierre Garcon WAS (9) | +15 | +20 |
| 48 | Dorial Green-Beckham TEN (13) | +5 | +2 |
| 49 | Tavon Austin LA (8) | -5 | -2 |
| 50 | Chris Hogan NE (9) | +13 | +14 |
| 51 | Sammie Coates PIT (8) | +3 | +3 |
| 52 | Devin Funchess CAR (7) | +5 | +5 |
| 53 | Laquon Treadwell MIN (6) | -3 | -8 |
| 54 | Breshad Perriman BAL (8) | +12 | +5 |
| 55 | Torrey Smith SF (8) | -12 | -11 |
| 56 | Corey Coleman CLE (13) | -14 | -15 |
| 57 | Phillip Dorsett IND (10) | -1 | -1 |
| 58 | Kamar Aiken BAL (8) | -12 | -9 |
| 59 | Mohamed Sanu ATL (11) | -7 | -6 |
| 60 | Rishard Matthews TEN (13) | 0 | +5 |
| 61 | Robert Woods BUF (10) | +9 | +18 |
| 62 | Anquan Boldin DET (10) | +2 | +8 |
| 63 | Terrance Williams DAL (7) | +4 | +8 |
| 64 | Michael Thomas NO (5) | -9 | -9 |
| 65 | Nelson Agholor PHI (4) | +3 | -4 |
| 66 | Brandon LaFell CIN (9) | +7 | +16 |
| 67 | Cole Beasley DAL (7) | +29 | +32 |
| 68 | Seth Roberts OAK (10) | +6 | +10 |
| 69 | Kenny Britt LA (8) | +19 | +25 |
| 70 | Kendall Wright TEN (13) | -12 | -7 |
| 71 | Tyler Boyd CIN (9) | -2 | +1 |
| 72 | Justin Hardy ATL (11) | +15 | +14 |
| 73 | Bruce Ellington SF (8) | -14 | -4 |
| 74 | Mike Wallace BAL (8) | -9 | -8 |
| 75 | Rueben Randle PHI (4) | -3 | +5 |
| 76 | Jermaine Kearse SEA (5) | +8 | +9 |
| 77 | James Jones SD (11) | +34 | +20 |
| 78 | Danny Amendola NE (9) | +1 | +6 |
| 79 | Andrew Hawkins CLE (13) | +42 | N/A |
| 80 | Jarius Wright MIN (6) | +45 | N/A |
| 81 | Will Fuller HOU (9) | +8 | -8 |
| 82 | Eddie Royal CHI (9) | 0 | +23 |
| 83 | Ted Ginn CAR (7) | -5 | -8 |
| 84 | Ty Montgomery GB (4) | +17 | N/A |
| 85 | Chris Conley KC (5) | +23 | +13 |
| 86 | Josh Doctson WAS (9) | -25 | -28 |
| 87 | Cecil Shorts HOU (9) | +28 | +16 |
| 88 | Davante Adams GB (4) | -7 | -20 |
| 89 | Kenny Stills MIA (8) | +17 | N/A |
| 90 | Albert Wilson KC (5) | +10 | N/A |
| 91 | Victor Cruz NYG (8) | -5 | -29 |
| 92 | Quincy Enunwa NYJ (11) | +45 | N/A |
| 93 | Jamison Crowder WAS (9) | -18 | -1 |
| 94 | Steve Johnson SD (11) | -17 | -18 |
| 95 | Leonard Hankerson BUF (10) | +25 | N/A |
| 96 | Philly Brown CAR (7) | +27 | N/A |
| 97 | Rashad Greene JAC (5) | +27 | N/A |
| 98 | Brian Quick LA (8) | -4 | N/A |
| 99 | Jaelen Strong HOU (9) | -28 | -39 |
| 100 | Braxton Miller HOU (9) | +2 | -11 |
| 101 | Pharoh Cooper LA (8) | -18 | -14 |
Tight Ends: Potential Is a Dangerous Word
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Notable Changes in Rankings
5. Zach Ertz, PHI (up one spot)
6. Delanie Walker, TEN (up one spot)
7. Tyler Eifert, CIN (down two spots)
The movement of these three players is all related to the ankle injury that Eifert suffered back in the Pro Bowl. While he’s out of his walking boot, Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com doesn’t expect Eifert back until “early in the regular season,” which indicates Eifert could miss multiple regular-season games.
12. Antonio Gates, SD (up one spot)
13. Martellus Bennett, NE (up four spots)
14. Eric Ebron, DET (down two spots)
The bump for Gates is connected to Ebron’s ankle injury, which is a "pretty decent sprain," according to ESPN.com’s Adam Caplan (via ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein). Ebron’s had health issues in the past, so the latest problem knocks him down a bit.
Bennett moves up because of his place in the context of New England’s offense. While it might be easy to dismiss Bennett with Rob Gronkowski ahead of him on the depth chart, remember that this team doesn’t have much on the outside and Julian Edelman is coming off multiple foot surgeries. The Patriots could easily stick with two tight ends in their base formation. Both Gronk and Bennett could be matchup nightmares.
Targets Based on Value
Zach Ertz, PHI—Ertz’s potential has been talked about since he entered the league in 2013, but it wasn’t until last year’s performance that he finally became a reliable fantasy option—and that didn’t even happen right away following sports hernia surgery that kept him out for the entire preseason.
In the midst of major offseason changes for the Philadelphia Eagles, most notably the firing of head coach Chip Kelly, the team made sure to lock up Ertz with a long-term deal in January. With that kind of commitment, Ertz should continue to have a big role in this offense, which should be a bit more conservative under new head coach Doug Pederson, at least compared to Kelly’s scheme.
Ertz was ninth in tight end fantasy points last season, so unless he starts to move up draft boards, he’s a nice value with a chance to improve on his career numbers from 2015. With wide receiver Jordan Matthews out 2-4 weeks thanks to a bone bruise, per Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News, Ertz may not last as a value for long.
Last week’s ADP: 91.5, TE10
This week’s ADP: 91.0, TE10
Players to Avoid
I’m not put off by any player’s ADP in the tight end group, but be careful with Coby Fleener (ADP 68.5, TE6) in New Orleans. He has a 58.4 percent catch rate for his career, which is terrible for a tight end.
Potential Sleepers
I had to pull Pittsburgh's Ladarius Green (ADP 89.5, TE9) off this list when Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reported that Green had two plates inserted into his ankle during the offseason. Green opened training camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and has to refine his cutting. He could fill a big role after the retirement of Heath Miller, the suspension of wide receiver Martavis Bryant and the potential suspension of running back Le’Veon Bell.
Other Names to Monitor
Martellus Bennett, NE—I’ve already detailed why I’m considering Bennett as a low-end starting fantasy option, but he’s not much of a value at his current ADP. He’s probably right where you’d expect him to be drafted, so we’ll see if anything changes.
Last week’s ADP: 122.8, TE14
This week’s ADP: 125.3, TE14
Clive Walford, OAK
Last week’s ADP: 182.3, TE22
This week’s ADP: 180.7, TE23
2016 Tight End PPR Draft Rankings
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski NE (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Jordan Reed WAS (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Travis Kelce KC (5) | +1 | +1 |
| 4 | Greg Olsen CAR (7) | -1 | -1 |
| 5 | Zach Ertz PHI (4) | +2 | +4 |
| 6 | Delanie Walker TEN (13) | -1 | -1 |
| 7 | Tyler Eifert CIN (9) | +2 | 0 |
| 8 | Coby Fleener NO (5) | -2 | -2 |
| 9 | Gary Barnidge CLE (13) | -1 | -1 |
| 10 | Julius Thomas JAC (5) | 0 | +1 |
| 11 | Ladarius Green PIT (8) | 0 | -1 |
| 12 | Antonio Gates SD (11) | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Martellus Bennett NE (9) | +2 | +2 |
| 14 | Eric Ebron DET (10) | +2 | +2 |
| 15 | Zach Miller CHI (9) | +2 | +3 |
| 16 | Dwayne Allen IND (10) | -3 | -2 |
| 17 | Clive Walford OAK (10) | +5 | +5 |
| 18 | Jimmy Graham SEA (5) | 0 | -5 |
| 19 | Jason Witten DAL (7) | -5 | -2 |
| 20 | Jordan Cameron MIA (8) | +1 | +3 |
| 21 | Charles Clay BUF (10) | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB (6) | -2 | -3 |
| 23 | Vance McDonald SF (8) | 0 | +2 |
| 24 | Kyle Rudolph MIN (6) | +3 | +4 |
| 25 | Benjamin Watson BAL (8) | -1 | +5 |
| 26 | Jared Cook GB (4) | 0 | -6 |
| 27 | Jacob Tamme ATL (11) | +7 | -3 |
| 28 | Will Tye NYG (8) | -3 | -1 |
| 29 | Maxx Williams BAL (8) | +7 | +7 |
| 30 | Richard Rodgers GB (4) | -2 | +1 |
| 31 | Ryan Griffin HOU (9) | +17 | N/A |
| 32 | Jeff Heuerman DEN (11) | +6 | +6 |
| 33 | Tyler Kroft CIN (9) | +17 | -7 |
| 34 | Virgil Green DEN (11) | +7 | +5 |
| 35 | Lance Kendricks LA (8) | -2 | +5 |
| 36 | Brent Celek PHI (4) | +9 | N/A |
| 37 | Darren Fells ARI (9) | +7 | N/A |
| 38 | Garrett Graham DEN (11) | +14 | N/A |
| 39 | Tyler Higbee LA (8) | +8 | -10 |
| 40 | Jesse James PIT (8) | +18 | N/A |
| 41 | C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU (9) | +18 | N/A |
| 42 | Niles Paul WAS (9) | +13 | N/A |
| 43 | Dion Sims MIA (8) | +18 | N/A |
| 44 | Mychal Rivera OAK (10) | -2 | N/A |
| 45 | Crockett Gillmore BAL (8) | +1 | N/A |
| 46 | Larry Donnell NYG (8) | -3 | N/A |
| 47 | Josh Hill NO (5) | -7 | N/A |
| 48 | Austin Hooper ATL (11) | -13 | -15 |
| 49 | Jermaine Gresham ARI (9) | 0 | N/A |
| 50 | Hunter Henry SD (11) | -13 | -18 |
| 51 | Luke Willson SEA (5) | 0 | N/A |
| 52 | Garrett Celek SF (8) | -20 | N/A |
| 53 | Jack Doyle IND (10) | +10 | N/A |
| 54 | Marcedes Lewis JAC (5) | +22 | N/A |
| 55 | Jeff Cumberland SD (11) | +7 | N/A |
| 56 | Jace Amaro NYJ (11) | -25 | -19 |
| 57 | MyCole Pruitt MIN (6) | -3 | N/A |
| 58 | Gavin Escobar DAL (7) | +14 | N/A |
| 59 | Nick Vannett SEA (5) | +18 | N/A |
Defenses: Don't Get Attached
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I’m sticking to my sound logic of waiting on a defensive selection until the final three rounds, or if you’re really smart, the final two rounds. The NFL is way too offensively driven to have consistently dominant fantasy defenses, so unless your scoring favors defenses, don’t be a hero and take the Broncos or Seahawks in the 10th round.
There are no values to discuss since most fantasy players are wise enough to wait until the end of the draft to grab their defense. You'll likely be working the waiver wire to find your defense. I suggest looking at the schedule to find defenses you can use for multiple weeks if they have a favorable stretch of games.
Consider the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants the possible sleeper defenses this season. Jacksonville gets Dante Fowler back from the injury that cost him his rookie season and spent a first-round pick on Jalen Ramsey to strengthen its secondary. It also added Prince Amukamara and Malik Jackson in free agency. The Giants spent big money in free agency to improve their woeful defense, but their value is tied to a favorable schedule, specifically in their own division.
2016 Defense Draft Rankings
| 1 | Denver Broncos DEN (11) | +1 | 0 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks SEA (5) | -1 | 0 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals ARI (9) | 0 | +1 |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers CAR (7) | 0 | -1 |
| 5 | Houston Texans HOU (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams LA (8) | 0 | +1 |
| 7 | New England Patriots NE (9) | +1 | +1 |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs KC (5) | -1 | -2 |
| 9 | New York Jets NYJ (11) | +1 | +1 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals CIN (9) | +2 | +2 |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings MIN (6) | -2 | -2 |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills BUF (10) | -1 | +1 |
| 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars JAC (5) | +3 | +3 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins MIA (8) | +3 | +5 |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers GB (4) | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens BAL (8) | +3 | +6 |
| 17 | Oakland Raiders OAK (10) | -2 | -3 |
| 18 | New York Giants NYG (8) | +3 | 0 |
| 19 | Philadelphia Eagles PHI (4) | -1 | -2 |
| 20 | Washington Redskins WAS (9) | +2 | +5 |
Kickers: Manage Your Priorities
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When it comes to kickers, you’re looking for accuracy and players in good situations with lots of opportunities to score. That explains why Stephen Gostkowski has been the best fantasy kicker for the last three years. He’s reliable, and the Patriots have a good offense. The same goes for Steven Hauschka in Seattle.
If I’m looking for a way to differentiate kickers, I’ll favor those who spend more than half the season indoors. Top options that fit in that category include Chandler Catanzaro in Arizona, Matt Prater in Detroit and Blair Walsh in Minnesota.
Don’t take a kicker until your last pick, and if you don’t have to draft a kicker, then use that pick for a flier at another position. You can always pick up a kicker before Week 1.
2016 Kicker Draft Rankings
| 1 | Stephen Gostkowski NE (9) | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Steven Hauschka SEA (5) | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Justin Tucker BAL (8) | 0 | +1 |
| 4 | Mason Crosby GB (4) | 0 | +3 |
| 5 | Graham Gano CAR (7) | +3 | -2 |
| 6 | Dan Bailey DAL (7) | -1 | -1 |
| 7 | Adam Vinatieri IND (10) | 0 | +3 |
| 8 | Chandler Catanzaro ARI (9) | -2 | +4 |
| 9 | Brandon McManus DEN (11) | +1 | 0 |
| 10 | Cairo Santos KC (5) | +1 | +5 |
| 11 | Matt Prater DET (10) | +3 | +6 |
| 12 | Josh Brown NYG (8) | 0 | +1 |
| 13 | Blair Walsh MIN (6) | -4 | -5 |
| 14 | Dan Carpenter BUF (10) | +1 | +8 |
| 15 | Chris Boswell PIT (8) | -2 | -9 |
| 16 | Josh Lambo SD (11) | +3 | +8 |
| 17 | Sebastian Janikowski OAK (10) | -1 | -1 |
| 18 | Mike Nugent CIN (9) | 0 | +3 |
| 19 | Phil Dawson SF (8) | +1 | N/A |
| 20 | Greg Zuerlein LA (8) | +2 | N/A |
Special thanks to our friends at FantasyPros for assisting with our rankings layout in addition to providing stats.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp on Twitter.
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