2016 Fantasy Football Draft Guide: The Ultimate Blueprint

The draft used to be the most enjoyable and most important day of the fantasy season. The excitement and fun are still there, but the importance has dwindled, as the ever-evolving world of fantasy football has made in-season maneuvering a bigger responsibility.

As much as we prepare, issues will arise. Injuries are the biggest concerns, especially at the running back position, which is why it’s so easy for a strong draft to go up in flames just weeks into your season. Just ask those who had Jamaal Charles or Arian Foster last year. However, a usually reliable group of quarterbacks, including Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, was rather disappointing as well. 

Taking those experiences and lessons learned into a new season will help you shape the way you construct your team, both during the draft and as you navigate the waiver wire. It’s fair to say that proper roster management has put a lot more onus on how proactive you are working the waiver wire compared to years past, when drafting well could put you on a path to victory.

This blueprint will take a look at the best ways to attack each position, with a focus on tiers, rookies, breakout players, potential busts and sleepers in points-per-reception leagues. We’ll examine my rankings at each position in addition to average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus ranking (ECR).

These rankings are coming to you from FantasyPros and will be the first of many updates I’ll provide between now and Week 1 of the regular season. Make sure to bookmark that link, as it will provide my most up-to-date projections.

Let’s jump into the start of another great year.

Top 100: The Shift Is Clear

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

No one fills up the stat sheet as consistently as Antonio Brown.

Whether you were burned by an injury or crowded backfields, it’s common knowledge that running backs aren’t as reliable as they used to be, and that’s resulted in a shift in draft philosophy in recent years. However, this is the first year I’m noticing a major change.

According to overall ADP data, wide receivers have accounted for seven of the first 12 picks, 14 of the first 24 picks and 22 of the first 36 picks in PPR leagues. That number could jump even higher if Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell does end up with a four-game suspension. 

With a higher premium placed on wide receivers, running backs who have a legit chance to end up in the RB1 category are still available at the end of the third round of your typical 12-team draft. That includes players such as Carlos Hyde of the San Francisco 49ers and C.J. Anderson of the Denver Broncos. 

Consistency and reliability should be the key traits you look for in early-round picks. That’s why Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown is on the top of my draft board once again. He’s coming off another monster season with 136 receptions, 1,834 yards and 10 touchdowns.

In 2015, Brown finished 65.3 points ahead of the top running back, Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons, so a slight regression wouldn’t be a big deal and would still justify his selection over any running back.

2016 Preseason Top 100 PPR Rankings

Rank	Player (team/bye)	Pos	ECR	Overall ADP
1	Antonio Brown (PIT/8)	WR	1	1
2	Julio Jones (ATL/11)	WR	2	2
3	Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG/8)	WR	3	3
4	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU/9)	WR	6	4
5	Todd Gurley (LA/8)	RB	5	5
6	David Johnson (ARI/9)	RB	4	6
7	Lamar Miller (HOU/9)	RB	10	13
8	A.J. Green (CIN/9)	WR	7	7
9	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL/7)	RB	9	9
10	Rob Gronkowski (NE/9)	TE	8	10
11	Adrian Peterson (MIN/6)	RB	12	8
12	Brandin Cooks (NO/5)	WR	23	22
13	Brandon Marshall (NYJ/11)	WR	20	21
14	Dez Bryant (DAL/7)	WR	11	11
15	Eddie Lacy (GB/4)	RB	29	24
16	T.Y. Hilton (IND/10)	WR	27	26
17	Allen Robinson (JAC/5)	WR	13	12
18	Devonta Freeman (ATL/11)	RB	16	18
19	Le'Veon Bell (PIT/8)	RB	21	50
20	Keenan Allen (SD/11)	WR	15	15
21	Mark Ingram (NO/5)	RB	22	23
22	Amari Cooper (OAK/10)	WR	24	20
23	Jordy Nelson (GB/4)	WR	14	14
24	C.J. Anderson (DEN/11)	RB	32	39
25	Carlos Hyde (SF/8)	RB	40	42
26	Doug Martin (TB/6)	RB	28	27
27	Dion Lewis (NE/9)	RB	39	38
28	LeSean McCoy (BUF/10)	RB	26	31
29	Golden Tate (DET/10)	WR	35	33
30	Sammy Watkins (BUF/10)	WR	37	30
31	Mike Evans (TB/6)	WR	19	19
32	Thomas Rawls (SEA/5)	RB	51	41
33	Randall Cobb (GB/4)	WR	31	32
34	Demaryius Thomas (DEN/11)	WR	25	25
35	Jeremy Maclin (KC/5)	WR	38	37
36	Danny Woodhead (SD/11)	RB	49	54
37	Kelvin Benjamin (CAR/7)	WR	45	36
38	Jamaal Charles (KC/5)	RB	17	16
39	Jordan Reed (WAS/9)	TE	34	35
40	Aaron Rodgers (GB/4)	QB	43	44
41	Andrew Luck (IND/10)	QB	52	55
42	Matt Forte (NYJ/11)	RB	36	34
43	Alshon Jeffery (CHI/9)	WR	18	17
44	Donte Moncrief (IND/10)	WR	50	48
45	Cam Newton (CAR/7)	QB	41	40
46	Travis Kelce (KC/5)	TE	58	62
47	Julian Edelman (NE/9)	WR	33	29
48	Jarvis Landry (MIA/8)	WR	30	28
49	Jeremy Hill (CIN/9)	RB	67	74
50	Greg Olsen (CAR/7)	TE	42	43
51	Eric Decker (NYJ/11)	WR	44	51
52	Latavius Murray (OAK/10)	RB	47	46
53	Russell Wilson (SEA/5)	QB	53	60
54	Ameer Abdullah (DET/10)	RB	78	78
55	John Brown (ARI/9)	WR	65	64
56	Tyler Eifert (CIN/9)	TE	86	68
57	DeVante Parker (MIA/8)	WR	68	66
58	Larry Fitzgerald (ARI/9)	WR	56	47
59	Duke Johnson (CLE/13)	RB	55	56
60	Giovani Bernard (CIN/9)	RB	57	65
61	Drew Brees (NO/5)	QB	62	71
62	Ben Roethlisberger (PIT/8)	QB	70	73
63	Jordan Matthews (PHI/4)	WR	54	49
64	Doug Baldwin (SEA/5)	WR	46	45
65	Emmanuel Sanders (DEN/11)	WR	60	58
66	Frank Gore (IND/10)	RB	69	77
67	Melvin Gordon (SD/11)	RB	76	79
68	DeMarco Murray (TEN/13)	RB	48	52
69	Michael Floyd (ARI/9)	WR	61	53
70	Ryan Mathews (PHI/4)	RB	64	61
71	Matt Jones (WAS/9)	RB	63	57
72	Kevin White (CHI/9)	WR	88	81
73	Zach Ertz (PHI/4)	TE	81	90
74	Theo Riddick (DET/10)	RB	93	92
75	Carson Palmer (ARI/9)	QB	77	83
76	Delanie Walker (TEN/13)	TE	59	67
77	Eli Manning (NYG/8)	QB	89	98
78	Charles Sims (TB/6)	RB	84	85
79	Josh Gordon (CLE/13)	WR	87	148
80	Michael Crabtree (OAK/10)	WR	73	75
81	Marvin Jones (DET/10)	WR	79	82
82	Allen Hurns (JAC/5)	WR	71	63
83	Jeremy Langford (CHI/9)	RB	72	59
84	Arian Foster (MIA/8)	RB	95	96
85	T.J. Yeldon (JAC/5)	RB	83	91
86	Coby Fleener (NO/5)	TE	74	70
87	Isaiah Crowell (CLE/13)	RB	117	107
88	Gary Barnidge (CLE/13)	TE	82	84
89	Steve Smith (BAL/8)	WR	116	104
90	Matthew Stafford (DET/10)	QB	132	151
91	Tyler Lockett (SEA/5)	WR	75	76
92	Justin Forsett (BAL/8)	RB	101	89
93	Rashad Jennings (NYG/8)	RB	100	97
94	Derek Carr (OAK/10)	QB	115	114
95	Stefon Diggs (MIN/6)	WR	108	111
96	Sterling Shepard (NYG/8)	WR	104	100
97	Julius Thomas (JAC/5)	TE	91	94
98	Shane Vereen (NYG/8)	RB	134	131
99	Markus Wheaton (PIT/8)	WR	107	102
100	Jay Ajayi (MIA/8)	RB	90	69

2016 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

Quarterbacks: Comeback Crew

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew Luck will bounce back in a big way following an injury-plagued 2015 campaign.

I’ll always suggest waiting on a quarterback, but sometimes seeing those big names and all the points that come with them might look too good to pass up. That likely cost you dearly last season if you used a high draft pick on Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.

However, if you waited on a quarterback, you may have scored big with Carson Palmer or hit the waiver wire for top-10 finishers such as Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins. Unless you’re in a big league (16 teams) or your rules don’t have positional roster limits, you should be able to play the matchups and work the waiver wire to find a reliable quarterback in any given week.

Chasing Cam Newton's dominant performance or Russell Wilson's hot finish last year will cost you a top-40 pick. That doesn’t leave a big margin for error and will likely weaken another position.

Here’s how QB shakes out:

• Tiers: With Luck and Rodgers coming off disappointing seasons for the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers, respectively, the top of the quarterback rankings aren’t as clear as they’ve been in recent years. I’m keeping both signal-callers at the top with Newton, since they should be able to bounce back in a big way. My projections for New England Patriots QB Tom Brady put him in that group if you're looking at a per-game average, but obviously, his suspension moves him down the draft board. My target zone is the 8-10 group, which features Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr.
• Rookies: Don’t expect much fantasy production from this year’s rookie class. Jared Goff isn’t in a fantasy-friendly situation with the Los Angeles Rams, and Carson Wentz might not even play, since the Philadelphia Eagles seem intent on keeping him on the bench behind Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, per Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice. Both are considered long-term dynasty prospects, not immediate fantasy contributors.
• Breakout: Joe Flacco’s success in reality has rarely translated to consistently strong fantasy numbers, but in 2015, he set a career high with a 64.4 completion percentage and tied a career high with five 300-yard games in just 10 appearances before going down with a torn ACL. Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is fantasy-friendly.
• Bust: When you put too much stock into name value and nostalgia, it can cost you dearly. That seems to be the case with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. He’s coming off the board as the 11th quarterback after another injury-plagued year. Romo hasn’t thrown for at least 3,900 yards in any of the last three seasons, and the Cowboys should be focused on the run more than ever with their new stud, No. 4 draft pick Ezekiel Elliott, leading the way in the backfield.
• Sleepers: If we’re going strictly by ADP, Stafford’s name is flashing in big, bright lights as a major value. He’s had great fantasy seasons in the past but has also been disappointing enough to kill his reputation, hence the ADP of 153. However, he turned in what may have been the best stretch of his career over the last eight games of 2015, when he posted the fourth-most fantasy points at the QB position. Also, keep an eye on Tennessee Titans signal-caller Marcus Mariota, who's entering his second season. His ability to run could be a big boost to his fantasy output.

2016 Preseason Quarterback Rankings

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR	ADP by Position
1	Aaron Rodgers (GB/4)	2	2
2	Andrew Luck (IND/10)	4	4
3	Cam Newton (CAR/7)	1	1
4	Russell Wilson (SEA/5)	3	3
5	Drew Brees (NO/5)	5	6
6	Ben Roethlisberger (PIT/8)	6	5
7	Carson Palmer (ARI/9)	7	7
8	Eli Manning (NYG/8)	8	10
9	Matthew Stafford (DET/10)	19	19
10	Derek Carr (OAK/10)	13	13
11	Joe Flacco (BAL/8)	24	28
12	Andy Dalton (CIN/9)	15	15
13	Tom Brady (NE/9)	11	9
14	Blake Bortles (JAC/5)	9	8
15	Ryan Tannehill (MIA/8)	21	22
16	Marcus Mariota (TEN/13)	18	17
17	Philip Rivers (SD/11)	10	12
18	Jameis Winston (TB/6)	17	16
19	Matt Ryan (ATL/11)	20	20
20	Tyrod Taylor (BUF/10)	16	18
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ/11)	22	29
22	Jay Cutler (CHI/9)	23	24
23	Tony Romo (DAL/7)	12	11
24	Alex Smith (KC/5)	25	26
25	Kirk Cousins (WAS/9)	14	14
26	Brock Osweiler (HOU/9)	26	23
27	Teddy Bridgewater (MIN/6)	28	21
28	Jared Goff (LA/8)	34	25
29	Josh McCown (CLE/13)	37	N/A
30	Sam Bradford (PHI/4)	33	31
31	Mark Sanchez (DEN/11)	29	N/A
32	Colin Kaepernick (SF/8)	32	32
33	Blaine Gabbert (SF/8)	31	35
34	Carson Wentz (PHI/4)	35	33
35	Jimmy Garoppolo (NE/9)	38	N/A
36	Robert Griffin (CLE/13)	27	27
37	Paxton Lynch (DEN/11)	39	34
38	Trevor Siemian (DEN/11)	41	N/A
39	Cody Kessler (CLE/13)	45	N/A
40	Geno Smith (NYJ/11)	30	N/A

Running Backs: Don't Invest Too Much

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Todd Gurley is entering his second season healthy and ready to make his mark in Los Angeles.

Whether it’s splintered backfields, players wearing down more quickly or just a lack of special talent at the position, dealing with running backs can be a major headache when it comes to managing your roster. However, it’s also one you cannot ignore because the position is volatile and can shift dramatically from week to week. 

If you were diligent on the waiver wire last year, you may have grabbed a superstar such as Devonta Freeman or scooped up David Johnson when others dropped him in favor of Chris Johnson. Those were moves that saved your season or strengthened your team even more. 

The key is being proactive when it comes to running backs no matter where you are in the standings. If you were riding high with Bell, it might have been easy to overlook available, ascending options at the position because you thought you were set with one of the best fantasy options in the league. A mistake like that can leave you scrambling when someone like Bell goes down, and those who had him last season likely were doing that. 

Because the position as a whole lacks consistent, week-to-week fantasy production, there's no need to invest heavily in it. If I come away with one running back in the first four rounds, so be it. I refuse to reach for any player just to fill a spot in my lineup. Maybe you’ll end up having three strong wide receivers and one great running back, but the production counts all the same in the end.

For the last few years, I haven’t put a major emphasis on my RB2 spot. If I don’t come out of the first four or five rounds with two RBs, the strategy focuses on finding multiple players to fill that spot over the season, since I don’t expect one to be locked into that role all year. At various times, I used Darren Sproles, Bilal Powell and Jeremy Langford to fill my RB2 spot with the expectation that they might not last there long.

Other than my RB1 spot, I’m looking for a mix of proven commodities and upside options to use in my other RB positions. A group like Lamar Miller, Duke Johnson, Ryan Mathews and Tevin Coleman isn’t a bad way to go into a season if you decide to focus on wide receivers.

Here’s how I’m approaching the position:

• Tiers: Todd Gurley and David Johnson are neck and neck for the top spot, and along with Miller and Elliott, they are the only backs I’d take in the first 12 picks. Peterson is just outside that group. The players in the 6-10 range are a clear step down, but values can be had if they fall into the 30s. I’ve projected Bell assuming he’ll be suspended four games, but expect him to be a strong RB1 upon his return.
• Rookies: Obviously, Elliott is all alone as the top rookie in a perfect situation. I’m not high on any of the other rookie backs, as I see a lot of committee situations for players like Jordan Howard in Chicago, DeAndre Washington in Oakland and Derrick Henry in Tennessee.
• Breakouts: Miller did well in a role that was too limited in Miami, so while he was still strong for fantasy, he should be better and more consistent in Houston as a focal point for the Texans. Carlos Hyde should be busy in San Francisco head coach Chip Kelly’s offense. I was happy to see the 49ers shut the 24-year-old down when they did last year since it was clear they weren’t going anywhere. He’ll be fresh and healthy as the key to their offense. Gordon will have limited fantasy potential in San Diego as long as Woodhead is around, so breakout might not be the best way to classify him. He should be a lot more reliable in his second season, however.
• Busts: Jamaal Charles is coming off yet another ACL injury, which would be enough reason to worry, but I also have a concern with Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. After seeing Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware handle themselves well in Charles’ absence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Reid play it safe with Charles and keep those two involved enough to hurt Charles’ fantasy production. The bust label is more about ADP and RB1 expectations for Charles. The DeMarco Murray-Derrick Henry tandem in Tennessee already looks like a headache on a bad team. The same goes for Langford in Chicago. Bears head coach John Fox has and will continue to use multiple backs. Plus, Langford isn’t that good.
• Sleepers: If Matt Jones hangs on to the football—and he’s been working on it, per CSN Mid-Atlantic's Rich Tandler—he doesn’t have any real competition to worry about in Washington and is primed for a big role. We saw glimpses of his potential last year, so he’s capable of taking a big step forward. I’m intrigued by Coleman in Atlanta since the team has openly talked about scaling back Freeman’s touches, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter. 

2016 Preseason Running Back PPR Rankings

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR	ADP by Position
1	Todd Gurley (LA/8)	2	2
2	David Johnson (ARI/9)	1	3
3	Lamar Miller (HOU/9)	4	6
4	Ezekiel Elliott (DAL/7)	3	5
5	Adrian Peterson (MIN/6)	5	4
6	Eddie Lacy (GB/4)	12	10
7	Devonta Freeman (ATL/11)	6	8
8	Le'Veon Bell (PIT/8)	8	1
9	Mark Ingram (NO/5)	9	9
10	C.J. Anderson (DEN/11)	13	14
11	Doug Martin (TB/6)	11	11
12	Carlos Hyde (SF/8)	16	17
13	Dion Lewis (NE/9)	15	15
14	LeSean McCoy (BUF/10)	10	12
15	Thomas Rawls (SEA/5)	19	16
16	Danny Woodhead (SD/11)	18	20
17	Jamaal Charles (KC/5)	7	7
18	Matt Forte (NYJ/11)	14	13
19	Jeremy Hill (CIN/9)	26	28
20	Latavius Murray (OAK/10)	17	18
21	Ameer Abdullah (DET/10)	30	30
22	Duke Johnson (CLE/13)	21	21
23	Giovani Bernard (CIN/9)	22	25
24	Frank Gore (IND/10)	27	29
25	Melvin Gordon (SD/11)	29	31
26	DeMarco Murray (TEN/13)	20	19
27	Ryan Mathews (PHI/4)	23	24
28	Matt Jones (WAS/9)	24	23
29	Theo Riddick (DET/10)	33	35
30	Charles Sims (TB/6)	32	32
31	Jeremy Langford (CHI/9)	28	22
32	T.J. Yeldon (JAC/5)	31	36
33	Isaiah Crowell (CLE/13)	42	39
34	Justin Forsett (BAL/8)	39	33
35	Rashad Jennings (NYG/8)	38	37
36	Arian Foster (MIA/8)	37	38
37	Shane Vereen (NYG/8)	45	48
38	Jay Ajayi (MIA/8)	34	26
39	Chris Ivory (JAC/5)	35	34
40	Darren Sproles (PHI/4)	49	49
41	Bilal Powell (NYJ/11)	41	44
42	Jonathan Stewart (CAR/7)	25	27
43	Jordan Howard (CHI/9)	51	55
44	Derrick Henry (TEN/13)	46	41
45	Jerick McKinnon (MIN/6)	48	53
46	Tevin Coleman (ATL/11)	43	40
47	DeAngelo Williams (PIT/8)	36	43
48	LeGarrette Blount (NE/9)	52	50
49	DeAndre Washington (OAK/10)	50	51
50	Shaun Draughn (SF/8)	64	71
51	James Starks (GB/4)	57	58
52	Andre Ellington (ARI/9)	68	75
53	C.J. Prosise (SEA/5)	40	42
54	Kenneth Dixon (BAL/8)	44	46
55	Javorius Allen (BAL/8)	47	47
56	Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR/7)	75	70
57	Tim Hightower (NO/5)	60	67
58	Wendell Smallwood (PHI/4)	56	60
59	Josh Ferguson (IND/10)	61	66
60	Khiry Robinson (NYJ/11)	80	87
61	Spencer Ware (KC/5)	70	64
62	Charcandrick West (KC/5)	72	52
63	Benny Cunningham (LA/8)	83	91
64	James White (NE/9)	62	65
65	Chris Johnson (ARI/9)	67	57
66	Darren McFadden (DAL/7)	53	54
67	C.J. Spiller (NO/5)	69	73
68	Dexter McCluster (TEN/13)	89	96
69	Devontae Booker (DEN/11)	58	56
70	Ronnie Hillman (DEN/11)	63	72
71	Mike Gillislee (BUF/10)	77	83
72	Matt Asiata (MIN/6)	107	N/A
73	Alfred Blue (HOU/9)	85	90
74	Keith Marshall (WAS/9)	82	68
75	Chris Thompson (WAS/9)	54	59
76	Ka'Deem Carey (CHI/9)	81	79
77	Fozzy Whittaker (CAR/7)	114	N/A
78	Karlos Williams (BUF/10)	55	45
79	Stevan Ridley (DET/10)	88	92
80	Alex Collins (SEA/5)	93	76
81	Kenyan Drake (MIA/8)	66	63
82	Branden Oliver (SD/11)	105	N/A
83	Jonathan Williams (BUF/10)	91	69
84	Robert Turbin (IND/10)	92	85
85	Donald Brown (NE/9)	102	N/A
86	Alfred Morris (DAL/7)	76	62
87	Lance Dunbar (DAL/7)	65	77
88	Paul Perkins (NYG/8)	59	61
89	Tre Mason (LA/8)	90	89
90	Kelvin Taylor (SF/8)	104	82
91	Christine Michael (SEA/5)	74	78

Wide Receivers: Focus on Foundation

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Another record-setting season isn't out of the question for Julio Jones.

As mentioned earlier, the shift to relying on wide receivers is more apparent than ever before, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. The league is more geared toward passing, and the most talented players don’t have to worry about losing significant targets and can do more with less.

With the abundance of wide receivers coming off the board in the first three rounds, the high-end depth doesn’t last long, but the good news is that there’s a lot of it. There are at least 12 players I’d feel comfortable with as a WR1 and a lot of upside in the group just outside of that, which is why I'd be confident opening my draft with two wide receivers or three in the first four rounds. 

Plus, the youth at the position is plentiful, and as we’ve seen, you don’t necessarily have to wait three years for a wide receiver to bust out. This is easily the best I’ve ever felt about the position.

This is how I view the wide receivers: 

• Tiers: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. are on a level all their own, but not too far behind are DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green. The next group will still be right up there with the top running backs, which explains why so many are coming off the board early. Amari Cooper is the last WR1 as my 12th-ranked player at wide receiver.
• Rookies: Sterling Shepard's landing with the New York Giants might be the best-case scenario for a rookie who can contribute immediately. With Beckham drawing the most attention, Shepard should excel against lesser cornerbacks, and Manning is excellent when it comes to making receivers around him better. Don't get too about Corey Coleman in Cleveland. That quarterback situation isn’t good, especially if the Browns are committed to Robert Griffin III as the starter. I like Laquon Treadwell’s talent but am worried he won't get enough chances in a Minnesota Vikings offense that still features star running back Adrian Peterson and has QB Teddy Bridgewater in development.
• Breakouts: Cooper and Brandin Cooks are the best bets to become reliable WR1s, although that’s not a major leap for either player based on their talent and situations. Donte Moncrief took a step forward during an ugly season for the Colts, but with the return of Luck, you can expect him to go from a solid WR3 to a good WR2 with upside. He’s the perfect example of how a great situation can elevate a player’s fantasy potential. Tyler Lockett’s rookie season with the Seattle Seahawks was a gradual improvement, but his ceiling remains high. Hopefully, Seattle keeps ramping up its passing attack, as we saw down the stretch.
• Bust: On the flip side of the Lockett ascension is Doug Baldwin. He was 41st in fantasy points over the first eight games of last season in PPR scoring and third in the last eight games thanks to a five-game stretch of 11 touchdowns. He’ll cost you a fourth-round pick as the 24th wide receiver off the board, so while expectations aren’t as high as his strong finish, they are higher than they’ve ever been before entering a new season. Between the rise of Lockett and return of Jimmy Graham, Baldwin will be closer to the WR3 he’s been for most of his career.
• Sleepers: Shepard can be a reliable WR3 out of the gate as a rookie, so he has to be a sleeper candidate with an ADP of 101.3 in PPR leagues. He won’t cost you much and may need a few weeks to get healthy and acclimated, but Breshad Perriman is my pick to lead the Ravens in receiving. He’s their most talented receiver and is a great fit with Flacco.     

2016 Preseason Wide Receiver PPR Rankings

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR	ADP by Position
1	Antonio Brown (PIT/8)	1	1
2	Julio Jones (ATL/11)	2	2
3	Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG/8)	3	3
4	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU/9)	4	4
5	A.J. Green (CIN/9)	5	5
6	Brandin Cooks (NO/5)	13	14
7	Brandon Marshall (NYJ/11)	12	13
8	Dez Bryant (DAL/7)	6	6
9	T.Y. Hilton (IND/10)	16	16
10	Allen Robinson (JAC/5)	7	7
11	Keenan Allen (SD/11)	8	9
12	Amari Cooper (OAK/10)	14	12
13	Jordy Nelson (GB/4)	9	8
14	Golden Tate (DET/10)	20	21
15	Sammy Watkins (BUF/10)	21	19
16	Mike Evans (TB/6)	11	11
17	Randall Cobb (GB/4)	17	20
18	Demaryius Thomas (DEN/11)	15	15
19	Jeremy Maclin (KC/5)	22	23
20	Kelvin Benjamin (CAR/7)	24	22
21	Alshon Jeffery (CHI/9)	10	10
22	Donte Moncrief (IND/10)	26	27
23	Jarvis Landry (MIA/8)	18	17
24	Eric Decker (NYJ/11)	23	28
25	John Brown (ARI/9)	31	32
26	DeVante Parker (MIA/8)	32	33
27	Larry Fitzgerald (ARI/9)	28	25
28	Julian Edelman (NE/9)	19	18
29	Jordan Matthews (PHI/4)	27	26
30	Doug Baldwin (SEA/5)	25	24
31	Emmanuel Sanders (DEN/11)	29	30
32	Michael Floyd (ARI/9)	30	29
33	Josh Gordon (CLE/13)	38	55
34	Kevin White (CHI/9)	39	36
35	Michael Crabtree (OAK/10)	34	35
36	Marvin Jones (DET/10)	36	37
37	Allen Hurns (JAC/5)	33	31
38	Steve Smith (BAL/8)	49	42
39	Tyler Lockett (SEA/5)	35	34
40	Stefon Diggs (MIN/6)	47	47
41	Sterling Shepard (NYG/8)	41	40
42	Markus Wheaton (PIT/8)	45	43
43	Vincent Jackson (TB/6)	50	51
44	Steve Johnson (SD/11)	66	68
45	Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN/13)	52	48
46	Pierre Garcon (WAS/9)	59	67
47	DeSean Jackson (WAS/9)	37	38
48	Laquon Treadwell (MIN/6)	46	44
49	Tavon Austin (LA/8)	43	46
50	Chris Hogan (NE/9)	62	58
51	Sammie Coates (PIT/8)	63	54
52	Devin Funchess (CAR/7)	58	57
53	Travis Benjamin (SD/11)	51	50
54	Breshad Perriman (BAL/8)	68	60
55	Willie Snead (NO/5)	40	41
56	Torrey Smith (SF/8)	44	45
57	Kendall Wright (TEN/13)	55	61
58	Rishard Matthews (TEN/13)	60	64
59	Corey Coleman (CLE/13)	42	39
60	Mohamed Sanu (ATL/11)	53	52
61	Robert Woods (BUF/10)	76	76
62	Phillip Dorsett (IND/10)	57	59
63	Terrance Williams (DAL/7)	69	69
64	Kamar Aiken (BAL/8)	48	49
65	Anquan Boldin (DET/10)	65	92
66	Brandon LaFell (CIN/9)	73	86
67	Cole Beasley (DAL/7)	95	99
68	Seth Roberts (OAK/10)	72	96
69	Kenny Britt (LA/8)	74	79
70	Tyler Boyd (CIN/9)	70	70
71	Nelson Agholor (PHI/4)	67	63
72	Rueben Randle (PHI/4)	71	77
73	Justin Hardy (ATL/11)	85	102
74	Mike Wallace (BAL/8)	61	62
75	Michael Thomas (NO/5)	54	53
76	Jermaine Kearse (SEA/5)	89	87
77	Danny Amendola (NE/9)	82	82
78	Andrew Hawkins (CLE/13)	114	N/A
79	Jarius Wright (MIN/6)	117	N/A
80	Will Fuller (HOU/9)	79	66
81	Eddie Royal (CHI/9)	88	109
82	Ted Ginn (CAR/7)	80	75
83	Bruce Ellington (SF/8)	64	81
84	Ty Montgomery (GB/4)	101	N/A
85	Chris Conley (KC/5)	92	106
86	Josh Doctson (WAS/9)	56	56
87	Cecil Shorts (HOU/9)	105	105
88	Davante Adams (GB/4)	86	80
89	Kenny Stills (MIA/8)	99	N/A
90	Albert Wilson (KC/5)	94	N/A
91	Victor Cruz (NYG/8)	91	65
92	Quincy Enunwa (NYJ/11)	134	N/A
93	Jamison Crowder (WAS/9)	78	88
94	Leonard Hankerson (BUF/10)	116	N/A
95	Philly Brown (CAR/7)	98	N/A
96	Rashad Greene (JAC/5)	129	N/A
97	Brian Quick (LA/8)	107	N/A
98	Jaelen Strong (HOU/9)	77	91
99	Braxton Miller (HOU/9)	100	78
100	Pharoh Cooper (LA/8)	87	84

Tight Ends: Handful of Consistency

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Last year, Jordan Reed finally realized his potential. Can he stay healthy enough to do it again?

Old and reliable can work at tight end, so you don’t have to invest a high pick in one unless you plan on taking Rob Gronkowski in the first round. He will give you an advantage over your opponent every week—and that has value—but what about the rest? 

The difference between Gronkowski and the sixth-best TE, Tyler Eifert, was 64.1 points last season. The difference between Eifert and the 11th-best TE, Richard Rodgers, was 31.4 points. It’s hard to suggest a major difference in what you can get from tight ends in the 6-15 range. 

Of the tight ends who played at least 11 games last season, 15 of them averaged at least 10 fantasy points, which is up from the 11 who did it in 2014. Of those 15, only six players averaged at least 14 fantasy points (Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed, Gary Barnidge, Greg Olsen, Eifert), so that’s where you can make the divide. 

Gronkowski, Reed, Travis Kelce, Eifert and Olsen are the best group because they’re reliable with high ceilings. We’ve seen plenty of tight ends with potential but not nearly enough reach it. 

Here’s a breakdown of the TE position:

• Tiers: Gronkowski is still alone at the top, although the gap closed a bit last year with the rise of Reed. Walker is the last TE I feel good about before we get into a group of players with legit concerns about their situations, injury history and talent.
• Rookies: Don’t rely on any rookie tight ends. Hunter Henry in San Diego is the most talented of the rookies, but he still has Antonio Gates in his way. Austin Hooper in Atlanta might have a quicker path to playing time with Jacob Tamme atop the Falcons depth chart, but he’s still a long shot to have fantasy value in 2016. Tyler Higbee could get on the field for the Rams with Lance Kendricks as his only roadblock to significant snaps.
• Breakouts: Steelers tight end Ladarius Green has a chance to be in this group, but it might not happen right away. Green looks like he has a favorable situation to replace Heath Miller, since the Steelers will be without Martavis Bryant for the season and without Bell for four games. Miller was an active, reliable target for QB Ben Roethlisberger in the red zone, and Green could step right into that role. He’s coming off his best season and was a fantasy starter in San Diego when Gates missed time last year. However, the ankle surgery Green had in January included the insertion of two plates, and as a result, the 26-year-old opened training camp on the physically unable to perform list, per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com. Before we can consider him a breakout, he has to get over the ankle issues.
• Bust: There doesn’t appear to be a true bust based on ADP, but the hype on Coby Fleener is a bit out of control. While the Saints offense turned veteran Ben Watson into a reliable fantasy option last season, Fleener has a 58.4 percent catch rate for his career, which is horrible. With an ADP of 70.5 as the seventh TE off the board, I can’t justify taking him that high.
• Sleepers: He’s been a top TE in the past, but it’s fair to call Martellus Bennett a sleeper because he’s sharing the field with Gronkowski and is being taken as the 14th TE with an ADP of 122.8. We’ve seen the Patriots use two-tight end sets in the past, and with a lack of size and reliable depth at wide receiver, it would make perfect sense to put Bennett and Gronkowski on the field at the same time. Clive Walford has a chance to take a big step forward in his second season with the Raiders, but he’ll "be eased" into training camp following an ATV accident during the offseason, per Adam Caplan of ESPN.com. Jordan Cameron isn't a bad deep sleeper in Miami with new head coach Adam Gase's TE-friendly offense.

2016 Preseason Tight End PPR Rankings

#	Player (Team/Bye)	ECR	Positional ADP
1	Rob Gronkowski NE (9)	1	1
2	Jordan Reed WAS (9)	2	2
3	Travis Kelce KC (5)	4	4
4	Greg Olsen CAR (7)	3	3
5	Tyler Eifert CIN (9)	9	7
6	Zach Ertz PHI (4)	7	8
7	Delanie Walker TEN (13)	5	5
8	Coby Fleener NO (5)	6	6
9	Gary Barnidge CLE (13)	8	9
10	Julius Thomas JAC (5)	11	11
11	Ladarius Green PIT (8)	10	10
12	Eric Ebron DET (10)	13	15
13	Antonio Gates SD (11)	12	12
14	Zach Miller CHI (9)	17	18
15	Dwayne Allen IND (10)	14	16
16	Jimmy Graham SEA (5)	18	13
17	Martellus Bennett NE (9)	16	14
18	Clive Walford OAK (10)	22	20
19	Jason Witten DAL (7)	15	17
20	Jordan Cameron MIA (8)	21	24
21	Charles Clay BUF (10)	20	22
22	Jared Cook GB (4)	23	21
23	Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB (6)	19	19
24	Vance McDonald SF (8)	25	25
25	Kyle Rudolph MIN (6)	27	28
26	Benjamin Watson BAL (8)	26	29
27	Jacob Tamme ATL (11)	39	23
28	Will Tye NYG (8)	24	27
29	Maxx Williams BAL (8)	38	N/A
30	Richard Rodgers GB (4)	30	33
31	Ryan Griffin HOU (9)	45	N/A
32	Jeff Heuerman DEN (11)	32	36
33	Tyler Kroft CIN (9)	47	26
34	Virgil Green DEN (11)	41	N/A
35	Lance Kendricks LA (8)	35	39
36	Brent Celek PHI (4)	49	N/A
37	Darren Fells ARI (9)	42	N/A
38	Garrett Graham DEN (11)	46	N/A
39	Tyler Higbee LA (8)	33	30
40	C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU (9)	57	N/A
41	Niles Paul WAS (9)	48	N/A
42	Dion Sims MIA (8)	59	N/A
43	Mychal Rivera OAK (10)	56	N/A
44	Crockett Gillmore BAL (8)	43	N/A
45	Larry Donnell NYG (8)	37	N/A
46	Josh Hill NO (5)	44	N/A
47	Austin Hooper ATL (11)	29	31
48	Jermaine Gresham ARI (9)	50	N/A
49	Luke Willson SEA (5)	51	N/A
50	Garrett Celek SF (8)	52	N/A
51	Jack Doyle IND (10)	61	N/A
52	Marcedes Lewis JAC (5)	68	N/A
53	Jeff Cumberland SD (11)	62	N/A
54	Jace Amaro NYJ (11)	34	37
55	MyCole Pruitt MIN (6)	54	N/A
56	Gavin Escobar DAL (7)	67	N/A
57	Jesse James PIT (8)	58	N/A
58	Hunter Henry SD (11)	31	32
59	Nick Vannett SEA (5)	73	34

Defenses: Wait to Win

Harry How/Getty Images

The Denver Broncos defense sits atop the rankings, but it doesn't mean you have to draft it early...or at all.

As always, my best advice for selecting defenses is to stop chasing last year's points. The best defenses don't always produce for fantasy, and the worst ones can get lucky with some opportunistic TDs—like the Giants, who had six touchdowns on defense and special teams. That made New York an above-average fantasy defense, despite the fact it gave up the most total yards per game in the league.

There's no reason to take a defense outside the final three rounds, but you will see someone in your league try to take the top-ranked Broncos in the 10th round even though they outscored the fifth-ranked Panthers by just 17 fantasy points. Dominant defenses don’t exist in fantasy football, and they haven’t in years. 

The approach for defenses is as follows:

• Tiers: The Broncos, Seahawks, Cardinals, Panthers and Texans lead the way. You probably won’t see a major difference in defense rankings if you look around. Those teams have plenty of talent, and all like to run the ball, which tends to go hand-in-hand when you have a great defense.
• Breakouts: The Jacksonville Jaguars will likely be a waiver-wire grab, but they’ve invested a lot in their defense through the draft. They snagged cornerback Jalen Ramsey at No. 5 in 2016 and defensive lineman Dante Fowler Jr. at No. 3 the year before, in addition to signing defensive tackle Malik Jackson and cornerback Prince Amukamara this offseason. Head coach Gus Bradley might finally have the pieces to put together a strong unit.
• Busts: There are no busts of note based on ADP as long as you don't take a defense too early.
• Sleepers: While the Giants haven’t had much success on the defensive side in a while, they spent a lot of money this offseason to fix those woes on the defensive line and secondary. Their schedule isn’t much of a worry, especially in an average NFC East, so they could surprise this year.

2016 Preseason Defense Rankings

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR	ADP by Position
1	Denver Broncos (DEN/11)	2	1
2	Seattle Seahawks (SEA/5)	1	2
3	Arizona Cardinals (ARI/9)	3	3
4	Carolina Panthers (CAR/7)	4	4
5	Houston Texans (HOU/9)	5	5
6	Los Angeles Rams (LA/8)	6	7
7	New England Patriots (NE/9)	8	8
8	Kansas City Chiefs (KC/5)	7	6
9	New York Jets (NYJ/11)	11	9
10	Buffalo Bills (BUF/10)	12	12
11	Cincinnati Bengals (CIN/9)	9	13
12	Minnesota Vikings (MIN/6)	10	11
13	Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC/5)	17	15
14	Miami Dolphins (MIA/8)	15	18
15	Green Bay Packers (GB/4)	13	16
16	Baltimore Ravens (BAL/8)	18	19
17	New York Giants (NYG/8)	22	17
18	Philadelphia Eagles (PHI/4)	16	20
19	Oakland Raiders (OAK/10)	19	14
20	Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT/8)	14	10

Kickers: Don't Worry About It

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Graham Gano finished last season as a top-five kicker, but fantasy players likely scooped him off the waiver wire.

Analyzing kickers is a waste of your time, so don’t stress out about it.

The basic strategy is to get an accurate kicker on a team with a good offense, since he should get plenty of opportunities to score. Don't take a kicker until the final round, if you have to take one at all. If you don’t, just grab one off the waiver wire when needed.

The kickers at the top of my rankings, such as Steven Hauschka in Seattle and Stephen Gostkowski in New England, are reliable and play on good teams. While it’s not a bad idea to get a kicker who’s indoors for more than half the season, it’s also nice having someone who can handle the elements, such as Mason Crosby in Green Bay. 

2016 Preseason Kicker Rankings

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR	ADP by Position
1	Stephen Gostkowski (NE/9)	1	1
2	Steven Hauschka (SEA/5)	2	3
3	Justin Tucker (BAL/8)	3	4
4	Mason Crosby (GB/4)	5	7
5	Graham Gano (CAR/7)	8	2
6	Dan Bailey (DAL/7)	4	5
7	Adam Vinatieri (IND/10)	7	10
8	Chandler Catanzaro (ARI/9)	6	11
9	Brandon McManus (DEN/11)	9	9
10	Cairo Santos (KC/5)	11	13
11	Matt Prater (DET/10)	13	17
12	Josh Brown (NYG/8)	12	14
13	Blair Walsh (MIN/6)	10	8
14	Dan Carpenter (BUF/10)	15	21
15	Chris Boswell (PIT/8)	14	6
16	Josh Lambo (SD/11)	17	25
17	Sebastian Janikowski (OAK/10)	22	16
18	Mike Nugent (CIN/9)	16	22
19	Phil Dawson (SF/8)	19	N/A
20	Greg Zuerlein (LA/8)	21	N/A

Final Thoughts: Be Ready to Pivot

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

When in doubt, look to fantasy-friendly coaches like the Arizona Cardinals' Bruce Arians.

You can read up on every player, listen to fantasy advice from people like me and break down every position into tiers, but if someone throws a curveball with a surprise pick right in front of you, any strategy you mapped out may have to change on the fly. That’s why my general advice, especially early on, is to lean toward the best players available and be fluid with your plan. 

When the draft is done, your work is far from over. Working the waiver wire is how you win championships. You might select a nice foundation, but that foundation will crack along the way. You need to be ready when it does, whether that means preparing for a letdown following a strong start or rebuilding following a bad injury (or two).

The draft is one of the best days of the year, but it’s only the beginning. Don’t let yourself get too high or too low when it’s over. You’ll probably need to find the next David Johnson, Bortles or Diggs. So pay attention during the preseason action and keep checking back in with our content, since we’ll have plenty of it both on the text and video side to guide you along the way.

Special thanks to our friends at FantasyPros for assisting with our rankings layout in addition to providing stats.

Do you have a fantasy question? Follow @TheMattCamp on Twitter.