Daily Fantasy Football 2015: Predicting Top DraftKings Wide Receiver Projections

Slowly but surely, wide receivers are shoving running backs aside as fantasy football's most valuable commodity.

Gone are the days when yearly drafters start the proceedings by grabbing two or three running backs. The safety valve of touches raised rushers above their peers, but an influx of star wideouts are consistently dominating a pass-happy NFL.

A traditional draft will likely still open with backs, but DraftKings doesn't value them over elite pass-catchers. The highest-priced Week 1 rusher at $7,800, Jamaal Charles costs less than nine receivers, led by Julio Jones ($9,300) against the Philadelphia Eagles.

While the position also offers several high-upside values on a weekly basis, daily fantasy players won't want to ignore the superstar wideouts. Get familiar with the top studs, who will prove worth every penny when afforded a positive matchup. 

Scoring

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Before projecting the season's top wide receivers, it helps to know how they're scored. Per DraftKings.com, here's a look at the site's official point distribution:

• 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
• Reception = +1PT
• Receiving TD = +6PTs
• 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
• Punt/Kickoff Return for TD = +6PTs
• Fumble Lost = -1PT
• 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

The most important takeaway: DraftKings rewards a full point per reception. Daily players can't forget that when filling out a lineup, as consistent catchers such as Andre Johnson, Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry gain ground over all-or-nothing deep threats (e.g. Torrey Smith and DeSean Jackson).

1. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

In Week 5, Antonio Brown corralled five receptions for 84 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gamers want more than 13.4 points from a No. 1 wideout, but the solid performance hardly derailed anyone's week.

That was his lowest output of the year.

Leading everyone with 129 receptions on 182 targets, Brown gave fantasy owners and the Pittsburgh Steelers significant results on a weekly basis. He caught at least five passes every game, surpassing 70 yards every time and scoring 13 touchdowns. Among the entire player pool, only Odell Beckham Jr. (26.4) averaged more DraftKings points per game than Brown (25.7), 2015's most prolific overall scorer.

Skeptics may worry about a 5"10", 186-pound talent finding the end zone another 13 times. If he regresses to 2014's eight-touchdown tally, he reverts into a low-level No. 1 rather than the premier option.

But looks are much more stable than scores. Trust the guy who led the way in Effective Yards and Defensive-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), per Football Outsiders. 

Projections: 120 RECs, 1,575 YDs, 11 TDs (22.9 DK PPG)

2. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Before panicking early in the season, remember Demaryius Thomas' rocky start and swift revival. After exiting September with 141 yards through three games, he averaged 113.7 yards per game the rest of the regular season. The Denver Broncos star left little evidence of the rough opening month, finishing the season with 111 receptions on 184 targets for 1,619 yards and 11 touchdowns.

While a lackadaisical finish has jeopardized Peyton Manning's 2015 stock, Thomas didn't get dragged down alongside his partner. Even as Denver emphasized the rushing attack, he received 85 targets over the last seven games, including an underwhelming playoff defeat where he still managed 59 yards and a score.

The offense will likely keep pounding the rock under new head coach Gary Kubiak, but Thomas isn't concerned. As he told the Denver Post's Nicki Jhabvala, a forceful ground game will only make his job easier.

“It’s going to leave me one-on-one and probably open down the field a lot,” he said. “When everybody was saying they’re going to run the ball, I’m like, ‘I’m fine with that.'”

Thomas, priced $9,100 to start the season, begins the campaign against a Baltimore Ravens defense that relinquished the most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers in 2014. Averaging 98 receptions, 1,494 yards and 11 touchdowns per season since teaming up with Manning, he's one of safest star wideouts around.

Projections: 100 RECs, 1,500 YDs, 12 TDs, 21.6 DK PPG

3. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Julio Jones evolved into the transcendent beast everybody knew he could be, setting career highs with 104 receptions and 1,593 receiving yards last season. Both marks placed third behind Brown and Thomas, but he lagged behind the duo with only six touchdowns.

He's a 6'3" monster with tremendous hops and the ability to make circus catches in traffic. Matt Ryan also made ample use of him as a deep threat. According to Pro Football Focus, he tied Mike Evans for an NFL-high 18 catches on balls thrown 20 or more yards downfield, converting half of such targets. 

Jones turned four of those long strikes into four touchdowns while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie converted seven into scores. This isn't a chronic problem for the 2011 first-round pick, who crossed the pylon 10 times during 2013, the only time he played all 16 games.

Only Drew Brees attempted more passes (659) than Ryan (628) last year, giving Jones plenty of opportunities to hit double-digit scores. Also working in his favor, he again gets a pair of matchups each against the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whom he shredded for a combined 503 yards through four games last year. 

If the NFC South doesn't help enough, Atlanta aligns against the NFC East this season, and all four teams allowed 7.5 yards per attempt or more in 2014. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he finishes as the No. 1 wideout.

Projections: 95 RECs, 1,500 YDs, 11 TDs (20.8 DK PPG)

4. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Dez Bryant probably won't score 16 touchdowns again, and that's just fine. He has proven a resounding red-zone target with a dozen scores in 2012 and 13 the following year, so a slight regression to the mean doesn't hinder his status as an elite option.

For all the talk of the Dallas Cowboys star as a polarizing figure, he's remarkably consistent on a macro level. He hasn't missed a game in three years, collecting 88-93 grabs every season in the 1,200-1,400 receiving-yard range. 

While DFS players can feel good about using Brown or Thomas most weeks, Bryant requires more caution. Including the postseason but not counting his "dropped" catch against the Green Bay Packers, he caught four or fewer passes in half of his 19 games.

But he also obliterated the NFC East with regularity, amassing 553 yards and eight touchdowns in all six inner-division games. He starts the season at $8,700 against the New York Giants before receiving three golden matchups versus the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.

Expect a monster start from Bryant, whose price will then soar out of hand for a tougher Week 5 tilt with the New England Patriots.

Projections: 92 RECs, 1,350 YDs, 13 TDs (20.1 DK PPG)

5. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Following his astronomical debut, some readers will see Odell Beckham Jr. at No. 5 at heresy. Others will call it a callous overreaction to place him above established studs after a dozen games.

Prorate his rookie campaign into a rookie season, and you get 121 receptions, 1,740 yards and 16 touchdowns. Upon getting his feet wet, he was Brown-level dependable, with at least six catches and 90 yards in each of his final nine games.

Further supporting his breakout, his 2.74 yards per route rated third among all receivers, per Pro Football Focus. He also finished third on the site's overall ratings despite delaying his debut to Week 5. Once he arrived, nobody in the NFL produced more DraftKings points per game (26.4), explaining his $9,200 price to open the season.

The case against Beckham is simple: A 22-year-old with hamstring issues last year is far riskier than peers who have delivered for years. He brandishes the highest ceiling but also the lowest floor. Besides, with some natural regression, he could easily finish outside the top-five fantasy wideouts despite enjoying a stellar sophomore season.

In daily, this is less of an issue. If he gets hurt, players look elsewhere. If he slumps, the market will eventually reflect that. Since Thomas and Jones have such vulnerable Week 1 opponents, start the season elsewhere and see if Dallas finds any weaknesses in the guy who did this when they last met. 

Projections: 95 RECs, 1,425 YDs, 10 TDs (20.0 DK PPG)

6. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Jordy Nelson did nothing to fall outside the top five. The 30-year-old followed Aaron Rodgers into stardom last season, torpedoing career highs with 98 catches and 1,519 receiving yards.  

To be fair, everyone after Brown and Thomas fall in the same tier. In standard drafts, they'll get grouped together in the late first round or early second round. For daily purposes, it's all about finding the one with the best matchup that week.

Interestingly enough, Nelson ($8,400) falls far below the flashier names on Week 1 despite getting the Chicago Bears, against whom he delivered a pair of 100-yard, two-touchdown games last season. 

Maybe that's why he was such a popular DraftKings pick last year. According to DraftKings Playbook's Ethan Haskell, he was the most-used player in guaranteed prize pools (GPP) and third-most in cash contests. Most Nelson backers did not leave disappointed, as their 61 percent cash rate when employing him in head-to-head and 50-50 bouts placed second among wide receiver behind Beckham, who was drastically under-priced for most of his breakout.

The Green Bay Packers have a lot of mouths to feed, especially if Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers leap into the limelight. Nelson may struggle to receive another 150 targets, but the world's best quarterback will make their connections count.

Projections: 93 RECs, 1,380 YDs, 11 TDs (19.9 DK PPG)

7. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Calvin Johnson is still awesome, but he has displayed enough mortality to fall near the bottom of a stacked tier.

A down year for Megatron constitutes 71 catches, 1,077 yards and eight touchdowns over 13 games. Extrapolated to 16 games, that's 87 receptions and 1,325 yards. Great, but that doesn't gravitate him over the crop of fellow studs.

His 18.2 DraftKings points per game placed ninth among wideouts, but that includes a seven-yard effort he left early with an ankle injury. Based on Weeks 1's $8,500 price tag against the San Diego Chargers, he's not going to come discounted.

Only running backs seem to get punished for age, but he'll turn 30 in September during his ninth NFL season. The top five are all embarking on their peak, and Nelson didn't receive regular reps early in his career. Nobody can stay on top forever, especially when health interferes.

Projections: 87 RECs, 1,440 YDs, 11 TDs (19.8 DK PPG)

Pricing information and scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com.

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