Fantasy Football Week 3: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

With Week 3 of the NFL season—and fantasy football season—on the horizon, it’s time to once again take a look at some of the advanced stats and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

Andrew Luck has disappointed in back-to-back games, but he finds himself ranked third heading into Week 3. What kind of production can you expect from him, and what do the stats say about his rocky start?

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell also returns to the field this week, and he should be a top-three back right off the bat. This article digs up some interesting stats and metrics about Bell (from 2014) and from the Steelers offense (from 2015) to get you ready for his debut. 

Additionally, you'll find information on why Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson is a must-start in all formats in Week 3.

Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks: Tom Brady Set for Another Huge Game

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Tom Brady

Aaron Rodgers tops the quarterback rankings for Week 3, but Tom Brady’s matchup against the Jaguars means he could be in for his third straight monster game to start the season. Luck will look to bounce back against the Tennessee Titans, and Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks should have no problem taking it to the Chicago Bears.

The Projections 

1. Aaron Rodgers (vs. KC): 22-of-34, 306 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.2 fantasy points
2. Tom Brady (vs. JAX): 20-of-28, 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—24.2 fantasy points
3. Andrew Luck (at TEN): 25-of-41, 287 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interceptions—21.5 fantasy points
4. Russell Wilson (vs. CHI): 19-of-26, 246 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 35 rushing YDS—21.3 fantasy points
5. Ben Roethlisberger (at STL): 25-of-37, 294 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interceptions—19.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Blake Bortles is a sneaky streaming quarterback option who provides QB1 upside this week. He plays against the New England Patriots, a team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com. 

Cam Newton is a must-start in Week 3. He plays against the New Orleans Saints, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season and are one of only six teams to have given up a rushing score to opposing quarterbacks—Newton’s specialty.

The Denver Broncos have given up only 133.5 passing yards per game so far this season. No other team has held opposing quarterbacks to under 150 yards, and only three other teams are averaging under 200 passing yards per game allowed. You should show Denver's next opponent, Matthew Stafford, the bench this week.

What the Metrics Say

Per Pro Football Focus, Carson Palmer is currently scoring 0.83 points per dropback, tops in the league among quarterbacks by a wide margin.

Rodgers may have lost Jordy Nelson for the season, but his current stable of wide receivers isn't letting him down. He’s one of only three quarterbacks to not have suffered a drop so far this season (the others are Alex Smith and Peyton Manning).

Luck needs to be more accurate with his passes if he wants to get out of his current slump. He ranks last in the league with an accuracy rate of just 59.3 percent.

Ben Roethlisberger has 406 yards on deep passes (passes thrown 20-plus yards down the field). No other quarterback has over 200 yards on such throws.

Running Backs: Le’Veon Bell Returns to Action as Top-3 Option

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Le'Veon Bell

Marshawn Lynch is due for a big game—and who better to feast on than the Chicago Bears, a team that ranks in the bottom 10 in fantasy points given up to running backs so far this season? That’s according to ESPN.com data, which also reveals the St. Louis Rams have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs so far this year. That’s good news for Le’Veon Bell, who returns from suspension in Week 3.

The Projections 

1. Marshawn Lynch (vs. CHI): 20 carries, 129 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 31 yards—28 fantasy points
2. Adrian Peterson (vs. SD): 22 carries, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions, 47 yards—27.9 fantasy points
3. Le’Veon Bell (at STL): 19 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdown; 6 receptions, 65 yards, 1 touchdown—27.8 fantasy points
4. Jamaal Charles (at GB): 15 carries, 84 yards, 2 touchdowns; 4 receptions, 43 yards—24.7 fantasy points
5. Matt Forte (at SEA): 16 carries, 74 yards, 1 touchdown; 7 receptions, 51 yards, 1 touchdown—24.5 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Ameer Abdullah was stuffed last week, carrying the ball six times for just nine yards. That includes one carry that went for seven yards, which means his other five carries netted just two yards. There's a silver lining, however: Abdullah led the team in carries and had more attempts than Joique Bell and Theo Riddick combined. Let's not overreact to one bad game for Abdullah, especially because it was a bad game for the Detroit Lions rushing attack as a whole.

Lamar Miller carried the ball only 10 times for 14 yards in Week 2, but don't fret. The Miami Dolphins passed the ball 44 times last week but averaged about 37 passes per game in 2015. In other words, the Dolphins should be a little more balanced most weeks. And while it’s fair to do a double take at Miller’s 1.4 YPC average in Week 2, remember that he averaged 4.1 YPC in Week 1 and 5.1 YPC in 2014 as a whole. It’s too early in the season to worry about Miller.

Doug Martin seems due for a touchdown—he hasn’t scored despite his 32 carries and respectable 4.1 YPC average so far this season—but he might have to wait to find the end zone. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play against J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans in Week 3, a team that has yet to give up a rushing touchdown to opposing running backs.

What the Metrics Say

DeAngelo Williams is currently the highest-scoring running back in both standard and PPR leagues. In comes Le’Veon Bell, who was second in standard and first in PPR leagues in 2014 as a whole. Bell should have no problem being near the top again in 2015. 

Williams has averaged four missed tackles forced per game so far this season and is averaging 2.66 yards after initial contact. Last season, Bell forced nearly three-and-a-half missed tackles per game while averaging 2.44 yards after initial contact. Those numbers are eerily similar. 

Giovani Bernard has averaged 3.71 yards after initial contact—tops in the league, per Pro Football Focus. He doesn’t need many touches do to his damage.

Darren Sproles is as efficient as ever in the passing game. He has averaged 3.30 yards per pass route run so far this season, most among all running backs. In fact, only Antonio Brown (4.90), Julio Jones (3.68) and Larry Fitzgerald (3.43) are averaging more yards per route run than Sproles.

Wide Receivers: Randall Cobb Continues to Eat Up Green Bay’s Targets

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Randall Cobb

There’s no removing Antonio Brown and Julio Jones from the top two spots, but Green Bay’s Randall Cobb creeps up the rankings to secure the No. 4 spot. A.J. Green also cracks the top five, as does Demaryius Thomas, who will be looking to score his first touchdown of the season in Week 3.

The Projections 

1. Antonio Brown (at STL): 8 receptions, 113 yards, 2 touchdowns—23.3 fantasy points
2. Julio Jones (at DAL): 10 receptions, 139 yards, 1 touchdown—19.9 fantasy points
3. Demaryius Thomas (at DET): 7 receptions, 101 yards, 1 touchdown—16.1 fantasy points
4. Randall Cobb (vs. KC): 8 receptions, 88 yards, 1 touchdown—14.8 fantasy points
5. A.J. Green (at BAL): 6 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown—14.2 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Brown had nearly identical stat lines in Weeks 1 and 2. He caught nine of 11 targets and scored in both games. He was more successful in the yardage department in Week 2, however, as he racked up 195 yards (compared to 133 yards in Week 1). Brown is as consistent as they come. 

Cobb ranks No. 4 this week with his matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season, per ESPN.com. They have also given up the most receptions (41) to wideouts, which makes Cobb even more valuable in PPR leagues.

Cobb had 11 targets in Week 2. No other Packers receiver had more than five targets.

Allen Robinson is in for another big game, as the Patriots have given up the third-most points to opposing wideouts so far this season. Additionally, the Jaguars figure to be down in this game and could be playing catchup by passing the ball a lot late in the game. Robinson is a must-start.

What the Metrics Say

Travis Benjamin should not be trusted in your fantasy lineup. He blew up last week with three catches for 115 yards and two scores, but he ran only nine pass routes. That type of production is unsustainable. 

Three passes thrown Andre Johnson's way have been intercepted so far this season. Only three passes thrown his way were intercepted in all of 2014.

Exactly half (five) of Sammy Watkins’ targets so far this season have been 20-plus yards down the field, but only one of those targets led to a reception. The Buffalo Bills may look to rein in the former first-round pick in the coming weeks to get more production out of him.

Tight Ends: Tyler Eifert Slips into the Top 5

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Tyler Eifert

Rob Gronkowski is a fixture at No. 1, but after him, it’s a wide-open field for the No. 2 spot among tight ends. After one week of football, it appeared Jimmy Graham would resume his place as a top-two fantasy tight end. But then the Seahawks barely used him in Week 2, so it was back to the drawing board for fantasy rankings. Graham remains in the top five for now, however. Tyler Eifert also makes his way into the top five after scoring three touchdowns in the first two games of the season.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (vs. JAX): 6 receptions, 89 yards, 1 touchdown—14.9 fantasy points
2. Travis Kelce (at GB): 5 receptions, 73 yards, 1 touchdown—13.3 fantasy points
3. Greg Olsen (vs. NO): 7 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown—12.4 fantasy points
4. Jimmy Graham (vs. CHI): 5 receptions, 61 yards, 1 touchdown—12.1 fantasy points
5. Tyler Eifert (at BAL): 6 receptions, 91 yards, 0 touchdowns—9.1 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Despite their strong defense, the Seahawks have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season, per ESPN.com. Chicago’s Martellus Bennett remains a strong start. 

The New York Jets have given up only six receptions for 65 yards and no touchdowns to tight ends so far this year. In fact, the Indianapolis Colts’ tight end duo of Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen failed to record a single catch in Week 2 against the Jets. Up next: Zach Ertz, who should remain on your bench for at least one more week.

The Jaguars have done a decent job against opposing teams' No. 1 tight ends to start the season. They held Greg Olsen to just one catch for 11 yards in the season opener and gave up 62 yards on three receptions to Jordan Cameron in Week 2 (Cameron left the game early with an injury).

While Cameron had some success, neither he nor Olsen dominated from a fantasy perspective against the Jaguars. But Jacksonville faces its toughest assignment yet in Week 3, as it will look to contain Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots.

What the Metrics Say

Eifert is averaging 2.68 yards per route run in 2015, tied with Jordan Reed (who has played one more game than him) for most among tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is third with 2.46 yards per route run.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins has scored nearly one fantasy point every three snaps so far this season, per Pro Football Focus data. That makes him the second-most efficient tight end in the league. ESPN.com notes that he’ll miss the next four to six weeks with a shoulder injury. If anybody in your league drops the budding star, scoop him up if you have the roster space. 

Travis Kelce is one of the best in the league at running with the ball after the catch. He’s averaging 8.4 YAC so far this season, second among all tight ends with at least 10 targets (behind Seferian-Jenkins). Kelce was first in this department among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2014 as well (with an average of 7.5).

Kickers: Adam Vinatieri Faces Odd Matchup

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Adam Vinatieri

New England’s Stephen Gostkowski assumes the No. 1 spot with the Patriots taking on the Jaguars, and Atlanta’s Matt Bryant checks in at No. 4, as he gets a dome game despite playing on the road.

The Projections 

1. Stephen Gostkowski (vs. JAX): 2-2 field goals, 4-4 extra points—10 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (vs. CHI): 2-2 field goals, 3-3 extra points—9 fantasy points
3. Justin Tucker (vs. CIN): 2-2 field goals, 3-3 extra points—9 fantasy points
4. Matt Bryant (at DAL): 2-2 field goals, 2-2 extra points—8 fantasy points
5. Mason Crosby (vs. KC): 1-1 field goals, 4-4 extra points—7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

A total of 11 field goals from the 40-49 range have been missed so far this season, according to ESPN.com. More than a third of those misses have come against the Patriots and the Jaguars (each team's opponents have missed two field goals from that range). New England and Jacksonville play against each other in Week 3. Will the trend continue?

A kicker has yet to attempt a field goal against the Tennessee Titans. Every other team in the league has had at least one field-goal attempt against it. Adam Vinatieri plays against the Titans next. Ultimately, this stat may not mean anything, but if Vinatieri goes the entire game without attempting a field goal, this could be the start of an odd trend.

The Bears have had only one field-goal attempt against them this season—tied for second-fewest in the league with a handful of other teams—but they’ve also had 11 extra-point attempts against them. No other team in the league has had more than eight extra-point attempts against so far.

Defense and Special Teams: Denver a Strong Stream Option

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

The Seahawks are hosting Jimmy Clausen at home. Has there ever been a more obvious choice for No. 1 D/ST of the week? The Texans rank No. 2 with their matchup against the Jameis Winston-led Buccaneers, and Denver is the best stream option of the week as it squares off against Matthew Stafford and the Lions.

The Projections

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. CHI): 14 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
2. Houston Texans (vs. TB): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
3. Denver Broncos (at DET): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 4 sacks
4. Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks
5. New England Patriots (vs. JAX): 17 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks

Stats to Know

The Denver D/ST has scored 39 fantasy points over the first two weeks of the season. Next up is Detroit, a team that has turned the ball over five times in two games. The Broncos will get a chance to score a defensive touchdown in three straight games.

The Buccaneers had an impressive win over the Saints in Week 2, but they are still one of the best options when it comes to finding a D/ST to stream (meaning choosing the D/ST that plays against Tampa Bay—in Week 3, that's the Texans). Through two weeks, the Buccaneers have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs, per ESPN.com.

Believe it or not, the Seahawks have yet to intercept a pass this season. That will undoubtedly change when they host Clausen and the Bears in Week 3.