NFL Predictions Week 10: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

An unprecedented three teams are still undefeated as the NFL season hits Week 10, while two teams have already fired their head coach (and another, its president and general manager).

It's the sad reality of the NFL that some teams—and their fans—are already focused on next year. Whether that's players competing for pride (and/or job security), coaches phoning up buddies to see if they have any openings on their staff or fans poring over NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller's work, this season is pretty much done for the 14 teams with three wins or less.

Nevertheless, the NFL is big business, and gigs in the industry are incredibly hard to get and keep. Even if players and coaches are motivated only by pride and job security, well, they have a lot of pride and very little security.

Plenty of underperforming teams, coaches and players will be driven to be among the best performances of the week. Will they succeed? Can they win? Will their forlorn, forsaken fans have a reason to cheer—or at least hope?

As with every week, our eight-expert panel projected the NFL's best and worst, sleepers and flops, overs and unders for Week 10 as well as they (or anybody) can.

Biggest Upset

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Expert Consensus Pick: Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over New York Jets—four votes

It's the weekend's most anticipated matchup: Rex Ryan's old team against Rex Ryan's new team. Despite that, Ryan insists "it's just another opponent right now," per NFL Media's Dan Hanzus.

You don't buy that, of course, and neither do our experts.

The Jets are 5-3, one game ahead of the Bills in the AFC East and needing a win to keep anywhere near the undefeated New England Patriots. Though their defense is stout—the ninth-best scoring defense in the NFL—it's not quite the all-time unit many thought they had assembled. Yet their offense is surprisingly effective, with journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick leading them to an 11th-best 25 points-per-game scoring average.

The Bills are much the same: Their less-than-the-sum-of-its-parts defense is ranked 16th in scoring, but their out-of-nowhere offense, led by Tyrod Taylor, is racking up an eighth-best average 26.1 points per game.

Vegas likes the Jets, but four of our experts like Rex Ryan to find a way to prove a point against his old employer.

Others receiving votes: Cleveland Browns (+4.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers—three votes; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) over Dallas Cowboys

Biggest Blowout

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Expert Consensus Pick: Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions—four votes

The last time the Lions beat the Packers in Wisconsin, Brett Favre was a little-used rookie on the Atlanta Falcons and Aaron Rodgers had just turned eight years old.

Though Matthew Stafford has given the Packers a few runs for their money in his first four attempts at breaking the streak, these two franchises are going in opposite directions. The 1-7 Lions just had their entire executive staff fired, while the Packers are 6-2 and likely to win yet another NFC North crown.

Though the Packers have struggled in two straight losses to undefeated teams, the Lions' last-ranked scoring defense should get them right back on track. 

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans—three votes; Baltimore Ravens over Jacksonville Jaguars

Higher Total: Buffalo Bills Sacks or New York Jets Sacks?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Jets

Rex Ryan and Jets head coach Todd Bowles are two birds of a feather: tough, aggressive, defense-first head coaches who love to get after the passer with a huge, fast, physical front seven.

Though Bowles has done a fine job with Ryan's old defense—it's ranked ninth in per-game points allowed and sixth in per-play yards allowed—they're not getting many sacks. In fact, they rank just 22nd in sack rate, per Pro Football Reference, bringing opposing quarterbacks down on just 5.1 percent of pass attempts.

Even more surprising, the Bills' talent-loaded front seven has produced one of the weakest pass rushes in the NFL. They rank fourth-worst, with a sack rate of just 3.9 percent.

The key to this matchup, though, is not in which defense performs better, but in which quarterback is sacked less often. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the least-sacked starter in the NFL, being sacked on just 2.4 percent of his dropbacks. Bills starter Tyrod Taylor is third-most sacked at a whopping 10.2 percent—more than four times as often as Fitzpatrick.

Biggest Mismatch

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Expert Consensus Pick: Carolina Panthers pass defense/Josh Norman vs. Tennessee Titans offense/receivers/Marcus Mariota—four votes

Our panelists saw a lot of mismatches this week, but one came out on top: the Panthers pass defense, led by breakout superstar cornerback Josh Norman, against rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans.

Mariota's playing well, of course; his four-touchdown Week 9 performance was a flash of the surpassing talent that got him drafted No. 2 overall. But the Panthers have humbled far more accomplished quarterbacks, including Aaron Rodgers.

If Rodgers' Packers are poor in weapons, Mariota's Titans are absolutely destitute. Though the Kansas City Chiefs offense is sure to struggle against the Denver Broncos' top-ranked defense, as two of our voters pointed out, the Titans have an even bigger mountain to climb.

Others receiving votes: Denver Broncos defense/secondary vs. Andy Reid/Kansas City Chiefs offense—two votes; Pittsburgh Steelers run game vs. Cleveland Browns run defense; New Orleans Saints receivers vs. Washington secondary

Sleeper QB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick (tie): Shaun Hill/Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings—four votes

Our experts have to turn in their nominations before the midweek injury reports are released, so some voted for Minnesota Vikings backup quarterback Shaun Hill while others selected starter Teddy Bridgewater.

Either way, the Vikings' matchup against the Oakland Raiders is too tempting to ignore. Ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yardage allowed per game, the Raiders defense is sure to give whoever starts under center for the Vikings a lot of opportunities to make plays.

Per Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Bridgewater fortunately cleared the NFL's concussion protocol and practiced fully Wednesday; he should be available to start.

Right behind the Vikings quarterbacks, though, was Nick Foles. The St. Louis Rams starter got the nod from three of our experts, as he and newly signed receiver Wes Welker will take on the Chicago Bears. But while the Bears rank 27th in scoring defense, their secondary is actually allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards in the NFL.

Others receiving votes: Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams—three votes; Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

More Passing Yards: Carson Palmer or Russell Wilson?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Carson Palmer—seven votes

In case you forgot during their mutual bye week, Palmer and his Arizona Cardinals are on a mission to dethrone Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. At 6-2 and on a two-game win streak, the Cardinals are two games ahead of the Seahawks and threatening to pull away in the NFC West.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are up against it at 4-4. Should they lose to the Cardinals, not only will they be three games back, they'll be behind in the head-to-head and divisional tiebreakers.

Palmer's 298.3 yards-per-game average is sixth-best in the NFL, and 63.5 yards more than Wilson's average. Seven of our NFL experts viewed this as an open-and-shut case. Yet, NFL Analyst Ty Schalter notes the Seahawks are allowing just 186.4 passing yards per game, second-fewest in the NFL. The Cardinals secondary is no slouch either, but the Seahawks will be gunning to win—and Wilson may have to play catch-up.

Others receiving votes: Russell Wilson

More Turnovers—Johnny Manziel or Landry Jones?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Johnny Manziel—five votes

Manziel hasn't clearly earned the starting job yet, based on Browns head coach Mike Pettine's comments during and after Manziel's Thursday Night Football start against the Bengals in Week 9. Yet, per Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal, nominal starter Josh McCown is only "more optimistic" about his health this week than last.

Our panelists presumed Manziel would get the start—and that, having kept the ball out of the hands of Bengals defenders, would be due to cough it up again once he faces the surprisingly good Steelers defense.

The two defenses are ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, in opponents' per-drive turnover rate, per Pro Football Reference, so that leaves Jones and Manziel in a one-on-one race to the bottom.

Though the majority of our experts went with Manziel, Jones has also thrown two picks and fumbled once in one start and two relief appearances this season; the three-person minority has no less strong a case.

Others receiving votes: Landry Jones—three votes

Sleeper RB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick (tie): Joique Bell, Detroit Lions; Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers—two votes

In the always-hotly contested Sleeper RB Performance category, our experts split between two backs facing each other: the Lions' Joique Bell and the Packers' Eddie Lacy.

At the beginning of the year, Lacy might not have been accepted as a nomination in this category. He's been one of the league's most consistent (and productive) tailbacks since entering the league in 2013. Yet this season he's been strangely unproductive; Lacy ranks just 38th in rushing yards going into Week 10.

As befits the matchup our panelists named in the Biggest Blowout slide, a lot of rushing yards for a disappointing starter is a perfectly logical fit.

Bell is coming from the opposite direction: He's averaged 7.7 yards per carry over the Lions' last two games, but as they were outscored 73-29 in those two games, he only received 10 carries.

Will the Lions try to restore balance to their offense by getting it to a resurgent Bell early and often? Two of our panelists think so.

Others receiving votes: Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins; Alfred Blue, Houston Texans; Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens; Jordan Todman, Pittsburgh Steelers

Sleeper WR Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints—four votes

Willie Snead is one of the best untold stories of the NFL. The undrafted free agent has not only found a roster spot in New Orleans, but he's also become a vital cog in the Saints offensive machine.

With the Saints going up against Washington's porous secondary, it's no wonder four of our experts tabbed Snead to have a big day through the air. Snead has been pushing heralded second-year first-round pick Brandin Cooks for reps and targets; maybe this week he can establish himself a little higher up the pecking order.

Two of our experts, mindful of the Vikings' matchup against the league's softest pass defense, went with budding route-runner Charles Johnson. He has caught a pass of 21 yards or longer in each of the past three games, though it's worth mentioning those were his only three catches in that stretch. Against the Raiders, though, the Vikings are sure to put up yards and points—and Johnson seems well-positioned to make a huge play (or two, or three).

Others receiving votes: Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings—two votes; Rishard Matthews, Miami Dolphins; Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots

Sleeper TE Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions—three votes

The Lions and Packers often get into shootouts—remember the Matt Flynn game?—and when they don't, there's usually a dramatic finish involved.

With the Packers' two best linebackers both at their best when rushing the passer, Ebron could factor heavily into the Lions game plan—and if the Packers secondary takes away Calvin Johnson, Ebron could be Stafford's emergency fallback. 

Tom Brady's playing so well, and loves his tight ends so much, that even his No. 2 tight end is a better option than a lot of teams' starters. Going up against the New York Giants, who have the NFL's second-worst passing yardage defense, is great for Scott Chandler (and any fantasy owners desperate to cover their tight end's injury or bye week).

Others receiving votes: Scott Chandler, New England Patriots—two votes; Owen Daniels, Denver Broncos; Jermaine Gresham, Arizona Cardinals; Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

Best Defensive Performance

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Expert Consensus Pick: Carolina Panthers—five votes

Once again, the nasty Panthers defense (and its matchup against the Titans offense) has our experts enthralled. Five picked the Panthers to turn in the best defensive performance this Sunday.

With All-Pro middle linebacker Luke Kuechly having recovered from the ankle injury he suffered against the Packers, Mariota and company should have an especially hard time moving the ball.

In an interesting vote, Lead Writer Mike Tanier went with the Arizona Cardinals. In their enormous divisional matchup against the Seahawks, where a win could all but seal the division and a loss could make it anybody's race, Tanier likes the Cardinals to clamp down on the struggling NFC champions.

Two other votes went to the Broncos, who have been playing dominant defense this season from the moment toe met leather.

Others receiving votes: Denver Broncos—two votes; Arizona Cardinals

Over/Under: 7 Total Broncos-Chiefs Sacks

Expert Consensus Pick: Under—five votes

This is truly a heavyweight fight: DeMarcus Ware and the Broncos defense against Justin Houston and the Chiefs.

Ware's 6.5 sacks lead the Broncos, but that unit is anything but a one-man show. The Broncos have notched an NFL-best 30 sacks on the season, with pressure coming from everywhere. Houston's 5.5 sacks aren't far behind, and the Chiefs' total of 21 sacks is tied for ninth.

Peyton Manning has traditionally been tricky to sack, and he's a little more human this year—but not much more so. He's in a four-way tie for the sixth-lowest sack rate, per Pro Football Reference, at 4.1 percent. Even though Alex Smith's sack rate is much, much higher, the Chiefs will still need to get to Manning at least twice for there to be eight total sacks in the game, and he's only been sacked 13 times in eight games.

That's why five of our experts took the under—though it's worth pointing out three of our experts took the over and none picked push. 

Others receiving votes: Over—three votes

Flop of the Week

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Expert Consensus Pick (tie): Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions; Landry Jones/every Steeler except Antonio Brown—two votes

The Flop of the Week is a difficult choice for our experts. It's never fun to criticize a player for something he hasn't even done yet, and just how hard does a player have to flop to be a capital-F Flop of the Week?

Two of our voters think Stafford will flop pretty hard against the Packers; it's an easy conclusion to reach given his (and the Lions') track record there.

Two of our voters expect Jones, the out-of-nowhere Steelers backup, to flop hard against a Cleveland Browns defense that has a couple of playmakers in the secondary.

If both put up a similar performance, though, it's Stafford who'll take the award. When an undrafted free-agent backup fails, nobody's surprised. When a former No. 1 overall pick in his seventh year flops hard, that's a stunner—and a strike that will surely count against Stafford during the year-end evaluation that may send him packing.

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys defense; Eli Manning, New York Giants; Charcandrick West, Kansas City Chiefs; Antonio Andrews, Tennessee Titans